A personal view of Australian and International Politics
Contemporary politics,local and international current affairs, science, music and extracts from the Queensland Newspaper "THE WORKER" documenting the proud history of the Labour Movement.
MAHATMA GANDHI ~ Truth never damages a cause that is just.
The thievery of these little creatures is endlessly amusing to me, but there have been, I’m told, a few rounds of inconvenience.
The
thing is, I’m fortunate to live in that lush green valley, but my
neighbours are inveterate kleptomaniacs. A guest who was visiting for
the Cygnet folk festival this summer had left some laundry out on my
landlady’s deck to dry in the sun, and as my landlady turned the corner,
she saw the pair of knickers disappearing slowly between the wooden
deck slats. She dived to rescue the knickers; the thief scuttled away
beneath the deck. I learned early on that leaving shoes out at night was
to kiss your shoes goodbye.
(And in the day, the landlady’s dog will steal your shoes, so they aren’t safe day or night.)
The thing is, I adore
my neighbours. Tassie devils have a penchant for non-compliance and
their preferred method of communication is bloodcurdling screams. Now
that I’m in my 40s, I can relate.
Sarcophilus harrisii,
or “Harris’s flesh-lover”, are the world’s largest carnivorous
marsupial, and they bear zero resemblance to Taz, the spinning tornado
of a cartoon I grew up watching.
As a person
who was born in North America, my nearest mental image is “small bear”,
in the way the body moves – somewhat lumbering and by all appearances
not very flexible. A pit bull may be more accurate to imagine the size
and strength of these little creatures, but their jaw strength, as I
learned recently at the Tasmanian Devil Unzoo, is that of four
pit bulls. And they lumber, or bound, because their heads are so heavy
that their hind legs have evolved to be short: they are top-heavy, and
would simply fall on their faces if the hind end didn’t compensate.
It
was moderately hopeful to learn that, though the populations of devils
have been decimated by facial tumour disease, there are protected
populations on both the Tasman Peninsula and Maria Island: each of these
populations, while small, are free of the disease, and there is thought
to be enough genetic variation to keep these populations healthy.
However, despite conservation gains, they are still classified as
endangered.
Last year, it was a delight to peek out from my tiny house
window and see a young devil right in the driveway. It was dusk, and
the little creature was young and fearless enough to pause before it
dived beneath the deck. It was cute as a puppy, but I wouldn’t try to
get closer than that, because I value my hands, and their bite force can
amputate bone.
Upon first landing in
Tasmania, I remember reading an oldish novel where the terrifying
monster in the basement was a Tasmanian devil, and now that I’ve seen
them, I think the author had probably never been to this island, because
the creature in the darkness was far larger and more terrifying than
these little imps. Imp is actually the name for a young devil. Accurate.
The
thievery of these little creatures is endlessly amusing to me, but
there have been, I’m told, a few rounds of inconvenience. Expensive
hiking boots have had to be hauled out from beneath the house with a
boat hook: with them came cushions from deck chairs that had come from
neighbours down the road, and linens that could have made up a picnic.
I
once read that devils had stolen something like 40 polar fleeces on
Maria Island and stashed them in a great nest beneath the old
Penitentiary buildings, but now I can’t find that story and wonder if
I’ve made it up – or perhaps someone else did. Headlines say “stealing
chocolate”, “stealing dog toys” and “stealing hiking boots”.
Only
a few weeks ago, as I was heading into my house after dark, a rumble
came from the hedge, about a metre away. If you’ve ever had the
frustrated joy of starting up a small lawn mower, the kind where you
have to yank a handle on a string, where it goes ruMMM-Rumm,
before it actually catches and starts up: that was the song of the
critter in the hedge. One of the Unzoo keepers suggested it may have
been a quoll rather than a devil. It is a busy hedge, and as my landlady
graciously says of this hill: “We are but the latest inhabitants.”
The refinery, located just 16 kilometres from the Kremlin, was hit in one of Ukraine's largest attacks on Moscow to date.
Thick plumes of smoke with flames rise from an oil refinery following a Ukrainian drone attack. (Reuters: Social media)
At the start of the war, Ukraine did not have weapons capable of reaching the Russian capital.
But
after continuously developing and evolving mostly locally made
long-range drones, it is now reaching deeper into Russian territory.
The
recent attack reportedly involved a mix of propeller-driven drones and
jet-powered "missile" drones, which are more powerful and can travel at
faster speeds.
