Iran briefing with Matthew Doran: There could be respite for Lebanon despite Netanyahu's latest orders.

 Extract from ABC News

By Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran in Saudi Arabia

• Topic:Unrest, Conflict and War

40 minutes ago

Displaced people stand outside tents used as shelter in Beirut. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

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Hello, ABC Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran here in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

It's the end of day 47 of the war, day eight of the ceasefire (except in Lebanon) and day three of the US-declared blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran war live updates: For the latest news on the Middle East crisis, read our blog

Here's what you need to know today:

• A Hezbollah-affiliated news network in Lebanon said a ceasefire between Israel and the militant group would be announced on Wednesday night, local time. Al Mayadeen reported the ceasefire would last for one week — the remainder of the broader truce between the US, Israel and Iran, which was agreed to a week ago. The Netanyahu government's security cabinet will meet on Wednesday night to consider the issue, but in a video from the Israeli Prime Minister released after the meeting, no truce was announced.
• Al Mayadeen was citing a senior Iranian official saying the ceasefire was a result of pressure from Tehran during negotiations with the United States. Israel's public broadcaster KAN was reporting that it's being considered at the request of the United States. Benjamin Netanyahu said that he had instructed the IDF to continue reinforcing the "security zone" it's created in southern Lebanon — an area where hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have been forcibly displaced from.
• US President Donald Trump has said the war with Iran could "end soon", telling the world to watch out for an "amazing two days." The president has spoken to two US networks, ABC and Fox Business, saying he did not think the temporary ceasefire would need to be extended beyond next week, and the White House rejected reports the US had asked for an extension.
• There are signs that there will be another round of talks between the US and Iran in the next few days, with the Pakistani Army chief arriving in Tehran with a message from the US.
• The US said its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz had been successful in stopping a number of ships passing through. The Wall Street Journal reported that eight Iranian-linked oil tankers had been stopped by the US Navy, while Iran's Fars news agency said one tanker had crossed through. Mr Trump says China is "very happy" the US is trying to reopen the strait, and claimed President Xi Jinping would give him a "big fat hug" when they meet in a few weeks' time.

Here's what all that means

For the past week, since it halted its attacks on Iran, Israel has focused its firepower on Lebanon.

It says it's been attacking claimed Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon and the capital, Beirut.

But those attacks over the past eight days, as they have done through the past six weeks of the war, have killed scores of civilians.

Lebanon's health ministry said the death toll was now 2,167, with 7,061 people injured.

260 women have been killed, and 1,150 have been injured. 172 children have been killed, and 656 have been injured.

On one day, the first day of the ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) killed more than 300 people, many of them women and children — an attack the Lebanese government has complained to the United Nations about.

Those incredibly shocking figures had rattled the White House. Mr Trump had said he had told Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to rein it in.

Now, it appears that pressure may be tipping the balance in favour of a pause in the bloodshed in Lebanon — but it doesn't appear such a deal has been reached just yet.

Hezbollah had continued to attack Israel, in response to its strikes. There was a barrage of 40 rockets fired into northern Israel on Wednesday morning local time alone, according to Israeli authorities.

Hezbollah-affiliated media was saying the prospect of a ceasefire was due to pressure from Tehran. Israeli media was saying it's pressure from Washington.

Either way, it could be a brief respite for the population living in a state of chaos.

We'll wait to see how it plays out in the coming hours — but the early reporting in the Lebanese media that a deal was imminent seemed to be dashed by Mr Netanyahu.

His office released a video roughly an hour after the Israeli security cabinet was due to meet, where he said he'd instructed the IDF to "strengthen" its so-called "security zone" in southern Lebanon.

He said Israeli forces were about to "overwhelm" the town of Bint Jbeil, a "great stronghold of Hezbollah".

They're certainly not the words of a man about to press pause on fighting. But that doesn't mean such an announcement isn't coming soon.

Israel's Channel 12 cited a senior Israeli political source as saying "within a few days, we will have no choice but to fully cease fire in Lebanon".

And while Mr Netanyahu's great friend, Mr Trump suggested the broader ceasefire would hold, the Israeli prime minister sounded more cautious.

