A personal view of Australian and International Politics : November 2018

Friday 30 November 2018

After Cohen's guilty plea, the threads of Trump Inc are fraying

The spectacle of Mueller cornering Trump’s gang is fascinating to watch and essential to the rebuilding of the rule of law

@richardwolffedc

Trump and Melania on Thursday. We now live in a world where America’s truly worst president ever insists that cash is king.

Donald and Melania Trump on Thursday. We now live in a world where America’s truly worst president ever insists that cash is king. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

The great unraveling has begun. Between the latest guilty plea by Donald Trump’s fixer and the breakdown of a guilty plea by his campaign chairman, the threads are fraying on the scheming enterprise that is Trump Inc.
The man pulling at the many loose ends of this loosey-goosey business is working methodically in ways that are only clear in hindsight. Robert Mueller, the special counsel, is a strategic mastermind cornering a gang of simpletons watched by a peanut gallery of gawkers and hecklers.

The spectacle is both fascinating to watch and essential to the rebuilding of the rule of law. The United States urgently needs to resume its role as a global example of good government. Especially when its own government is rotten to the core.
Republicans in Congress may refuse to investigate the Trump administration, but Mueller and the courts are reaffirming that it matters when people break election laws, tax laws, lobbying laws, or lie under oath. It matters when foreign agents conspire to attack the United States by hacking into the computers of one of its main political parties.
Meanwhile our simpleton-in-chief can only sputter on the sidelines of Twitter about the many ways Mueller is plainly driving him nuts.
“Did you ever see an investigation more in search of a crime,” Trump tweeted while he should have been prepping for another world summit. As a matter of fact, investigations are supposed to search for crimes, but that’s beside the point for the man who can fire and hire an attorney general. He would much prefer an investigation into anyone else right now: the Grinch who stole Christmas, Hillary Clinton, the man who broke the bank at Monte Carlo. Anyone will do.
“After wasting more than $40,000,000 (is that possible?), it has proven only one thing – there was NO Collusion with Russia,” he tweeted barely an hour later, still stewing in his own resentment. “So Ridiculous!”
To answer the president’s questions: yes, it’s possible to spend a lot of federal dollars (see: corporate tax cuts, Trump administration). No, Mueller hasn’t cost the taxpayer a dime after all the property he seized from Trump’s campaign chairman. The only Ridiculous Thing about this is pretending that the Question of Collusion has been Answered.
But since you mentioned Collusion, Mr President, let’s yank a little more on this thread, shall we?

Trump: 'Michael Cohen is weak and trying to get a reduced sentence' – video

Michael Cohen’s bombshell of a plea deal on Thursday establishes that Trump’s personal and business lawyer was colluding with the Russian government during the presidential election of 2016 to profit from a possible real estate deal.
Normally you might describe a political figure profiting from his public office – even his potential for public office – as corrupt. But the leader of the free world prefers to describe it another way: good business.
“I was running my business while I was campaigning,” Trump told reporters on Thursday. “There was a good chance that I wouldn’t have won, in which case I would have gone back into the business and why should I lose lots of opportunities.”
Why indeed? Why surrender private profit when you want to enter public service? What a quaint idea, enshrined into US law by something called the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

"Trump has found himself surrounded by the most dismal collection of indicted, colluding, lying aides and employees"

We used to live in a world where America’s worst president ever was defined by his insistence that he wasn’t a crook. We now live in a world where America’s truly worst president ever insists that cash is king.
To be fair, Trump has good reason to feel victimized. Some way, somehow, he has found himself surrounded by the most dismal collection of indicted, colluding, lying aides and employees.
Imagine Trump’s surprise when he discovered that Cohen was, as he put it on Thursday, “a weak person” who is “lying very simply in order to get a reduced sentence”. Don’t you hate those weak selfish liars who pretend to be strong and helpful? It’s like saying you’re helping the depressed rust belt while slapping down tariffs that shutter its remaining factories.
Imagine Trump’s horror when he found that Paul Manafort, his campaign chairman, was guilty of financial fraud and lying to prosecutors. All the poor man was trying to do was change the Republican party platform on Russia’s annexation of Ukraine, and, well, collude with the president’s lawyers. Yes, he may have also secretly met with WikiLeaks during the election. But that’s no reason to think there was actual, you know, collusion.
We can be sure that Trump is as surprised as we are that federal agents on Thursday raided the offices of a Chicago alderman who also worked on property taxes for one Donald Trump.
Truly, has there ever been a wealthy businessman so mistreated by so many people who worked so closely for him? Even his national security adviser turned out to be a liar who had close contacts with the Russians after the 2016 elections. Imagine how Trump will feel when he sees Michael Flynn sentenced in a few days’ time.
Betrayed, no doubt, in more ways than one.

