Monday 31 October 2022

Ukrainians search for missing loved ones in war with Russia as bodies exhumed from graves near Bucha.

Extract from ABC News 

ABC News Homepage

Posted 
Three women link arms and carry flowers at front of a group along a dirty driveway.
The friends and family left behind in Ozera are trying to come to terms with what happened to their loved ones. (AP: Emilio Morenatti )

Tetiana Boikiv peered from the doorway of the cellar at the Russian soldiers questioning her husband about his phone.

Her husband Mykola Moroz — known as Kolia to his friends — called out to her.

"Come up. Don't be afraid," he said.

Kolia was trying to explain that the surveillance video they'd found was from his job as an electrician, all taken before the February invasion.

"I am a religious person," Kolia said.

"I haven't hurt anyone."

But the two soldiers and their commander did not listen. They put a bag over his head.

Despairing, Trina demanded to know what they would do with the man she called her big, big love.

"Shoot him," one of the soldiers replied. They took him away and Trina would never see Kolia again.

While atrocities in the nearby town of Bucha have captured the world's attention and become case number one for Ukraine's prosecutors, the slaughter there was not an aberration.

A woman sits on a bench, holding her head in her hands.
Tetiana "Trina" Boikiv was left desperately seeking answers after her husband was taken away by soldiers. (AP: Emilio Morenatti )

It was part of a trail of violence that spread far and wide, often under the radar of prosecutors, to ordinary villages like Zdvyzhivka, a half hour north of Bucha.

Much of the violence was systemic, not random, conceived and implemented within the command structures of the Russian military, an investigation by The Associated Press and the PBS series Frontline found.

Troops were instructed to block and destroy vestiges of "nationalist resistance", according to Russian battle plans obtained by the Royal United Services Institute, a prominent defence and security think tank in London.

They did so with consistent brutality, hunting potential enemies on Russian intelligence lists and torturing and killing volunteer fighters, veterans and civilians suspected of assisting Ukrainian troops.

The AP and Frontline interviewed dozens of witnesses and survivors and reviewed audio intercepts and surveillance camera footage to document what happened.

These cleansing operations — zachistka, in Russian — took on a sharper edge as the line between civilians and combatants blurred.

Men stand with shovels near wreaths of flowers with dark clouds overhead.
Those who were living under Russian ocupation in the region were sometimes forced to bury their own dead.(AP: Rodrigo Abd)

Ukraine has made it easy for anyone with a mobile phone connection to report the position of Russian troops, and many civilians do.

As Russian soldiers fought to suppress what has effectively become a crowdsourced resistance, they have swept up many civilians who have done nothing at all.

Ukrainian prosecutors have said they will address every crime committed in this war, but they are scrambling to triage more than 40,000 war crimes investigations.

Currently, their most pressing priorities are cases with promising evidence and high body counts.

Kolia would die in a garden not far away, possibly at the hands of troops commanded by the same man who led the Bucha operation, but his death has gone largely unnoticed.

That left Trina on her own to find her missing husband and struggle to make sense of his death.

Each time a new body turned up in Zdvyzhivka — a bucolic village an hour north of Kyiv that Russians turned into a major forward operating base for their assault on the capital — Father Vasyl Bentsa's phone would ring.

A bearded priest holds a phone by a pile of torn clothes
Father Vasyl Bentsa took photos to compare to potential evidence. (AP: Erika Kinetz )

The village priest had taken it upon himself to document the deaths.

On March 30, as Russian troops withdrew, the bodies of two unknown men, marked by torture, were found in the back garden of one of the biggest, ritziest houses in town.

Bullets had ripped through the red wood fence nearby and casings littered the ground. By the next morning when Father Bentsa arrived, three more bodies had appeared in the same spot.

There were no police, no prosecutors, no ballistics experts, no Ukrainian military around to call for help. There were just five men who needed names.

"We did not know at all who to contact," he said.

"To leave the bodies like that for a long time was stupid. Clearly, we all know physiology — the human will decompose and smell. What would we do with them?"