"In the face of the possibility that fighting will resume, we are prepared for any scenario."

And this is the impact on Australia

• ABC News Verify: As global oil issues worsen due to the war in Iran, several AI-enhanced platforms claiming to be independently monitoring Australia's fuel supply have appeared online. These fuel supply dashboards claim to know what's really going on. Can you trust them?here's how to stay up to date:

You can keep track of the latest updates from Iran and around the world throughout the day via our live blog.

Thanks for joining me. I'll see you at the same time tomorrow.

Albanese government's frustration rises alongside fuel prices and inflation.

Extract from ABC News

Analysis

By David Speers

• Topic:Government and Politics

6 minutes ago

After initially supporting the US and Israeli strikes against Iran, the prime minister and foreign minister have spent the past few weeks calling for "de-escalation". (ABC News: Stuart Carnegie )

Fuel prices and inflation aren't the only metrics climbing as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut.

The Albanese government's level of frustration is rising just as fast.

Whether it's Donald Trump threatening to wipe out an entire civilisation, posting a Jesus-like image of himself or taking pot-shots at the Pope, there's daily disbelief at what's coming out of the White House.

This general sense of dismay wasn't helped by Trump's Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's tone-deaf response yesterday to the International Monetary Fund's warnings of economic doom.

"A small bit of economic pain" is worth it, Bessent insisted, to deprive Iran of a nuclear weapon.

Nearly seven weeks since the war began, the extent of Iran's nuclear threat and whether indeed it will be completely removed, is just one of the known unknowns.

As is the prospect of a return to free passage through the Strait of Hormuz any time soon.

Whether it's Donald Trump threatening to wipe out an entire civilisation, posting a Jesus-like image of himself or taking pot-shots at the Pope, there's daily disbelief at what's coming out of the White House. (Reuters: Jonathan Ernst)

Australians paying price for war

After initially supporting the US and Israeli strikes against Iran in the hopes this would be a short, sharp operation, the prime minister and foreign minister have spent the past few weeks calling for "de-escalation".

In a coordinated move, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has gone even further this week. He's bluntly calling on Trump to end this war.

"Australians didn't choose the circumstances of the war," Chalmers pointed out before boarding a plane to the United States yesterday, "but they are paying a very hefty price for it".

He certainly doesn't see this as a "small bit" of pain as he faces the difficulty of putting together next month's budget with competing demands for serious reform, spending cuts, and enough support for an unknown but potentially disastrous economic future.

The Treasurer is not alone in trying to dial up the diplomatic pressure for peace.

Chalmers, who joins his counterparts and central bank governors for a lightning round of G20, IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington later today, made his top priority for the visit clear: "The purpose of this trip is to join with other countries continuing to call for an end to this war in the Middle East."

This collective call from stressed finance ministers flying into Washington may be unlikely to sway Trump, but it underscores the mounting strain this war continues to place on US alliances.

Jim Chalmers says it's a 'dangerous and serious time' for the global economy

A blockade no-one wants to join

The naval blockade of Iran is the latest flash point of disagreement.

The president initially said "other countries" would join his blockade, but NATO allies were quick to say no thanks.

The Australian government also appeared to rule out any involvement before any request had even been received.

Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy told Afternoon Briefing on Monday, "we're not considering joining the blockade".

In the days since then, he and other ministers have been less emphatic, leaving some room for consideration, depending on where this unpredictable situation goes.

Strategic analysts are somewhat divided on Trump's latest move. Even critics of the president's war strategy (or lack thereof) like Joe Biden's former national security advisor John Kirby argues the blockade "might be helpful" as a diplomatic tactic.

The signals from the opposition are also somewhat mixed.

Shadow defence minister James Paterson, a whole-hearted supporter of the US alliance, described joining this blockade as "a very grave decision to make".

"I am very cautious and frankly sceptical about whether… it is in our national interest or whether it's within our capability, to join a blockade on Iran," he told 7:30.

"That would be crossing a very significant threshold to effectively be participating in offensive operations against Iran."