Trump is right. This investigation needs to come to an end. We need to know what Mueller knows. We need to know how Trump’s honest motive to make money was honestly at the heart of everything he has done. We need to forget the pee tapes and follow the money.

Australia’s carbon emissions grow at fastest rate since 2004

Climate change

Report says Australia will fall short of meeting its nationally determined contributions under the Paris agreement

Nick Evershed

@NickEvershed

The latest figures add evidence to claims by the UN, climate and energy analysts, and the opposition that Australia will fail to meet its Paris targets. Photograph: David Gray/Reuters

Australia’s carbon emissions have again continued to increase, according to official government figures released on Friday.
The results show emissions are rising much faster than in recent years – the quarterly growth trend is the highest it has been since 2004.
Australia’s emissions, seasonally adjusted, increased 1.3% over the past quarter. Excluding emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (for which the calculations are controversial), they are at a record high.

But per capita emissions have continued to decline, and are now at their lowest level in 28 years.
The report puts the absolute increase down to a rise in fugitive emissions because of increased LNG production, as well as higher emissions from transport and other sectors.

On Wednesday, the UN released its annual emissions gap report, which looks at the gap between carbon reduction policies in each country and what is required to keep global warming well below 2C.

The report found that Australia would fall short of meeting its nationally determined contributions (NDC) under the Paris agreement, saying: “There has been no improvement in Australia’s climate policy since 2017 and emission levels for 2030 are projected to be well above the NDC target.
“The latest projection published by the government shows that emissions would remain at high levels rather than reducing in line with the 2030 target.”
Australia’s environment minister, Melissa Price, said on Wednesday the government had “the right mix of scalable policies to meet our 2030 targets”.
“Policies like the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation have led to emissions reductions in the electricity sector, for instance,” she said.
“And they continue to deliver results. Wind and solar generation in the national electricity market is projected to increase by 250% over the next three years.”

Climate change strike: thousands of school students join national protest

Extract from The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/30/climate-change-strike-thousands-of-students-to-join-national-protest

Coca-Cola Amatil to sell SPC, abandons turnaround plans

Extract from ABC News

By business reporter David Chau

Updated about an hour ago

Can of SPC fruit salad, peaches and beans on a kitchen counter.

Photo: SPC is expected to produce a $10 million loss for its owner, Coca-Cola Amatil. (AAP: Dan Peled)

Coca-Cola Amatil has decided to sell its struggling SPC fruit and vegetable processing business, abandoning its former plans to turn it around.

Key points:

Coca-Cola Amatil says there are no plans to shut down SPC's cannery
SPC employs 220 full-time workers in Shepparton, and an additional 1,100 in picking season
Amatil is not expecting to meet its growth target for the current financial year

The beverage company is expecting a $10 million loss for SPC in the 2017/18 financial year.
The news of the sale comes four years after Amatil and the Victorian government invested large sums of money — $78 million and $22 million respectively — into SPC to keep it afloat to prevent job losses.
Amatil's chief executive Alison Watkins said there were still "many opportunities for growth in SPC", following a strategic review of the business, which began in August.
She said these included "new products and markets, further efficiency improvements, and leveraging technology and intellectual property".
Furthermore, she said IXL and Taylor's would still be part of SPC, after Amatil's plans to sell those brands fell through.
Amatil has not commented on any potential buyers, but said there were "no plans" to shut down SPC's operations.

