A personal view of Australian and International Politics

Thursday, 2 April 2026

At least four killed in daytime Russian drone strikes across Ukraine.

Extract from ABC News

Topic:Unrest, Conflict and War

3 hours ago

Firefighters on a roof spraying water onto a large blaze on a neighbouring building. — Russia has carried out a rare daytime drone attack across Ukraine. (Reuters/State Emergency Service of Ukraine)

In short:

Ukrainian regions have been pummelled by daytime drone attacks launched by Russia on Wednesday, local time.

The strikes reportedly killed four in the country's Cherkasy region.

Meanwhile, Estonia and Finland have both reported stray Ukrainian drones destined for Russia entering their airspace.

Russia has launched a rare daytime drone attack on Ukraine, killing at least four people in the central Cherkasy region and damaging energy infrastructure and industrial facilities in the west of the country, according to Ukrainian officials.

Ukraine's air force said the attack consisted of 360 drones launched during the day on Wednesday, local time, of which 345 were shot down. About 700 drones were launched in the span of 24 hours.

Ihor Taburets, the governor of the Cherkasy region, said the four were killed while they were outside during an air alert.

He said the attack was still underway, and urged residents to take shelter.

Officials in the western regions of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, and Zakarpattia also reported drone attacks.

The Ukrainian air force said waves of drones were heading to various regions of Ukraine.

Two small drones on the ground, with a person's hand attaching a rotor blade to one of them. — Both Ukraine and Russia are increasingly embracing drone warfare as the war drags into its fifth year. (Reuters: Valentyn Ogirenko)

Zakarpattia governor Myroslav Biletskyi said Russian drones hit critical infrastructure facilities in the Khust and Uzhhorod districts near the border with Slovakia and Hungary.

Electricity supplies were cut off to about 11,000 customers in the Ivano-Frankivsk region in the west, regional officials said.

The attacks come just days after Russia launched its biggest drone attack in months, signalling the beginning of a renewed spring offensive.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the strikes were Russia's response to a proposed ceasefire over Easter, labelling them "terrorist operations".

"Other signals are needed, and a silence over Easter could be exactly the signal that tells everyone that diplomacy can be successful."

Stray Ukrainian drones enter neighbouring European skies

With the war in its fifth year, both Russia and Ukraine have stepped up their drone attacks.

Such attacks usually take place overnight, when drones are harder to intercept.

Estonia's government on Wednesday announced stray drones from Ukraine that were intended for Russia had entered its airspace this week.

A local broadcaster, ERR, reported that drone debris was later found.

The violations come as Kyiv has intensified attacks on Russia's oil export infrastructure over the past month, including massive strikes on the Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports on the Baltic Sea.

On Wednesday, Ukraine's military said it had struck a Russian missile components production plant in the country's south-west.

A satellite image of a large coastal oil port on fire with large black smoke billowing. — Satellite imagery shows a huge blaze enveloping Russia's Baltic port of Ust-Luga after a Ukrainian attack. (Reuters/Vantor)

On Sunday, a Ukrainian drone crashed in Finland, the first time the Ukraine war spilled onto Finnish soil. Last week, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania reported drones of Ukrainian origin on their territory in connection with attacks on the Russian oil terminal.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Tuesday, local time, that his country was working with the Baltics and Finland to prevent future incidents.

“We are immediately sharing all necessary information, and I can reassure you that we never aimed drones at these countries,” Mr Sybiha said, adding that the incursions were the result of “conscious and deliberate actions by Russia".

With no let up in fighting, and despite global attention having shifted towards the war between Iran and the US, Mr Zelenskyy started online talks with US negotiators on Wednesday.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also joined the talks with special envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner — the son-in-law of US President Donald Trump — and US Senator Lindsey Graham, according to a source talking to Reuters.

"We discussed how to strengthen diplomacy, what steps are possible, as well as security guarantees and engaging the Europeans. It was a positive conversation," Mr Zelenskyy said of the talks in his evening address.

Russia claims to take full control of eastern region

The attack came on Wednesday, local time, and on the same day Russia's defence ministry said it had taken full control of Ukraine's Luhansk region.

Reuters could not independently verify the battlefield report and a Ukrainian military spokesperson said there had been no battlefield changes in the area in the last six months.

Russia has for years controlled more than 99 per cent of Luhansk, one of four Ukrainian regions Russia claimed as its own in 2022.