Kyiv claims its increasing ability to strike targets across Moscow is evidence it is turning the tide of the war.
Boost in long-range capabilities
At the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine struggled to convince the United States and European allies to provide it with long-range weapons.
Many countries were hesitant, wanting to avoid escalating the conflict into a direct confrontation with Russia.
So Ukraine began boosting the development and production of its own long-range drones and missiles.
An FP-1 long-range Ukrainian drone at a production facility. (Reuters: Valentyn Ogirenko)
Ukraine's Ministry of Defence said in 2022 it had the ability to strike at a range of about 630km.
In
April, it said its long-range weapons were now "successfully
destroying" Russia's military equipment "at a distance of about
1,750km".
Matthew Sussex,
associate professor in strategic studies at Deakin University's Centre
for Future Defence and National Security, said Ukraine's long-range
strike capabilities were constantly evolving.
"They've got this multitude of drones that they use," Dr Sussex told the ABC.
"It's estimated that the ones they're using against Moscow have about 30 kilos worth of explosives, which is very decent.
"Now there are some more modern types that are jet-propelled that can carry bigger payloads."
A long-range Ukrainian Peklo missile drone on display in 2024. (Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
'Missile drone' makes appearance
In
addition to the conventional drones typically used in long-range
strikes against Russian targets, local Ukrainian media reported Kyiv had
used its jet-powered missile drones during the June 18 attack.
Some defence analysts said videos circulating online also appeared to show jet-propelled, one-way attack drones were used.
Jet-propelled drones typically use compact turbojet engines and can be launched from ground-based platforms and aircraft.
Fire and smoke rise from a building following a Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow. (Reuters: Social media)
Ukraine's Bar drone, a so-called "drone-missile", had been cited in reports.
Dr Sussex said Ukraine unveiled the Bar in April 2025.
"It's
being referred to as a missile drone, but frankly, every missile is a
drone effectively and every drone is a missile," he said.
"It's effectively a medium-range missile that's fairly manoeuvrable because it's got a turbo-jet engine."
The Bar flies at about 800km/h and can carry an estimated payload of between 50kg to 100kg, he added.
Ukrainian drones evaded air defences and hit an oil refinery in Moscow. (Reuters: social media)
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, its air defences downed 555 drones across the country overnight.
At least 194 drones were intercepted on approach to Moscow.
Dr Sussex said the volume of drones launched and the mix of different types would have helped scramble Russia's air defences.
In
addition to striking one of Russia's largest refineries, which produces
more than a third of the Moscow region's fuel, Ukrainian drones hit a
residential building in the town of Zhukovsky.
The attack also temporarily halted flights from four Moscow airports, leaving more than 500 flights delayed or cancelled.
Ukraine sends message to civilians
Moscow has been periodically hit by drones since May 2023, when two of them reached the Kremlin itself, without causing damage.
Kyiv's attacks across Russian territory were largely aimed at crippling the oil industry that helps finance Russia's war effort.
But Ukraine has also signalled its intention to send a message to ordinary Russians.
"One
of the most popular questions asked by Muscovites this morning is 'What
is going on?' I can answer," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha
posted on X.
"Your country started a war of aggression against ours. For years, it has been killing our people.
"Now that you know what's going on, ask Putin when he is planning to end it."
Konstantin,
a local walking near the oil refinery in Moscow's south-eastern
Kapotnya district after it was struck, told AFP he had "never seen
anything like it".
Valentina, a 29-year-old manager, said she was woken up by the noise.
"It's really scary," she told the news agency.
People stand in front of an apartment building damaged during a Ukrainian drone attack in the Moscow region. (Reuters: Stringer)
John
Lough, associate fellow of the Chatham House Russia and Eurasia
Programme, said the war was starting to hit home for Russian civilians.
"The population is clearly becoming concerned and frustrated by this," he told ABC Radio National's AM.
"In
some places in the country where they've had repeated drone attacks,
people are feeling that they really don't have adequate defences.
"Since
this war was supposed to improve Russia's security, I think many people
could see there is a big gap between what Putin is saying and what's
actually happening."
He said he wanted Russians to put pressure on Mr Putin for the consequences of Europe's worst conflict since World War II.
Vyacheslav
Volodin, speaker of the lower house of Russia's parliament, warned that
Moscow would respond by ramping up its strikes.