Minimal local impact

SPC employs about 220 full-time employees at its Shepparton plant, and a further 1,100 workers during the picking season.
Sam Birrell, who heads a local economic group, the Committee for Greater Shepparton, was not surprised about Amatil's plans.
"We knew that CCA were conducting a review, and it's not as big an employer as it was," he said.
"A lot of the orchardists are more reliant on the fresh food market than the processing fruit market.
"So whilst it's an iconic company, I think Shepparton has gone beyond the one-industry or one-factory town that perhaps it was many years ago."
Shepparton fruit grower Gary Godwill who witnessed the highs and lows of the struggling fruit processor said the company would cease to exist if it hadn't been purchased by Coca-Cola Amatil.
He said he was initially surprised CCA had bought the company.
"Possibly they regret that now, nonetheless they have pumped a lot of money into it, without a buyer like CCA I don't think the company would exist now, it would've gone broke," Mr Godwill said.
"I think it's a growing concern. Let's hope that the right hands buy it and hope that it's not an asset stripper.
"With the right political settings, it could be a very sound business and let's hope someone with courage comes in and buys it and operates it the way it's being operated currently."

'Transitional' year ahead

Ms Watkins warned Coca-Cola Amatil's 2017/18 full-year results would be weighed down by $50 million in expenses due to "cost optimisation programs".
She also flagged that her company would be unable to meet its mid-single digit earnings growth target in the 2018/19 financial year.
That was due to the impacts of "the container deposit schemes in Australia, higher PET resin costs and a weak Indonesian rupiah", she said.
Coca-Cola Amatil's share price plunged 12.5 per cent to $8.74 at 1:10pm (AEDT), wiping out its gains in the last six months.
Ms Watkins signalled there was already interest in the company being bought.
She said she did not regret the investment into SPC, and that it was in a better state than it was in 2013, when there was serious concern it could have been shut down and manufacturing taken offshore.
"The ten million dollar loss is not a big deal in the scheme of things. It's a modest loss, I would describe it as," she said.
"The challenge for the business is top-line growth, but the core structure of the business now is very good. So what will move that loss to a profit is growth, and that's what the business is poised to do.
"We really see a very bright future as a result of the investment we've made."

Electric cars in China secretly send location information to government-backed surveillance centres

Extract from ABC News

Posted about 2 hours ago

A red electric Tesla vehicle charges while parked next to a black Tesla as security guard is seen walking in the background.

Photo: Tesla is one of 200 manufacturers sending position information to government-backed organisations. (AP: Ng Han Guan)

Over 200 car manufacturers are sending real-time location information and dozens of other data points from electric vehicles in China to surveillance centres backed by the country's government.

Key points:

Cars made by more than 200 manufacturers are transmitting position information to surveillance centres
The information is generally transmitted without owners' knowledge
Chinese officials say the data is being used to improve public safety, but critics say it is beyond that scope

The move — which comes as President Xi Jinping steps up the use of technology to track Chinese citizens — potentially adds to the rich kit of surveillance tools available to the Chinese Government.
Manufacturers including Tesla, Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, Nissan, Mitsubishi and NIO are among those transmitting position information and dozens of other data points to government-backed monitoring centres.
Generally, it happens without car owners' knowledge.
The manufacturers say they are merely complying with local laws, which apply only to alternative energy vehicles.
Chinese officials say the data is used for analytics to improve public safety, facilitate industrial development and infrastructure planning, and to prevent fraud in subsidy programs.

A dialogue box sits in the middle of a black screen with approximately 100 blue and white dots, which represent vehicles.

Photo: A dialogue box shows details of a vehicle from amongst thousands tracked and displayed at a government-backed monitoring centre in China. (AP: Ng Han Guan)

But other countries that are major markets for electronic vehicles — the United States, Japan and Europe — do not collect this kind of real-time data.
Critics say the information collected in China is beyond what is needed to meet the country's stated goals.
It could be used not only to undermine foreign carmakers' competitive position, but also for surveillance — particularly in China, where there are few protections on personal privacy.
Under the leadership of Mr Xi, China has unleashed a war on dissent, marshalling big data and artificial intelligence to create a more perfect kind of policing, capable of predicting and eliminating perceived threats to the stability of the ruling Communist Party.
There is also concern about the precedent these rules set for sharing data from next-generation connected cars, which may soon transmit even more personal information.

A bigger brother?

According to national specifications published in 2016, electric vehicles in China transmit data from the car's sensors back to the manufacturer.

