Saturday 10 June 2017

Non-Brits: here's what you need to know about the British election

Extract from The Guardian


A quick recap of how Theresa May’s gamble in calling an election to firm up support for Brexit backfired – and what it means going forward
How the 2017 election night unfolded … in 3 minutes

Paul Owen
Saturday 10 June 2017 01.55 AEST Last modified on Saturday 10 June 2017 05.20 AEST

The British prime minister Theresa May’s gamble in calling an early election spectacularly failed on Thursday night, when she lost her majority in parliament and was forced to turn to a deal with a smaller party to stay in power.
May’s attempt to forge a deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party does not put Brexit in doubt, although negotiations – due to start within days – may now be even more complex and less predictable.
The prime minister went to see the Queen on Friday to confirm that she would form a government and that she was seeking a deal with the DUP, following extensive talks through the night with the unionists, the largest Northern Irish party in favour of British rule in the country.
“I will now form a government, a government that can provide certainty and lead Britain forward at this critical time for our country,” she said.
“This government will guide the country through the crucial Brexit talks that begin in just 10 days and deliver on the will of the British people by taking the United Kingdom out of the European Union.” She added: “We will continue to work with our friends and allies in the Democratic Unionist party in particular.”
 ‘Now let’s get to work’: Theresa May’s Downing Street speech in full - video
May had called the election – which did not need to happen until 2020 – at a time when she was riding high in the polls, and had hoped to increase her small majority of 17 in order, she said, to strengthen her hand in the imminent Brexit talks.
Instead, after a campaign in which she was criticised as dull and robotic and a major policy on social care had to be rewritten on the fly, the prime minister lost 12 seats and her control of parliament, although the Tories remain the biggest party, with 318 MPs, with 649 of 650 seats having declared.
Meanwhile, the leftwing opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn of the Labour party – who had been written off before the campaign as unelectable, extreme and incompetent – saw his personal ratings and those of his party rise, and stunned pundits by gaining 31 seats, giving Labour a total of 261 MPs.
Labour defied the odds to win around 40% of the vote, with the Tories on 42%. Corbyn’s aides said the jump in the party’s share since previous leader Ed Miliband won 30% in 2015 was the largest between two general elections for any party since 1945. It was also higher than the 35.2% won by Labour’s Tony Blair in his third election victory in 2005.
Corbyn’s achievement was credited to a unique alliance of enthused younger voters and previous non-voters combined with some older anti-establishment United Kingdom Independence party (Ukip) voters hit by the Tories’ austere economic policies. Turnout rose about two points from 2015, to 68.7%.
Bernie Sanders – whose galvansing popularity amongst young progressives foreshadowed Corbyn’s surge – said: “I am delighted to see Labour do so well. All over the world, people are rising up against austerity and massive levels of income and wealth inequality.
“People in the UK, the US and elsewhere want governments that represent all the people, not just the 1%. I congratulate Jeremy Corbyn for running a very effective campaign.”
A ferocious campaign from Britain’s rightwing tabloids – culminating in the Daily Mail branding Labour’s leadership “apologists for terror” and the Sun hitting out at “Jezza’s [Corbyn’s] jihadi comrades” – appeared to have been largely ignored by the voters. Two major terrorist attacks during the campaign may have also damaged the Tories more than Labour, in defiance of conventional wisdom.
“I think it’s pretty clear who won this election,” Corbyn told the BBC. “We’re ready to serve the people who have given their trust to us.”
May – whose self-declared reputation as “strong and stable” may now be gone for good – had sounded much less firm overnight. “If the Conservative party has won the most seats and most votes, then it will be incumbent that we will have that period of stability, and that is what we will do,” she said after winning her own seat of Maidenhead, west of London.
Nevertheless, May’s attempt at a deal with the DUP appears to mean she can remain in office, although she seems likely to have been seriously wounded by her strategic blunder in calling an election. A second election is possible if the DUP deal does not come together – and a challenge to her leadership from within her own party cannot be ruled out.
Arlene Foster, the leader of the DUP, confirmed talks about a deal with the Conservatives would take place.
“The union is our guiding star,” she said. “The prime minister has spoken with me this morning and we will enter discussions with the Conservatives to explore how it may be possible to bring stability to our nation at this time of great challenge.”
The shockwaves are only the latest reframing of the UK political landscape. May took office last year after her predecessor David Cameron resigned due to a strategic blunder of his own: his decision to call a referendum on Britain’s membership in the European Union.
Britain’s status within the EU had long split his party, which was coming under serious pressure on the right from the fervently anti-EU Ukip, and Cameron – who personally backed EU membership – had hoped to cauterise the issue. Instead, British voters surprised the world by voting for Brexit.
“Cameron gambled, lost. May gambled, lost,” tweeted Sophia in ’t Veld, a member of the European parliament, overnight. “Tory party beginning to look like a casino.”
It is unclear what, exactly, a new deal between the Conservatives and the DUP will mean for Brexit.
The historically Protestant DUP backs British rule of the province, and one of the party’s key figures, Nigel Dodds, confirmed that its price for a deal with the Tories included a promise that there would be no post-Brexit special status for Northern Ireland. The DUP fears that such special status – a key demand of the Northern Irish nationalist party Sinn Féin, which thinks the province should be part of the Republic of Ireland – would decouple Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.
The DUP backed Brexit last year, but across Northern Ireland, 56% voted to remain in the EU.
Dodds said he was not thinking that the DUP’s 10 MPs would take up cabinet positions in a formal coalition; rather they would agree to support May in votes of confidence and support her budgets.
His party is fiercely opposed to Corbyn, viewing him as having a history of backing Northern Irish republicans and a united Ireland.
Senior Conservatives said pro-Brexit MPs were keen to see May remain in her post to press ahead with negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union. Formal talks must be completed by March 2019.
Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s Brexit representative, said the election outcome would “make already complex negotiations even more complicated. I hope the UK will soon have a stable government to start negotiations. This is not only about the UK, but also about the future of Europe.”
European capitals are thought to have hoped May would win a strong majority, since her government would then feel confident enough to make concessions. Diplomats fear she will now run into difficulty with her own MPs, which will not be a recipe for good talks.
Sterling tumbled as much as 2.5 percentage points on the result while the FTSE share index opened higher. The pound hit an eight-week low against the dollar and its lowest levels in seven months versus the euro.
Senior Conservative sources said recriminations against May were already beginning within her own ranks among cabinet ministers, with the Brexit secretary David Davis, singled out by some of his colleagues for pressing her to gamble on the snap poll. “There are a lot of very, very pissed off people in the cabinet – and with him in particular,” said one.May has cleaved close to Donald Trump since his victory in November, and images of her holding his hand during a trip to the White House were mocked by her opponents and held up as evidence she was unable or unwilling to stand up to the unpopular American president. There were calls during the campaign for a planned state visit by Trump to be cancelled after he attacked the mayor of London over his response to last weekend’s terrorist attack in London Bridge, taking a quote out of context.
But the Tories seem keen to make sure the visit goes ahead and the relationship with the US remains as strong as possible as Britain cuts its ties with the EU.
“A free and independent Britain is a blessing to the world, and our relationship has never been stronger,” Trump told May during that visit to Washington.
But May herself has never looked weaker.
Additional reporting by Rajeev Syal, Henry McDonald, Heather Stewart, Daniel Boffey and Jon Henley

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