A personal view of Australian and International Politics
Contemporary politics,local and international current affairs, science, music and extracts from the Queensland Newspaper "THE WORKER" documenting the proud history of the Labour Movement.
MAHATMA GANDHI ~ Truth never damages a cause that is just.
“I would expect March 28 to be the biggest protest in American history,” said Ezra Levin, co-founder of Indivisible.
Saturday’s protest is the third No Kings; the last one in October drew 7 million people nationwide.
At
the “flagship” event in Minnesota’s Twin Cities, Minneapolis and St
Paul, organizers estimate around 200,000 people filled the streets
around the state capitol to commiserate, mourn and speak out against the
Trump administration.
The No Kings protest in St Paul, Minnesota, on Saturday. Photograph: Joe Scheller/AP
Bernie
Sanders, the independent Vermont senator, riled up the crowd with
remarks about the role of the ultra-rich in politics. Bruce Springsteen
sang his song about the death and destruction brought by ICE to the
state, Streets of Minneapolis, leading the crowd in chants of “Ice out
now!”
The state’s governor, Tim Walz,
introduced Springsteen, saying it was clear America needed “no damn
kings” but it needed the Boss. Walz commended the state’s people for
standing up for each other and for immigrants when Trump sent in
thousands of federal agents, who killed Minneapolis residents Renee Good
and Alex Pretti. Their names were featured heavily in No Kings protest
signs in the city. Jane Fonda even read a statement from Good’s wife,
Brenda.
Bruce Springsteen performs during the No Kings protest in St Paul on Saturday. Photograph: Tom Baker/AP
In
New York City, multiple No Kings contingents merged through Times
Square, as well as the outer boroughs. Minutes before the main march was
set to take off from Central Park, the state’s attorney general,
Letitia James; the city’s public advocate, Jumaane Williams; actor
Robert DeNiro; the Rev Al Sharpton; and Padma Lakshmi filed into the
front of the crowd holding hand-painted banners that read: “We protect
our democracy – people over billionaires – we protect our neighbors.”
Jumaane
Williams, New York City’s public advocate; Letitia James, the state’s
attorney general; actor Robert DeNiro; and the Rev Al Sharpton attend
the No Kings protest in New York City on Saturday. Photograph: Lex McMenamin/The Guardian
Families carried LGBTQ+ pride and Palestinian flags, while other marchers held pun-heavy signs and others handed out whistles.
Many signs and chants included anti-ICE, anti-Trump and pro-LGBTQ+
rights messaging. But perhaps the most consistent theme was anti-war.
“This war has to stop,” said MB, 55, a Queens resident who didn’t want
to use their full name for safety reasons. “American people do not want
what this administration is doing. We don’t want it. We need healthcare,
we need jobs. We need infrastructure.”
In
Washington DC, one protest group, made up of about a dozen Palestinian
mothers, stood at the steps of the Lincoln Memorial and waved a
10ft-tall Palestinian flag. “Most Americans don’t know that our tax
dollars are being used to subsidize violence,” Hazami Barmada, 42, said.
“This is happening while many Americans can’t afford housing, milk,
school or healthcare. Prices continue to go up as we are fighting
Israel’s wars.”
Hazami Barmada at the Lincoln Memorial on Saturday. Photograph: Fabiola Cineas/The Guardian
Other
protesters, led by local activist organizations including Free DC,
gathered at the Frederick Douglass Bridge in south-east Washington DC.
The crowd marched across the bridge to Fort McNair in Southwest DC,
where the White House senior adviser Stephen Miller resides.
In
downtown Chicago, protestors chanted “Trump must go now, fascists gotta
go now” and “Ice out” as they filed into Grant Park. Chicago’s mayor,
Brandon Johnson, addressed the crowd of thousands: “Look around, our
movement is bigger, our resolve is bigger.”
Other
speakers at Chicago’s rally discussed labor rights and keeping
immigrant and trans communities safe. “When we build a world that
protects trans people, we build a world that’s better for everyone,”
said Iggy Ladden, the founder of the Chicago Therapy Collective.
Demonstrators gather at a No Kings protest in Chicago on Saturday. Photograph: Amy Qin/The Guardian
More
than two-thirds of participants who have RSVP’d for No Kings events are
“outside of major urban centers”, including Republican-controlled areas
and bellwether counties, said Leah Greenberg, co-founder of Indivisible, at a press conference on Thursday.
