A personal view of Australian and International Politics

Saturday, 14 March 2026

Iran, not the US, currently has the strategic upper hand.

Extract from ABC News

Analysis

By Laura Tingle

Topic:World Politics

5 hours ago

Donald Trump wearing a dark suit and red tie speaks behind a podium. — It is Iran — not the US — setting the terms of a battle, which is now not a battle over military might but of economics and messing with people's heads. (Reuters: Evan Vucci )

If there ever was a strategy behind Donald Trump's decision to blow up the Middle East — and increasingly few believe there ever was — it is lying in tatters as the second week of the Iran war draws to a close.

It is Iran — not the US — setting the terms of a battle, which is now not a battle over military might but of economics and messing with people's heads.

The tide has turned is the message of most analysts this week.

And Iran has the advantage.

Iran chalks up key victories

This week, it was Iran that was in control of the world oil market, not the United States, contrary to Trump's apparent plan to seize control of Venezuelan and Iranian oil in a bid to gain a competitive advantage over China.

This week, it was Iran that was able to shake the foundations of economies across the region that depend on oil and gas, but which are now having to close down production while fighting off drone and missile attacks on their production facilities.

And of course this week Iran chose a hard-line leader in defiance of Trump's airy assertion that he wanted a say in who would run Iran.

Donald Trump, wearing a dark suit and red tie, stands holding up a skinny sign that says USA. — If there ever was a strategy behind Donald Trump's decision to blow up the Middle East, it is lying in tatters as the second week of the Iran war draws to a close. (Reuters: Jonathan Ernst)

This week, Iran struck further blows to the sense of stability and confidence on which Gulf states have built successful economies.

Having undermined travellers' confidence in flying via the Gulf, and creating a huge no-fly zone over some of the world's busiest flight paths, Iran turned its attention to shaking confidence in places like Dubai — as stable bases for the finance and tech sectors — simply by a threat.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp said an attack on an Iranian bank gave Iran free rein to target US financial interests across the region, notably banks and IT companies. This sparked a mass evacuation from Dubai's financial and high-tech districts.

That sense of menace was reinforced in Dubai on Friday morning by what was without doubt the biggest strike in the centre of the city to date: an explosion close to the international financial district that sent a massive plume of smoke across much of the city skyline.

(Locally, it was reported with Emirati understatement that "debris from a successful interception caused minor damage to the facade of a building in the city centre".)

But there were signs of flight booking sites suddenly being flooded and ticket prices jumping by the minute.

Keep an eye on March 31

Gulf states are talking of this being a passing shadow over their futures but they now face an existential threat to their whole business model: not just the loss of oil and gas revenues, but a challenge to their moves to diversify away from those revenues by becoming transport hubs and financial centres.

In the Gulf, as in much of the rest of the world, there is a presumption that the US president will now be looking for a way out of the war he helped start, claiming victory even as he has caused chaos in the region, and to the global economy.

If you are looking for a date that may be helping focus Trump's mind, it is March 31.

The US president is scheduled to fly to meet with China's leader Xi Jinping on March 31 and it seems highly unlikely that he will want to head there without some story of great military success and global dominance to tell.

But that suggests Trump still holds levers to influence events, as opposed to just blindly asserting that something has happened.

So much of the international coverage of this war has been driven by a presumption that the US president has the power to direct events, particularly a US president who has shown no regard for guardrails which constrain his power at home.

Yet, even with all that power he has been wielding at home and abroad, and the massive bombardment the US and Israel have inflicted on Iran, the US is not in control of what is happening.

Energy market beyond Trump's control

The commentary and analysis is shifting to reflect that, not only are Trump and the US not in control of what is happening, but they now have little chance of getting it back under control, particularly when it comes to the energy market.

Energy market analysts will tell you that you can't just restart the flow of oil, either out of the ground or around the globe.

It will take months at best.

And Iran shows no interest in giving up the massive lever it has now been handed over the oil market. It can export its own oil. Sanctions on oils sold by its ally Russia have been lifted by the US.

Wars are often described as ones of asymmetric power and Trump and his officials certainly seem to have gone into the war believing the asymmetric power balance lay firmly with them at a military level and with their cyber technology, not understanding that the threat to oil, and the lethality of drones, actually meant the balance was very much in the other direction.

Even with claims of the destruction of much of its missile capacity, Iran has continued to wreak havoc, maximising fear as much as weapons.

Despite often calling Iran a supporter of terror, there seems to have been little comprehension that Iran is now essentially engaging in terror tactics, state to state to maximise its advantage — and it has no real reason to stop.

That leaves the rest of the world to deal with the fallout.

Protagonists unmoved by international pressure

Iran's new Supreme Leader says flatly that US bases in the region have to close and will be attacked.

While Gulf states are furiously trying to stay out of the war, attacks on bases they host dramatically change the equation of their relationship with the US, even if they insist Iran will not drive a wedge between them and the US.

