COP31 summit targets major electrification push as 1.5C goal slips away.

Extract from ABC News

By global affairs editor Laura Tingle in Türkiye

• Topic:Climate Change

6 hours ago

Global temperatures will rise beyond Paris Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. (Reuters: Wolfgang Rattay)

In short:

The COP31 climate summit, being jointly hosted by Türkiye and Australia, has conceded that the Earth will warm by more than 1.5 degrees.

Nations will push for greater electrification of energy and for less reliance on fossil fuels.

But both Australia and Türkiye are being criticised for their reliance on polluting energy sources.

A pledge to have 35 per cent of the world powered by electricity by 2035 is the central aim of UN climate talks in Türkiye this week, as the international summit concedes for the first time that global temperatures will rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Australia and Türkiye are joint presidents of this year's UN meeting on climate change.

Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen told the opening session of the conference that it was meeting "at a moment of consequence, whether it be glacial collapse in Nepal, heat deaths in Europe, or an intensifying El Niño".

"Climate change is here. It is not a forecast. It is not a prediction. It is the lived reality for billions of people."

Chris Bowen says despite missing the 1.5-degree target, global cooperation is working limit the impact of climate change. (Reuters: Ritzau Scanpix/Liselotte Sabroe)

But discussion of what to do to reduce the burning of fossil fuels that has fuelled so much of that change is the elephant in the room at this year's meeting. 

It is not formally on the agenda despite UN climate change executive secretary Simon Stiell telling the conference that "this year's fossil fuel cost chaos has delivered a global shock wave, hitting households hard and spreading inflation like a cancer".

"The fallout has been severe, both economically and politically, as we've just seen", he said in reference to the turmoil of the Iran war, and subsequent elections around the world.

Australia's export emissions under scrutiny

As United Nations climate talks commence in Türkiye, Australia's position as a climate leader will be tested.

As a major fossil fuel exporter, Australia has already come under intense criticism, particularly from Pacific nations, because it has allowed coal mining to expand and the North West Shelf gas project to be extended.

Türkiye's promotion of faster electrification also comes against the backdrop of its own heavy reliance on fossil-fuel-generated electricity.

Türkiye is Europe's largest coal power generator, with about 55 per cent of its electricity generated by coal and natural gas.

But the 35 per cent voluntary target remains relatively unambitious.

According to the International Energy Agency, electricity-generated power currently accounts for a 23 per cent share, and is forecast to rise to 30 per cent by 2035 due to existing policies already on track.

The international pledge at the climate talks held in Paris in 2015 was to limit the long-term rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

Just 11 years later, Antalya is the first meeting to concede that will not happen.

This year's summit will urge countries to pledge greater electrification of their energy generation. (Reuters: Mohammed Aty)

Mr Bowen struck an optimistic note, saying that before Paris "the world was heading for warming approaching 4 degrees".

"Today, projections are closer to 2.6 degrees," he said.

Türkiye and Australia say the Antalya meeting will focus mostly on trying to implement measures already agreed to, rather than set ambitious new targets.

Much of the focus will be on increasing finance support to poorer countries to adapt their energy systems and to offset the impacts of climate change.

This will include measures to slash methane emissions, particularly in the oil, gas and waste sectors.

Climate Council member and economist Nicki Hutley, who is attending the Antalya meeting, said a global push for electrification was "exactly what Australian households need from this summit".

"Australia should back the electrification pledge and match it with a plan at home."

"We import most of our refined fuel, so conflicts overseas land at Australian bowsers fast, but sun and wind can't be blockaded or embargoed."

"What's missing is a clear commitment to move the world away from coal, oil and gas. Electrification only delivers lower bills and real security if we stop tying ourselves to volatile fossil fuel markets."

Scientists call on Central Australians to help find elusive desert frogs.

Extract from ABC News

• By Chris Murrkarany Fitzpatrick

• ABC Alice Springs

• Topic:Amphibians

6 minutes ago

Jodi Rowley is encouraging Central Australians to record frog calls using the FrogID app. (Supplied: James Alcock)

In short:

Scientists are calling on Central Australians to record frog calls following recent storms, hoping to fill major gaps in knowledge about elusive desert species.

Residents can record frog calls using the FrogID app, including outside the official FrogID Week.

What's next?

Researchers hope to uncover new locations for poorly understood desert species.