His leader Angus Taylor, by contrast, expressed fewer concerns, arguing: "Australia should be providing whatever support we reasonably can to make sure we get the Strait of Hormuz opened up."

China, which took 90 per cent of Iran's oil exports before the war began, has branded the US blockade as "dangerous and irresponsible", sharpening fears about where this conflict heads next.

A boost for defence

Defence Minister Richard Marles has a chance today to explain how the government is navigating the strategic bind this war has created.

He will front the National Press Club to launch the government's latest National Defence Strategy, which includes an extra $14 billion in spending over the next 4 years and $53 billion over the decade.

If Australia were to use the same metrics adopted by NATO, he will argue, this would lift defence spending to approximately 3 per cent of GDP by 2033, a minimum benchmark Trump has demanded of US allies.

Government announces billions in spending on military drones

Defence Minister Richard Marles says expanding Australia's fleet of autonomous and uncrewed systems will help keep the nation safe and boost Australia's sovereign defence industry.

The extra spending on drones and other automated systems will improve Australia's readiness for what lies ahead, Marles will argue.

The harder question is whether it can keep pace with a strategic environment worsening by the month.

The defence minister will note "international norms that once constrained the use of force and military coercion continue to erode". He doesn't mention Trump in this context. He doesn't have to.

Polls show support for the US alliance has slipped in Australia since the war began. This will only make the government's task of maintaining support for AUKUS even harder.

From immediate financial concerns to longer-term strategic challenges, it's little wonder that ministers' frustration is increasing every week this conflict drags on, even when a ceasefire is meant to be in place.

David Speers is national political lead and host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.

Russia continues aerial assault as Ukraine spruiks drone advantage to allies.

 Extract from ABC News

• Topic:Unrest, Conflict and War

15 minutes ago

Russia is continuing to launch near-daily drone and missile assaults on Ukrainian towns and cities. (AP: Kateryna Klochko)

In short:

Western officials and analysts say Ukrainian forces have disrupted Russia's planned spring offensive and managed to retake territory.

But there has been no let up in Russia's strikes on Ukraine's cities and towns, with the latest strikes killing an eight-year-old boy on Tuesday.

What's next?

Fifty defence ministers have met to pledge more military support to Ukraine, with the UK alone sending 120,000 drones to the country.

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The defence leaders of more than 50 countries say they are aiming to send more aid to Ukraine as the country attempts to capitalise on new battlefield momentum.

After more than four years of fighting Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine possesses battle-tested drone interceptor expertise and has developed groundbreaking air defence technology, but it lacks the money to scale up production to levels that would press its advantage.

Between November last year and March this year, Russia launched more than 27,000 drones at Ukraine.

In the latest strikes on Tuesday and Wednesday, more than six areas of Ukraine behind the front line were hit as Russia launched 324 drones and three ballistic missiles. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 309 of the drones.

The attacks killed an eight-year-old boy in the central Cherkasy region and a woman who was in a kiosk near a bus stop that was hit in southern Zaporizhzhia, according to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and local officials.

Drone attacks destroyed this public transport stop in Zaporizhzhia on Wednesday. (AP: Kateryna Klochko)

"Every day we need air defence missiles — every day Russia continues its strikes," Mr Zelenskyy said in a post on the Telegram messaging app.

Mr Zelenskyy is also championing joint weapons production agreements, including for drones and missiles, while pushing for the European Union to move quickly on providing a promised 90 billion euro ($148 billion) loan.

Russian spring-time offensive disrupted by Ukrainian drones

Defence leaders from about 50 nations who regularly gather to coordinate weapons aid for Kyiv held an online meeting on Wednesday, local time, chaired by German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and British Defence Secretary John Healey. 

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte also attended.

Among those committing to the European nation's defence is Britain, which announced it will send 120,000 drones to Ukraine this year.

Ukraine's war effort has gained momentum in recent weeks, according to Western officials and analysts. 

Ukraine is establishing itself as a leader in drone war and air defences as its war with Russia continues. (Reuters:Stringer)

Its short-handed troops have disrupted Russia's spring offensive, thanks in part to drones and ground robots, and its long-range strikes have dented Russian oil exports and some manufacturing output.