"Their
action will lead to our counteraction and launching harsher blows, with
more powerful weapons," Mr Volodin said in televised remarks.
Jim
Townsend, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American
Security, said the war had been shifting in Ukraine's favour and it
would likely be weighing on the Russian president.
"They
[Ukraine] have developed the drone warfare to not only help them on the
battlefield against the Russians, but have the long-range strike
capability to bring the war to Russia," he told ABC News Channel.
"So
as more and more Russians see these dark clouds over their cities from
burning oil refineries, Putin might be looking for a way out."
What
has been revealed is the glaring gap between reality and the deluded
mindset in the Trump administration that believes it is not only in
control of Israel, but the wider world. (Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein)
As
more detail has emerged about the "understanding" signed by Iran and
the United States this week, the more analysts have been shocked by just
how high a strategic and financial price Donald Trump was prepared to
pay to get the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
That is, just how diabolically bad a "deal" this really is.
But
what has also been revealed has been the glaring gap between reality
and the deluded mindset in the Trump administration that believes it is
not only in control of Israel, but the wider world.
A naive, foolish and reckless act
"The
United States of America", point seven of the US-Iran agreement says,
"undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic
Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council
resolutions, i.e. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of
Governors resolutions and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and
secondary, in an agreed upon schedule".
Er, pardon? The US is committing the United Nations to drop its sanctions against Iran?
The
US didn't run the UN, even in the days when it believed in it. And
needless to say there is no suggestion that anyone actually ran this
idea past members of the UN.
Those
UN sanctions commit all member countries to comply with them. The EU
confirmed this week that it would not be "automatically" dropping its
sanctions.
And neither, apparently, will Australia.
But
the US committing the UN to blindly follow its actions seems a much
less naive, foolish and reckless act than committing Israel to do so.
Vice-President JD Vance has slammed critics of the Iran deal in Israel, saying "Trump is your only ally". (REUTERS : Nathan Howard)
Point
one of the agreement says: "The United States of America and the
Islamic Republic of Iran, and their allies in the current war, by
signing this MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of
military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake
from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against
each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each
other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of
Lebanon.
"The final deal will
confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in
Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph."
By
Friday, Israel's actions in Lebanon — notably an escalated attack on
Thursday night (Australian time) which led to a fierce battle with
Hezbollah in which many IDF troops were reportedly killed or injured —
caused Pakistani-moderated talks in Switzerland between Iran and a US
delegation led by Vice-President JD Vance to be suspended.
That provokes all new questions about the rest of the deal.
But
perhaps more importantly it reflects the reality that no amount of
yelling or insults by Trump or Vance is likely to change Israel's
actions any time soon.
There
was considerable shock this week about some of the things the president
and vice-president were saying about Israel, its prime minister,
Benjamin Netanyahu, and his cabinet ministers, let alone about Iran.
"You don't have to knock down a building every time somebody walks into it that's from Hezbollah," Trump said this week.
Vance told the New York Times that Israel is "a country of nine million people".
"You can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have."
Trump
also ventured a new view of the equity of war, saying that "it's a
little bit unfair" for Iran not to have ballistic missiles if other
countries have them.
These comments reflect just how many shifts in the tectonic plates are going on right now.
Displaced people return to their home in Bir Al-Salasil, Tyre district in southern Lebanon. (Reuters: Aziz Taher)
Israel fights on
On
the US side, it has suddenly got a big interest in stopping Israel's
incursions into Lebanon, a position Iran clearly understands and will
exploit to get the US to maximise pressure on Israel, just as
aggressively as it is doing with its direct control over the Strait of
Hormuz.
Unfortunately for the
US, the world, and the poor Lebanese people being killed and displaced,
Israel now has perhaps an even bigger interest in not stopping.
The
state of play caused by the joint US and Israeli war on Iran has
confirmed that the US doesn't want to get involved in a direct war with
Iran again. It just wants it to stop — at least enough to get the Strait
of Hormuz opened.
The highest
possible incentive — political self-interest — rests behind this: the US
mid-term elections, and the sudden insight of the US president that
ongoing war would mean an "economic catastrophe".
In
strategic terms, Israel's long-term tussle with Iran for dominance of
the region is now concentrated in the belt of land on its northern
border via Hezbollah — an Iranian proxy which seems likely to be getting
a lot more financial and logistical support from its backer as
sanctions are lifted.