Central Australians are being asked to lend their ears to science as recent storms offer a chance to find elusive frogs.

The Australian Museum is calling on residents to record frog calls using its free FrogID app during FrogID Week, running until Sunday.

Among the most sought-after frogs are the Tanami toadlet and the desert spadefoot, which are burrowing frogs that can spend months and potentially years hidden underground.

FrogID lead scientist Jodi Rowley said the central deserts were among Australia's most difficult places to study frogs.

"Some of the most poorly known frogs in Australia are from the central deserts or from really remote places throughout Australia," she said.

Many desert frogs emerge only after rain, when conditions are suitable for breeding.

The Tanami toadlet's call was first scientifically recorded in 2024, more than 40 years after the elusive desert frog was first described. (Supplied: Harry Ehmann)

Some burrowing frogs retreat more than 1 metre underground, conserving moisture in protective cocoons made from their own skin.

"They've got two things to do. One is eat as much as possible and the other is breed while there's water," Dr Rowley said.

A scientific mystery 43 years in the making

First described in 1981, the Tanami toadlet's call went unrecorded by scientists for 43 years.

That changed in March 2024, when more than 300 millimetres of rain fell over a weekend at Australian Wildlife Conservancy's Newhaven Wildlife Sanctuary.

Wildlife ecologist Tim Henderson said his team had walked to a flooded claypan where frogs were calling in abundance.

Tim Henderson leads the science program at Newhaven Wildlife Sanctuary. (Supplied: Tim Henderson)

"We don't often see frogs out here because it's the desert and it doesn't rain much, but when it does, it really comes to life," he said.

The team located Tanami toadlets and recorded their calls using FrogID, giving scientists a new way to recognise the elusive species.

Dr Henderson said recording the frogs was difficult because they emerged unpredictably after heavy rain.

"It's really about being in the right place at the right time," he said.

Dr Rowley said researchers still hoped to discover more locations for the species.

The desert spadefoot, a spotted burrowing frog, is another species researchers hope to hear more from.

The desert spadefoot is a burrowing frog known for its distinctive "whoop, whoop, whoop" call. (Supplied: Abbey Dean)

"It's one of my favorites," Dr Rowley said, imitating its call.

"Something like whoop, whoop, whoop."

Everyday discoveries

Since launching in 2017, FrogID has collected about 1.5 million frog recordings, helping scientists map distributions and contributing to the scientific description of 13 new frog species.

But large parts of remote Australia remain poorly surveyed.

Dr Rowley said recordings from people travelling, camping or living in remote communities could be particularly valuable.

One recording submitted from a Northern Territory home revealed a frog more than 150 kilometres beyond its previously known range.

FrogID allows scientists to identify species such as the Howard Springs toadlet by their distinctive calls. (Supplied: Dane Trembath)

"So particularly in these remote and arid areas, your recording could be a huge scientific discovery," she said.

Long-term recordings help researchers understand changes in frog habitats, including the impacts of drought and climate change.

Dr Henderson said even recordings of common frogs could be valuable if the species had never been documented in that location.

How to get involved

People can record frogs using the free FrogID app, even outside the official FrogID Week.

Experts identify species from their calls, and background noise is not a problem.

More than 1.5 million frog recordings have been collected through FrogID since 2017, including that of the Copland's rock frog. (Supplied: Stephen Mahony)

The best opportunities are often after rain, particularly at night, although desert frogs can call during the day.

"You don't need to know what the frog species looks like. You don't need to know what it is," Dr Rowley said.

"You just submit that and then we'll get back to you."

Why cost-of-living concerns are up-ending global politics.

Extract from ABC News

Analysis

By chief business correspondent Ian Verrender

• Topic:Elections

3 hours ago

Donald Trump's ill-fated decision to bomb Iran came back to haunt him in the midterms. (Reuters: Evan Vucci)

Two countries, two elections, two very different results.

But the political upheaval in both was driven by the same economic forces running rampant across the globe.

Soaring inflation globally has spurred voters to up-end the political status quo in both the United States and New Zealand in the past week.

While the Trump administration was humiliated by the massive swing against it in America's midterms, NZ's political fate is still too close to call after several high-ranking ministers were turfed out of office.

In both cases, cost-of-living pressures loomed large over voters as governments and central banks globally struggle to contain a pricing breakout dumped upon them by Donald Trump's ill-fated decision to bomb Iran.