On
Saturday, hundreds also showed up in deep-red cities such as Lebanon,
Pennsylvania; Midland, Texas; and Boise, Idaho, holding signs to protest
against Trump and the war in Iran. Crowds also protested around the
globe in Tokyo, Paris, Berlin, Rome and Sydney, Australia.
A multiplicity of stressors is drawing protesters across issues, organizers said, from ICE raids to votingrightsthreats. “Since the last No Kings, we’re seeing higher gas pricesandgroceries, all while there’s an illegal war in Iran,” said Sarah Parker, the executive director of Voices of Florida and a national coordinator for the 50501 movement. “The people of America are pissed.”
The No Kings march in Times Square on Saturday. Photograph: Chris Spadazzi
Counterprotesters also showed up at rallies, including in West Palm Beach, Florida, CNN reported.
About 50 pro-Trump demonstrators with megaphones and “Proud Boys” hats
argued with No Kings protesters, according to the outlet.
The
No Kings coalition has repeatedly emphasized the “nonviolent” nature of
the day of action. Parker noted ahead of the protests that leaders were
being trained in de-escalation. The No Kings website states that
participants are not allowed to bring any weapons, including legally
permitted ones. During the first No Kings Day in June, one Salt Lake
City protester was killed and another was injured by a local 50501 “peacekeeper” volunteer who saw the latter carrying a firearm, even though doing so is legal under Utah law.
The
White House and Republican leadership denounced Saturday’s No Kings day
events as “Trump Derangement Therapy Sessions”. In a statement, White
House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said the demonstrations were created
by “leftist funding networks” and that “only people who care about these
Trump Derangement Therapy Sessions are the reporters who are paid to
cover them.”
The Trump administration has targeted and federally prosecuted anti-ICE protesters – earlier this month, nine people were found guilty
of charges of “antifa” terrorism in a Texas trial over a Fourth of July
demonstration outside a detention facility. In January, Minneapolis
residents Good and Pretti were killed by federal immigration agents as they were documenting the agents’ activities.
During the press conference on Thursday, organizers
were asked about reports of ICE agents putting boots on the ground at
the protests – placing a higher level of risk for undocumented and other
marginalized protesters. (Last year, journalist Mario Guevara was detained and ultimately deported
after livestreaming the June No Kings protest.) Deirdre Schifeling,
American Civil Liberties Union’s chief political and advocacy officer,
advised that any threats of ICE presence were an intimidation tactic and
directed attenders to the “know your rights” materials on the ACLU’s site.
Organizers have repeatedly emphasized
that No Kings Day is only one aspect of broader efforts toward building
people power and fighting the Trump administration – and that that work
“doesn’t end after March 28”.
“Our third No
Kings Day of Action will happen on Saturday, and Trump will still be in
the White House,” said Greenberg. “That is why we see No Kings as not
only a powerful day of defiance but an organizing catalyst to support
local organizing everywhere.”
Wayne Coolwell was a "trailblazing" journalist and broadcaster who documented his time in the media with photography. (Supplied: State Library of Queensland)
In
black and white, etched in millions of tiny silver fragments, he sits
in front of a radio console with a massive smile on his face.
WARNING:
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander readers are warned that this
story includes names and images of Indigenous people who have died.
It's a film photograph of Mununjali and Wangerriburra man Wayne Coolwell, in his element, broadcasting on ABC Radio.
He
was a trailblazer in many ways, a broadcaster, sports commentator,
television host and, perhaps most importantly to the man himself,
photographer.
He died last year at the age of 68.
From Wayne Coolwell's photo collection. (Supplied: SLQ by Wayne Coolwell)
In
his journeys overseas and through the red Australian country, Coolwell
never put down his camera and never stopped taking photos.
His
snaps, captured on 35mm film and on exhibition at the State Library of
Queensland (SLQ) from Saturday, are a living record documenting First
Nations history in Australia.
Photographs
of towering Australian figures like Archie Roach, Ernie Dingo, and
Neville Bonner, and Indigenous communities around the world, show what
Mr Coolwell loved best was to tell stories about culture.
Husband and wife musical pair Ruby Hunter and Archie Roach, photographed by Wayne Coolwell. (ABC News/Wayne Coolwell)
First
Nations curator at SLQ Serene Fernando said the collection showed just
how impactful a tool Coolwell's camera was over the years.
"Wayne's whole visual journal … really does show that strong storytelling emphasis that still photography can have," she said.