A priest stands on top of sandy ground in the middle of a forest cemetery.
Father Bentsa dug temporary graves for Kolia and four other men. (AP: Erika Kinetz)

Father Bentsa put on medical gloves and searched through the pockets of the corpses, looking for identification. He found none.

It did not seem like the men had been dead very long. A woman from town who helped remove the blindfold from one of the corpses got fresh blood on her hands.

Father Bentsa snapped photographs and helped haul the bodies to a graveyard at the edge of the forest.

He buried them together in a sandy pit, taking care to mark the spot with a rough wooden cross. "March 31, 2022," he scratched into the wood. "5 unknown men."

"It's a good thing someone had a pen," he said.

Fifteen minutes south, in Ozera, Trina kept hoping Kolia would reappear.

They had met at the botanical garden in Kyiv on a church outing for singles.

A man and woman stand surrounded by children at a table decorated with flowers.
Trina built a new life with her husband Mykola "Kolia" Moroz. Just months later she would watch Russian soldiers drag him away. (AP: Tetiana Boikiv)

Trina had moved from her home in the city to the village of Ozera just a few months before Russia's invasion to build a new life with Kolia.

Their house had bright blue doors and rough wood siding painted in cheerful blues and green. Friends said Kolia had golden hands and could fix anything.

Their backyard was stacked with construction materials to replace the roof.

Kolia got up before dawn to bring Trina fresh flowers from the fields. When they were apart, he sent her photos of flowers on her phone.

"He was like a child deep inside," Trina said.

He liked to collect small, beautiful things — stones, stamps, postcards, pieces of glass. In the evenings they'd take turns cooking. He baked a better apple pie than she did.

"Once Kolia said to me, Tania, what's the point in living for oneself? It's when you have somebody next to you, you can feel happy," she said.

"Somebody to live for, somebody to bake for, somebody to work for."

A young girl stands among a group of older women all wearing headcoverings inside a church.
Many still search for their own loved ones.(AP: Emilio Morenatti )

After the Russians left, word went around that a priest from Zdvyzhivka had photos of people who had been killed.

As soon as the roads were clear of landmines, Trina and two neighbours went to talk with him.

They found Father Bentsa in a large, hushed room filled with gilded Orthodox icons, where he had just finished mass.

Father Bentsa scrolled through the images of the dead on his phone.

At the third man, Trina froze. There was Kolia, dressed in his own clothes, with his own face, bloodied and beaten but intact.

His hands were curled into fists and his body was fixed in a fetal position. The joints of his legs were bent at strange angles. One eye was swollen shut, and his skull had been crushed.

"My Kolia! Kolia!" she cried, grabbing the priest's phone.

Father Bentsa told her police had exhumed Kolia and four others from their common grave six days earlier.

Trina and her neighbours drove home in silence.

Where was Kolia now?

A priest stands in a forest holding a large wooden cross.
Police left potential evidence of war crimes behind when they exhumed the bodies. (AP: Erika Kinetz )

Two other men from Ozera were also swept up by Russians looking for spotters and died together in the garden with Kolia.

One actually was a spotter, reporting detailed information about the location of Russian troops to the Ukrainian military.

On March 21 — six days after Kolia was taken — Serhii Kucher heard someone hollering his name outside the house he had taken refuge in, just around the corner from Trina's home.

When he walked outside, he saw his friend — a local driver named Andrii Voznenko — kneeling, shirtless in the cold, surrounded by Russians.

Mr Kucher said a soldier held a gun to Mr Voznenko's head and he confessed to acting as a spotter.

The soldiers demanded to know if Mr Kucher was a spotter too and forced him to strip so they could search him for tattoos. They threatened to shoot him in the knees.

"They searched the house, every room, every crevice," Mr Kucher said.

"They threatened that if any data gets sent from anywhere within the village, 'We will come back and shoot you on sight'."

Around 1pm, the Russians put a bag over Mr Voznenko's head and drove him away. Two other eyewitnesses corroborated Mr Kucher's account. They never saw Mr Voznenko alive again.

Ivan Boiko, an Ozera local who works for the emergency services of Ukraine, told AP and Frontline that Mr Voznenko was skilled at identifying Russian planes and vehicles.

