A personal view of Australian and International Politics
Contemporary politics,local and international current affairs, science, music and extracts from the Queensland Newspaper "THE WORKER" documenting the proud history of the Labour Movement.
MAHATMA GANDHI ~ Truth never damages a cause that is just.
On April 17, engineers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in
Southern California sent commands to shut down an instrument aboard
Voyager 1 called the Low-energy Charged Particles experiment, or LECP.
The nuclear-powered spacecraft is running low on power, and turning off
the LECP is considered the best way to keep humanity’s first
interstellar explorer going.
Mission
engineers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California
turned off the Low-energy Charged Particles experiment aboard Voyager 1
on April 17, 2026.
NASA/JPL-Caltech
The LECP has been operating almost without interruption since Voyager 1
launched in 1977 — almost 49 years. It measures low-energy charged
particles, including ions, electrons, and cosmic rays originating from
our solar system and galaxy. The instrument has provided critical data
about the structure of the interstellar medium, detecting pressure
fronts and regions of varying particle density in the space beyond our
heliosphere. The twin Voyagers are the only spacecraft that are far
enough from Earth to provide this information.
Like Voyager 2, Voyager 1 relies on a radioisotope thermoelectric generator,
a device that converts heat from decaying plutonium into electricity.
Both probes lose about 4 watts of power each year. After almost a
half-century in space, power margins have grown razor thin, requiring
the team to conserve energy by shutting off heaters and instruments
while making sure the spacecraft don’t get so cold that their fuel lines
freeze.
During a routine, planned roll maneuver on Feb. 27, Voyager 1’s power
levels fell unexpectedly. Mission engineers knew any additional drop in
power could trigger the spacecraft’s undervoltage fault protection
system, which would shut down components on its own to safeguard the
probe, requiring recovery by the flight team — a lengthy process that
carries its own risks.
The Voyager team needed to act first.
“While shutting down a science instrument is not anybody’s
preference, it is the best option available,” said Kareem Badaruddin,
Voyager mission manager at JPL. “Voyager 1 still has two remaining
operating science instruments — one that listens to plasma waves and one
that measures magnetic fields. They are still working great, sending
back data from a region of space no other human-made craft has ever
explored. The team remains focused on keeping both Voyagers going for as
long as possible.”
Far-out plan
The choice of which instrument to turn off next wasn’t made in the
heat of the moment. Years ago, the Voyager science and engineering teams
sat down together and agreed on the order in which they would shut off
parts of the spacecraft while ensuring the mission can continue to
conduct its unique science. Of the 10 identical sets of instruments that
each spacecraft carries, seven
have been shut off so far. For Voyager 1, the LECP was next on that
list. The team shut off the LECP on Voyager 2 in March 2025.
Because Voyager 1 is more than 15 billion miles (25 billion
kilometers) from Earth, the sequence of commands to shut down the
instrument will take 23 or so hours to reach the spacecraft, and the
shutdown process itself will take about three hours and 15 minutes to
complete. One part of the LECP — a small motor that spins the sensor in a
circle to scan in all directions — will remain on. It uses little power
(0.5 watts), and keeping it running gives the team the best chance of
being able to turn the instrument back on someday if they find extra
power.
What comes next
Engineers are confident that shutting down the LECP will give Voyager
1 about a year of breathing room. They are using the time to finalize a
more ambitious energy-saving fix for both Voyagers they call “the Big
Bang,” which is designed to further extend Voyager operations. The idea
is to swap out a group of powered devices all at once — hence the
nickname — turning some things off and replacing them with lower-power
alternatives to keep the spacecraft warm enough to continue gathering
science data.
The team will implement the Big Bang on Voyager 2 first, which has a
little more power to spare and is closer to Earth, making it the safer
test subject. Tests are planned for May and June 2026. If they go well,
the team will attempt the same fix on Voyager 1 no sooner than July. If
it works, there is even a chance that Voyager 1’s LECP could be switched
back on.
Half of France is placed under a red alert advisory as temperatures across the country soar. (Reuters: Sarah Meyssonnier)
In short:
Multiple countries across Europe are issuing warnings as a fresh heatwave bakes the continent.