"But
also his dedication to working with First Nations people, his own
people, and using that as a way of creating understanding, and
celebrating our excellence and identity in the community as well."
Collection curator Serene Fernando says Coolwell's collection captures the storytelling power of photography. (Supplied)
As he wrote in his 1993 book My Kind of People:
"I guess more that anything I am more aware of myself now, and how I feel about my country, and how I fit into its future.
"All of this has made me more contented and more comfortable with being an Aborigine."
Where it all began
In his oral history, recorded for SLQ in 2023, Coolwell explained where his love for photography came from.
He
said his mother stored a collection of National Geographic magazines on
a cupboard top shelf, and when he saw the photographs inside, he was
transformed.
"One day I just
got on this chair and just looked at all these National Geographic and
saw these magnificent colour photographs of Canada, South America,
Asia," he said.
Coolwell recorded his story in an oral history for the State Library in 2023. (ABC News)
"The photographs were brilliant. And I thought, that's a place I'd like to go one day. And that's a thing called photography.
"[I]
just always loved the still image, getting that moment in time, that
photograph of something or somebody in time, it just was magic."
He got a box brownie — a type of film camera made by Kodak in the early 20th century — and took his first photo in 1968.
Coolwell acquired a box brownie camera in the 1960s and took his first photos in 1968. (ABC News/Wayne Coolwell)
Coolwell was characteristically humble about his approach to photography.
"I
got some really good photographs. I got some bad photographs as well,
some ordinary photographs. That's life, isn't it?" he said in the oral
history.
'For everyone — both black and white'
Coolwell
attributed his drive to tell stories to experiencing things like Martin
Luther King Jr's 'I have a dream' speech, and the protest at the 1968
Olympic Games in Mexico.
The famous image of Tommie Smith and John Carlos beside Australian Peter Norman at the 1968 Mexico Olympics inspired Coolwell. (Getty: Bettmann)
"The
1960s I regard as the decade of a lifetime. There was so much happening
with so much around the world, it just affected me so much," he said.
He
worked for Queensland Newspapers during the 1970s, and took photos for
publications in Europe, before returning to Australia and applying for a
job with the ABC — and finding success.
It was here that he became the inaugural presenter of the ABC's Indigenous current affairs program Speaking Out on Radio National.
"It was a program run by First Nations people, but for everyone — both black and white," he said in the oral history.
He
moved between news and current affairs and sports broadcasting, heading
to Darwin in 1988 to set up the city's ABC Sports department.
"It
really did capture his pride in his own people that a lot of First
Nations people are seen as elite athletes," Ms Fernando said.
"And
I think Wayne really did sit at the forefront of emerging talent and
emerging excellence, and he really did craft his career around shining a
light on, and celebrating, Aboriginal excellence and identity in the
community."
'Can't ask for a more powerful decade' than the 90s
Much
of his most striking work was captured during the 1990s, which Coolwell
described by saying "you can't ask for a more powerful decade, really,
for Aboriginal people than the 90s".
"When
I look back on some of the interviews that we did, I just think 'so
many stories, so many brave people, incredible time for Australia.'"
1993
was an important year that saw Coolwell travel overseas and around the
country speaking to Indigenous people — and taking photos along the way.
Wayne Coolwell's photographs of figures like Ernie Dingo document indigenous Australian history. (ABC News/Wayne Coolwell)
He
released his book, My Kind of People, in the same year. It included
personal portraits of First Nations people who had made contributions to
Australian culture, and told their stories.
"They
were fascinating, you know. Some people didn't agree with the others …
but we're all connected to our spirituality and our culture and
heritage," Coolwell said.
"That's undeniable, but we're all different, which is good. You need that."
Coolwell said the experience of documenting history in still photography was "magic". (ABC News/Wayne Coolwell)
He left the ABC in 1999 after 15 years, saying he "just felt like I'd done everything".
"I couldn't have asked for anything more. Beautiful."
Tambo's return
The
photographs that best represent what the art form meant to Wayne
Coolwell are perhaps those of the return of Tambo's remains to Palm
Island in 1994.
"He was an
Aboriginal person that was stolen off Palm Island … and he was taken by
Barnum & Bailey Circus to America to perform as a freak," Coolwell
said.
Tambo never returned to
Australia in life, dying in 1884 of pneumonia. His remains were found
more than a century later in Cleveland, Ohio, and brought back to
Australia to be laid to rest.
