Extract from The Guardian
David Crisafulli’s government is a triumph of pragmatism over purpose, but cracks have appeared that could have consequences beyond the state border
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In a political era where conservative parties seem intent on tearing themselves apart, David Crisafulli’s Queensland Liberal National party has been a remarkable exception.
The Queensland premier inherited an unruly mob with a track record of election losses, riven by factional infighting and identity crises. Under his leadership, the party has been cohesive and united.
On Tuesday morning a crack appeared. And it’s a fissure in the LNP that, now opened, could have consequences beyond the state border.
The LNP’s member for Mackay, Nigel Dalton, crossed the floor on a procedural motion, which sought to end a gag on parliamentary debate about abortion.
Dalton told reporters afterwards it was “deeply personal” but seemed to have the phrase stuck on a loop, unable to explain it, or the consequences for the LNP’s internal politics.
The party’s handling of abortion explains much about Crisafulli’s triumph of pragmatism over purpose.
The LNP’s grassroots membership has an average age of 72. Most members – and many of the party’s state MPs – are in favour of repealing laws enabling access to termination of pregnancy. But that puts them at odds with their own political interests, and the state’s urban voters who have in the past been put off by the LNP’s Bible thumping hard right.
Having faced severe pressure on the issue during the state election, Crisafulli sought to block parliament from debating abortion during this term.
He appealed to his party’s culture warriors to pipe down, lest they put at risk a second term.
That is a position that – as One Nation rises in the polls across the country – simply cannot hold.
Queensland is a hotbed of fringe politics – the birthplace of One Nation, and many other parties that have found a comfortable battleground at the right fringe of the Liberal National party.
Historically, the LNP struggles whenever forced to fight on that second front. At the 1998 state election, One Nation won 11 seats and the conservatives – then a coalition of the Nationals and Liberals – were swept from power.
On abortion, anti-choice groups have been upping their pressure on LNP MPs in recent weeks, circulating contact details of MPs and rallying in front of parliament. Dalton won’t be the last to be pressed to vote with his conscience.
The national push for gun restrictions in the wake of the Bondi attack is another third-rail issue that puts the LNP between the sorts of city voters it needs to retain power, and folks in regional areas where One Nation might expect to poll strongly.
Its solution – called the “weakest in the nation” – might end up pleasing very few.
Before the state election, the LNP had promised to bring back optional preferential voting. That remains the party’s position but the plan remains vague, and internally some MPs have raised concerns it might assist One Nation in snagging regional seats.
In that context, it is unsurprising the LNP has returned, again, to the issue that got it elected – a crusade on youth crime – and is planning to legislate a third tranche of its “adult time” laws. But Crisafulli needs to be careful here, too.
The premier spent four years in opposition selling to the public the notion of a youth crime “crisis” – in spite of data showing that was not the case. He suckered Labor into a race to the right and won comfortably.
Labor’s response to pressure on youth crime was a promise to be “tough”. They got outflanked when the LNP promised to be even tougher. But what happens when One Nation promises to be tougher still, knowing it doesn’t have to worry about the sensitive stomachs of moderate city voters?
One look at Facebook’s unruly anti-crime groups, and it’s clear the new government has done little to quell discontent about crime in parts of regional Queensland where One Nation will poll well.
Dalton’s decision to cross the floor on abortion on Tuesday is a bigger deal than it might otherwise appear. Crisafulli must now choose whether to allow open dissent, or crack down.
Neither option bodes well for a party desperate to keep its ideological fault lines in check.
The LNP has managed to appear stable because of the way its MPs have put aside their differences and rallied around a common purpose – beating Labor.
Suddenly – particularly for regional MPs like Dalton in Mackay, which would be a key target for One Nation – beating Labor is now only half the battle.
Ben Smee is Guardian Australia’s Queensland state correspondent