There have been reports of drownings in France, Germany and Italy as residents flock to waterways to cool off.
Scientists say human-induced climate change is making heatwaves more extreme and more common.
Half
of France is set to be placed on "red alert" for Monday as temperatures
climb beyond 40 degrees Celsius across mainland Europe.
France
has already put emergency services and military forces on bushfire
alert, restricted public alcohol consumption and cancelled some outdoor
sports events over the weekend to cope with the major heatwave unfurling
across the continent.
Temperatures
in parts of the country topped 40C on Sunday, with predictions the
mercury will go even higher on Monday, in another European heatwave that
scientists say are becoming more extreme because of human-induced
climate change.
The Eiffel
Tower and other Paris venues set up misting stations to cool crowds,
among a raft of measures announced by national and local authorities to
minimise risks. Tourists in Rome sought relief in fountains.
Some
French trains were cancelled, and the national rail authority
dispatched thousands of extra staff to deal with potential problems as
the heat threatened rails and electrical cables.
France is stepping up monitoring of its nuclear power plants amid the sweltering conditions. (Reuters: Stephanie Lecocq)
Authorities
are notably worried about people living in the baking streets, and
elderly people in nursing homes or isolated in their homes.
About 15,000 older people died in France in a 2003 heatwave that became a national reckoning.
The
government announced reinforced wildfire readiness and ordered
tightened surveillance of water supplies to France's many nuclear
reactors, and directed 845 schools to close on Monday.
Paris swelters through red-alert heatwave
Extreme heat increasingly common
More
than 200,000 people across Europe died from heat-related causes over
the past four years, and most of the fatalities were preventable, the
World Health Organization's Europe office said this month.
More above-average temperatures are expected this summer, which can cause heat exhaustion and life-threatening heat stroke.
Human-caused
climate change is tied to increasing extreme weather events and UN
climate agency projections say the next five years should shatter more
heat records.
A rapid study
found that human-caused climate change was responsible for killing about
1,500 people in an unusually early European heatwave last month.
In
this latest European hot spell, French media reported that four
children drowned on Saturday as citizens flocked to beaches, pools and
other waterways to keep cool.
Spain, Italy, Germany and UK brace for heat
Spain
kicked off the summer with large parts of the country on alert due to
temperatures expected to hover around 40C (104F) — even in the interior
of Basque Country, a northern region that typically experiences cooler
temperatures.
Authorities have
suspended outdoor sports and cultural activities in the region. The
heatwave is expected to scorch Spain at least through Wednesday.
In
Italy, authorities expanded heat warnings — referred to locally as "red
flags" — to eight cities on Sunday in northern and central parts of the
country.
The UK's meteorological agency is issuing heatwave warnings for parts of the country. (AP: Kin Cheung)
Temperatures there are mostly in the upper-30s. Thunderstorms also threatened several regions.
In Germany, temperatures are soaring into the mid-30s.
A
23-year-old man drowned on Saturday in a lake near Rheinstetten in the
south-western region of Baden-Württemberg, the German news agency dpa
reported.
Three other people are missing after swimming in the Rhine River, which has strong currents, a police spokeswoman told dpa.
The
UK's weather office issued an "extreme heat" warning for much of
southern England and parts of Wales on Monday and Tuesday, saying
temperatures could exceed 35C.
The current record for a June day is 35.6C, reached in 1976.
Al
Jazeera cameraman Ahmed Wishah died two months after his brother
Mohammed, also a correspondent for the network, was himself killed in
Gaza. (Supplied: Al Jazeera)
In short:
An
Al Jazeera cameraman has been killed in an Israeli strike in Gaza, two
months after his brother and colleague was also killed.
The
Qatar-based news network condemned the "deliberate killing", while an
Israeli military spokesman claimed Wishah was a Hamas terrorist.
Gaza health officials said Israeli strikes on Saturday, local time, killed at least 11people, including two children.
Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes have killed at least 11people,
including two children and an Al Jazeera cameraman, in the latest
violence to rock the Palestinian territory despite a ceasefire.
