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Attacks on US-owned data centres in the region could disrupt services around the world. (Google, Airbus)
Hello.
Here's your daily round-up of the latest headlines from the Middle
East, as the war engulfing the region reaches the end of day 32.
Here's what you need to know today:
Iran has launched a new threat against
US companies based across the Middle East, warning it will attack them
in retaliation for new strikes by the US in Iran. The Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) listed 18 companies, including tech
giants Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel and IBM.
The US defense secretary said there had been a significant drop in the number of Iranian missiles and drones launched in the last 24 hours — the lowest number in the war so far. Pete Hegseth said the next few days will be "decisive", and that "if Iran is wise, they will cut a deal" to end the war.
Donald Trump, once again, used his Truth Social platform to urge countries now worried about fuel shortages
to buy it from the United States — or go to the Strait of Hormuz and
"TAKE IT", as he once again sought help to open the key shipping lane.
He singled out the UK and France for not helping with the war with Iran. Meanwhile, Pakistan and China outlined their blueprint for peace talks and the reopening of the Strait.
European leaders have lined up to demand Israel respect Lebanon's sovereignty and avoid expanding its military operations in the south of the country. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney has gone further, labelling Israel's invasion as illegal. Israel's defense minister, Israel Katz, restated his country's intention to control the entirety of southern Lebanon,
from the border with Israel to the Litani River some 30 kilometres
north. He's also said all Lebanese homes near the border will be
demolished.
Under the cover of the war, the Israeli parliament has approved new laws making death by hanging the default sentence for Palestinians
convicted in the country's military justice system of serious, deadly
attacks. It has been met with outrage around the world, with the United
Nations labelling it "deeply discriminatory". Israel's far-right
national security minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, has welcomed the
legislation's passing in the Knesset with wine. Along with other
supporters, he'd been wearing a yellow lapel pin in the shape of a noose
in the last few weeks of campaigning — an imitation of the yellow
ribbons of the Gaza hostage movement.
Here's what all that means
Another day, another deadline — this time issued by the Iranian regime. The IRGC is warning of massive strikes
against US businesses, including tech giants and manufacturers such as
aircraft company Boeing, in retaliation for further attacks by the US
against Iran.
We're now less than 24 hours away from that deadline — the IRGC said the attacks would begin from 8pm Tehran time on Wednesday, which is 3:30am AEDT on Thursday.
The
Gulf is home to some of the world's biggest data centres — big tech
firms were thinking the region was going to become a powerhouse for the
sector. Data centres have already been targeted, and this warning suggests it is just the beginning of those attacks.
At
this point in the war, day 32, it seems the word "escalation" has been
overused. But this certainly would be another example of that, and could
have major ramifications around the world if services are disrupted.
Once again, it shows there's a jarring difference in the rhetoric being thrown around here.
The
US president and his key lieutenants insist Iran wants to strike a deal
and that its military might has been so seriously degraded that it's on
its knees.
Meanwhile, Iran is still maintaining a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz and is once again threatening the Gulf.
The much-discussed "off-ramp" in this war seems further and further down the highway by the day.
And here's the impact on Australia
Will we have enough fuel for Easter?
This is traditionally the time drivers would be scanning for cheaper
fuel ahead of filling up and heading out on a long weekend road trip.
This morning's episode of ABC News Daily looks at whether that's such a great idea (🎧 15m43s).
Zomi Frankom was killed by an IDF strike two years ago. (Facebook)
In short:
Tomorrow,
Wednesday April 1, marks two years since Australian woman Zomi Frankcom
was killed, along with other aid workers, in an IDF strike in Gaza.
Her
family is still waiting for a personal apology and compensation from
the Israeli government, as well as the results of an investigation by
the Israeli Military Advocate General.
What's next?
Israel's
ambassador to Australia said during a National Press Club address today
that he would "check" on the progress of the investigation.
For Zomi Frankcom's brother Mal, the second anniversary of her death will be particularly painful.
"Even though she was overseas a lot, we were still very close," he said.