Leave no dark corner

China is building a digital dictatorship to exert control over its 1.4 billion citizens. For some, "social credit" will bring privileges.

From there, manufacturers send at least 61 data points, including location and details about battery and engine function to local centres.
Data also flows to a national monitoring centre for new energy vehicles run by the Beijing Institute of Technology, which pulls information from more than 1.1 million vehicles across the country, according to the National Big Data Alliance of New Energy Vehicles.
Though electric vehicle sales accounted for just 2.6 percent of the total last year, policymakers have said they'd like new energy vehicles to account for 20 percent of total sales by 2025.
Maya Wang, a senior China researcher for Human Rights Watch, described the threat posed by vehicle tracking: "The Government wants to know what people are up to at all times and react in the quickest way possible".

"There is zero protection against state surveillance," Ms Wang said.

"Tracking vehicles is one of the main focuses of their mass surveillance."

Data on wheels

Many vehicles in the US, Europe and Japan transmit position information back to automakers, who feed it to car-tracking apps, maps that pinpoint nearby amenities and emergency services providers.
But the data stops there.
Car manufacturers initially resisted sharing information with Chinese monitoring centres — then the Government made transmitting data a prerequisite for getting incentives.
Global car manufacturers stressed that they share data to comply with Chinese regulations.

Why do the Chinese seem willing to give up their privacy for security?

The Chinese government's move to roll out a Social Credit System begs the question of whether citizens are more willing to give up their privacy than in countries like Australia.

Nearly all have announced plans to aggressively expand their electric vehicle offerings in China, the world's largest car market.
"There are real-time monitoring systems in China where we have to deliver car data to a government system," Volkswagen Group China chief executive Jochem Heizmann said.
He acknowledged that he could not guarantee the data would not be used for government surveillance, but stressed that Volkswagen keeps personal data, like the driver's identity, secure within its own systems.
"It includes the location of the car, yes, but not who is sitting in it," he said, adding that cars won't reveal any more information than smart phones already do.
"There is not a principle difference between sitting in a car and being in a shopping mall and having a smart phone with you."
Jose Munoz, the head of Nissan's China operations, stressed that the car manufacturer operated according to the law.

"At Nissan, we are extremely committed to the Chinese market," he said. "We see it as the market that has the greatest opportunity to grow," Mr Munoz added.

Ford, BMW and NIO declined to comment. Mitsubishi did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
General Motors and Daimler said they transmit data in compliance with industry regulations and get consent from car buyers on how their vehicle data is collected and used.
Tesla declined to answer specific questions and instead pointed to a privacy policy buyers sign at the time of purchase, which stipulates that vehicle data can be shared "with other third parties when required by law," though there was no specific mention of the government monitoring centres in the Chinese version of the policy.

AP

Rare earth mineral discovery set to make Australia a major player in electric vehicle supply chain

ABC Rural

By Tom Major

Updated about 3 hours ago

First posted about 10 hours ago

Supplies of a rare metal critical to building electric cars, smartphones and modern wind turbines will be boosted, after researchers identified a way to find new reserves of the mineral.
James Cook University (JCU) scientists from Townsville have uncovered the geological origins of dysprosium, a valuable rare earth mineral currently being mined in remote Western Australia.
Associate Professor at JCU's Economic Geology Research Centre Carl Spandler said the metal would be critical to future improvements in the growth industries.
"Adding a little bit of dysprosium to the magnet allows the magnetism to be retained, even at very high temperatures."
The current market price for dysprosium is $US235 a kilogram, having reached an all-time high of $US2,262 a kilogram in 2011.

Core samples tested

The research, which was published in September, analysed drilling samples came from the Northern Minerals' Browns Range project, a mining lease covering some 3,500 square kilometres of the Tanami Desert east of Halls Creek and across the Northern Territory border.
Dated to 1.65 billion years ago, analysis of the rock has provided clues about geological sites likely to contain further deposits of the metal, often associated with uranium ore.
PhD student Teimoor Nazari-Dehkordi said the find would diversify known deposits of the important metal, currently controlled by China, which produces 98 per cent of the world's supply.
"Now we are at a position where we can say these are really new deposits, no-one expected before," he said.