And while
domestic politics in the US — as opposed to belatedly comprehended
strategic interests — tell even Trump that US interests don't lie in
continuing a war with Iran, domestic politics in Israel runs in
completely the other direction.
The
domestic political considerations in Israel are much more complex than
simply being a question about the future of Netanyahu.
The
Israeli PM has this week faced trenchant criticism across the political
spectrum in Israel — not just from the far right — for what is seen as
the failure of his war strategy.
But that doesn't imply, though, that the argument is for stopping its military campaigns.
If
anything, he is accused of not having gone hard enough in Lebanon, or
of being too willing to appease Trump by stopping direct attacks on
Iran.
Opposition politicians responded to the peace deal by pledging to go even harder.
The
discussion in Israel about Lebanon is not framed in terms of the fact
it has invaded another country, has displaced up to one million people,
and is now systematically razing kilometres of villages in the south.
It is framed as being purely about protecting northern Israel.
It
perpetually presents itself as the victim, in language that outsiders
can find jarring with the reality they see on their televisions.
For
example, Israel's ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter posted
on X on Friday that Israel remains "committed to the ceasefire
agreement reached between Israel, Lebanon and the US", a ceasefire which
has appeared a questionable concept over the past month.
"If Hezbollah does not violate the agreement, it will be kept," he wrote.
"Under
all circumstances, Israel retains its right to respond to attacks
against it and to thwart threats to its territory, citizens and
soldiers."
The message from
Israeli leaders has been clear and consistent from immediately after the
US-Iran deal was first announced at the beginning of the week: Israel
not only has no intention of stopping the fighting, it also has no
intention of respecting Lebanon's borders or withdrawing.
Israeli
Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Monday: "Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu and I are leading a clear policy that states that the IDF will
remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza — indefinitely —
in order to protect the border and Israeli communities from there
against jihadist elements."
Just
to put what has been happening in perspective, Al Jazeera reported
earlier this week that the "security zones" to protect Israeli
communities have expanded by approximately 1,000 square kilometres in
Gaza, Southern Lebanon and southern Syria, since October 7, 2023.
"This
newly controlled territory amounts to roughly 5 per cent of Israel's
total landmass prior to October 2023, which includes the occupied
Palestinian territories and the occupied Syrian Golan Heights", Al
Jazeera noted. (That is, including land that countries like Australia
which now recognise a Palestinian state also do not regard as belonging
to Israel.)
'Wake up and smell the reality'
Vance
said on Friday that "Donald J Trump is the only head of state in the
entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment
in time".
To be frank, he is probably right.
In
his remarks directed at Israeli ministers, Vance also observed: "Over
the last three months, two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have
protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for
by American tax dollars ... anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest
problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell
the reality."
This was seen as a direct threat that the US may do the previously unthinkable and stop providing US weapons to Israel.
If things progress as they are, that might well be the case.
But
a bit like thinking bombing Iran can bring down the regime, there are
considerable hazards in thinking such a move would necessarily force
Israel to back down.
Remember
the interview Netanyahu gave a month ago to the American 60 Minutes
program in which he boasted that "we're going to change the Middle
East"?
"I now see the
possibility of the expansion and the deepening of the agreements we do
have to alliances with Arab states of the kind that we never even
dreamed of," he said.
It was time Israel "weaned ourselves" off the $US3.8 billion ($4.2 billion) a year of military aid Israel gets from the US.
The reality that US support can no longer be presumed seems to now just be dawning in Israel. (Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein)
The
clear implication was that it would get more funding support from the
Gulf states to support its military as US aid wound down.
It
was only a month ago. It seemed a pretty wild idea then. As the Gulf
states have been pragmatically trying to work out how to improve their
relationships with Iran since then, it seems a completely fantastical
one now.
But it is important to
understand just how far from the rest of the world's reality Israel's
internal discussion now rests. It has been built on the basis of
confidence that the US would always support it.
The reality that the support can no longer be presumed seems to now just be dawning in Israel.
But
just as Netanyahu's claims to be able to influence Trump have now
become a burden to him, Trump's limited capacity to influence Netanyahu
spells just as much trouble for peace in the Middle East.
Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says heavy drone attacks on Russia are
retaliation for a strike that damaged a historic monastery in Kyiv this
week.
"If Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn," Mr Zelenskyy said, as attacks continued.
Scores
of drones targeted Moscow overnight in what was Ukraine's largest
attack on the Russian capital, hitting an oil refinery for the second
time this week.