From Wayne Coolwell's photo collection showing the return of Tambo's remains. (Supplied: SLQ by Wayne Coolwell)
"I'll
never forget that day sitting there and … when his body came in, this
huge black cloud came over the mountain. Just hovered over the mountain
for about five minutes," Coolwell said.
"It
just sat there for five minutes and just disappeared. And his remains
came on board and they just buried them, was just an amazing thing.
Great to see after such a long time."
Item
1 of 5 Demonstrators participate in a "No Kings" protest as part of
nationwide demonstrations against U.S. President Donald Trump's
administration policies, in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 28, 2026.
REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein
[1/5]Demonstrators
participate in a "No Kings" protest as part of nationwide
demonstrations against U.S. President Donald Trump's administration
policies, in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 28, 2026. REUTERS/Evelyn
Hockstein Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Summary
Over 3,200 events planned across all 50 states
Organizers expect more protests in smaller communities this time
Protests driven by backlash against Iran conflict, Trump policies
WASHINGTON,
March 28 (Reuters) - Demonstrators decrying U.S. President Donald
Trump's policies took to city streets across the country on Saturday in
the third edition of the "No Kings" rallies which organizers hope will
be the largest single-day protest in U.S. history.
More
than 3,200 events are planned in all 50 states and several cities
outside the U.S. The two previous No Kings events attracted millions of
participants.
The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.
Singers
Bruce Springsteen and Joan Baez will headline a rally at the state
capitol in Minnesota, where upward of 100,000 people are expected to
gather in an area that became a flashpoint
over Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration and the incursion of
federal immigration agents into Democratic-led urban centers.
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Other
large rallies are taking place in New York, Los Angeles and Washington,
but two-thirds of the events are happening outside major city centers,
a nearly 40% jump for smaller communities from the movement's first
mobilization last June, organizers said.
On
the National Mall in Washington, the crowd chanted pro-democracy
slogans and held anti-Trump signs. Outside one high-rise assisted-living
center in Chevy Chase, Maryland, a group of elderly people in
wheelchairs held signs encouraging passing cars to “Resist tyranny,”
“Honk if you want democracy” and “Dump Trump.”
In Austin, Texas, a brass band provided the soundtrack as protesters gathered outside City Hall before a march through downtown.
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Thousands
gathered in midtown Manhattan, where actor Robert De Niro, one of the
organizers, said that "there have been other presidents who have tested
the constitutional limits of their power, but none have been such an
existential threat to our freedoms and security.”
"The
defining story of this Saturday's mobilization is not just how many
people are protesting, but where they are protesting," said Leah
Greenberg, co-founder of Indivisible, the group that started the No
Kings movement last year and led planning of Saturday's events.
The rallies come as Trump's approval rating has fallen to 36%, its lowest point since his return to the White House, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
A
spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee
criticized Democratic politicians and candidates for supporting the
rallies.
“These
Hate America Rallies are where the far-left’s most violent, deranged
fantasies get a microphone and House Democrats get their marching
orders," spokesperson Mike Marinella said in a statement.
MARCHING AHEAD OF MIDTERMS
With
midterm elections later this year in the U.S., organizers say they have
seen a surge in the number of people organizing anti-Trump events and
registering to participate in deeply Republican states like Idaho,
Wyoming, Montana and Utah.
Competitive
suburban areas that have helped decide national elections are seeing
"huge" increases in interest, Greenberg said, citing as examples
Pennsylvania's Bucks and Delaware counties, East Cobb and Forsyth in
Georgia, and Scottsdale and Chandler in Arizona.
"Voters
who decide elections, the people who do the door-knocking and the voter
registration and all of the work of turning protests into power, they
are taking to the streets right now, and they are furious," she said.
In
northern Virginia just outside Washington, D.C., several hundred people
began gathering on Saturday close to Arlington National Cemetery before
a planned march across the Potomac River to the capital city’s
National Mall.
Some passing drivers honked their horns in support but others slowed down to berate the protesters.
"You're all idiots," one man shouted from his car.
John
Ale, 57, a retired air-conditioning and heating contractor, said he
drove 20 minutes from his home in Virginia to join the march.
"What's
happening in this country is unsustainable," he said. "The middle
class, the little people, can't afford to live anymore. And he (Trump)
is breaking the norms, the things that made us function as a country."