"I was sending all of this information to the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian Army was hitting these positions," Mr Boiko said.

Mr Boiko said he lost contact with Mr Voznenko around March 10, nearly two weeks before Russians picked him up.

The day after Mr Voznenko was taken, another Ozera man named Mykhailo Honchar was picked up.

Eyewitnesses said Russian soldiers blindfolded him, bound his hands and legs and took him away after finding electronics equipment in his backpack.

A floral garland sits on top of a grave in a field near a brick home.
Andrii Voznenko was taken way after confessing to relaying information about Russian troops to Ukrainian forces.(AP: Erika Kinetz )

In Syria and during the Arab Spring, civilians used their phones to document conflict. But never before has a government mobilised technology to gather information in such an organised, widespread way, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on every citizen to help the war effort.

With a touch of the button from the start screen of Diia, Ukraine's e-government app, anyone can report Russian troop movements via a Telegram bot set up by the Ministry of Digital Transformation.

Mykhailo Fedorov, the minister of digital transformation, said on Twitter in April that in just five weeks the bot had collected 257,000 reports on military hardware, troops and war criminals.

The Security Service of Ukraine created its own Telegram bot and sent out SMS messages encouraging people to report Russian troop movements: "We will win together!"

"It does concern me because you are effectively turning citizens into intelligence assets," said Eliot Higgins, the founder of Bellingcat, an investigative group that has been working with crowdsourced documentation of atrocities for years.

"It creates a risk for those civilians. … Do we really want a government putting civilians in that position?"

Oleksiy Danilov, the head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, acknowledged the risks for civilians, but said the volunteers felt empowered by contributing to the defence of their country.

"The engagement of the locals was very important," Mr Danilov said.

"They risked their lives. They were helping their country."

Under the laws of war, civilians who pose a security threat can be detained, and soldiers could target civilians actively participating in hostilities, international human rights lawyers have said.

But under no circumstances is it legal to torture and kill civilians or combatants held as prisoners of war.

The degree of crowdsourced intelligence in Ukraine presents new legal questions.

"This really is a novel kind of issue," said Clint Williamson, a former US ambassador-at-large for war crimes issues.

"It's not contemplated under international humanitarian law."

However, he said the Ukrainian government has every right to mobilise the population.

"It is still the choice of each individual as to whether they participate," he said.

Three people picked up and tortured by Russian soldiers near Kyiv admitted to the AP, relatives or friends that they had been passing information about Russian troop positions to Ukrainian authorities. Two were later killed.

The day before Kolia was abducted, drone footage shows a fiery cloud bloom from the woods just outside Ozera as a Ukrainian rocket hit Russian artillery munitions.

The strike was so accurate that it was "perfectly logical" for Russians to suspect a spotter who gave information, said Pierre Vaux, an expert in digital investigations at the Centre for Information Resilience in London who analysed the video.

But it looks like Kolia told the truth about not being involved.

Mobile phone tower records for Kolia's mobile phone numbers obtained by The AP show that his phone was last active on February 25 — making it extremely unlikely that he sent in coordinates from the occupied town in the 18 days before his abduction.

Trina's first stop in her effort to find Kolia was the Bucha morgue.

By the time she arrived, spring was settling in over Bucha. Daffodils bloomed in front of ravaged houses. As the sun warmed the earth back to life, the bodies of Bucha began to stink.

The thick, sticky stench of the dead lingered around the morgue for weeks. The only immediate relief came from the scent of freshly cut pine wood in a small room packed with coffins.

Anna Dolid, a psychologist on duty at the morgue, tried to ease things by explaining, step by step, the process of reclamation when evidence of crimes must be gathered.

YouTube mass graves

All corpses needed to be exhumed so proper investigations could be done. There would be autopsies at one of a half dozen local morgues, and only then could a body be handed over for burial.

People watched in horror as loved ones were dug up from their yards.

"It was chaos. No-one understood what was happening," Ms Dolid said.

She kept smelling salts on hand to revive those who fainted from the trauma and handed out rafts of prescriptions for sedatives.

The question that rips through people's grief, Dolid said, is 'why did this happen?'