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"We've shown that a large proportion of northern Australia has potential to contain these minerals."
Most global rare earth mineral production occurs in clay soils related to ancient magma flows, but Mr Nazari-Dehkordi said the ores at Browns Range formed in a completely different way.
"We believe that these deposits are not related to any magmatic activities in the local area," he said.

"It's good to know that Australia has the potential to soon become a major producer."
Earth scientist with Queensland University of Technology Patrick Hayman said the research pointed to significant potential in areas formerly explored for uranium.
"These areas have already been explored for uranium, but the potential for rare earth element deposits was generally not considered at the time," Mr Hayman said.
"In volcanic-associated deposits the behaviour of rare earth elements is well understood, however, the ability of fluids to dissolve, transport and precipitate REE's is extremely poorly understood.
"This study provides strong evidence for the role of fluids in the formation of rare earth element deposits, including more specific details about the types of fluids needed, for example amount of salinity or pH."
Dr Hayman said the research could be important in providing future supply certainty to manufacturers of batteries and green technology of the future.
"Rare earth elements are considered strategic commodities and are an essential part of our modern society," he said.
Professor Spandler said knowledge of how the orebody formed meant future exploration for the mineral would be much more precise.

Alternative welcomed

The Chinese monopoly over supply of dysprosium has led to worries from global industries reliant on the metal in the past, with prices fluctuating to date.
In 2015 China was forced to abandon export quotas to control global prices for rare earth minerals after a World Trade Organisation ruling.
"As we see things like electric cars becoming much more common and the push towards green energy, with things like wind turbines, the amount of dysprosium we're going to need is going to go up."

At the same time, restrictions on the environmentally damaging exploitation of known deposits could see supplies reduce, affecting global markets.
"They essentially strip-mine the surface — it's caused the loss of a lot of agricultural land, as well as environmental damage," Professor Spandler said.
"The Chinese have actually clamped down on that, which is contributing to the supply risk."

Exploration ramps up

Northern Minerals managing director George Bauk said the finding of the JCU team had already led to the discovery of further deposits.
"We've had a great find this year; it was associated with the setting that was discovered as part of that [JCU] research," he said.
Currently 50 tonnes per annum are produced by the pilot mine at Browns Range, which will double in the next two years with new ore-sorting technology to be installed.

"Don't underestimate the size of the Chinese market when it comes to electric vehicles, you've got the South-East Asian markets, German market, and also the US market."
Mr Bauk said that, in the past, rare earth minerals were discovered by accident while prospecting for other products, but the new research was opening doors for miners.
"It's only recent times when you're starting to get these pieces of research work to look at modelling of how you try to discover and better target rare earths."

Dysprosium, an element for the future, the focus of $56 million WA rare earths mine project

Students strike for climate change protests, defying calls to stay in school

Extract from ABC News

Qld bushfires
- See all current bushfire warnings from Fire and Emergency Services.

Video: Students walk out of school to rally for action on climate change (Photo - ABC News: Andie Noonan) (ABC News)

Thousands of Australian students have defied calls by the Prime Minister to stay in school and instead marched on the nation's capital cities, and some regional centres, demanding an end to political inertia on climate change.

Protests were held in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, Coffs Harbour, Bendigo and other cities, as students banded together to pressure the Morrison Government in the lead-up to a federal election.
"The politicians aren't listening to us when we try to ask nicely for what we want and for what we need," said Castlemaine student Harriet O'Shea Carre.

"So now we have to go to extreme lengths and miss out on school."

It follows similar protests in Canberra and Hobart earlier this week, which have spurred on the junior activists.

A school girl hold a sign which reads: I've seen smarter cabinets at Ikea".

Photo: Students in Sydney used wordplay to make their point. (ABC Radio Sydney: Harriet Tatham)

A woman holds up a protest sign saying 'Beam you up Scotty'.

Photo: Climate change protesters in Melbourne took aim at Scott Morrison. (ABC News: Andie Noonan)

A sign used by students in Sydney protesting.

Photo: Students in Sydney used song lyrics to draw attention to climate change. (ABC Radio Sydney: Harriet Tatham)

Should kids be part of political protests?

The PM wants "less activism" in schools, but experts say it's all part of a "civics education".