A CALL TO ACTION AGAINST IRAN WAR
The No Kings movement launched last year on Trump's birthday, June 14, drew an estimated 4 to 6 million people across roughly 2,100 sites nationwide. The second mobilization
in October involved an estimated 7 million participants in more than
2,700 cities, according to a crowd-sourcing analysis published by
prominent data journalist G. Elliott Morris.
That
October event was largely fueled by a backlash against a government
shutdown, an aggressive crackdown by federal immigration authorities,
and the deployment of National Guard troops to major cities.
Saturday's events come amid what organizers said was a call to action against the bombardment of Iran by the U.S. and Israel, a conflict that is now four weeks old.
Morgan
Taylor, 45, attended the Washington protest with her 12-year-old son,
and said she was enraged by Trump's military action in Iran, which she
called a "stupid war."
"Nobody's attacking us," Taylor said. "We don't need to be there."
Reporting
by Tim Reid and Deborah Gembara in Washington, Brad Brooks in Colorado,
Maria Tsvetkova in New York and Ryan Jones in Toronto; Editing by
Sergio Non and Alistair Bell
Iran has been controlling the passage of ships in and out of the Persian Gulf. (Supplied: Sentinel Hub)
Iran
is running one of the world's most critical shipping lanes as a "toll
booth" and has likely made hundreds of millions of dollars of extra
income from selling its own oil since the US and Israel waged war
against the regime.
Daily
traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is down about 95 per cent since February
28, according to maritime tracking agencies, as ships face attack or
the threat of attack around the Persian Gulf.
But Iran's friends, and its own tankers, have been allowed to pass as part of what has been described as Iran's "selective closure" of the elbow-shaped waterway. Other ships are taking the risk and running the gauntlet.
About
five to six large vessels — tankers, bulk carriers and container ships —
are moving daily through the narrow strait, ABC analysis of available
marine tracking data and satellite imagery shows.
"A
comment that's got some in the US government mad at me [is] that the
Iranians have control of the strait," said former merchant mariner and
marine historian Sal Mercogliano.
"They're running it like a toll booth."
On
March 15, the Pakistan-owned Karachi was the first non-sanctioned oil
tanker to make it through the Strait of Hormuz while broadcasting its
tracking location.
The vessel's
tracking data shows it crossing close to the Iranian coast, rather than
taking the more commonly-used shipping lane that flows mostly through
Omani waters.
Analysts
told the ABC this was a clear sign Iran had established a new shipping
corridor, so vessels could be tracked completely inside Iranian waters.
"They're
coordinating with the Iranians for passage out, but to verify, they're
going up there … they're passing by, and they're getting positively
identified," Dr Mercogliano said.
"About a dozen of them now have done that."
As
it asserts its control over the body of water, Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is also imposing a de facto 'toll
booth' regime, according to maritime data company Lloyd's List, which reported at least two ships so far have paid for passage.
Iran
is working on a new law to formalise the process, with the plan
expected to be finalised next week, according to Iranian state media.
"Iran
charges $2 million from each ship as a transit fee," senior Iranian
parliamentary official Alaeddin Boroujerdi told state media.
"In other words, after 47 years, there is a new, de facto sovereign regime in the Strait of Hormuz."
As
global economic and supply pressures continue to grow from Iran's
effective blockade, its regime has continued to profit by selling its
oil.
Satellite imagery from March 17 shows one oil tanker and two supertankers at Kharg Island, Iran's largest oil export hub. (Supplied: Sentinel Hub)
Iran's
crude oil exports have been relatively unimpeded by the war, with the
nation moving an estimated 1.6 million barrels a day on average from
March 1 to March 23, according to maritime intelligence company
TankerTrackers.
The spike in
oil prices since the start of the war, along with the United States'
decision to lift its sanctions on Iranian oil to help boost global
supply, has also increased the flow of money into the Iranian regime's
coffers.
It's a different story for nations that rely on oil and gas imports inside the Persian Gulf.
Governments
worldwide are deploying measures to combat shortages and high energy
prices, while some nations most impacted by the strait closure are
engaging in diplomatic efforts directly with Iran.
But
even countries with working relationships with the regime are not
guaranteed safe passage through the critical shipping lane.
The ships making it across the Strait of Hormuz
Before
the war started on February 28, about 138 vessels passed through the
strait each day, carrying one fifth of the global oil and gas supply,
according to the Joint Maritime Information Centre.
But
data analysed by the ABC shows only about 150 ships have transited the
Strait of Hormuz between March 1 and March 26, including about 46 oil
tankers, compared to the pre-war average of about 50 a day.
