Extract from ABC News
So many questions, so little time.After a four-week campaign, Queenslanders are finally off to the polls tomorrow.
There's been plenty said over the past month, and it can be a lot to take in at times.
Thankfully Antony Green is in town, and elections are kind of his thing.
We sit down with the ABC's election analyst on election eve to get his take on how he thinks things will play out on Saturday night.
How tight is this election likely to be?
"It's difficult to tell.
"The first preference vote of both major parties is quite low.
"One Nation is polling well but I don't think One Nation is going to poll well enough to win many seats.
"The flow of One Nation preferences will determine the outcome in the south-east of the state, and if that turns into a general swing towards Labor then Labor is well positioned to be the largest party, if not majority government."
So you think One Nation preferences will ultimately help Labor instead of the LNP?
"The issue isn't so much One Nation preferences, it's where One Nation drew their vote from in the first place.
"I think they're taking their vote largely from the LNP so if those preferences don't flow back strongly, it's a net gain for Labor."
Photo: One Nation leader Senator Pauline Hanson and Queensland leader Steve Dickson are hoping to attract voters fed up with major parties. (AAP: Glenn Hunt)
Can you talk more generally about why people are disenchanted with the two major parties?
"I think there is a disenchantment particularly in north Queensland with the state of the economy, the perception the major parties aren't dealing with the problems of the area and people are prepared to vote for a third party.
"It's a long-standing trend in north Queensland.
"It may not be the fault of the major parties, it may unrealistic expectations from the voters as well but when times are troubled like they are in north Queensland they don't like the government and they don't particularly like the alternative so they vote for somebody else."
Photo: Pauline Hanson gets a selfie with voter Jason Hepplewhite during the campaign trail. (ABC News: Allyson Horn)
Do think Annastacia Palaszczuk's done enough, or may she just scrape through?
There's the impact of federal politics and shifts in the economy are all making it hard for the Government but you suspect they're probably better positioned because they are stronger in the south-east corner and that's not where the One Nation effect is having a big impact on the result.
Photo: Annastacia Palaszczuk is claiming underdog status for the state election, despite some polls suggesting Labor is ahead. (AAP: Dan Peled)
Do you think the Greens will get in in South Brisbane?
"For the Greens to win South Brisbane then the only published opinion poll has to be wrong and LNP voters have to not follow the LNP how-to-vote card otherwise Labor will win the seat easily."
Photo: Queensland Greens leader Amy MacMahon is gunning for Jackie Trad's seat of South Brisbane. (AAP: Regi Varghese)
Do you think there will be a lot of informal votes because people aren't used to filling out all the squares?
"There's no doubt that there will be an increase in informal voting.
"When you have full preferential voting you have people making numbering errors, and the numbering errors are informal.
"Under optional preferential voting a voter has to deliberately cast a vote, which are informal."
Photo: The way we vote in state elections has changed since 2015. (Supplied: Electoral Commission of Queensland)
Do you think people will be turned off by the possibility of having a hung parliament and having One Nation in that?
"The Labor party has been campaigning in south-east Queensland and on the Gold Coast, saying: 'do you want the LNP with One Nation holding the balance of power?'
"So there's the argument of stability in government which is a perennial issue in Queensland politics."
Photo: Former One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts is hoping the people of Ipswich will vote him in on Saturday. (ABC News: Meghna Bali)
So are you saying that you think Labor might get over the line?
"I think it's much more likely Labor will win the election.
"I can't quite see how the LNP can finish with more seats than Labor, and if they can't finish with more seats than Labor it's much harder for them to form government.
"The Labor party starts this election with five to six more notional seats than the LNP, so the LNP needs to gain seats to finish with more seats than Labor.
"If there is a general swing in south-east Queensland, Labor will gain seats, which then means how many seats does Labor lose in north Queensland, and if they're going to lose those seats, are they going to lose them to One Nation or the LNP."