Ukraine’s top military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Wednesday that last month Ukrainian troops recaptured nearly 50 square kilometres of territory from Russian forces. 

Also in March, Ukrainian deep strike operations hit 76 Russian targets, including 15 oil refining facilities, he said.

'Cannot lose sight of Ukraine'

Despite those gains, clouds have also gathered as the Iran war drains stockpiles of advanced air defence missiles that Ukraine needs, and Kyiv’s money is running short.

At the meeting of defence ministers in Berlin, NATO chief Mark Rutte called on military alliance members to boost their backing of Ukraine by an extra $US60 billion.

Mr Rutte emphasised that "supporting Ukraine's fight is as important as ever", and said that "too few countries share too much of the burden".

"We cannot lose sight of Ukraine amid the Middle East conflict," he said.

"We have to ensure that we are capable of delivering uninterrupted support for Ukraine."

Mr Zelenskyy complained on Tuesday that US peace negotiators "have no time for Ukraine" amid the Middle East crisis.

James Hansen - Super-Duper El Nino

 

Super-Duper El Nino 15 April 2026 James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Dylan Morgan and Jasen Vest

Abstract. El Ninos have always been important. However, in the context of a warming planet – likely accelerated warming – El Ninos have even greater impact. Moreover, the frequency and nature of El Ninos themselves may be affected by the warming. Media attention to the possibility of an upcoming “Super El Nino” irritates some scientists, given inherent uncertainty in forecasts. We push back gently against that irritation. Predictions in the face of uncertainty are a valuable approach, with the potential to increase our understanding. We take our hats off to ECMWF for their bold prediction. We also suggest an El Nino diagnostic, alternative to the usual diagnostic, that provides an earlier, more meaningful assessment. It is already clear that we will have an El Nino in 2026-27. A little more time is needed to be certain that it will be a Super El Nino, but it looks like it will be a strong one. Let us see what we can learn from it. The figures in this post and our other current papers will be continually updated on our website,[1] when they remain relevant. We are also now on Substack[2].

The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) earlier this year issued a forecast of a strong (“Super”) El Nino to begin later this year and peak in early 2027, as we have discussed in two earlier posts.[3],[4] El Ninos are important because of the large effects that they have on global weather, even though those effects are not always consistent from one El Nino to another. El Ninos have even greater effect in combination with ongoing global warming, e.g., Radfar et al.[5] find that the combination of an El Nino with increasingly prevalent marine heat waves results in tropical cyclones consistently producing higher maximum wind speeds, storm surges, and precipitation rates, and Liu et al.[6] describe evidence of El Ninos strengthened control over global climate anomalies in a warmer world. Reid[7] says that the phrase “Super El Nino” makes Australian climate scientists roll their eyes, and advises ignoring El Nino forecasts made during Australian autumn (Northern Hemisphere spring) – suggesting to wait until the end of autumn or early winter (end of spring or early summer in the Northern Hemisphere) before taking forecasts seriously. Reid concludes: “Will we get an El Nino this year? The only scientifically accurate answer as of April 9, 2026, is ‘maybe.’ It’s way too early to say anything other than that an El Nino is more likely to form this year than a La Nina.”

Fig. 1. Equatorial upper ocean (300 m) heat anomaly (°C) at longitudes 180-100W. This is the 3-month running-mean except March 2026, which is a 1-month value.