For Australia there is a question about the vulnerability of its base in the UAE and whether Iranian attacks will inevitably spread there. It has already been under fire early in the war.

If the US withdraws, many in the Gulf fear an extension of the sorts of bombardments and warfare seen in Gaza.

Mojtaba Khamenei, wearing a black turban, standing in a crowd. — Iran's new Supreme Leader says US bases in the region have to close and will be attacked. (AP: Vahid Salemi. )

After Hezbollah essentially joined the war by firing rockets at Israel in support of Iran, Israel seized on the opportunity with all its military might: a sideshow to the main event that's quickly turned into a humanitarian disaster.

(A sideshow that has 800,000 Lebanese on the move as a result of an Israeli diktat that they must clear out of a 40-kilometre-wide band of land north of the Israeli border and seen the IDF hit central Beirut, away from known Hezbollah strongholds.)

The war aims of the US and Israel seem more transparently divergent than they have been in the past.

Benjamin Netanyahu would appear to think he has everything to gain — and a 40-year commitment to the humbling of Iran — from the war continuing, even if Trump has second thoughts.

Most disturbing of all however may be the fact that the three main protagonists in this fight — Trump, Netanyahu and the Iranian leadership — have all proved themselves unmoved by international opinion or pressure.

The scope for the rest of the world to have any influence on these events appears negligible.

Laura Tingle is the ABC's Global Affairs Editor.

‘All the boys have them’: Trump’s bizarre shoe spree emerges.

Extract from The New Daily

People

The New Daily
Mar 13, 2026, updated Mar 13, 2026

Stephen Colbert on Trump shoes

Source: LateNighter

US President Donald Trump has apparently been on a gifting spree for his top advisers – with some rather perplexing results.

For the past few months, Trump has been gifting senior cabinet members and political allies pairs of his favourite dress shoes, according to reports in The Wall Street Journal last week.

The shiny black lace-ups are from American brand Florsheim and reportedly cost just $US145 ($A203) a pair. According to the newspaper, Trump is – er – footing the bill himself.

“All the boys have them,” one female White House staffer told the Journal.

It’s true. Recent photos show Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff all lined up in the same shoes.

“It’s hysterical because everybody’s afraid not to wear them,” another female official said.

The hilarity comes because Trump apparently doesn’t feel the need to ask people what size shoe they wear before handing over the gift.

“He asks an aide to put in an order and, a week later, a brown Florsheim box arrives at the White House. Trump sometimes signs the box or attaches a note of gratitude, according to people familiar with the ritual,” the Journal reported.

Recent photos, however, show that Trump’s eye might be slightly off. An image of Rubio went viral this week showing him seemingly wearing loose Florsheim dress shoes with a large gap between his heel and the back of the shoe.

“Hysterical,” late night TV show host Stephen Colbert said this week.

“Just like that classic joke: Knock, knock. Who’s there? It’s the man who checks the shoes. I see you’re not wearing them. Get in the van.”

Colbert also called out other members of the administration – “or, as they’re collectively known, Trump’s wet little shoe cucks” – who had been noticeable by their footwear. He saved special mention for Vance and, particularly, Rubio – who he said looked like a kid trying on his father’s shoes “to pretend to be secretary of big boys”.

“Take a look at JD Vance and Marco Rubio’s itty bitty ankles drowning in their giant clown shoes,” Colbert said.

Vance, Rubio and Pete Hegseth at an Oval Office meeting with Trump in February. Photo: TND/AAP

Rubio and Vance were reportedly gifted their Florsheims back in December – after a meeting where Trump got bored.

Vance told right-wing commentator Benny Johnson that he, Trump, Rubio and another unnamed politician were discussing a serious policy issue — until Trump abruptly shifted the conversation.

“The President kind of holds up his hand and says, ‘No, no, no, hold on a second. There’s something much more important. Shoes’,” Vance said.

Trump then “peers over the Resolute Desk” and declares: “Marco, JD, you guys have s–ty shoes. We gotta get you better shoes.”

Trump then apparently asked the men in the room for their shoe sizes. Vance said one said “seven”, at which Trump apparently “leaned back in his chair”.

“You know you can tell a lot about a man by his shoe size,” he said, according to Vance.

Other American media have noted that Florsheim parent company Weyco Group is suing the US government over Trump’s tariffs. The shoes are made in China, and therefore subject to significant sales penalties in the US.

Friday, 13 March 2026

‘Beggars belief’: calls for federal intervention after extension to ‘carbon bomb’ open-cut coalmine approved by Queensland government.

Extract from The Guardian

Hail Creek coal mine in central Queensland

Hail Creek is responsible for about 20% of Australia’s coalmine methane, while only producing 1% of the country’s coal

A proposed expansion of the Hail Creek coalmine in central Queensland, described by conservationists as a “carbon bomb”, was backed by the state’s government on Wednesday.