The
Qatar-based news network said its cameraman Ahmed Wishah was killed on
Saturday, local time, in an "Israeli bombardment" that targeted a house
in the Bureij camp in the central Gaza Strip.
Al
Jazeera condemned what it called a "deliberate killing" and said it
comes only two months after Wishah's brother Mohammed Wishah, also a
correspondent for the news network, was killed by Israeli forces.
"Ahmed is the 12th Al Jazeera martyr in Gaza since October 2023," it said in a statement.
Ahmed Wishah's brother Mohammed Wishah, who also worked for Al Jazeera, was killed by Israeli shelling in April. (Supplied: Al Jazeera)
"The
Network denounces the continuation of these crimes committed by the
Israeli occupation forces against its correspondents and staff in Gaza,
and renews its call on the international community and legal
institutions to take urgent, practical measures to hold the Israeli
officials involved in these appalling crimes accountable, and to adopt
deterrent mechanisms to end the targeting of journalists."
An Israeli military spokesman confirmed to AFP it "carried out a strike on Ahmed Wishah", who he called "a Hamas terrorist".
The
spokesman did not immediately provide evidence to support the
military's claim about Wishah, but said "there will be a statement
issued with further details".
At
the time of Mohammed Wishah's death, media rights group Reporters
Without Borders said Israeli forces had killed more than 220
journalists, at least 70 of whom were killed in the context of their
professional duties.
The Israeli army has repeatedly said it never deliberately targets journalists.
But
since October 2023, it has claimed to have killed a number of people
who it says were Palestinian militant "terrorists" working under the
guise of being media professionals.
Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 11
Israel's strikes on Saturday killed at least 11 people, Gaza health officials said, including four members of the same family.
An
overnight air strike on an apartment building in the Sabra
neighbourhood of Gaza City killed four members of the Al-Safadi family,
including the husband, wife and their two daughters, according to the
civil defence agency, a rescue service that operates under Hamas
authority.
It said the strike also injured 12 others.
Gaza
City's Al-Shifa hospital confirmed receiving the bodies of four members
of the Safadi family, including four-year-old Zina and 14-year-old
Lana.
Mourners carry the bodies of two Palestinian girls in an Israeli air strike that damaged their home. (AP: Abdel Kareem Hana)
"Around
2 o'clock, my cousins were asleep when a missile struck them. They have
no connection to Hamas, nor are they involved in anything. They're just
innocent children," said Nael al-Safadi, a relative.
AFP
footage from the scene showed an exterior wall of the apartment blown
off, exposing rubble, clothes, mattresses and other household belongings
strewn across the shattered interior.
"By
God, I still feel as though I'm in a dream -- I never expected this to
happen to us," Mohammad al-Safadi, who survived the strike, told AFP.
"I'm
a civilian. I swear to God I've never carried a weapon or fired one.
What do you want from me? Go after whoever you're after, what's my fault
in this?"
Al-Shifa
hospital, meanwhile, said it had received one body following a separate
Israeli drone strike near an intersection in the north of Gaza City.
Later
on Saturday, six more people were killed in separate Israeli attacks,
including three when an Israeli aircraft targeted a house in the Bureij
refugee camp, the civil defence agency reported.
It said the three killed included Al Jazeera cameraman Ahmed Wishah.
At
least 1,012 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the ceasefire
took effect on October 10 last year, according to the territory's health
ministry, which operates under Hamas authority and whose figures are
considered reliable by the United Nations.
The Israeli army has reported five deaths in its ranks during the same period.
Restrictions
imposed on media outlets and limited access in Gaza prevent news
organisations, including the ABC, from independently verifying tolls or
freely covering the violence there.
The thievery of these little creatures is endlessly amusing to me, but there have been, I’m told, a few rounds of inconvenience.
The
thing is, I’m fortunate to live in that lush green valley, but my
neighbours are inveterate kleptomaniacs. A guest who was visiting for
the Cygnet folk festival this summer had left some laundry out on my
landlady’s deck to dry in the sun, and as my landlady turned the corner,
she saw the pair of knickers disappearing slowly between the wooden
deck slats. She dived to rescue the knickers; the thief scuttled away
beneath the deck. I learned early on that leaving shoes out at night was
to kiss your shoes goodbye.