The US midterms should scare the heck out of Albanese

A hasty fix that crashes the economy might quicken Labor's march to a Trumpocalypse of its own making.

Both election results will have a profound impact on Australia.

America, our defence partner and a magnet for Australian superannuation funds, is key to the prosperity of many Australians, while NZ's floundering economy in the past four years has a significant impact on the size of Australia's workforce.

After the US midterm results were largely welcomed by Wall Street investors on Wednesday, the technology-heavy Nasdaq exchange experienced a brutal sell-off on Thursday night before partially recovering on Friday.

Investors remain twitchy about how Democrats will view the AI boom.

Investors are reconsidering AI's future in light of the Democrats' midterm election victory. (Reuters: Max A. Cherney)

A growing international backlash against the construction of massive data centres in urban and rural areas has raised fears that the expected pay-off for the massive investments in artificial intelligence will be seriously delayed, causing a major market correction.

The results of both elections, however, highlight the growing impotence of governments and central banks in curbing inflation after three decades of artificially low interest rates fuelled an explosion in debt at a government, corporate and household level.

Swimming in debt

Last year, global government debt hit a staggering $US112 trillion ($162 trillion), with America accounting for the lion's share: about 38 per cent.

As inflation remained bottled up since the late 80s, interest rates declined, particularly after market upheavals such as the tech wreck and the Global Financial Crisis, and tapped out in negative territory during the pandemic.

That encouraged governments to run ever-expanding deficits. And while consumer price inflation remained in the doldrums, asset prices soared.

The cost of housing doubled and then trebled in many of the world's developed economies as stock markets continually hit new records, creating a growing wealth chasm within many societies.

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That is now bubbling over into a wellspring of discontent.

And it has occurred at a time when the cost of servicing public debt has soared, leaving governments hamstrung in their ability to alleviate the growing inequality within society or, in the case of many developing nations, unable to provide basic services.

The war in Iran and massive tax cuts for the wealthy have blown American government debt out to 126 per cent of GDP with little scope for reversing the trend. And whichever party tries to scale back will be deeply unpopular.

Australia's government debt, meanwhile, sits at 33 per cent, low by international standards but expanding as a result of ongoing budget deficits.

Cost-of-living pressures loomed large over the New Zealand election. (Reuters: David Rowland)

Kiwis heading west

The New Zealand economy has been in and out of recession since the pandemic.

While technically that no longer is the case, growth is anaemic and twitchy.

The National Party government led by Christopher Luxon, elected three years ago on a platform of reining in inflation and promoting growth, has struggled to live up to the promises.

Hence the backlash over the weekend.

Who's to blame for interest rate hikes?

The Coalition has been blaming federal government spending for rising inflation and another impending rate rise for Melbourne Cup Day, but the figures tell a different story. 

Luxon and his predecessor, Jacinda Ardern, are not entirely to blame for the country's economic woes.

Much of that can be traced home to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which adopted a gung-ho attitude to killing inflation after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The world's first central bank to raise interest rates, it sent them to 5.5 per cent, tipping the country into debilitating recessions on several occasions.

The official cash rate is now at 2.75 per cent, but with soaring fuel prices, inflation is again well outside the target zone at 3.7 per cent. With growth so patchy, raising interest rates isn't much of an option.

As with Australia, wage growth has lagged inflation, eroding workers' living standards amid a growing sense of frustration.

NZ, however, does have a safety valve. It's called Australia.

Whenever economic conditions deteriorate, many Kiwis simply pack up and head west for work.

With little or no visa requirements and with generally higher wages, it's a no-brainer.

During the past few years, Kiwis have been heading across the Tasman in numbers only exceeded in 2012 in the aftermath of the GFC.

In the three years to mid-2026, about 120,000 Kiwis headed to Australia, with a smaller number returning home.

Given what RBA governor Michele Bullock has described in recent years as a tight labour market in Australia, the influx was a welcome trend, adding skilled workers to the mix here.

Without it, NZ's jobless rate of 5.7 per cent would be much higher, and unless the country's economic woes are addressed, expect elevated levels of trans-Tasman migration in the next few years.

But after five rate hikes here this year, continued net migration to Australia is likely to put pressure on our rising unemployment rate.

Wall Street wobbles

While the risks of a sovereign debt crisis continue to mount, they have been overtaken in the past month by fears of a shake-out on Wall Street, and particularly AI stocks.