Kyiv and most Western countries have rejected Russia's claims of annexation as an illegal land grab.

"Units of the 'West' military grouping have completed the liberation of the Luhansk People's Republic," the Defence Ministry said in a statement, using Moscow's preferred name for the region.

Reuters

Wednesday, 1 April 2026

Iran briefing with Matthew Doran: Iran sets 24-hour deadline on threat of strikes against US tech companies.

Extract from ABC News

By Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran in Jerusalem

Topic:Unrest, Conflict and War

10 minutes ago

A satellite image of a data center in the desert. — Attacks on US-owned data centres in the region could disrupt services around the world. (Google, Airbus)

Hello. Here's your daily round-up of the latest headlines from the Middle East, as the war engulfing the region reaches the end of day 32.

Here's what you need to know today:

Iran has launched a new threat against US companies based across the Middle East, warning it will attack them in retaliation for new strikes by the US in Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) listed 18 companies, including tech giants Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel and IBM.
The US defense secretary said there had been a significant drop in the number of Iranian missiles and drones launched in the last 24 hours — the lowest number in the war so far. Pete Hegseth said the next few days will be "decisive", and that "if Iran is wise, they will cut a deal" to end the war.
Donald Trump, once again, used his Truth Social platform to urge countries now worried about fuel shortages to buy it from the United States — or go to the Strait of Hormuz and "TAKE IT", as he once again sought help to open the key shipping lane. He singled out the UK and France for not helping with the war with Iran. Meanwhile, Pakistan and China outlined their blueprint for peace talks and the reopening of the Strait.
European leaders have lined up to demand Israel respect Lebanon's sovereignty and avoid expanding its military operations in the south of the country. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney has gone further, labelling Israel's invasion as illegal. Israel's defense minister, Israel Katz, restated his country's intention to control the entirety of southern Lebanon, from the border with Israel to the Litani River some 30 kilometres north. He's also said all Lebanese homes near the border will be demolished.
Under the cover of the war, the Israeli parliament has approved new laws making death by hanging the default sentence for Palestinians convicted in the country's military justice system of serious, deadly attacks. It has been met with outrage around the world, with the United Nations labelling it "deeply discriminatory". Israel's far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, has welcomed the legislation's passing in the Knesset with wine. Along with other supporters, he'd been wearing a yellow lapel pin in the shape of a noose in the last few weeks of campaigning — an imitation of the yellow ribbons of the Gaza hostage movement.

Here's what all that means

Another day, another deadline — this time issued by the Iranian regime. The IRGC is warning of massive strikes against US businesses, including tech giants and manufacturers such as aircraft company Boeing, in retaliation for further attacks by the US against Iran.

We're now less than 24 hours away from that deadline — the IRGC said the attacks would begin from 8pm Tehran time on Wednesday, which is 3:30am AEDT on Thursday.

The Gulf is home to some of the world's biggest data centres — big tech firms were thinking the region was going to become a powerhouse for the sector. Data centres have already been targeted, and this warning suggests it is just the beginning of those attacks.

At this point in the war, day 32, it seems the word "escalation" has been overused. But this certainly would be another example of that, and could have major ramifications around the world if services are disrupted.

Once again, it shows there's a jarring difference in the rhetoric being thrown around here.

The US president and his key lieutenants insist Iran wants to strike a deal and that its military might has been so seriously degraded that it's on its knees.

Meanwhile, Iran is still maintaining a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz and is once again threatening the Gulf.

The much-discussed "off-ramp" in this war seems further and further down the highway by the day.

And here's the impact on Australia

Will we have enough fuel for Easter? This is traditionally the time drivers would be scanning for cheaper fuel ahead of filling up and heading out on a long weekend road trip. This morning's episode of ABC News Daily looks at whether that's such a great idea (🎧 15m43s).

Family of Zomi Frankcom still waiting for answers two years after death at hands of IDF.

Extract from ABC News

By Katie McAllister and Grace Stranger

Topic:War Victims

11 hours ago

A woman in a cap and T-shirt near a group of children standing in front of a wall. — Zomi Frankom was killed by an IDF strike two years ago. (Facebook)

In short:

Tomorrow, Wednesday April 1, marks two years since Australian woman Zomi Frankcom was killed, along with other aid workers, in an IDF strike in Gaza.