More
than one-fifth of the ships making the crossing are owned by Iran,
although the data offers an incomplete picture as many Iranian vessels
are sailing without broadcasting their locations.
Many
of the other ships that have passed in recent weeks are owned by
companies in Greece, China, India, the United Arab Emirates and the
Marshall Islands.
Some were allowed through, while others took their chances through the strait.
Greece
owns the second highest-number of ships crossing the body of water,
which industry sources said was a result of the approach of some Greek
ship owners.
Dr Mercogliano
said the halting of traffic through the strait has driven up the cost of
shipping to the benefit of some companies.
"When
you have a charter that's paying 10 times the normal value, you're
going to pay your crew a little bit extra money, and you're going to run
the strait — and that's exactly what they did," he said.
Other
ships that have transited the strait through Iran's coastal waters in
recent days include several China and India-owned oil and gas tankers
broadcasting "CHINA OWNER" and "INDIA SHIP&IND CREW".
The ABC revealed earlier this week the first ship bound for Australia,
which escaped the Persian Gulf after the war started, was a
Japanese-owned bulk carrier that transited the strait while broadcasting
"CHINA OWNER" from its transponder.
Diplomacy behind the scenes
Several
governments are in direct talks with Tehran about securing safe passage
for their ships, including China and India, according to Lloyd's List.
"I
assume the way you do it is by agreeing to an identification signal, by
re-flagging tankers or … by having agreed protocols for identifying a
particular shipment as belonging to or heading to a particular country,"
said Sir John Jenkins, a retired senior British diplomat and Middle
East expert.
Large parts of Asia rely on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In
India, for example, more than 40 per cent of its crude oil imports come
from the Middle East. The strait also carries about half of the
country's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and most of its liquefied
petroleum gas (LPG) shipments.
India's Pine Gas LPG Carrier crossed the Strait of Hormuz and was expected to reach port this week. (Supplied: Government of India)
Given
the nation's reliance on the gulf, Indian ministers have indicated a
preference towards negotiating with Tehran to get vessels through the
critical shipping lane.
"Certainly,
from India's perspective, it is better that we reason and we coordinate
and we get a solution, than we don't," Indian Foreign Minister
Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told the Financial Times.
Indian
Navy warships in the Gulf of Oman have been escorting some vessels,
which have been allowed to leave the Persian Gulf via Iran's shores,
including two LPG tankers on March 23.
Comparing
their paths with that of an India-owned oil tanker from two weeks ago
indicates a potential change in arrangement between India and Iran.
Mr Jaishankar had indicated there was no "blanket arrangement" in place for Indian-flagged ships.
China
is similarly impacted by the closure of the strait, with estimates it
buys around 90 per cent of the oil that Iran exports to the global
market.
Sir John compared the
situation to when the Houthis, a militant group, caused significant
traffic disruptions in the Red Sea in late 2023.
After weeks of disruptions, Beijing reportedly intervened by putting pressure on Iran to rein them in.
In
the Strait of Hormuz, Sir John said it was in Tehran's interest to let
oil to China through, given Beijing was a powerful ally.
"The
Chinese would have good access to central authorities, not just the
political authorities in Tehran, but also the IRGC, which is [overseeing
the strait]," he said.
The
strength of those connections could go some way to explaining why some
Chinese vessels have made it through the strait in recent weeks.
But diplomacy only gets countries so far.
Communicating with the Iranian regime
Japan,
which is dependent on the Middle East for more than 90 per cent of its
oil, holds friendly relations with Iran and has tried to leverage those
ties to help open the strait.
Iranian
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who has held multiple calls with
Japan's foreign minister, was previously based in Tokyo as an
ambassador.
Cargo ships have been queuing up either side of the Strait of Hormuz. (Reuters)
"Iran
is, of course, ready to support the passing of Japan-related vessels
through the Strait of Hormuz," Mr Araghchi told Japanese news agency
Kyodo News.
Not long after
those comments were made, two Japanese-owned vessels that had been sold
and scrapped for parts long before the war started — so-called zombie
ships — were tracked sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Maritime
trade analysts at Lloyd's List reported the real owner and cargo of the
two vessels were being concealed by using the unique identification
codes of dead vessels.
Only
a few real Japan-owned ships have made the crossing since the war
began, with an estimated 45 Japanese vessels still stuck in the Persian
Gulf.