The mine, operated by multinational Glencore, has been approved to expand its footprint and extend its lifespan for three years, to 2038. The extension project will mine an additional 24m tonnes of coal.

The approval will allow Glencore to clear 600 hectares of koala habitat described by experts as “nationally significant”, to expand the mine west of Mackay.

In granting the approval, the Queensland environment department deemed “the risk to the long-term conservation of biological diversity and ecological integrity” as low, and the project’s influence on the climate crisis also as “low by comparison to global emissions”.

Hail Creek is Australia’s most methane-intensive open-cut coalmine. It is responsible for about 20% of Australia’s coalmine methane, while only producing 1% of the country’s coal, according to Freja Leonard, a climate campaigner at the Australian Conservation Foundation.

“Queensland is the biggest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions nationally and the Hail Creek carbon bomb is a huge part of the problem,” she said. UN-backed research found in 2025 that the mine’s methane emissions were likely between three and eight times higher than officially reported.

“At a time while we’re seeing an escalation of climate impacts directly affecting Queensland communities, through flood risk … and unseasonal bushfire events, it just absolutely beggars belief that the Queensland government is walking back from their commitments to the climate,” Leonard said.

“We call on federal environment minister Murray Watt to reject Glencore’s proposal to make climate change even worse by expanding Hail Creek.”

The expansion has been referred to the federal government, with the environment department considering whether it will require an assessment under national environment laws.

Emeritus Prof Peter Rayner, an atmospheric physicist and chief scientist of the Superpower Institute, said: “Methane is a super-pollutant – 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide, and is responsible for a third of recent global warming.”

“Extending Hail Creek locks in significant emissions for decades to come – which are currently under-reported. This endangers pathways to net zero and hence Australia’s compliance with the Paris Agreement.”

Dr Claire Gronow, central Queensland coordinator for the Lock the Gate Alliance, said the approval “condemns Queenslanders to more climate chaos which drives up the cost of insurance, repairs and food prices”.

“The area contains nationally significant koala habitat, and we found a high density population in the footprint of Glencore’s proposed coalmine using thermal drone technology. Glencore should not be allowed to destroy wildlife refuges for their own polluting profits.”

Queensland Conservation Council campaigner Charlie Cox said: “Disappointingly, the Crisafulli government is willing to bulldoze the home of a nationally significant koala population, but the final decision now sits with federal environment minister Murray Watt.”

“Queensland communities are still mopping up after some of the worst floods on record. Approving Glencore’s Hail Creek coalmine does not help them, it makes the next disaster more severe.”

Glencore said in a statement: “Hail Creek mine continues to manage and reduce its greenhouse emissions in compliance with the national safeguard mechanism.”

It said the mine, as part of the extension project, had committed to “implementing a greenhouse gas abatement plan, undertaking a gas pre-drainage study, as well as conducting ongoing reviews of existing and emerging emission reduction technologies”.

A spokesperson for the federal department of climate change, energy, the environment and water said the extension had been “referred for consideration under national environment law. The Minister’s delegate must determine whether it is a controlled action, meaning it would require thorough assessment before a decision can be made on whether to approve the project under the EPBC Act”.

The Queensland environment department was approached for comment.

King penguins successfully changing breeding habits in face of climate change.

Extract from ABC News

By Amy Briggs

23 hours ago

Several adorable brown furry baby penguins stand with a couple of tall black and white penguins with touches of yellow markings. — King penguins have the longest breeding cycle of any penguin species. (iNaturalist: admss, King penguin, CC-BY-NC 4.0)

In short:

King penguins on the Crozet Islands are breeding earlier and with a higher level of success than they did 24 years ago.

Researchers say this is likely in response to their changing environment and food availability.

Other penguins in the region are also bringing forward their mating cycles.

Climate change is putting pressure on many animals and their food chains at the extremes of our planet.

Animals that are higher up the food chain, such as penguins, are especially vulnerable to changes in the environment.

But research published today in Science Advances shows some penguin species are changing breeding habits in the face of climate change — and it appears to be working for them.

Researchers found king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) populations on the sub-Antarctic archipelago of Crozet in the Southern Ocean were breeding 19 days earlier than 24 years ago, with greater success rates for chick survival.

Study co-author Robin Cristofari, an evolutionary biologist from the University of Helsinki, said the shift was an "unbelievably large change" in breeding dates, but warned the trend might not last.

"King penguins are very flexible and resilient animals, and importantly they are surfing on the 'good edge' of climate change for the moment."

How often do king penguins breed?

Close up or a penguin with orange patches on its head, throat and beak. — King penguins have distinctive orange patches on their head, neck and beak. (Wikimedia: Liam Quinn CC BY-SA 2.0)

King penguins are the second largest penguin species — they're just a bit smaller than the iconic emperor penguin.