"It takes years to search for answers to these questions," she said.

If Trina could not get a why, she would settle for a where.

But Kolia's name was not on the lists of bodies at the morgue. There were three large refrigerated trucks parked outside. Her Kolia was probably inside one of them.

A man in a suit and a woman in a floral dress clasp hands, smiling in the sun. The man is looking at the woman
“Somebody to live for, somebody to bake for, somebody to work for.” (AP: Tetiana Boikiv)

Trina's friend from church opened each body bag and peered in at each dead face. He called her over once in a while to examine possible matches. She said they went through dozens of bodies.

They did not find Kolia.

A few days later, she got word that two unidentified bodies from Zdvyzhivka had come in. But the Bucha morgue was farming out overflow corpses to a half dozen other morgues. By the time Trina got back to Bucha, the Zdvyzhivka bodies were at the bottom of a stack of body bags in a refrigerated truck about to leave for the nearby town of Bila Tserkva.

Trina began to weep. If she couldn't hitch a ride on the truck, she threatened, she would climb in the back with all the dead people.

She couldn't let Kolia slip away again, so the driver made space for her in the cab.

When the truck was unloaded in Bila Tserkva, Boikiv peered in at the corpses from Zdvyzhivka.

They were in such poor shape that it was hard to be sure. A nurse told Tania to look not just at the clothes, but also at the teeth.

"I opened the mouth and looked at the teeth," she said, flinching at the memory. "It wasn't him."

She kept looking, then spotted Kolia's shoe peeking out from a partially open bag.

By the time Trina set eyes on her husband again, Kolia had been dead for a month.

His eyeballs had liquefied into a kind of white jelly. His skin was stretched and dry, disintegrating. The stench was piercing.

"I asked the nurse what's with the eyes," Trina said. "She told me the eyes rot first."

She recognised her husband by the shape of his skull and his beard. She peered into Kolia's mouth and looked at his fillings.

"I didn't want to bring someone else to my house," she said.

"Even without the eyes, I could tell it was my husband."

A group of people stand around a flower and silk wrapped coffin in a backyard.
Friends and neighbours gathered to farewell Kolia after weeks searching for him. (AP: Emilio Morenatti )

The day of the funeral, friends from church trickled into the yard and stood around Kolia's coffin.

"We will meet again, Kolia," Trina said, running her work gloves along the top of the casket.

"I will give him a hard time for not listening to me, and not leaving when we had a chance. And how much time was I searching for him? How much I've travelled."

The mourners sang, deep and slow, about coming closer to God, finding a place without sorrow. Under low slate clouds, they walked in a short procession to the cemetery behind the church.

Overhead, majestic storks circled instead of warplanes. As Trina went back home, neighbours embraced and sat together in front of their fences.

"Everything is beautiful here. But Kolia is gone," Trina said, looking at a row of tall red tulips her neighbour had planted.

"They took my big love," she said.

People sit and stand solemnly against the back wall of a church.
Mourners packed the service to remember Kolia. (AP: Emilio Morenatti )

All that's left now is the search for justice. For those who have lost loved ones, it is everything, and it is also nothing.

Around the time of the funeral, Father Bentsa knelt on the forest floor next to the pit where he had buried Kolia, Mr Voznenko and Mr Honchar. He still doesn't know the names of the other two men found in the garden.

Police had left things behind when they took away the corpses, and Father Bentsa matched them with his photographs of the mangled bodies.

"Maybe one day it will be useful," he said.

"If I bury them in the ground and there are no pictures, there's no evidence, no investigation."

How does one death – as deep a loss as the next – jump the line in the search for justice?

All across Ukraine, gardens and courtyards and basements were filling up with bodies. It was far from clear whether Kolia's would count.

The early signs did not reassure Trina. The only official documentation of his death she had was a slim strip of paper summarising the autopsy, which struck her as deeply inadequate.

It said her husband died of multiple gunshot wounds on March 25, 2022.

Boikiv had seen the photographs of Kolia's body and doubted it was bullets that killed him.