Those concerns coalesced last on Thursday night, just a day after the Trump administration was shaken to the core by the overwhelming rejection of American voters in the midterms.

The day before, immediately after the results, markets boomed in the hope that Trump would walk away from his war with Iran, allowing stability to return to energy markets, the main driver of the inflation blowout this year.

But concerns that Democrats would now impose controls over data centre construction sent Wall Street into a tailspin, with tech stocks shedding about 6 per cent.

Is Nvidia facing a spy scandal?

Given Australian superannuation funds have as much as 20 per cent of investments parked on Wall Street, with the vast bulk of that $800 billion in technology stocks, the US economy and Wall Street's performance have a direct impact on the wellbeing of most Australians.

November is generally a good month for US stocks. And, according to former investment banker Mike Mangan, a Republican loss in the midterms is almost a guarantee of outsized performance.

Ever since Eisenhower lost Congress in the 1954 midterms, a Republican president losing in the midterms has returned an average of 2.1 per cent the following month.

"Only once in 1974 did this not happen," Mangan says.

Over three months and over a year, the returns were spectacular.

But this year is unlike most others. Soaring inflation, the worst energy crisis in half a century, a stock market that has run hard for a very long time and growing unrest on the streets.

Like many other countries, the opposing party didn't win; it was the ruling party that lost. 

And unless the Democrats can take action to turn the country around, they are likely to suffer the same fate down the track as increasingly desperate voters shift politics from the centre to the extremes.

Controversial Sydney AI data centre at Cooks River scrapped following community backlash.

Extract from ABC News

By Shannon Corvo

• By Else Kennedy

By Alexander Lewis

• Topic:AI

18 hours ago

Members from the Stop the Cooks River AI Project (SCRAP) are calling the backtrack a "win for people power". (Supplied: SCRAP)

Plans for another controversial AI data centre in Sydney have been scrapped, with a community group hailing the decision as a "victory for people power".

The facility, which was set to become part of a proposed logistics hub on the Cooks River at Arncliffe in the city's south, faced backlash from the local community after it was revealed in July last year.

Developers Stockland and John Boyd Properties proposed to redevelop the rezoned 18.3-hectare Kogarah Golf Club site into an estimated $3.5 billion logistics precinct including an AI data centre.

Stockland and John Boyd Properties withdrew their plans for the AI data centre. (Supplied)

Stop the Cooks River AI Project (SCRAP), which consists of hundreds of members, had been protesting against the development since forming in August.

'We were worried'

Group organiser Paddy Gibson said surrounding residents were celebrating the "very good win for people power".

"People really love this river and we're just horrified to hear that it could be threatened in this way,"

he said.

Mr Gibson said it would have posed a risk to the fragile local ecology around the river, which is called Goolay'yari in local Indigenous languages, which was already recovering from "industrialisation over the years".

"There's endangered plants and other animal species in the green space," he said.

"There's plenty of people trying to work on remediating what is a very polluted river, and we were worried that this would set back those efforts."

Paddy Gibson says there are endangered plants and other animal species at the proposed data centre site. (Supplied)

He also mentioned concerns about power usage and possible water contamination.

A Stockland spokesperson said the partners were now focused on building a "world class logistics precinct which does not include a data centre as part of the amended Concept Masterplan".

"The site is on the doorstep of Sydney Airport and in close proximity to Port Botany and major transport infrastructure, making it uniquely suited for a logistics hub and has potential for mixed uses, like retail and hospitality,"

they said.

"The project will also deliver a one-kilometre public foreshore link along the Cooks River and the future delivery of the 14-hectare Pemulwuy Park, as well as local road upgrades and improved active transport connections."

The spokesperson said the group would continue to engage openly with stakeholders as planning for the logistics precinct progressed.

'A wildlife sanctuary'

Bayside Greens councillor Peter Strong who had led council's opposition to the project said the decision was "very heartening".

Mr Strong said forums and outdoor events about the project had attracted large numbers of residents.

His main concerns were about excess energy and water use, noise, and the way AI was being "used and weaponised against the best wishes of humanity".

"That space has become a bit of a wildlife sanctuary since nothing much has happened with the old Kogarah Golf Club since they sold it," Mr Strong said.

Locals were concerned with the impact on water use and energy. (Supplied)

He said the withdrawal sent a message to the state government that "the council should have more of a veto on these data centres".