It
will be two years ago on Wednesday that Australian aid worker Lalzawmi
"Zomi" Frankcom was killed, alongside six of her colleagues, by an
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) strike in Gaza.
"There hasn't been any kind of justice served or any movement with the case," Mr Frankcom told Radio National Breakfast.
"It's going to be painful every year, but having that would provide some kind of comfort."
Mal Frankcom said he was very close with his sister, Zomi. (ABC News: Callum Flinn)
For
two years the Frankcom family has been waiting for answers from an
investigation conducted by Israel's Military Advocate General.
"But the updates are that there are no updates," Mr Frankcom said.
The Military Advocate General is responsible for implementing the rule of law within the IDF.
Sally Sara spoke with Mal Frankcom on ABC Radio National Breakfast.
"It's
been two years and still nothing's happened and I've also heard that
other high profile cases there [in Israel] have since been closed, but
this one remains open," Mr Frankcom said.
Faced with uncertainty, he and his family have tried to maintain faith in the system and "hope that justice finds its course".
But that hope is fading.
"Reading
the news over the last two years since it's happened, that faith … it
gets diminished month on month," Mr Frankcom said.
Hillel Newman spoke at the National Press Club in Canberra on Tuesday. (ABC News: Callum Flinn)
Ambassador says he will 'check' status of probe
In an address to the National Press Club
on Tuesday, Israel's ambassador to Australia Hillel Newman denied that
the investigation into Ms Frankcom's death had been abandoned.
"I'm the ambassador of Israel — I've never heard that it's been shelved, OK?" he said.
"As far as I know, it has not come to a conclusion. But I will check again.
"The issue of penalising the soldiers who were involved … is a long judicial process."
After Dr Newman's address a spokesperson for the IDF confirmed the investigation was ongoing.
The IDF dismissed two officers over the strike, which it acknowledged violated the the organisation's rules of engagement.
The IDF strike laid waste to this vehicle in the convoy. (Supplied: Abdelhakim Abu Riash)
An Australian review of the strike
found there was a "significant breakdown in situational awareness" and
that the deaths were a result of serious failures to follow IDF
procedures.
"All requests for
access to information from the IDF were supported, except for the audio
of the 90-minute unedited footage of the World Central Kitchen convoy
and subsequent strikes," said Mark Binskin, who conducted the review.
The Israeli ambassador emphasised the level of access that Mr Binskin had to IDF intelligence.
"The
access that was given to Australia was unprecedented. [Mr Binskin] was
given full access to the occurrence itself and to the military
interrogation of what happened," he said.
"He drew up a conclusion that was categoric. He wrote his name onto the conclusion that the attack was not intentional."
Workers from Britain, Poland and Australia were among those killed in the strike. (AP Photo: Abdel Kareem Hana)
When
asked why Mr Binskin did not have access to audio of the drone strike,
the ambassador said granting access was up to the IDF, not him.
"I
can check why … if they are not releasing it, what is their reason. It
could have intelligence aspects. I don't want to guess why," Dr Newman
said.
Mr Binskin's report
recommended that Israel change the way it deals with groups delivering
aid to Palestinian civilians and that the Israeli government apologise
to Ms Frankcom's family and provide compensation.
"That still remains outstanding," Mr Frankcom said.
When
directly asked if he would apologise to the Frankcom family, the
Israeli ambassador to Australia was firm: "Sympathy [has] been
expressed."
Independent MP Zali Steggall has written to the Israeli ambassador to request an update on the case. (ABC News: Ian Cutmore)
Calls for Australian government, ambassador to do more
Independent MP for Warringah, Zali Steggall, has written to the Israeli ambassador to Australia calling for answers.
"I
urge ambassador Hillel Newman to provide clear answers, including an
update on Israel's military investigation, and to offer a formal apology
and compensation to Zomi's family," she said.
"And
I call on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to take a far tougher stance
against Israel and use every diplomatic lever to secure justice over the
unlawful killing of an Australian citizen.
"The
war in Gaza has been one of the deadliest ever for journalists and aid
workers, and those responsible must be held to account."