"We don't want
this war, we never did, and everyone knows it, and our partners know
it," Mr Zelenskyy said in a voice message to reporters on a WhatsApp
group.
At least 10 people were
killed on Monday across Ukraine in a drone and missile attack that
damaged the 1,000-year-old Kyiv Pechersk Lavra monastery.
Ten people were killed in the attack on the monastery. (Reuters: Thomas Peter)
Zelenskyy pressures Putin
Mr Zelenskyy was due to attend a meeting of Ukraine's military allies in Brussels on Thursday.
He
said the supply of air defences to Ukraine through a NATO program and
the creation of an anti-ballistic missile system by Ukraine and its
allies would be discussed at the meeting.
Mr
Zelenskyy called on Europe and the United States to increase pressure
on Russia through sanctions on Russia's defence and energy sectors and
broader economy to force President Vladimir Putin into ending the war.
"Everyone
needs to put pressure on Putin: Ukrainians, absolutely all the
Europeans, Americans, and Russians — it's time to sober up and put
pressure on their leader,"
he said.
The
Russian Defence Ministry said that its air defences overnight shot down
555 Ukrainian drones over multiple regions, with almost 200 intercepted
as they were approaching Moscow.
That was about double the number of drones that Russia launched at Ukraine overnight, according to the Ukrainian air force.
Mr Zelenskyy said the Moscow attack was part of Ukraine's efforts to force Mr Putin to the negotiating table.
Fires rage at Moscow refinery
Thick plumes of smoke were seen over Moscow after the Ukrainian drone attack. (Reuters: Social media)
Video showed smoke and flames around the Moscow Oil Refinery, located about 15 kilometres from the Kremlin.
"One
of the most popular questions asked by Muscovites this morning is,
'What is going on?'" Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said in a
post on X.
"I can answer. Your
country started a war of aggression against ours. For years, it has been
killing our people. Now that you know what's going on, ask Mr Putin
when he is planning to end it."
Ukrainian drones hit an oil refinery in Moscow yesterday. (Reuters: Social media)
The
refinery is one of Russia's biggest, according to its official website,
and produces more than a third of the Moscow region's fuel.
It was last attacked by Ukrainian drones on Tuesday, catching fire, but officials said the blaze was swiftly put out.
Flights from four Moscow airports were temporarily halted, transport and aviation authorities said.
In
the greater Moscow region, a drone hit a residential building in the
town of Zhukovsky, according to Governor Andrei Vorobyov.
Buildings elsewhere were damaged by drone debris, injuring 17 people, including two children, he added.
Rockhampton Zoo's chimpanzee, Sile, dropped baby Cassie in the hours after birth, fracturing its femur.
The newborn is now in a cast and staff are hand-rearing it.
What's next?
Despite the fall, keepers say mum and baby are doing well, but cannot say for certain when they can be fully reunited.
Donated
colostrum or breastmilk can be a lifesaver for human babies, but it is
also keeping a newborn chimpanzee alive in central Queensland.
When the Rockhampton Zoo welcomed a new baby chimp last week the team was overjoyed.
However,
zoo curator and chimpanzee specialist, Blair Chapman, said the
19-year-old first-time mother, alpha female Sile, struggled to carry its
new young and accidentally dropped the hours-old baby from a height,
fracturing its femur.
"She just didn't understand how to carry her properly,"
he said.
Baby Cassie is now in a cast after its mother accidentally dropped it. (Supplied: Rockhampton Regional Council)
"She's doing overall well. She just has a lot to learn."
Mr Champman said after a flurry of vet visits and x-rays, the baby was fitted with a cast and was being hand-reared.
"Hand-raising is a very last resort with chimps," he said.
"She is under our care at the moment while she recovers, but the ultimate goal is to get her back with mum."
Cassie is the zoo's first baby chimpanzee born in six years. (Supplied: Rockhampton Regional Council)
The
baby's care involves 24-hour treatment, ensuring the infant meets all
its milestones, doing exercises and keeping its leg elevated.
It also needed to be fed, which is where an unlikely hero stepped in.
Cherie Rutherford is a councillor with the Rockhampton Regional Council, which owns the zoo.
Cr
Rutherford said a pregnant woman, Cassie, who is also a zoo
"supporter", happily donated colostrum for the baby, to top up the
two-hourly formula feeds.
Colostrum is a nutrient-dense first form of breastmilk.