In August, the Minns government released its data centre policy framework which they said balanced the interests of households and investment in NSW.

A recent report following a parliamentary inquiry into data centres noted that the guidelines should have been in place "before developing any planning fast-track processes for these projects".

The government has until February next year to respond to the report.

Canterbury Labor MP Sophie Cotsis said she looked forward to seeing the revised logistics hub masterplan including a public foreshore link, road upgrades and improved active transport connections.

"The Minns Labor Government has established the Cooks River Consolidation Project to resolve longstanding tenure issues along the river," she said.

"As the local MP I am focused on working together with my colleagues and government agencies to see investment in the naturalisation of the river banks."

AI data centre pushback

Protesters at Merrylands rallying against a proposed AI data centre. (ABC News: Alex Lewis)

It is the latest in a series of proposed data centres to be scrapped following community opposition.

An AirTrunk data centre proposed in Lane Cove was also dropped, and another in Guildford in September.

Residents at Merrylands in Western Sydney have also rallied against the $1.1 billion Project Pluto Data Centre proposed by the Goodman Group, to be located next to the Guildford West Sportsground.

Labelled a state-significant development, locals said it was approved in July behind their backs.

The project did not receive a single submission from the public, with some locals saying they never received a letter.

Goodman Group said it had sent correspondence to more than 1,200 homes and businesses, three times.

SCRAP said it would continue campaigning against the logistics hub on the riverfront and for a ban on all new AI data centres.

Gadi Eisenkot is trying to form government in Israel. Here are five ways it could go.

 Extract from ABC News

By Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran

• Topic:World Politics

1 hours ago

Gadi Eisenkot appears at his party headquarters following the announcement of exit poll results. (Reuters: Shir Torem)

Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot has now been asked to try to form a new coalition government, meeting Israel's President Isaac Herzog in Jerusalem on Sunday to receive his invite to start negotiations. 

But his pathway to power is not entirely easy, and the next few weeks could involve some creative political arithmetic and manoeuvring to get over the line. 

So, what are the options from here? 

The starting point

The reason Gadi Eisenkot has been tapped for the first shot at forming a coalition is because of what happened late last week.

Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, has been Benjamin Netanyahu's main opponent in the election. (Reuters: Shir Torem)

The president sat down with representatives of each of the political parties that won seats at the election, and asked them to endorse either Mr Eisenkot or the incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu — given the two men are the leaders of the two largest parties in the next Knesset.

All of the anti-Netanyahu parties from across the political spectrum, including the two Arab-Israeli or Palestinian-Israeli parties, backed Mr Eisenkot:

• Yashar (Eisenkot's own party) — 21 seats
• Together — 12 seats
• The Democrats — 8 seats
• Yisrael Beiteinu — 7 seats
• The United Arab List — 8 seats
• The Joint List — 11 seats

That's a total of 67 seats in the 120-seat Knesset backing the main rival to Benjamin Netanyahu.

The prime minister only secured votes from most of his current coalition:

• Likud (Netanyahu's own party) — 27 seats
• Otzma Yehudit — 7 seats
• Religious Zionism — 6 seats
• Shas — 6 seats

That's a total of 46 seats in the Knesset.

The other ultra-Orthodox Jewish party, United Torah Judaism (UTJ), did not back either candidate with their seven seats — despite spending most of the last four years backing in Mr Netanyahu.

Here's why that doesn't mean Eisenkot will be the next PM

Getting the endorsements to start negotiations is important, as it puts Mr Eisenkot in the box seat to form a new government and end Mr Netanyahu's time at the top.

At the moment, they are united by a common goal of giving the current prime minister the boot.

But convincing them to put aside longstanding grievances and policy differences could be difficult, and loyalty to principle also isn't guaranteed.

Mr Eisenkot is in a prime position to form a new government and end Mr Netanyahu's leadership.  (Reuters: Clodagh Kilcoyne)

Scenario one: Minority government

Israeli media is speculating Gadi Eisenkot could try to press ahead with forming a minority government, which would include all of the Jewish anti-Netanyahu parties:

• Yashar
• Together
• The Democrats
• Yisrael Beiteinu

That's a total of 48 seats out of the 120 on offer in the Knesset.

The only way that could work is if the two Arab-Israeli parties, the United Arab List and the Joint List, agreed to effectively green-light the government's agenda on the floor of the Knesset — promising not to block things like budget legislation.