Her family is still waiting for a personal apology and compensation from the Israeli government, as well as the results of an investigation by the Israeli Military Advocate General.

What's next?

Israel's ambassador to Australia said during a National Press Club address today that he would "check" on the progress of the investigation.

For Zomi Frankcom's brother Mal, the second anniversary of her death will be particularly painful.

"Even though she was overseas a lot, we were still very close," he said.

It will be two years ago on Wednesday that Australian aid worker Lalzawmi "Zomi" Frankcom was killed, alongside six of her colleagues, by an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) strike in Gaza.

"There hasn't been any kind of justice served or any movement with the case," Mr Frankcom told Radio National Breakfast.

"It's going to be painful every year, but having that would provide some kind of comfort."

A dark-haired man in a blazer stands near a building lined with a hedge. — Mal Frankcom said he was very close with his sister, Zomi. (ABC News: Callum Flinn)

For two years the Frankcom family has been waiting for answers from an investigation conducted by Israel's Military Advocate General.

"But the updates are that there are no updates," Mr Frankcom said.

The Military Advocate General is responsible for implementing the rule of law within the IDF.

Sally Sara spoke with Mal Frankcom on ABC Radio National Breakfast.

"It's been two years and still nothing's happened and I've also heard that other high profile cases there [in Israel] have since been closed, but this one remains open," Mr Frankcom said.

Faced with uncertainty, he and his family have tried to maintain faith in the system and "hope that justice finds its course".

But that hope is fading.

"Reading the news over the last two years since it's happened, that faith … it gets diminished month on month," Mr Frankcom said.

A bald man in glasses and a dark suit speaks at a lectern. — Hillel Newman spoke at the National Press Club in Canberra on Tuesday. (ABC News: Callum Flinn)

Ambassador says he will 'check' status of probe

In an address to the National Press Club on Tuesday, Israel's ambassador to Australia Hillel Newman denied that the investigation into Ms Frankcom's death had been abandoned.

"I'm the ambassador of Israel — I've never heard that it's been shelved, OK?" he said.

"As far as I know, it has not come to a conclusion. But I will check again.

"The issue of penalising the soldiers who were involved … is a long judicial process."

After Dr Newman's address a spokesperson for the IDF confirmed the investigation was ongoing.

The IDF dismissed two officers over the strike, which it acknowledged violated the the organisation's rules of engagement.

The interior of a gutted car. — The IDF strike laid waste to this vehicle in the convoy. (Supplied: Abdelhakim Abu Riash)

An Australian review of the strike found there was a "significant breakdown in situational awareness" and that the deaths were a result of serious failures to follow IDF procedures.

"All requests for access to information from the IDF were supported, except for the audio of the 90-minute unedited footage of the World Central Kitchen convoy and subsequent strikes," said Mark Binskin, who conducted the review.

The Israeli ambassador emphasised the level of access that Mr Binskin had to IDF intelligence.

"The access that was given to Australia was unprecedented. [Mr Binskin] was given full access to the occurrence itself and to the military interrogation of what happened," he said.

"He drew up a conclusion that was categoric. He wrote his name onto the conclusion that the attack was not intentional."

Gloved hands holding up three bloodied passports. One is British, one Polish and one Australian. — Workers from Britain, Poland and Australia were among those killed in the strike. (AP Photo: Abdel Kareem Hana)

When asked why Mr Binskin did not have access to audio of the drone strike, the ambassador said granting access was up to the IDF, not him.

"I can check why … if they are not releasing it, what is their reason. It could have intelligence aspects. I don't want to guess why," Dr Newman said.

Mr Binskin's report recommended that Israel change the way it deals with groups delivering aid to Palestinian civilians and that the Israeli government apologise to Ms Frankcom's family and provide compensation.

"That still remains outstanding," Mr Frankcom said.

When directly asked if he would apologise to the Frankcom family, the Israeli ambassador to Australia was firm: "Sympathy [has] been expressed."

A blonde, formally dressed woman in glasses stands in a room with a large artwork on the wall. — Independent MP Zali Steggall has written to the Israeli ambassador to request an update on the case. (ABC News: Ian Cutmore)

Calls for Australian government, ambassador to do more

Independent MP for Warringah, Zali Steggall, has written to the Israeli ambassador to Australia calling for answers.

"I urge ambassador Hillel Newman to provide clear answers, including an update on Israel's military investigation, and to offer a formal apology and compensation to Zomi's family," she said.