When asked about Mr
Araghchi's comments, Japan's Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said the
country was not considering unilateral negotiations with Iran for
passage of its vessels.
"From
Japan's perspective, since there are so many vessels involved, we
believe it is extremely important to create a situation where all of
them can pass through," Toshimitsu Motegi told local station Fuji
Television.
Japanese diplomat Koichi Nakagawa was more sceptical about the Iranian foreign minister's recent comments.
"This
is I think a kind of diplomatic trick from Tehran," he said, noting the
comments were made through the media, not diplomatic channels.
"This is maybe to divide the channels between the US and Japan."
Other
countries might be in an even more precarious position when it comes to
negotiating with Tehran on a path out for their ships.
"Everybody will have channels into some elements in Iran," Sr John said.
But, he noted "central command and control is a problem" and it seemed unclear who was acting on behalf of the Iranian regime.
"If
you agree with somebody in Tehran, does that guarantee that some
Revolutionary Guard unit down on the coast is going to, a) know about
that, b) care about it, and c) do anything about it?" Sr John said.
"Or are they just going to fire randomly at anything that tries to transit the straits?
"There's a whole bunch of stuff going on at the moment in the strait, which makes the picture extremely confusing."
He
explained that the IRGC delegate operational tactical decisions down to
a very local level, and that doctrine has been in place for at least 25
to 30 years.
"So the issue of
how you make sure [some ships are allowed through] … given the degrading
of central command and control in Iran, I mean, is an interesting
issue," he said.
"I don't know
how much redundancy the IRGC built into their communication systems to
allow them to communicate in different ways when necessary with very
local command units."
In mid-March, France and Italy also opened talks with Iran,
seeking to negotiate a deal to guarantee safe passage for their ships
through the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reported, citing
people briefed on the efforts.
According
to the available marine tracking data analysed by the ABC, one
Italian-owned oil tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz on March 1, and
no French-owned ships have made the crossing.
"I've seen some suggestions that some European countries have been trying to [negotiate with Tehran]," Sir John said.
"That
sounds a bit bizarre to me, I mean, given that the European countries
are in NATO and, most of them are, even if not directly involved, are
associated with the American effort."
France
has since said its military chief has held talks with around 35
countries, including Italy, on a proposal to re-open the strait after
the war ends.
The negotiations to end the war
Pakistan, a middle power with significant military capabilities, has positioned itself as both a messenger and host in mediations between Iran and the United States.
"They've
got a real interest in ending this … given the economic fragility of
Pakistan, which is massive. [The war is a] massive domestic security
problem for them," Sir John said.
"They're
very exposed because I think virtually all their energy comes out of
the gulf ... but if nothing's coming through, Pakistan has enough
economic problems of its own already without this being added."
Pakistan
has working relationships with both Iran and the United States, and has
previously offered to mediate between the two sides.
Iranian
officials publicly insist no official negotiations with Washington are
taking place, despite multiple US outlets reporting that they have
quietly indicated openness to talks, and Mr Trump's claims that Iran is
"desperate" to make a ceasefire deal.
Even as it plays mediator, Pakistan is still significantly impacted by the blockade in the strait.
One of its oil tankers made headlines for crossing the critical shipping lane this month, but other vessels remain trapped.
And
another container ship that was headed to Pakistan, Selen, was forced
to turn around by the IRGC "due to failure to comply with legal
protocols and lack of permission to pass through," Iranian naval officer
Alireza Tangsiri wrote on X.
"The passage of any vessel through this waterway requires full coordination with Iran's maritime sovereignty," he added.
Mr
Nakagawa, who worked in the Japanese foreign office for more than 25
years with experience in the Middle East and Washington, said
relationships with Iran and the United States were "very sensitive for
diplomats and very difficult to manage".
He
recalled that during Mr Trump's first presidency, then Japanese prime
minister Shinzo Abe acted as an intermediary between Iran and the United
States, delivering a message between the leaders of the two nations.
But the two countries were not at open war with each other, as they are now.
"Iran
has always been a sort of a lonely state … the regime is happy not to
be aligned with others or not to have those sort of relationships. So it
is a bit of a problem. Who do you get to talk to them?" Sir John said.
This
time around, Egypt and Türkiye, as well as Pakistan, are playing the
role of interlocutor, passing messages and probing for an off-ramp.
It's
just not clear yet what an end to the conflict would look like and if
Mr Trump and the leadership in Iran would ever agree on a deal.
*The term "ships" in this article refers to tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships.