She gave a statement to Ukrainian authorities, but she said she hasn't heard from anyone since. She thinks she'd be able to identify the soldiers who took him, but no one has come around to ask. Most of what she learned about her husband's last days came from Father Bentsa.

Two women hug on a suburban dirt road.
For Trina and her neighbour, Svitlana Pryimachenko, the search is over, but justice is nowhere to be found. (AP: Emilio Morenatti )

If she believed that finding Kolia would bring her a measure of relief, it didn't turn out that way.

Her search was over, but Kolia was still gone, and her house rang with silence.

She said the people responsible for her husband's death should be identified and punished. But she's not optimistic that will happen. Nor is she convinced it would matter much.

"You will not bring him back," she said. "It won't change anything."

AP

Donors dig deep to prop up Pacific economies left reeling by the 'dire consequences of COVID'

Extract  from ABC News

By foreign affairs reporter Stephen Dziedzic
Posted 
A mother carries a baby in front of a dilapidated shack
Chinese development assistance to the Pacific has been decreasing since 2016.(ABC News: Kurt Johnson)

New figures show foreign aid to the Pacific surged to record highs as the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on regional economies, while Chinese development assistance fell to a new low.

The findings are contained in the latest iteration of the Lowy Institute's Pacific Aid Map, which analyses the flow of overseas development assistance into the region in 2020.

The main author of the map, the Lowy Institute's Alexandre Dayant, told the ABC several donors – particularly multilateral institutions – moved swiftly to help prop up Pacific economies left reeling by the pandemic and the shutdown of international travel.

"It's very impressive and it shows that the international community responded very swiftly in the face of the dire consequences of COVID in the Pacific," he said. 

ADB outspends Australia

The Institute says donors ploughed almost $6.2 billion into the region in 2020, substantially more than the $4.5 billion they provided in 2019.

A man stands in an office. There are bookshelves and newspapers in the background.
Alexandre Dayant says Australia is still the largest donor country in the Pacific. (Supplied: Alexandre Dayant)

Australia remained by far the largest donor country in the Pacific.

The Aid Map estimates Australia spent more than $1.4 billion on assistance to the Pacific in 2020, around 29 per cent of the total foreign aid provided.

However for the first time since Lowy's records begin, Australia was narrowly eclipsed as the largest donor entity in the Pacific, with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) providing $1.65 billion in assistance – around 34 per cent of the total.

Mr Dayant said the ADB effectively tripled its development budget in the region in response to COVID-19, offering loans to several Pacific Island countries to help them stay afloat.

The logo of the ADB.
The Asian Development Bank provided providing $1.65 billion in assistance. (AFP: Ted Aljibe)

"This is a huge increase in loans and huge budget support in the Pacific," he said.

"There was a decrease in non-COVID projects, because many development partners couldn't implement projects on the ground due to travel bans and health measures," he said.

"This meant that direct budget support was one of the best and quickest ways to provide finance and the resources that Pacific Island countries needed at the time."

The largest donors after Australia and the ABD were Japan, the United States and New Zealand, which spent $477 million, $375 million and $350 million respectively in 2020.

China spent just $273 million in 2020, the lowest annual figure recorded in the data captured by the Pacific Aid Map, which tracks foreign aid since 2008.

China's supply and demand issues

Mr Dayant said Chinese development assistance to the Pacific had been decreasing since 2016.

"It's both on the demand and supply side," he said. 

"On the supply side, China's economy has been slowing down so perhaps it's less appealing for the Chinese government to make these loans or to help other countries around the world.

"And on the demand side, perhaps Pacific nations have woken up to the fact that the quality of the Chinese loans and some infrastructure projects might be a bit questionable.

"So this might have had an impact on the Pacific's appetite for these projects."

Mr Dayant said Chinese loans for infrastructure were also comparatively expensive, and several other countries were now offering infrastructure financing to Pacific Island nations.

"In 2020 the landscape for infrastructure financing has changed, it's more crowded, with many more players – including Australia," he said.

"So I think basically it's becoming harder and harder for China to compete."

However, Beijing still spent around $50 million on projects in both Solomon Islands and Kiribati, the two Pacific Island countries which switched recognition to China from Taiwan the year before.