"And I call on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to take a far tougher stance against Israel and use every diplomatic lever to secure justice over the unlawful killing of an Australian citizen.

"The war in Gaza has been one of the deadliest ever for journalists and aid workers, and those responsible must be held to account."

Mr Albanesemet with Mr Frankcom this afternoon.

The prime minister said he raised the issue directly with Israeli President Isaac Herzogwhen he visited Australia in February.

A smiling woman wearing a dark cap stands near some palm trees in a grassy area between buildings. — Zomi Frankcom was working for the World Central Kitchen aid group when she was killed. (LinkedIn)

Foreign Minister Penny Wong told parliament today she expected transparency in the ongoing investigation.

"We continue to press for full accountability, including any appropriate criminal charges," she said.

In relation to access to the audio recording, Senator Wong said: "We have made representations — during and since the Binskin report — to Israel on this matter, on behalf of the family. We will continue to engage and consult Ms Frankcom's family on their request."

A dark-haired man in a suit sits at an outdoor table and looks at his hands. — Mal Frankcom says the family is considering establishing an humanitarian award in his sister's name. (ABC News: Katie McAllister)

Mr Frankcom said he and his sister had a "very tight relationship".

"We had two and a half years in between us. We grew up in a very tight-knit family. Our mother passed away in 2001 and that kind of bought us closer," he said.

"She was a very happy, positive person."

To commemorate the two-year anniversary of her death, Mr Frankcom will attend a vigil in Sydney.

"I'll say a few words, we'll remember her and tell stories and remember her for the lovely person she was," he said.

Hands holding a phone displaying a picture of a laughing woman. — Mal Frankcom said he and his sister became closer after their mother died. (ABC News: Callum Flinn)

The family is considering partnering with an organisation to start a humanitarian award in Ms Frankcom's name and would put any future compensation towards it.

Bankstown-Canterbury Council has already unveiled a plaque and planted a tree in her honour.

Donald Trump slams 'very unhelpful' France, UK as tensions with allies intensify over Iran war.

Extract from ABC News

By Brad Ryan in Washington DC

Topic:War

2 hours ago

Donald Trump wearing a blue suit and tie gesturing with his right hand while standing at a US presidential lectern — Donald Trump told allies that were concerned about fuel shortages to "go get your own oil". (Reuters: Kevin Lamarque, file)

In short:

US President Donald Trump has told America's allies the "US won't be there to help you anymore" as he again criticised European nations for their refusal to provide more military support for the Iran war.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the coming days will be "decisive" and Iran should "cut a deal" with the US.

But Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened to target US tech companies in the region, telling their employees to stay home to save their lives.

Donald Trump has again attacked America's allies over their reluctance to get involved in the Iran war, warning them the "US won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us".

The US president singled out France and the UK in social media posts, which told "all of those countries that can't get jet fuel" to "build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait [of Hormuz], and just TAKE IT".

"The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!" he wrote.

Donald Trump on Truth Social: "...The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!"

In a second post, Mr Trump said France had been "very unhelpful" after it refused to allow planes carrying military supplies to Israel to fly over French territory. France said its decision was in line with its position since the start of the war, and it was "surprised by this tweet".

Mr Trump has been expressing intensifying frustration with NATO nations and other allies, including Australia, for refusing to provide more military support for the US-Israel operations in Iran.

France, Spain and Italy are among European nations that have refused to let US warplanes use their military bases, according to local reports. The UK has allowed the US to use British bases, but only for "specific and limited defensive operations".

Donald Trump on Truth Social: "France has been VERY UNHELPFUL with respect to the “Butcher of Iran"".

Shortly after Mr Trump's posts, the UK said it would deploy more troops to help Gulf countries facing Iranian attacks.

UK Defence Secretary John Healey, who is visiting the gulf, said extra air defence teams and systems would be sent to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait, and British jets would remain in Qatar.

British media reported the new deployment would boost the UK's troop numbers in the region to about 1,000. The British defence ministry did not confirm those numbers and emphasised the UK was not "getting drawn into the wider war".

Iran threatens US big tech

A month after the war began, Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of the world's oil usually travels — is continuing to batter the global economy.

The US is less dependent on oil imports from the Middle East than other parts of the world, particularly Asia, where some countries are implementing emergency measures to reduce demand for fuel.