Mr Albanesemet with Mr Frankcom this afternoon.
The prime minister said he raised the issue directly with Israeli President Isaac Herzogwhen he visited Australia in February.
Zomi Frankcom was working for the World Central Kitchen aid group when she was killed. (LinkedIn)
Foreign Minister Penny Wong told parliament today she expected transparency in the ongoing investigation.
"We continue to press for full accountability, including any appropriate criminal charges," she said.
In
relation to access to the audio recording, Senator Wong said: "We have
made representations — during and since the Binskin report — to Israel
on this matter, on behalf of the family. We will continue to engage and
consult Ms Frankcom's family on their request."
Mal Frankcom says the family is considering establishing an humanitarian award in his sister's name. (ABC News: Katie McAllister)
Mr Frankcom said he and his sister had a "very tight relationship".
"We
had two and a half years in between us. We grew up in a very tight-knit
family. Our mother passed away in 2001 and that kind of bought us
closer," he said.
"She was a very happy, positive person."
To commemorate the two-year anniversary of her death, Mr Frankcom will attend a vigil in Sydney.
"I'll say a few words, we'll remember her and tell stories and remember her for the lovely person she was," he said.
Mal Frankcom said he and his sister became closer after their mother died. (ABC News: Callum Flinn)
The
family is considering partnering with an organisation to start a
humanitarian award in Ms Frankcom's name and would put any future
compensation towards it.
Bankstown-Canterbury Council has already unveiled a plaque and planted a tree in her honour.
Donald Trump told allies that were concerned about fuel shortages to "go get your own oil". (Reuters: Kevin Lamarque, file)
In short:
US
President Donald Trump has told America's allies the "US won't be there
to help you anymore" as he again criticised European nations for their
refusal to provide more military support for the Iran war.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the coming days will be "decisive" and Iran should "cut a deal" with the US.
But
Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened to target US tech companies
in the region, telling their employees to stay home to save their lives.
Donald
Trump has again attacked America's allies over their reluctance to get
involved in the Iran war, warning them the "US won't be there to help
you anymore, just like you weren't there for us".
The
US president singled out France and the UK in social media posts, which
told "all of those countries that can't get jet fuel" to "build up some
delayed courage, go to the Strait [of Hormuz], and just TAKE IT".
"The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!" he wrote.
In
a second post, Mr Trump said France had been "very unhelpful" after it
refused to allow planes carrying military supplies to Israel to fly over
French territory. France said its decision was in line with its
position since the start of the war, and it was "surprised by this
tweet".
Mr Trump has been expressing intensifying frustration with NATO nations and other allies, including Australia, for refusing to provide more military support for the US-Israel operations in Iran.
France,
Spain and Italy are among European nations that have refused to let US
warplanes use their military bases, according to local reports. The UK
has allowed the US to use British bases, but only for "specific and
limited defensive operations".
Shortly after Mr Trump's posts, the UK said it would deploy more troops to help Gulf countries facing Iranian attacks.
UK
Defence Secretary John Healey, who is visiting the gulf, said extra air
defence teams and systems would be sent to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and
Kuwait, and British jets would remain in Qatar.
British
media reported the new deployment would boost the UK's troop numbers in
the region to about 1,000. The British defence ministry did not confirm
those numbers and emphasised the UK was not "getting drawn into the
wider war".
The
US is less dependent on oil imports from the Middle East than other
parts of the world, particularly Asia, where some countries are
implementing emergency measures to reduce demand for fuel.
But
on Tuesday, local time, the average price of petrol in the US tipped
over $US4 a gallon ($5.82 a gallon) — a dreaded headline-making
threshold that has not been crossed since August, 2022. It had been less
than $US3 a gallon on the eve of the war.
Under
the new law, Palestinians convicted of deadly attacks classified as
"terrorism" will face the death penalty as a default sentence. (AP: Jehad Alshrafi)
In short:
Senior UN figures have sharply criticised the Israeli parliament for a "cruel and discriminatory" death penalty bill.