(And in the day, the landlady’s dog will steal your shoes, so they aren’t safe day or night.)
The thing is, I adore
my neighbours. Tassie devils have a penchant for non-compliance and
their preferred method of communication is bloodcurdling screams. Now
that I’m in my 40s, I can relate.
Sarcophilus harrisii,
or “Harris’s flesh-lover”, are the world’s largest carnivorous
marsupial, and they bear zero resemblance to Taz, the spinning tornado
of a cartoon I grew up watching.
As a person
who was born in North America, my nearest mental image is “small bear”,
in the way the body moves – somewhat lumbering and by all appearances
not very flexible. A pit bull may be more accurate to imagine the size
and strength of these little creatures, but their jaw strength, as I
learned recently at the Tasmanian Devil Unzoo, is that of four
pit bulls. And they lumber, or bound, because their heads are so heavy
that their hind legs have evolved to be short: they are top-heavy, and
would simply fall on their faces if the hind end didn’t compensate.
It
was moderately hopeful to learn that, though the populations of devils
have been decimated by facial tumour disease, there are protected
populations on both the Tasman Peninsula and Maria Island: each of these
populations, while small, are free of the disease, and there is thought
to be enough genetic variation to keep these populations healthy.
However, despite conservation gains, they are still classified as
endangered.
Last year, it was a delight to peek out from my tiny house
window and see a young devil right in the driveway. It was dusk, and
the little creature was young and fearless enough to pause before it
dived beneath the deck. It was cute as a puppy, but I wouldn’t try to
get closer than that, because I value my hands, and their bite force can
amputate bone.
Upon first landing in
Tasmania, I remember reading an oldish novel where the terrifying
monster in the basement was a Tasmanian devil, and now that I’ve seen
them, I think the author had probably never been to this island, because
the creature in the darkness was far larger and more terrifying than
these little imps. Imp is actually the name for a young devil. Accurate.
The
thievery of these little creatures is endlessly amusing to me, but
there have been, I’m told, a few rounds of inconvenience. Expensive
hiking boots have had to be hauled out from beneath the house with a
boat hook: with them came cushions from deck chairs that had come from
neighbours down the road, and linens that could have made up a picnic.
I
once read that devils had stolen something like 40 polar fleeces on
Maria Island and stashed them in a great nest beneath the old
Penitentiary buildings, but now I can’t find that story and wonder if
I’ve made it up – or perhaps someone else did. Headlines say “stealing
chocolate”, “stealing dog toys” and “stealing hiking boots”.
Only
a few weeks ago, as I was heading into my house after dark, a rumble
came from the hedge, about a metre away. If you’ve ever had the
frustrated joy of starting up a small lawn mower, the kind where you
have to yank a handle on a string, where it goes ruMMM-Rumm,
before it actually catches and starts up: that was the song of the
critter in the hedge. One of the Unzoo keepers suggested it may have
been a quoll rather than a devil. It is a busy hedge, and as my landlady
graciously says of this hill: “We are but the latest inhabitants.”
The refinery, located just 16 kilometres from the Kremlin, was hit in one of Ukraine's largest attacks on Moscow to date.
Thick plumes of smoke with flames rise from an oil refinery following a Ukrainian drone attack. (Reuters: Social media)
At the start of the war, Ukraine did not have weapons capable of reaching the Russian capital.
But
after continuously developing and evolving mostly locally made
long-range drones, it is now reaching deeper into Russian territory.
The
recent attack reportedly involved a mix of propeller-driven drones and
jet-powered "missile" drones, which are more powerful and can travel at
faster speeds.
Kyiv claims its increasing ability to strike targets across Moscow is evidence it is turning the tide of the war.
Boost in long-range capabilities
At the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine struggled to convince the United States and European allies to provide it with long-range weapons.
Many countries were hesitant, wanting to avoid escalating the conflict into a direct confrontation with Russia.
So Ukraine began boosting the development and production of its own long-range drones and missiles.
An FP-1 long-range Ukrainian drone at a production facility. (Reuters: Valentyn Ogirenko)
Ukraine's Ministry of Defence said in 2022 it had the ability to strike at a range of about 630km.