But on Tuesday, local time, the average price of petrol in the US tipped over $US4 a gallon ($5.82 a gallon) — a dreaded headline-making threshold that has not been crossed since August, 2022. It had been less than $US3 a gallon on the eve of the war.

Israeli death penalty law discriminatory and may constitute 'war crime', says UN.

Extract from ABC News

Topic:Human Rights

4 minutes ago

Crowds of people clamouring around a bus waving. — Under the new law, Palestinians convicted of deadly attacks classified as "terrorism" will face the death penalty as a default sentence. (AP: Jehad Alshrafi)

In short:

Senior UN figures have sharply criticised the Israeli parliament for a "cruel and discriminatory" death penalty bill.

UN rights chief Volker Turk warned that the law was "patently inconsistent with Israel's international law obligations" and, if applied in the occupied Palestinian territory, it could constitute a war crime.

He urged the Knesset to repeal the legislation.

The United Nations has harshly criticised the Israeli parliament's approval of a "cruel and discriminatory" new death penalty bill, warning that applying it in occupied Palestinian territory "would constitute a war crime".

Under the new law, passed in parliament late on Monday, local time, Palestinians in the occupied West Bank convicted by military courts of deadly attacks classified as "terrorism" will face the death penalty as a default sentence.

Stephane Dujarric, a spokesman for UN chief António Guterres, said the world body stood "against the death penalty in all its aspects, wherever".

"The discriminatory nature of this particular law makes it particularly cruel and discriminatory, and we ask that the Israeli government rescind it and not implement it," Mr Dujarric told reporters in New York.

UN rights chief Volker Turk also called for the bill to be "promptly repealed", warning that it was "patently inconsistent with Israel's international law obligations".

Because Palestinians in the territory are automatically tried in Israeli military courts, the measure effectively creates a separate and harsher legal track.

In Israeli civilian courts, the law allows for either death or life imprisonment for those convicted of killing with intent to harm the state.

Israel has only applied the death penalty twice — in 1948, soon after the state's founding, against a military captain accused of high treason, and in 1962, when Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann was hanged.

Mr Turk stressed that "the death penalty is profoundly difficult to reconcile with human dignity", cautioning that "its application in a discriminatory manner would constitute an additional, particularly egregious violation of international law".

"Its application to residents of the occupied Palestinian territory would constitute a war crime."

Benjamin Netanyahu looking stern at a press conference. — Benjamin Netanyahu was in the chamber, which erupted in cheers when the vote passed. (Reuters: Jonathan Ernst)

The UN rights chief also expressed alarm at another bill currently before the Knesset aimed at establishing a special military court exclusively to prosecute crimes committed during and in the aftermath of Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack inside Israel, which sparked the war in Gaza.

That court would not have jurisdiction over crimes committed by Israeli forces in the occupied Palestinian territory.

Tuesday, 31 March 2026

Insiders profit as Iran war pressure points build on global economy.

Extract from ABC News

Analysis

By Ian Verrender

Topic:Economic Trends and Indicators

3 hours ago

A satellite view in colour of the Strait of Hormuz. — More than a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies remain trapped in the Persian Gulf. (Supplied: Sentinel Hub)

Winners are thin on the ground right now.

In a case of rather unfortunate timing, US President Donald Trump last week scheduled Easter Monday as the day he would "unleash hell" should Iran's leaders reject his latest peace plan.

That was after his initial two-day deadline turned into a week-long affair before he extended it another 10 days, once again causing wild gyrations on global markets that led to some highly unusual but extremely profitable trading.

Black swan for the AI boom?

Some call it a black swan event — a life-altering wave of chaos completely out of left field.

Except, after the two oil crises of the 1970s, energy industry analysts and diplomats worldwide have spent decades war-gaming the potential impact of a Middle East meltdown.

The only unexpected element to the current conflagration is that America has led the charge.

For decades, ever since Iran captured US embassy staff and held them hostage for more than a year, various administrations have debated an Iran attack.

While there were some naval skirmishes in the Persian Gulf in the 1980s, the idea of a full-scale war was repeatedly rejected because of the potential hit to the global economy from an oil blockade.

Until now.

Those with long memories were always quick to remind senior officials that it was a CIA-orchestrated coup in Tehran that unseated an elected leader and installed the shah, helping create hostilities.