Our perspective is different. First, predictions have the potential to increase understanding. If one believes that he/she has the basis for a prediction, we encourage such prediction and a post-mortem that attempts to get at the physics of what went right or wrong in the forecast – and why. ECMWF is recognized as having a good model and top-notch scientists, so we look forward to their analysis of the forecast/reality comparison. There are inherent limitations on predictability caused by chaotic aspects of atmosphere and ocean dynamics, but that cannot account for the huge range among models. It is common to look at the range of model results and treat this as if it were a probability distribution for the real world. It is not. It is simply the fog of results from all models – the good, the bad, and the ugly – and a rather fruitless comparison. What is needed is analysis of the effect of key processes in the better models. Well observed and analyzed events, such as the upcoming El Nino, provide an opportunity to test simulation of key processes. Second, we showed in our earlier communications[3],[4] that the Nino3.4 (sea surface temperature anomaly in an equatorial strip in the Pacific) is an inferior predictor and measure of El Ninos. The heat content of the upper 300 m of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1) is a better measure of El Nino strength; for example, it correctly has the 1997-98 El Nino as the strongest El Nino in the past 50 years, while the Nino3.4 index has the 2015-16 El Nino as stronger. Moreover, the 300 m temperature anomalies are correlated with global temperature change almost as well (53%) as the Nino3.4 index is correlated with global temperature (58%), and the 300 m temperature provides a 4-month longer lead time in its prediction of global temperature change. It is reasonable that the 300 m heat anomaly provides a good indication of future global temperature change and climate change because heat released from this tropical ocean reservoir drives the global warming that occurs with the El Nino. The 300 m temperature already assures that we will have an El Nino in 2026-27. The March average of the 300 m temperature anomaly exceeds +1°C. At that point, it is consistent with either a Super El Nino (Fig. 2a) or an ordinary El Nino (Fig. 2b). However, in the first week of April, the 300 m anomaly reaches +1.6°C (Fig. 3). This increasing heat anomaly is a result of the reinforcing Kelvin wave (Fig. 4, left) traveling from west to east (see the discussion in our prior El Nino post[4]). This Kelvin wave was boosted by recent westerly wind anomalies (Fig. 4, right). We will update these figures on our website[1] at weekly and monthly intervals until the magnitude of the El Nino is clear. Graphs of global temperature and other quantities are available at Data and Figures on that website. Figs 3 and 4 here are from the NOAA webpage,[8] which is updated weekly and includes many other figures and climate information.

Fig. 2. Ongoing 300 m heat compared to (a) Super El Ninos, and (b) moderate El Ninos.

Fig. 3. Nino3.4 and 300m heat anomaly in the past year from NOAA’s weekly update.[8]

Fig. 4. Upper ocean (300 m) ocean heat versus time (vertical axis) and longitude (left graph). Time runs from May 2025 at the top to April 2026 at the bottom. The similar diagram on the right shows equatorial wind anomalies; yellow-red is increased westerlies, blues are easterlies.[8] The western Pacific is on the left side in both graphs.

[1] Our communications (posts) and data are available now via Hansen’s website while we continue to develop and populate our websites and data pages. Figures in communications and papers that remain of current interest will be updated at appropriate intervals, usually monthly, with the most recent date of update indicated on the website. [2] https://jimehansen.substack.com/ [3] Hansen J, Kharecha P, Morgan D, Vest J. Super El Nino? Super warming is the main issue. 20 March 2026 [4] Hansen J, Kharecha P, Morgan D, Vest J. Another El Nino Already? What Can We Learn from It? 06 February 2026 [5] Radfar S, Foroumandi E, Moftakhari H et al. Synergistic impact of marine heat waves and rapid intensification exacerbates tropical cyclone destructive power worldwide. Sci Adv 12, eadu 1733, 10 April 2026 [6] Liu S, Dong L, Song F et al. ENSO’s strengthened control over global climate anomalies in a warmer world. J Clim 39, 2593-607, 2026 [7] Reid K. Why the phrase ‘Super El Nino’ makes Australian climate scientists roll their eyes The Conversation 9 April 2026 [8] The NOAA Climate Prediction Center updates El Nino information every week, normally on Monday. Figures 3 and 4 here were copied from their post on 13 April 2026. The NOAA synopsis report of 9 April 2026 notes that Figs. 3 and 4 use the new base period 1991-2020. Figs. 1 and 2 in our present communication uses the base period 1981-2010. One of the merits of using the upper 300 m to characterize the Nino status is that the upper 300 m is less affected by human-made warming than is Nino3.4. In a future post or paper, we will address the issue of how to minimize the effect of long-term warming in assessments of the Nino status.

Israel-Lebanon peace talks begin but Hezbollah won't be held to any deal. What you need to know on Iran today.