Mr Dayant said while the broader surge in development assistance was crucial during COVID-19, several Pacific nations were now dealing with very high debt levels, and donors had to make sure they weren't overloaded.

"Because the fiscal space and the debt situation in the Pacific is getting worse it is important for development partners to act with care in the Pacific," he said.

"Budget support is a great tool for development partners to help the region, especially now as we see economic recovery in the region. So the money you invest can generate more.

"But still, extra care will need to be taken for those who want to lend."

Sunday 30 October 2022

European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035 to boost electric vehicle uptake.

 Extract from ABC News

Posted 17 hours ago
A white plogo of a car witha  power plug on a gree background.
Many European car manufacturers have announced investments in electrification ahead of the EU agreement.(ABC News: Elizabeth Pickering)

The European Union has struck a deal on a law to effectively ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035, aiming to speed up the switch to electric vehicles and combat climate change.

Negotiators from the EU countries and the European Parliament, who must both approve new EU laws, as well as the European Commission, which drafts new laws, agreed that car makers must achieve a 100 per cent cut in CO2 emissions by 2035, which would make it impossible to sell new fossil fuel-powered vehicles in the 27-country bloc.

"This deal is good news for car drivers… new zero-emission cars will become cheaper, making them more affordable and more accessible to everyone," parliament's lead negotiator Jan Huitema said on Thursday.

EU climate policy chief Frans Timmermans said the agreement sent a strong signal to industry and consumers.

"Europe is embracing the shift to zero-emission mobility," he said.

The deal also included a 55 per cent cut in CO2 emissions for new cars sold from 2030 versus 2021 levels, much higher than the existing target of a 37.5 per cent reduction by then.

New vans must comply with a 100 per cent CO2 cut by 2035, and a 50 per cent cut by 2030 compared with 2021 levels.

Investments in electrification

With regulators increasing the pressure on car makers to curb their carbon footprint, many have announced investments in electrification.

Volkswagen boss Thomas Schaefer this week said that from 2033, the brand would only produce electric cars in Europe.

Still, the EU law met some resistance when it was proposed in July 2021, with European car industry association ACEA warning against banning a specific technology and calling for internal combustion engines and hydrogen vehicles to play a role in the low-carbon transition.

Negotiators agreed on Thursday that the EU would draft a proposal on how cars that run on "CO2 neutral fuels" could be sold after 2035.

Small car makers producing less than 10,000 vehicles per year can negotiate weaker targets until 2036, when they would face the zero-emission requirement.

The law is the first to be finalised from a broader package of new EU policies, designed to deliver the bloc's targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Brussels is seeking deals on two more laws from the package in time for the United Nations climate negotiations in November, in a bid to show that despite a looming recession and soaring energy prices, the bloc is pressing ahead with its climate goals.

Reuters

Saturday 29 October 2022

Peter Dutton delivers red meat to the conservative base while moderates wait for the second coming of Josh Frydenberg.

Extract from The Guardian


The opposition leader’s doubling down on crusades that estrange the party from its inner-city heartland must have felt pretty eccentric from the teal corner.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton
‘Peter Dutton’s position on the climate crisis and the energy transition has actually regressed from Morrison’s stance.’

As I took my seat in the press gallery directly above Dutton, I drew a mental triangle in the chamber below. One point of my triangle was Scott Morrison. These days, Morrison sits over Dutton’s right shoulder, at the back of the chamber. I was conscious Morrison would have to sit and watch his former leadership rival characterise his legacy. That can’t have been comfortable. Dutton was generous to Morrison in the end, although he acknowledged mistakes had been made.

My eyes then wandered to the tip of my triangle. To the left of Dutton were the teal independents, representing the electoral territory the Liberal party lost in May. The group watched first with interest, then polite bemusement as the Liberal leader ploughed through his budget reply speech.

If you missed it, Dutton’s contribution was a generous slab of red meat for the conservative base – down with gas field-opposing green activists, down with “radical gender theory”, down with relativism in the classroom. Laced through this rage against modernity were personal anecdotes and cost-of-living empathy.