Blair Chapman says while healing well, baby Cassie still has a long road of recovery ahead. (Supplied: Rockhampton Regional Council)
"That gives her [the baby] best chance of having all the right antibodies," Cr Rutherford said.
"Chimpanzees
share 98 per cent of their DNA with humans, so that's a really good
thing that Cassie has been able to have that colostrum."
The
new arrival was named Cassie, after both the woman who donated the
colostrum and chimpanzee Cassius, who lived at the zoo for decades
before its death last year.
"He
was a beautiful soul and we thought it was very, very fitting that the
new baby Cassie carries his name," Cr Rutherford said.
Keepers say the chimpanzees have responded positively after meeting baby Cassie several times through a barrier. (Supplied: Rockhampton Regional Council)
Baby, mum, recovering well
Despite
the rough start, Cr Rutherford said baby Cassie was having positive
interactions with mum, Sile, and the troop, through a barrier.
"[Cassie] comes to visit each day with her mum and also with the rest of the troop," she said.
"Wraps that she [Cassie] uses are also brought up to Sile, so that she's getting used to the baby's smell."
Mr
Champman said the infant was "very genetically valuable", given her
mother was from a different genetic line in Germany and her father,
Alon, from Israel.
Blair Chapman says baby chimpanzee Cassie's genetics are considered very valuable. (Supplied: Rockhampton Regional Council)
"He
is also unrelated to the rest of the chimpanzee groups in Australasia,
so those two together, she is a very genetically valuable."
The
new arrival comes a month after another of the troop's female chimps,
Mary, delivered stillborn twins, which Cr Rutherfod said was an
"extremely sad" time.
"Our keepers, they feel that very deeply and they know there's always a risk that could happen," she said.
Blair Chapman (left) and Cherie Rutherford says despite the rough start, both mum and baby are doing well. (Supplied: Rockhampton Regional Council)
"Everyone was excited for Sile, but also extremely cautious and anxious."
Baby Cassie brings the troop up to eight members in total, with four males and four females.
Donald Trump's stated aims in Iran have not been met. (Reuters: Ludovic Marin)
The
agreement between the United States and Iran fits with a pattern from
Donald Trump where the signing of a deal appears to be the major goal
and the details often seem a distant secondary consideration.
Overall,
this war has been a disaster. More than 3,400 people have been killed,
tens of thousands of homes damaged or destroyed, and havoc wrought
across the globe through reduced food and energy supplies, particularly
in some of the poorest parts of the world.
It
has also been a disaster for Trump. It's been hugely unpopular with
Americans, even with some of his own working-class constituency who have
been hit hard by higher petrol and food prices.
With
this new Iran deal, it's worth remembering this is the same president
who hosted the first meeting of his new Board of Peace on February 19
this year.
Nine days later, on
February 28, the inaugural host of the Board of Peace chose to begin a
war against Iran that engulfed many in the Middle East.
He
made that choice on the claim that Iran posed "an imminent threat" to
the US. That's a claim that many prominent figures in the US, including
Trump's now-former director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard,
have since distanced themselves from or refused to endorse.
Enormous damage
At
that Board of Peace meeting, Trump claimed that he had got pledges from
member countries for billions of dollars in aid for Gaza.
The
details of any reconstruction of Gaza are still confused. Gaza remains a
humanitarian catastrophe after Israel rendered it largely unliveable
from more than two years of heavy bombing.
It appears that once Trump brokered that deal on Gaza he moved on, with Gaza now largely left to fend for itself.
A
pattern has emerged: what appears to matter for Trump is the
"announcement effect" that comes with a signature on a deal. The
substance takes second place.
Months after Donald Trump convened his Board of Peace, plans to help Gaza remain confused. (Reuters: Denis Balibouse)
In
terms of this new deal with Iran, it is, of course, a good thing that
the US and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding and agreed to
cease the war. There was a ceasefire of sorts in place, but it was a
fragile one.
This memorandum amounts to a real ceasefire so that in the subsequent 60 days the details can be negotiated.
Under
the deal, Iranian funds that have been frozen by the US will be
released in phases. If, for example, Iran enables the retrieval of its
remaining supplies of enriched uranium, then Tehran will be rewarded by a
partial lifting of sanctions.
It's
good that parties are hopeful that this might signal a new era in which
Iran becomes part of the international economic and diplomatic
community.