There's an immediate problem with this approach — the leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, Avigdor Liberman wants a majority government.

His opposition to working with the Arab-Israeli parties goes as far as relying on them working outside of a formal coalition.

As a result, he is reportedly looking at trying to entice the ultra-orthodox parties of UTJ and Shas to join forces with the rest of the "change" camp.

Mr Liberman could change his tune. But at this point, he seems to be digging his heels in.

Scenario two: Majority Jewish government

This would be a coalition of all of the Jewish parties that are critics of Benjamin Netanyahu, and the two ultra-Orthodox parties who've helped to prop up his right-wing government over the past four years:

• Yashar
• Together
• The Democrats
• Yisrael Beiteinu
• United Torah Judaism
• Shas

That's a total of 61 seats — the barest of majorities.

While this would effectively kill off the fierce and at times racist arguments being put forward about the Arab-Israeli vote, it brings its own problems.

Mr Eisenkot and other members of the so-called "change" camp have all campaigned on wanting to force men from the growing ultra-orthodox community, known as the Haredi, to complete compulsory military service.

This has been one of the most controversial issues of the past three years, since Hamas's deadly attacks against Israel on October 7, 2023 — the pressure on the Israel Defense Forces as it fights on multiple fronts.

In 2024, the Israeli Supreme Court tore up the sweeping exemptions from service afforded to Haredi men — effectively ending the principle that they should be given permission to avoid being drafted because they are students of the Jewish faith, and work to safeguard the future of the religion.

No clear winner in Israeli election

Early exit polling and results show incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc is likely to secure more seats than the opposition, but still falling short of the majority required to form government.

UTJ and Shas had been demanding the Netanyahu government reimpose the exemptions.

Even Avigdor Liberman, the man now reportedly talking to them, campaigned on ending "draft dodging".

If this scenario were to become reality, it would demonstrate a commitment to the principle of ousting Mr Netanyahu over loyalty to pre-election policy platforms.

It could also be a calculation that anti-Arab sentiment in the Israeli community is more toxic than anti-Haredi views.

Scenario three: Majority Jewish-Arab government

This would be a coalition of the anti-Netanyahu Jewish parties, and the two Arab-Israeli parties:

• Yashar
• Together
• The Democrats
• Yisrael Beiteinu
• The Joint List
• The United Arab List

That would be a total of 67 seats — the strongest majority possible on the current numbers without Mr Netanyahu's Likud. More on that below.

But the only way this would happen is if the strident opposition to the Arab-Israeli parties is parked in favour of toppling Mr Netanyahu.

It is also a government that would come under attack from the prime minister and right-wing forces in Israel given the ongoing allegations of foreign interference in the election prompting a surge in support for those parties.

Scenario four: 'Unity' government

This is something Benjamin Netanyahu has started pushing more and more in the last week or so — encouraging Gadi Eisenkot to work across the aisle with him to form a broad, Jewish-Israeli coalition.

It would look something like this:

• Likud
• Yashar
• Together
• The Democrats
• Yisrael Beiteinu

That gets total of 75 seats in the Knesset — a considerable majority.

Where to next in the Israeli election?

The inconclusive result of the Israeli election with neither Netanyahu nor the opposition gaining majority, means weeks of messy and complicated negotiations.

The problem here is that Mr Eisenkot and the other "change" camp parties have spent the past few years insisting Mr Netanyahu is the embodiment of everything wrong with the government and needs to go.

Mr Eisenkot has also ruled it out, even as Mr Netanyahu continues to insist it is the way forward.

This scenario also does not include the far-right Otzma Yehudit, led by national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Religious Zionism, led by finance minister Bezalel Smotrich.

They are seen as even more problematic than Mr Netanyahu by members of the "change" camp.

Scenario five: No deal and new elections

Gadi Eisenkot has at least 28 days to form a new coalition.

Mr Herzog can give Mr Eisenkot more time to form a government. (Reuters: Bernadett Szabo)

President Isaac Herzog can extend that by another 14 days of he thinks there's a chance at a deal, and it just needs a bit more time.

At the end of that process, he can ask another candidate to have a go.

But if that also fails, Israel would be on track for another election sometime early in the new year.

Same too if one of the other scenarios play out, and the government collapses — a fresh vote could be ordered.