UN
rights chief Volker Turk warned that the law was "patently inconsistent
with Israel's international law obligations" and, if applied in the
occupied Palestinian territory, it could constitute a war crime.
He urged the Knesset to repeal the legislation.
The
United Nations has harshly criticised the Israeli parliament's approval
of a "cruel and discriminatory" new death penalty bill, warning that
applying it in occupied Palestinian territory "would constitute a war
crime".
Under the new law,
passed in parliament late on Monday, local time, Palestinians in the
occupied West Bank convicted by military courts of deadly attacks
classified as "terrorism" will face the death penalty as a default
sentence.
Stephane Dujarric, a
spokesman for UN chief António Guterres, said the world body stood
"against the death penalty in all its aspects, wherever".
"The
discriminatory nature of this particular law makes it particularly
cruel and discriminatory, and we ask that the Israeli government rescind
it and not implement it," Mr Dujarric told reporters in New York.
UN
rights chief Volker Turk also called for the bill to be "promptly
repealed", warning that it was "patently inconsistent with Israel's
international law obligations".
Because
Palestinians in the territory are automatically tried in Israeli
military courts, the measure effectively creates a separate and harsher
legal track.
In Israeli
civilian courts, the law allows for either death or life imprisonment
for those convicted of killing with intent to harm the state.
Israel
has only applied the death penalty twice — in 1948, soon after the
state's founding, against a military captain accused of high treason,
and in 1962, when Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann was hanged.
Mr
Turk stressed that "the death penalty is profoundly difficult to
reconcile with human dignity", cautioning that "its application in a
discriminatory manner would constitute an additional, particularly
egregious violation of international law".
"Its application to residents of the occupied Palestinian territory would constitute a war crime."
Benjamin Netanyahu was in the chamber, which erupted in cheers when the vote passed. (Reuters: Jonathan Ernst)
The
UN rights chief also expressed alarm at another bill currently before
the Knesset aimed at establishing a special military court exclusively
to prosecute crimes committed during and in the aftermath of Hamas's
October 7, 2023 attack inside Israel, which sparked the war in Gaza.
That court would not have jurisdiction over crimes committed by Israeli forces in the occupied Palestinian territory.
More than a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies remain trapped in the Persian Gulf. (Supplied: Sentinel Hub)
Winners are thin on the ground right now.
In
a case of rather unfortunate timing, US President Donald Trump last
week scheduled Easter Monday as the day he would "unleash hell" should
Iran's leaders reject his latest peace plan.
That
was after his initial two-day deadline turned into a week-long affair
before he extended it another 10 days, once again causing wild gyrations
on global markets that led to some highly unusual but extremely
profitable trading.
More on that later.
Trump
is now openly canvassing a ground operation to relieve Iran of its
enriched uranium and to take control of its oil which, unsurprisingly,
hasn't elicited any sign of capitulation from Tehran.
Despite
all the president's threats, more than one-fifth of the world's oil and
gas supplies remain trapped in the Persian Gulf as Iran maintains
almost total control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Already, the impacts are ricocheting through the global economy.
Fuel supplies are running short, even in countries like America and Australia that are energy exporters.
Price rises are already beginning to filter through the broader economy, while the cost of money is increasing sharply.
Global stock markets, remarkably restrained for the past month as the crisis unfolded, have begun to wobble.
Fuel supply has been affected by the war in the Middle East. (ABC News: Chris Taylor)
Wall
Street is now down more than 10 per cent from its recent peak —
officially considered a correction — with our own ASX200 sitting within a
whisker of that milestone.
As the gravity of the situation begins to unfold, investor confidence is waning, with many looking for an exit.
Even
that pillar of economic and investment growth in the past five years,
technology and artificial intelligence, is facing a potentially damaging
disruption from the conflict, threatening to undermine the lofty
valuations that have underpinned investment markets for the past three
years.
Black swan for the AI boom?
Some call it a black swan event — a life-altering wave of chaos completely out of left field.
Except,
after the two oil crises of the 1970s, energy industry analysts and
diplomats worldwide have spent decades war-gaming the potential impact
of a Middle East meltdown.