But it's important
to keep it in perspective. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu started this war, which has caused enormous damage to Iran,
Israel, the gulf states, the Middle East more generally, the global
economy and America's standing and credibility around the world.
Aims not reached
So today when we look across the landscape of the Middle East upon the signing of this deal, what do we see?
The
Iranian regime has not been replaced, as Israel had wanted, but
hardened. In fact, it's arguable that the new supreme leader, Mojtaba
Khamenei, is more hardline than his father, Ali Khamenei, who was killed
early in this war.
Ali
Khamenei was close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the
military hardliners who largely run the country, but Mojtaba Khamenei
actually served in the IRGC. He is in part a product of the IRGC and
their ruthless culture that any dissent within the country must be put
down in whichever way is necessary.
Iran's
overall military capability has been reduced, but the war — which some
independent analysts estimate to have cost the US as much as $US1
billion a day — has also seriously depleted US and Israeli supplies of
munitions and missile interceptors.
Iran's
ballistic missile capability has not been destroyed, as was one of the
aims of the US and Israel, and Iran's proxies through the region,
particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, still have
military capability.
And the big one: Iran's nuclear program has not been ended, which was the aim constantly stated by Trump.
This
memorandum makes no commitment on behalf of Iran. Rather, it means that
for the next 60 days the US and Iran will negotiate over this.
The
trend is in: The first 18 months of Trump 2.0 shows that this president
is certainly good at signing deals and executive orders, but when it
comes to difficult international issues he either cannot resolve them as
he promised he could (such as the Ukraine war, which he said during his
presidential campaign that he would solve in 24 hours) or he postpones
rather than resolves them, such as Gaza and Iran.
Continuing occupation
On
the Gaza ceasefire, Trump claimed that he'd done something that others
had not been able to do for thousands of years, bring peace to the
Middle East.
That was, of course, nonsense. He didn't bring peace to the Middle East.
Firstly,
he didn't bring any sort of resolution between the Israelis and
Palestinians. And not long after, he started a new war with Iran.
He
put his own Trumpian hyperbole on that Gaza deal, but he did not
address one of the underlying causes of the ongoing conflict in that
part of the Middle East: Israel's insistence that it continues its
military occupation of the West Bank and Gaza.
That
Israeli military occupation is, of course, not the only cause of
conflicts in the Middle East, but for anyone who has studied the region
and is able to look objectively at Israel's occupation, it feeds so much
of the conflict through the region.
Jasmine El-Gamal has advised the Pentagon on the Middle East. She's regarded as one of the leading analysts on the region.
She
told me for a Four Corners program, The Big War, in 2024: "What we know
is that Iran and all of its proxies use that conflict. Whether it's
disingenuous or not, it doesn't matter. The fact is, they use that
conflict as justification for their aggression in the region, for their
actions. Israel will never be safe as long as it continues the
occupation."
Former
Australian prime minister John Howard came to a similar view. He said
in 2006 that the war between Hezbollah and Israel was not the root cause
of conflict in the Middle East.
He
said: "Australians want the fighting to stop and Australia also wants
everybody to address the root cause of the problem, and the root cause
of the problem is still, in the whole of the Middle East, is still the
settlement of the Palestinian issue."
Leaders clash
One of the interesting consequences of the war has been the serious strain in the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu.
In recent weeks Trump has had ferocious phone calls with Netanyahu.
In
one, the details of which Trump confirmed, he told Netanyahu that
"you're f**king crazy" and that "you'd be in prison if it weren't for
me".
The "prison" comment was a
reference to corruption charges against Netanyahu, which Trump has
publicly tried to pressure Israeli authorities to drop.
Vice-President
JD Vance is also reported by Israeli media to have yelled at Netanyahu
over the surge in violence by Jewish settlers against Palestinians in
the West Bank.
Aaron David Miller, a former US government adviser on the Middle East, said the public comments were "quite extraordinary".
"No US president has ever talked about an Israeli prime minister in the way that Trump has," he recently told US media.
"It's worth remembering that Donald Trump is still more popular than Netanyahu in Israel."
Israelis regard their relationship with the US as their most important one.
The
fact this war has seen such public criticisms by the US president
against their own prime minister will only increase anxiety.
And so Trump has captured another signature, another deal. But as with Gaza, the underlying issues remain unresolved.
It's
possible that over the next 60 days a deal is struck that brings Iran
into the international community. But for the moment, many will see this
as all about Donald Trump cleaning up a mess he made.