In
April, it said its long-range weapons were now "successfully
destroying" Russia's military equipment "at a distance of about
1,750km".
Matthew Sussex,
associate professor in strategic studies at Deakin University's Centre
for Future Defence and National Security, said Ukraine's long-range
strike capabilities were constantly evolving.
"They've got this multitude of drones that they use," Dr Sussex told the ABC.
"It's estimated that the ones they're using against Moscow have about 30 kilos worth of explosives, which is very decent.
"Now there are some more modern types that are jet-propelled that can carry bigger payloads."
A long-range Ukrainian Peklo missile drone on display in 2024. (Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
'Missile drone' makes appearance
In
addition to the conventional drones typically used in long-range
strikes against Russian targets, local Ukrainian media reported Kyiv had
used its jet-powered missile drones during the June 18 attack.
Some defence analysts said videos circulating online also appeared to show jet-propelled, one-way attack drones were used.
Jet-propelled drones typically use compact turbojet engines and can be launched from ground-based platforms and aircraft.
Fire and smoke rise from a building following a Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow. (Reuters: Social media)
Ukraine's Bar drone, a so-called "drone-missile", had been cited in reports.
Dr Sussex said Ukraine unveiled the Bar in April 2025.
"It's
being referred to as a missile drone, but frankly, every missile is a
drone effectively and every drone is a missile," he said.
"It's effectively a medium-range missile that's fairly manoeuvrable because it's got a turbo-jet engine."
The Bar flies at about 800km/h and can carry an estimated payload of between 50kg to 100kg, he added.
Ukrainian drones evaded air defences and hit an oil refinery in Moscow. (Reuters: social media)
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, its air defences downed 555 drones across the country overnight.
At least 194 drones were intercepted on approach to Moscow.
Dr Sussex said the volume of drones launched and the mix of different types would have helped scramble Russia's air defences.
In
addition to striking one of Russia's largest refineries, which produces
more than a third of the Moscow region's fuel, Ukrainian drones hit a
residential building in the town of Zhukovsky.
The attack also temporarily halted flights from four Moscow airports, leaving more than 500 flights delayed or cancelled.
Ukraine sends message to civilians
Moscow has been periodically hit by drones since May 2023, when two of them reached the Kremlin itself, without causing damage.
Kyiv's attacks across Russian territory were largely aimed at crippling the oil industry that helps finance Russia's war effort.
But Ukraine has also signalled its intention to send a message to ordinary Russians.
"One
of the most popular questions asked by Muscovites this morning is 'What
is going on?' I can answer," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha
posted on X.
"Your country started a war of aggression against ours. For years, it has been killing our people.
"Now that you know what's going on, ask Putin when he is planning to end it."
Konstantin,
a local walking near the oil refinery in Moscow's south-eastern
Kapotnya district after it was struck, told AFP he had "never seen
anything like it".
Valentina, a 29-year-old manager, said she was woken up by the noise.
"It's really scary," she told the news agency.
People stand in front of an apartment building damaged during a Ukrainian drone attack in the Moscow region. (Reuters: Stringer)
John
Lough, associate fellow of the Chatham House Russia and Eurasia
Programme, said the war was starting to hit home for Russian civilians.
"The population is clearly becoming concerned and frustrated by this," he told ABC Radio National's AM.
"In
some places in the country where they've had repeated drone attacks,
people are feeling that they really don't have adequate defences.
"Since
this war was supposed to improve Russia's security, I think many people
could see there is a big gap between what Putin is saying and what's
actually happening."
He said he wanted Russians to put pressure on Mr Putin for the consequences of Europe's worst conflict since World War II.
Vyacheslav
Volodin, speaker of the lower house of Russia's parliament, warned that
Moscow would respond by ramping up its strikes.
"Their
action will lead to our counteraction and launching harsher blows, with
more powerful weapons," Mr Volodin said in televised remarks.
Jim
Townsend, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American
Security, said the war had been shifting in Ukraine's favour and it
would likely be weighing on the Russian president.