 Extract from ABC News

By Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran in Jerusalem

• Topic:Unrest, Conflict and War

15 minutes ago

A man sits next to wreckage where a building was destroyed by an Israeli air strike last weekin Beirut, Lebanon. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

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Hello, ABC Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran here in Riyadh.

It's the end of day 46 of the war, day seven of the ceasefire (except in Lebanon) and day two of what the US is describing as its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran war live updates: For the latest news on the Middle East crisis, read our blog

Here's what you need to know today:

• The first round of talks between the Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors to the United States has happened in Washington, D.C. — the US State Department is describing them as the first talks of their kind between the two nations in three decades. Israel continued strikes on southern Lebanon, hours before the negotiations began.
• Israel offered to hold talks with Lebanon last week, seemingly buckling to pressure from the Trump administration after hundreds were killed in intense attacks on the country, many of them civilians, as opposed to fighters from the Lebanese militants Hezbollah.
• The Iranian-backed group has demanded the Lebanese government suspend the negotiations, insisting it won't be held to any deal. Israel is also saying the focus is on the disarming of Hezbollah first, before any talks on a ceasefire in Lebanon can be considered.
• China has labelled the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as "dangerous and irresponsible". Beijing is Iran's biggest customer for its oil industry and will be feeling the pinch if any attempt to stop ships moving through the vital channel. It comes as Bloomberg reported Iran was considering a "short-term pause" in shipments through the Strait, in a bid to avoid any confrontation between ships and the US Navy.
• Pakistan's defence minister has been talking up the prospect of further talks between the US and Iran, perhaps as soon as the end of the week. Representatives from both countries remained in Islamabad, after leaders such as US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf left the first round of talks, trying to make progress on the negotiations.

Here's what all that means

Just last week, more than 300 people in Lebanon were killed when Israel said it attacked 100 different sites across the country in the space of just 10 minutes.

Israel insisted it was pursuing Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group that had opened fire on Israel in solidarity with Tehran five weeks earlier.

The number of civilians filling morgues and hospital emergency departments, particularly children killed and maimed in the strikes, marked another shocking point in the conflict.

And, it seemed to even rattle the White House, with Donald Trump telling the Israeli Prime Minister to "low-key it" — in other words, show some restraint.

A day later, Benjamin Netanyahu announced he would be prepared for his country to hold peace talks with the Lebanese government. That was something which Israel had not only rejected but flatly ridiculed weeks earlier.

Its foreign ministry had spent the days prior posting memes on its social media accounts criticising the Lebanese government's weakness and inability to stand up to Hezbollah.

But the pressure from the US president was too much to ignore. And that's why talks between Israel and Lebanon, two countries which have technically been at war for decades, got underway in Washington DC — chaired by the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

As with the talks on the broader Middle East conflict between the US and Iran, anyone expecting a sudden breakthrough and resolution of deep enmity will be sorely disappointed.

There is too much to wade through for that to happen. And there was no tangible outcome, other than a commitment to talk further.

And this is the impact on Australia

• ABC News Daily: The government is urging Australians to do what they can to use less fuel, but when will more severe restrictions kick in? Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Financial on why we're facing a 'doomsday' scenario that's been war gamed for decades. (16m 13s 🎧)

And here's how to stay up to date:

You can keep track of the latest updates from Iran and around the world throughout the day via our live blog.

Thanks for joining me. I'll see you at the same time tomorrow.

Scientists confirm skull found in Gippsland cave a century ago belongs to giant echidna.

Extract from ABC News

By Jack Colantuono

• ABC Gippsland

• Topic:Fossils

15 hours ago

Megalibgwilia owenii was an extinct giant echidna that lived during the Ice Age. (Supplied: Museums Victoria/Chris Edser)

In short:

Researchers have used a fossil found in a Gippsland cave 119 years ago to show that giant echidnas lived in Victoria during the Ice Age.

The discovery fills a major gap in the species' known range and adds new insight into the state's ancient megafauna.

What's next?

Researchers will continue to review historic collections and explore cave systems across Victoria in search of further evidence of the state's lost Ice Age animals.