Doubling down on some of the crusades that estrange the Liberal party from its inner-city heartland would have felt pretty eccentric from the teal corner. Howard-era rinse and repeat has thus far cost the Liberals the seats of Warringah, Wentworth, North Sydney, Mackellar, Goldstein, Kooyong, Brisbane, Ryan and Curtin. But doubling down is what Dutton is doing.

Completing my visual triangle on Thursday night were the victors – the Albanese government – arrayed across the chamber from Dutton, monitoring the opening sorties of the vanquished. Budget weeks have an iron-clad rule. There is no narrative without a counter-narrative.

This point might require some unpacking. Budgets are as much about narrative as they are about accounting. Governments spend the weeks leading up to budget night defining what their economic statement will be about. There are also those magical hours in the budget lock-up where the incumbent government seals the media off from the outside world so they can spend hours sequestered with the big egos of sideshow alley, massaging the initial coverage. The Canberra lock-up ritual is prized, because it is the only semblance of pseudo- control that remains in the rolling cacophony of modern Australian politics.

Going into the October budget, the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, framed the whole enterprise as delivering Labor’s election promises and beginning a conversation about how Australia actually pays for the empathetic government people want. (Hint: not with more borrowing). As narrative exercises go, this one was highly successful. Calm, orderly, clear – one of the better run-ups I’ve seen.

But the counter-narrative always begins the moment the embargoed budget papers are opened. Chalmers had acknowledged the primacy of the inflation problem during all the pre-publicity, so all eyes went to the inflation analysis in budget paper number one, which included a forecast that energy prices would be 56% higher over the next couple of years.

From that point in the proceedings, the budget was exclusively about energy and the cost of living, and what Labor was or wasn’t doing about it. Once the centre of gravity in the storytelling shifted, a lantern was hung over the only radical element of Labor’s steady-as-she-goes budget – the government’s decision to part ways with the cash support that became normalised during the pandemic.

When Dutton stood up on Thursday night, this was the seam he wanted to mine. Dutton’s counter-narrative to Labor calling time on pandemic fiscal habits was, This heartless government doesn’t care if your power bill goes up, and their green-left obsession about bolting more renewables into the system will drive your power bill up even further.

Dutton well understands that events – a war in Ukraine, a global recession, an inflation cycle that won’t moderate, a persistent shortage of labour and construction materials, the creaking mess of generation assets that the Coalition left as its legacy after a decade of lying about climate change – could well mean Labor is unable to move as quickly as it would like with the transition to low emissions. Election promises might get broken. Ambition could fall short.

Dutton’s narrative is Labor is ideological and incompetent. Even though all the experts – including the people who run Australia’s energy market – tell us the transition to renewables will deliver cheaper power and leave us less exposed to global shocks, the Liberal leader will claim the opposite is true, and weave Labor’s pre-election statements into a crown of thorns.

Dutton’s best means of breaking back into the contest from a position of near irrelevancy is to draw Labor into a bare-knuckle fight.

This drive-by politics might not work for a bunch of reasons. But there was one clear takeout from budget week. The climate wars are a long way from over at the political level.

Labor has a big explanatory task, and an even bigger managerial task, to ensure the national interest prevails in a renewed dog-fight with opportunistic hyper-partisanship. Rather than settling back in comfort on the government benches, imagining voters will see through the magical thinking and the mendacity, Labor has a staggering amount of work to do.

My impression over recent months has been the new regime is too grateful to be back in government and too frantic rolling out its agenda to project to the outside world as masters of the universe. But this week, there was an unproductive undertone.

Peter Dutton delivers his budget reply last week. His best means of breaking back into the contest is to draw Labor into a bare-knuckle fight.
Peter Dutton delivers his budget reply last week. His best means of breaking back into the contest is to draw Labor into a bare-knuckle fight. Photograph: Martin Ollman/Getty Images

At one point, Chalmers referred to Dutton as the “leader of the leftovers” – pithy, but pitiless. The energy minister, Chris Bowen, hit with a volley of tendentious questions, did nothing to hide his disdain – a response I find relatable, because veterans of the climate wars are sick of trying to be polite in this never-ending shit shower – but different versions of Screw you Angus Taylor across the dispatch box probably have less utility than cool, clear explanation of complex issues to disengaged voters. Anthony Albanese at one point chose to reflect on where Paul Fletcher was sitting in the chamber in order to highlight the diminished position for the manager of opposition business in the Liberal front bench firmament. Why? Albanese is the prime minister, not the opposition whip.