"They
[Ukraine] have developed the drone warfare to not only help them on the
battlefield against the Russians, but have the long-range strike
capability to bring the war to Russia," he told ABC News Channel.
"So
as more and more Russians see these dark clouds over their cities from
burning oil refineries, Putin might be looking for a way out."
What
has been revealed is the glaring gap between reality and the deluded
mindset in the Trump administration that believes it is not only in
control of Israel, but the wider world. (Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein)
As
more detail has emerged about the "understanding" signed by Iran and
the United States this week, the more analysts have been shocked by just
how high a strategic and financial price Donald Trump was prepared to
pay to get the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
That is, just how diabolically bad a "deal" this really is.
But
what has also been revealed has been the glaring gap between reality
and the deluded mindset in the Trump administration that believes it is
not only in control of Israel, but the wider world.
A naive, foolish and reckless act
"The
United States of America", point seven of the US-Iran agreement says,
"undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic
Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council
resolutions, i.e. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of
Governors resolutions and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and
secondary, in an agreed upon schedule".
Er, pardon? The US is committing the United Nations to drop its sanctions against Iran?
The
US didn't run the UN, even in the days when it believed in it. And
needless to say there is no suggestion that anyone actually ran this
idea past members of the UN.
Those
UN sanctions commit all member countries to comply with them. The EU
confirmed this week that it would not be "automatically" dropping its
sanctions.
And neither, apparently, will Australia.
But
the US committing the UN to blindly follow its actions seems a much
less naive, foolish and reckless act than committing Israel to do so.
Vice-President JD Vance has slammed critics of the Iran deal in Israel, saying "Trump is your only ally". (REUTERS : Nathan Howard)
Point
one of the agreement says: "The United States of America and the
Islamic Republic of Iran, and their allies in the current war, by
signing this MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of
military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake
from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against
each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each
other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of
Lebanon.
"The final deal will
confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in
Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph."
By
Friday, Israel's actions in Lebanon — notably an escalated attack on
Thursday night (Australian time) which led to a fierce battle with
Hezbollah in which many IDF troops were reportedly killed or injured —
caused Pakistani-moderated talks in Switzerland between Iran and a US
delegation led by Vice-President JD Vance to be suspended.
That provokes all new questions about the rest of the deal.
But
perhaps more importantly it reflects the reality that no amount of
yelling or insults by Trump or Vance is likely to change Israel's
actions any time soon.
There
was considerable shock this week about some of the things the president
and vice-president were saying about Israel, its prime minister,
Benjamin Netanyahu, and his cabinet ministers, let alone about Iran.
"You don't have to knock down a building every time somebody walks into it that's from Hezbollah," Trump said this week.
Vance told the New York Times that Israel is "a country of nine million people".
"You can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have."
Trump
also ventured a new view of the equity of war, saying that "it's a
little bit unfair" for Iran not to have ballistic missiles if other
countries have them.
These comments reflect just how many shifts in the tectonic plates are going on right now.
Displaced people return to their home in Bir Al-Salasil, Tyre district in southern Lebanon. (Reuters: Aziz Taher)
Israel fights on
On
the US side, it has suddenly got a big interest in stopping Israel's
incursions into Lebanon, a position Iran clearly understands and will
exploit to get the US to maximise pressure on Israel, just as
aggressively as it is doing with its direct control over the Strait of
Hormuz.
Unfortunately for the
US, the world, and the poor Lebanese people being killed and displaced,
Israel now has perhaps an even bigger interest in not stopping.
The
state of play caused by the joint US and Israeli war on Iran has
confirmed that the US doesn't want to get involved in a direct war with
Iran again. It just wants it to stop — at least enough to get the Strait
of Hormuz opened.
The highest
possible incentive — political self-interest — rests behind this: the US
mid-term elections, and the sudden insight of the US president that
ongoing war would mean an "economic catastrophe".
In
strategic terms, Israel's long-term tussle with Iran for dominance of
the region is now concentrated in the belt of land on its northern
border via Hezbollah — an Iranian proxy which seems likely to be getting
a lot more financial and logistical support from its backer as
sanctions are lifted.