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A fragment of bone found more than a century ago, in an East Gippsland limestone cave once explored by torchlight and rope, is now reshaping what scientists know about Victoria's Ice Age past.

The fossil, a partial skull, reveals the extinct giant echidna Megalibgwilia owenii once roamed the region alongside some of Australia's most extraordinary megafauna.

It was rediscovered in the state collection at Museums Victoria, where it had been preserved since it was first found in 1907 in Foul Air Cave near Buchan, more than four hours east of Melbourne.

Museums Victoria vertebrate palaeontology collection manager Tim Ziegler said the find was as much about revisiting the past as it was about rewriting it.

Tim Ziegler returned to Foul Air Cave at Buchan as part of his investigations. (Supplied: Museums Victoria/Robert French)

"It feels really special to do the fundamental work of building our knowledge and our understanding of just what Victoria was in deep time,"

Dr Ziegler said.

Missing puzzle piece

The identification marks the first confirmed evidence of the giant echidna in Victoria, filling a gap of more than 1,000 kilometres between previously known fossil sites in South Australia and New South Wales.

"But until now, you know, this is a missing piece of the puzzle," Dr Ziegler said.

"And in fact, just this one fossil, preserved by random chance in a pitfall trap and then discovered almost by random chance as well — it fills a gap in this long-beaked echidna's range across the entire continent.

"It's actually amazing that one fossil here spans more than 1,000 kilometres of unknown territory for this creature."

The cranial fossil of the Megalibgwilia owenii, found in Foul Air Cave in Buchan, Gippsland. (Supplied: Museums Victoria)

During the Pleistocene epoch, tens of thousands of years ago, the now-extinct echidna could grow to a metre long and weigh up to 15 kilograms — about the size of a small child.

It used its long, straight beak to forage through hard soils for insects.

Its presence adds to a growing picture of a vastly different Gippsland landscape, once home to enormous marsupials and formidable predators.

"We know that on top of the Buchan Caves, the kind of animals that roamed there in the past included marsupials that weighed more than a ton, predatory jaguar-sized animals with no living relatives," Dr Ziegler said.

A natural time capsule

The caves themselves, carved through ancient limestone on Krauatungalung Country near Buchan, have long been recognised as a rich fossil site, but scientists say their full story is still unfolding.

The extremely rare Megalibgwilia owenii fossil was discovered in Buchan's Foul Air Cave back in 1907. (Supplied: Museums Victoria)

"It's a very special place; the caves at Buchan are like a natural time capsule for these skeletal remains,"

Dr Ziegler said.

"It's one of the most diverse and abundant fossil sites in caves in south-eastern Australia."

While the fossil's rediscovery relied on modern techniques, including 3D scanning and detailed anatomical comparisons, its origins trace back to early 20th century expeditions, when naturalists first ventured into the cave system.

For Dr Ziegler, that continuity between past and present is part of what makes the work meaningful.

"The special thing for me as well, working in a place like Buchan, is that the history is so important too," he said.

"I can go and find who exactly was involved in these expeditions more than 100 years ago … that still creates new meaning today for the community as it is."

The right lateral fossil of the Megalibgwilia Owenii, known as "Owen's echidna", found in Foul Air Cave. (Supplied: Museums Victoria)

Revisiting the past

The discovery also highlights the enduring scientific value of museum collections, where specimens gathered generations ago can yield new insights with fresh eyes.

"Nothing is ever forgotten in a museum collection," Dr Ziegler said.

"But it's our job to bring that meaning back out again and return it to the community."

Researchers say the finding could prompt renewed searches through both historic collections and unexplored cave systems, in the hope of uncovering more evidence of the giant echidna's presence.

"So we're really filling in the picture, finding pieces of the jigsaw to rebuild this Ice Age megafauna of our past,"

Dr Ziegler said.

The dorsal fossil of the Megalibgwilia owenii, found in Foul Air Cave. (Supplied: Museums Victoria)

And with vast stretches of Victoria's fossil record still largely unknown, he said the next breakthrough could come from almost anywhere.

Whether deep underground, in a dusty archive, or hidden in plain sight, waiting, as this one did, for more than a century to be seen.