The only unexpected element to the current conflagration is that America has led the charge.
For
decades, ever since Iran captured US embassy staff and held them
hostage for more than a year, various administrations have debated an
Iran attack.
While there were
some naval skirmishes in the Persian Gulf in the 1980s, the idea of a
full-scale war was repeatedly rejected because of the potential hit to
the global economy from an oil blockade.
Until now.
Those
with long memories were always quick to remind senior officials that it
was a CIA-orchestrated coup in Tehran that unseated an elected leader
and installed the shah, helping create hostilities.
But
the war itself could now spawn further black swan events, particularly
in the world of technology, AI and on global capital markets.
Fuel
and fertiliser shortages have dominated coverage of the Persian Gulf
closure. But in the world of chip manufacturing, helium and sulphur are
key ingredients — much of which is also sourced from the Gulf.
Elements used in computer chip manufacturing are sourced from the Gulf. (Supplied: UNSW)
Helium
is produced from LNG and, due to the extensive damage to Qatar's
massive facility, is likely to be in short supply for who knows how
long.
Spot sulphur prices, meanwhile, have been soaring.
Long
before the chemical shortages, which ultimately will push up AI
development costs, there were serious concerns about whether the huge
amount of cash already invested in AI would deliver the kinds of returns
that justify the outlay.
Added to those concerns is the expected hike in the cost of energy globally.
Data
centres are springing up like mushrooms across the developed world.
Australia already has about 250 which, according to the Climate Energy
Council, already consume about 2 per cent of grid power.
But planned new data centres are much bigger,
with one in Sydney expected to consume as much as a small city, using
the equivalent of almost half the power from Victoria's Loy Yang A coal
power plant if just two of them run at full capacity.
Data
centre power consumption is expected to rise to 6 per cent of the grid
by 2030 and 11 per cent by 2035, growth targets that may well be
hindered by a sudden one-off surge in power generation.
Any
cut to the ambitious growth forecasts is unlikely to play out well on
stock markets that have concentrated on one sector for so long.
We want more, money market tells Trump
Cracks
are already beginning to emerge in America's monetary position as it
burns through its diplomatic credibility and depletes its firepower with
the constant bombardment of Iran.
Debt
now sits at an uncomfortable $US39 trillion and, at the most recent
auction last week, there was noticeably weaker demand for US government
bonds.
Donald Trump has been demanding US Federal Reserve cut interest rates. (Reuters: Elizabeth Frantz)
That
has been reflected on money markets. Weaker demand for government IOUs
means that interest rates must rise to make them more attractive to
buyers.
The yield, or interest
rate, on US 10-year bonds has soared in the past month by more than a
double rate hike. Investors are now fetching more than 4.4 per cent.
That's a marker for where investors see inflation and interest rates heading.
It also makes life harder for Trump.
For
the past year, he has demanded the US Federal Reserve cut interest
rates, a demand that if met now would cause chaos within the global
monetary system.
Those higher
rates will increase the soaring cost of servicing America's already huge
debt and will need to be paid for by, you guessed it, issuing even more
debt.
On
this side of the Pacific, the trend has been even more painful.
Australian 10-year government bonds are now sitting well above 5 per
cent as global growth prospects dim.
Just
yesterday, Westpac chief economist and former Reserve Bank assistant
governor Luci Ellis predicted three more rate hikes, an inflation rate
of 5.4 per cent and unemployment rising to 5 per cent.
Ouch.
In the know? Or just a psychic?
It took barely a minute to complete.
Last week, at 6:49am Monday, New York time, a huge volume of oil futures contracts was pushed through the market.
Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz. (AP: Altaf Qadri)
By
6:50am, about $US580 million worth of contracts covering Brent crude,
the global benchmark, and West Texas intermediate changed hands, sending
prices into free fall, dropping from just under $US100 a barrel to
$US89.
Minutes later, Donald
Trump announced, via his own social network platform Truth Social: "VERY
GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" with Tehran over a "COMPLETE AND
TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities.