And while
domestic politics in the US — as opposed to belatedly comprehended
strategic interests — tell even Trump that US interests don't lie in
continuing a war with Iran, domestic politics in Israel runs in
completely the other direction.
The
domestic political considerations in Israel are much more complex than
simply being a question about the future of Netanyahu.
The
Israeli PM has this week faced trenchant criticism across the political
spectrum in Israel — not just from the far right — for what is seen as
the failure of his war strategy.
But that doesn't imply, though, that the argument is for stopping its military campaigns.
If
anything, he is accused of not having gone hard enough in Lebanon, or
of being too willing to appease Trump by stopping direct attacks on
Iran.
Opposition politicians responded to the peace deal by pledging to go even harder.
The
discussion in Israel about Lebanon is not framed in terms of the fact
it has invaded another country, has displaced up to one million people,
and is now systematically razing kilometres of villages in the south.
It is framed as being purely about protecting northern Israel.
It
perpetually presents itself as the victim, in language that outsiders
can find jarring with the reality they see on their televisions.
For
example, Israel's ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter posted
on X on Friday that Israel remains "committed to the ceasefire
agreement reached between Israel, Lebanon and the US", a ceasefire which
has appeared a questionable concept over the past month.
"If Hezbollah does not violate the agreement, it will be kept," he wrote.
"Under
all circumstances, Israel retains its right to respond to attacks
against it and to thwart threats to its territory, citizens and
soldiers."
The message from
Israeli leaders has been clear and consistent from immediately after the
US-Iran deal was first announced at the beginning of the week: Israel
not only has no intention of stopping the fighting, it also has no
intention of respecting Lebanon's borders or withdrawing.
Israeli
Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Monday: "Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu and I are leading a clear policy that states that the IDF will
remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza — indefinitely —
in order to protect the border and Israeli communities from there
against jihadist elements."
Just
to put what has been happening in perspective, Al Jazeera reported
earlier this week that the "security zones" to protect Israeli
communities have expanded by approximately 1,000 square kilometres in
Gaza, Southern Lebanon and southern Syria, since October 7, 2023.
"This
newly controlled territory amounts to roughly 5 per cent of Israel's
total landmass prior to October 2023, which includes the occupied
Palestinian territories and the occupied Syrian Golan Heights", Al
Jazeera noted. (That is, including land that countries like Australia
which now recognise a Palestinian state also do not regard as belonging
to Israel.)
'Wake up and smell the reality'
Vance
said on Friday that "Donald J Trump is the only head of state in the
entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment
in time".
To be frank, he is probably right.
In
his remarks directed at Israeli ministers, Vance also observed: "Over
the last three months, two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have
protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for
by American tax dollars ... anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest
problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell
the reality."
This was seen as a direct threat that the US may do the previously unthinkable and stop providing US weapons to Israel.
If things progress as they are, that might well be the case.
But
a bit like thinking bombing Iran can bring down the regime, there are
considerable hazards in thinking such a move would necessarily force
Israel to back down.
Remember
the interview Netanyahu gave a month ago to the American 60 Minutes
program in which he boasted that "we're going to change the Middle
East"?
"I now see the
possibility of the expansion and the deepening of the agreements we do
have to alliances with Arab states of the kind that we never even
dreamed of," he said.
It was time Israel "weaned ourselves" off the $US3.8 billion ($4.2 billion) a year of military aid Israel gets from the US.
The reality that US support can no longer be presumed seems to now just be dawning in Israel. (Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein)
The
clear implication was that it would get more funding support from the
Gulf states to support its military as US aid wound down.
It
was only a month ago. It seemed a pretty wild idea then. As the Gulf
states have been pragmatically trying to work out how to improve their
relationships with Iran since then, it seems a completely fantastical
one now.
But it is important to
understand just how far from the rest of the world's reality Israel's
internal discussion now rests. It has been built on the basis of
confidence that the US would always support it.
The reality that the support can no longer be presumed seems to now just be dawning in Israel.
But
just as Netanyahu's claims to be able to influence Trump have now
become a burden to him, Trump's limited capacity to influence Netanyahu
spells just as much trouble for peace in the Middle East.