But the war itself could now spawn further black swan events, particularly in the world of technology, AI and on global capital markets.

Fuel and fertiliser shortages have dominated coverage of the Persian Gulf closure. But in the world of chip manufacturing, helium and sulphur are key ingredients — much of which is also sourced from the Gulf.

A closeup photo of a computer chip — Elements used in computer chip manufacturing are sourced from the Gulf. (Supplied: UNSW)

Helium is produced from LNG and, due to the extensive damage to Qatar's massive facility, is likely to be in short supply for who knows how long.

Spot sulphur prices, meanwhile, have been soaring.

Long before the chemical shortages, which ultimately will push up AI development costs, there were serious concerns about whether the huge amount of cash already invested in AI would deliver the kinds of returns that justify the outlay.

Added to those concerns is the expected hike in the cost of energy globally.

Data centres are springing up like mushrooms across the developed world. Australia already has about 250 which, according to the Climate Energy Council, already consume about 2 per cent of grid power.

But planned new data centres are much bigger, with one in Sydney expected to consume as much as a small city, using the equivalent of almost half the power from Victoria's Loy Yang A coal power plant if just two of them run at full capacity.

Data centre power consumption is expected to rise to 6 per cent of the grid by 2030 and 11 per cent by 2035, growth targets that may well be hindered by a sudden one-off surge in power generation.

Any cut to the ambitious growth forecasts is unlikely to play out well on stock markets that have concentrated on one sector for so long.

We want more, money market tells Trump

Cracks are already beginning to emerge in America's monetary position as it burns through its diplomatic credibility and depletes its firepower with the constant bombardment of Iran.

Debt now sits at an uncomfortable $US39 trillion and, at the most recent auction last week, there was noticeably weaker demand for US government bonds.

A close up of Donald Trump. — Donald Trump has been demanding US Federal Reserve cut interest rates. (Reuters: Elizabeth Frantz)

That has been reflected on money markets. Weaker demand for government IOUs means that interest rates must rise to make them more attractive to buyers.

The yield, or interest rate, on US 10-year bonds has soared in the past month by more than a double rate hike. Investors are now fetching more than 4.4 per cent.

That's a marker for where investors see inflation and interest rates heading.

It also makes life harder for Trump.

For the past year, he has demanded the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, a demand that if met now would cause chaos within the global monetary system.

Those higher rates will increase the soaring cost of servicing America's already huge debt and will need to be paid for by, you guessed it, issuing even more debt.

On this side of the Pacific, the trend has been even more painful. Australian 10-year government bonds are now sitting well above 5 per cent as global growth prospects dim.

Just yesterday, Westpac chief economist and former Reserve Bank assistant governor Luci Ellis predicted three more rate hikes, an inflation rate of 5.4 per cent and unemployment rising to 5 per cent.

Ouch.

In the know? Or just a psychic?

It took barely a minute to complete.

Last week, at 6:49am Monday, New York time, a huge volume of oil futures contracts was pushed through the market.

Oil tankers and cargo ships at sea — Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz. (AP: Altaf Qadri)

By 6:50am, about $US580 million worth of contracts covering Brent crude, the global benchmark, and West Texas intermediate changed hands, sending prices into free fall, dropping from just under $US100 a barrel to $US89.

Minutes later, Donald Trump announced, via his own social network platform Truth Social: "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" with Tehran over a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities.

Hours later, Tehran refuted the claims and oil prices began climbing, sparking calls for an investigation into the trading.

"This appears abnormal, for sure," XAnalysts chief oil analyst Mukesh Sahdev told the BBC.

"At that time, there were no indications that any serious talks had been taking place between the US and Iran.

"So, to place so much money on oil going down raises questions."

With the president continually lurching from one extreme position to another, financial and commodity markets have been extraordinarily volatile for much of the past year, ever since his Liberation Day tariffs announcement sent Wall Street plunging almost 10 per cent.

But a new crypto-based avenue has also opened the door to high-stakes gambling on presidential decisions, Polymarket.

A new study by Columbia Law School and the University of Haifa has examined the blockchain ledger in search of odd trading patterns and discovered transactions generating profits of about $US143 million.

"The idea that someone would trade on national security information or information about upcoming terrorist activity — people thought that's not even possible," Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia and one of the co-authors told Bloomberg.

"Today what we're seeing in these prediction markets is that actually it is quite possible."