Hours later, Tehran refuted the claims and oil prices began climbing, sparking calls for an investigation into the trading.
"At that time, there were no indications that any serious talks had been taking place between the US and Iran.
"So, to place so much money on oil going down raises questions."
With
the president continually lurching from one extreme position to
another, financial and commodity markets have been extraordinarily
volatile for much of the past year, ever since his Liberation Day
tariffs announcement sent Wall Street plunging almost 10 per cent.
But a new crypto-based avenue has also opened the door to high-stakes gambling on presidential decisions, Polymarket.
"The
idea that someone would trade on national security information or
information about upcoming terrorist activity — people thought that's
not even possible," Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia and one of
the co-authors told Bloomberg.
"Today what we're seeing in these prediction markets is that actually it is quite possible."
Kharg Island is among the sites threatened by Donald Trump. (Reuters: Planet Labs PBC)
G'day. I'm bringing you the latest updates from the Middle East, on day 31 of this war.
Here's what you need to know today:
Donald Trump has, once again, issued threats against Iranian power stations and oil wells, if Iran fails to release its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
Last week, the US president made similar remarks — only to walk them
back days later, talking up the prospect of a peace deal. But he's now
back on that rhetorical horse, promising to "obliterate" them. The new
deadline appears to be April 6.
Iran is holding firm in the face of such threats, and saying the current US peace proposal
is "unrealistic, illogical and excessive". The new plan had been handed
over to the Iranian regime by intermediaries, after talks between
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Türkiye.
The Lebanese Army
has revealed a soldier was killed and five others wounded in the south
of the country, after an Israeli strike on their checkpoint. Israel's
war is ostensibly against the militant group Hezbollah, with the
Lebanese Army a separate entity under the Lebanese state. Two UN peacekeepers were also killed. The death toll in Lebanon is creeping towards 1,250, with more than 3,600 injured.
As Iran continues targeting energy infrastructure in its attacks on the Gulf states, the global oil price
continues to rise. Brent crude is now heading towards $US113 a barrel.
The pressure that is putting on global fuel prices is clear, with
governments around the world grappling with how to provide some
cost-of-living relief. In Australia, the Albanese government has
announced it will halve the fuel excise for three months, cutting the price by around 26 cents a litre.
In Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists the region's most senior Catholic will have access to the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in the lead-up to Easter. On Sunday, Israeli police stopped Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa
from entering the church, which Christians believe is the site of
Jesus's crucifixion, burial and resurrection, to celebrate Palm Sunday
mass. World leaders had criticised the Israeli government for blocking
the cardinal, seemingly prompting the about-face.
Here's what all that means
Pope Leo, while celebrating Palm Sunday Mass
at the Vatican, made some pointed remarks seemingly directed at the
Trump administration. The pontiff, who is American, said Jesus "does not
listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them" and
quoted a verse from Isaiah: "Saying 'even though you make many prayers, I
will not listen. Your hands are full of blood'."
It appeared to be a direct reference to the US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who just days earlier had publicly prayed for "overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy".
The fiery rhetoric has become a hallmark of the White House under Trump.
The president has posted
on his Truth Social account once more to promise the US would be
"completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil
Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)" if the
Strait of Hormuz was not totally reopened to shipping by the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The language belies the chaotic approach
to diplomacy of the US president — on the one hand, talking up the
prospects of a peace deal with Tehran and saying the regime is
negotiating; on the other, he is once more pointing to major military
action if they don't comply.
In
terms of a carrot-and-stick approach, it doesn't look like it's
working. The Iranian regime is digging its heels in and refusing to
yield.
That could mean we're about to see another major escalation
in this war — and questions will be asked about the scope of the
conflict, given desalination plants are generally considered civilian
infrastructure under international law.
Destroying them, particularly as Iran copes with its recent widespread drought, could be argued to be a war crime.
And here's the impact in Australia
Fuel excise halved: It's a "temporary" measure that will cost the budget billions, but will it actually bring down the petrol price? (🎧30m15s)