The braying does have a context. The new government is of the view that a number of its ALP predecessors didn’t spend enough time post-victory delegitimising their political opponents. Traditionally, the Coalition has been much better at this than Labor, and that’s part of the reason the Coalition has won more elections and remained in office longer. Focusing on deficiencies is thought to be a corrective.

But the skittish combativeness of the week was a diversion from one of Albanese’s mantras, which is Persuade, don’t polarise.

There’s a fine line between systematically delegitimising your opponents on matters of substance, and looking smug, arrogant or gratuitous. There was some wobbling along that line this week.

Australia drops opposition to treaty banning nuclear weapons at UN vote.

 

Penny Wong has said the government supports the new treaty’s ‘ambition of a world without nuclear weapons’.
Foreign affairs and defence correspondent
Sat 29 Oct 2022 08.59 AEDTFirst published on Sat 29 Oct 2022 08.43 AEDT
Australia has dropped its opposition to a landmark treaty banning nuclear weapons in a vote at the United Nations in New York on Saturday.

While Australia was yet to actually join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, the shift in its voting position to “abstain” after five years of “no” is seen by campaigners as a sign of progress given the former Coalition government repeatedly sided with the United States against it.

The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, said through a spokesperson that Australia had “a long and proud commitment to the global non-proliferation and disarmament regime” and that the government supported the new treaty’s “ambition of a world without nuclear weapons”.

The previous Coalition government was firmly against the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, a relatively new international agreement that imposes a blanket ban on developing, testing, stockpiling, using or threatening to use nuclear weapons – or helping other countries to carry out such activities.

Australia voted against opening negotiations on the proposed new treaty in late 2016 and did not participate in those talks in 2017. Since 2018 it has voted against annual resolutions at the UN general assembly and first committee that called on all countries to join the agreement “at the earliest possible date”.

That changed early on Saturday morning when Australia shifted its voting position to abstain. Indonesia, New Zealand, Malaysia and Ireland were among countries to co-sponsor this year’s supportive UN resolution.

Australia traditionally argued the treaty would not work because none of the nuclear weapons states had joined and because it “ignores the realities of the global security environment”.

It also argued joining would breach the US alliance obligations, with Australia relying on American nuclear forces to deter any nuclear attack on Australia.

But the treaty has gained momentum because of increasing dissatisfaction among activists and non-nuclear states about the outlook for disarmament, given that nuclear weapons states such as the US, Russia and China are in the process of modernising their arsenals.

The treaty currently has 91 signatories, 68 of which have formally ratified it, and it entered into force last year.

The Nobel peace prize-winning International Campaign Against Nuclear Weapons (Ican) had been urging Australia to vote in favour of the UN resolution on Saturday – or at least abstain in order to “end five years of opposition to the TPNW under the previous government”.

Labor’s 2021 national platform committed the party to signing and ratifying the treaty “after taking account” of several factors, including the need for an effective verification and enforcement architecture and work to achieve universal support.

These conditions suggest the barriers to actually signing may still be high. But Gem Romuld, the Australia director of Ican, said the government was “heading in the right direction” and engaging positively with the treaty.

Romuld said it “would be completely self-defeating to wait for all nuclear-armed states to get on board” before Australia joined.

“Indeed, no disarmament treaty has achieved universal support and Australia has joined all the other disarmament treaties, even where our ally – the US – has not yet signed on, such as the landmine ban treaty,” Romuld said.

In 2017 the US, the UK and France declared that they “do not intend to sign, ratify or ever become party” to the new treaty, and the Trump administration actively lobbied countries to withdraw.

Wong told the UN general assembly last month that Australia would “redouble our efforts” towards disarmament because Russian president Vladimir Putin’s “weak and desperate nuclear threats underline the danger that nuclear weapons pose to us all”.