They live in ice-free areas on sub-Antarctic region including the Crozet Islands, South Georgia Island, and Australian territories such as Heard Island, McDonald Islands, and Macquarie Island.

King penguins have the longest breeding cycle of any penguin species, lasting between 13 and 16 months.

To find the average start date for breeding in the Crozet colony, researchers monitored more than 17,000 penguins from the sub-species A.patagonicus halli for 24 years.

They used RFID microchips — similar to what's in anti-theft tags in shops — to find out when the penguins left to get food and when they returned to their breeding partner in the colony.

A little pointed beak pokes out of an egg shell which sits on a penguins feet, covered in white feathers. — A king penguin chick hatching from its egg, Possession Island, Crozet Islands. (Supplied: Gaël Bardon)

Using a deep learning model, the researchers monitored the penguins' behaviour and worked backwards to estimate when the birds mated.

Twenty-four years ago, the average date was around November 27, with the date moving forward to November 8 by 2023.

For every day the mating event was brought earlier, there was about a 1 per cent increase in the success rate of breeding.

The breeding success of the penguins in 2000 was 44 per cent, and reached 62 per cent in 2023.

Why are penguins breeding earlier?

It was unclear how the penguins knew when to breed earlier.

Dr Cristofari said it was probably a combination of factors that included long-term processes that increased food availability, and the short-term cues that helped the animals sense when spring was coming.

"One element is probably that king penguins breed when they feel strong and healthy, and when the weather gets them in the mood,"

he said.

Improved weather conditions may also allow the penguins to breed sooner, according to Céline Le Bohec, another study co-author and seabird ecologist at the Centre Scientifique de Monaco.

"When adults can regain energy more quickly, they may be able to start the next breeding attempt sooner, effectively extending the breeding window," Dr Le Bohec said.

a large penguin colony stands crowded underneath a rainbow and dark clouded sky. — The king penguin colony of Cap Ratmanoff, one of the largest king penguin colonies in the world, Kerguelen Islands. (Supplied: Céline Le Bohec)

Breeding success — a chick making it to adulthood — is also based upon the availability of food.

King penguins, which mainly eat lantern fish and squid, must feed themselves and their young enough to have sufficient body mass to survive the harsh winter.

"As you can imagine, having three more weeks to put on fat before a full winter of fasting is a huge advantage. And if that next summer actually comes three weeks earlier too, then it's a double advantage," Dr Cristofari said.

The study found the earlier onset of breeding and the success of it were related to increased sea surface temperatures and ocean productivity (which is a measure of the availability of food).

It's not entirely understood why the two factors are related, but Ignacio Juarez Martinez, a penguinologist at Oxford University who was not involved with the research, suggested that warmer conditions could create more of the bacteria and algae for the fish that the penguins eat.

"It could be that currents have changed and brought up more nutrients from the bottom of the ocean, that algae bloom earlier and better in warmer waters," Dr Juarez Martinez said.

"Or that some species that would compete with penguins have disappeared and the penguins have more food now," he added.

Heads of three penguins surfing through waves. — King penguins back from their foraging trip, Possession Island, Crozet Archipelago. (Supplied: Céline Le Bohec)

Gaël Bardon, lead author on the study and seabird ecologist at the Centre Scientifique de Monaco, said the long breeding period also allowed king penguins to be more resilient in the face of environmental changes.

"This flexibility can help populations buffer against environmental variability, such as years with poor food conditions or storms," Dr Bardon said.

But the penguins can't keep breeding earlier and earlier.

"Climate change or not, winters will always be darker, with less photosynthesis and less marine productivity," Dr Cristofari said.

Continued environmental change may lead to seasonal mismatches between predators and prey across the food chain, which can threaten penguins, their prey, and the entire ecosystem.

Earlier breeding a trend in many penguins

While the study only looked at king penguins in the Crozet Islands, Dr Cristofari said the breeding patterns of king penguins on other sub-Antarctic islands was also likely to be changing.

"I wouldn't be surprised if king penguins [on Australian sub Antarctic islands] soon followed suit," Dr Cristofari said.

"I think what we're observing is really coming together as a global trend."

The breeding patterns of other species of penguins on other islands and parts of Antarctica are also shifting, albeit not as fast, according to recent research by Dr Juarez Martinez and colleagues.

"Spelled differently... how much time do we have until even the penguins that are adapting to climate change start suffering from it?" he said.

Dr Le Bohec said it was important to keep looking at these breeding habits, as it showed how things were changing before populations begin to decline.

"Overall, the long-term outlook will depend on how well penguins can track shifting prey resources in a rapidly warming Southern Ocean," she said.

In addition to climate change, there are other threats to penguins in the sub-Antarctic region such as the H5N1 strain of bird flu.