The groundswell was inspired by 15-year-old Swedish student Greta Thunberg, who pledged to protest outside parliament in Stockholm until the country caught up on its commitments under the Paris Agreement.
News of her one-woman vigil caught the attention of Harriet O'Shea Carre and Milou Albrecht, both 14.
The pair, from the Castlemaine Steiner School, and a group of other climate-concerned teens travelled to the nearby regional city of Bendigo, about 90 minutes from Melbourne, to hold their own protest outside the office of Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie.
That in turn sparked today's protests across the nation.
"We have to sacrifice our education, which is something we really value, so we're showing them that at the moment this is even more important than our education," Harriet O'Shea Carre said.

Students stand holding signs at the front of a large rally calling for action on climate change.

Photo: Young Queenslanders gathered at Parliament House in Brisbane. (ABC News: Lucy Murray)

A large group of students holds up colourful signs.

Photo: Students in Melbourne said they had been forced to protest to be taken seriously. (ABC News: Andie Noonan)

A mob of students are hold placards on the steps on Melbourne's Parliament House.

Photo: Students in Melbourne gathered on the steps of Parliament House. (ABC News: Andie Noonan)

"We have tried so many other ways, we've tried just asking, we've tried telling them, and so we really just need to show them now so we're just going to keep pushing and keep trying because we love the natural world."
But the movement has not impressed Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who made it clear on Monday how he felt about students taking time off to protest.
"We don't support the idea of kids not going to school to participate in things that can be dealt with outside of school," he said.
"We don't support our schools being turned into parliaments. What we want is more learning in schools and less activism in schools."

A hand holding up a sign saying: "Clean up our planet, it's not Uranus."

Photo: Puns were used by many students trying to make a point at the Melbourne protest. (ABC News: Andie Noonan)

Photo: Today's protests in Australia's biggest cities follow similar events in Canberra and Hobart. (ABC News: Andie Noonan)

'If you were doing your job properly, we wouldn't be here'

In Adelaide, about 300 students rallied at South Australia's Parliament House, forcing police to block off a lane of traffic on North Terrace as another 200 onlookers spilled onto the road.
Organiser Deanna Athanosos, who is in year 10, said Mr Morrison's rhetoric towards the strike made her laugh.
"If you were doing your job properly, we wouldn't be here," she said.

Photo: Zel Whiting was among hundreds of South Australian students protesting today. (ABC Radio Adelaide: Malcolm Sutton)

A student climate inaction protester with his fish model

Photo: Students in Adelaide were furious about the Prime Minister's rhetoric on striking. (ABC Radio Adelaide: Malcolm Sutton)

Year eight student Zel Whiting also took aim at the Prime Minister.
He said he was increasingly frustrated with the Government and its "lack of awareness or activity on climate change and its dangers".
"Mr Morrison says schools are not parliament," he said.

"Mr Morrison, take a seat. You are about to be schooled.

"If everybody can contribute minor things that help the environment, such as using less plastics and not leaving your lights on — very small things — if everybody in Australia did that, we could really make a difference," he said.

Charlie holds up a sign saying: "Climate change is worse than homework".

Photo: Charlie, who's in grade 3 and from Sydney, was at today's climate protest in Adelaide. (ABC Radio Adelaide: Malcolm Sutton)

Dozens of students holding colourful signs gather on the steps of the South Australian Parliament.

Photo: Hundreds of South Australian students used Parliament House in Adelaide as the site of their protest. (ABC Radio Adelaide: Malcolm Sutton)

Michael Cohen's guilty plea and Donald Trump's good reasons to be antsy

Extract from ABC News

Analysis

By Washington bureau chief Zoe Daniel and Emily Olson

Updated 36 minutes ago

Photo: Donald Trump with Michael Cohen at a presidential campaign stop in September 2016. (Reuters: Jonathan Ernst)

It was "a very good time to have a meeting" with Vladimir Putin.

Until it wasn't.

US President Donald Trump's declaration that he "probably" would meet with the Russian President, as he headed off to the G20, was followed just minutes later with the above tweets cancelling the encounter due to events in Ukraine.
Yeah, right.
The web of lies spun by Mr Trump's associates over Russia is tightening, and with it the net cast by special counsel Robert Mueller who's looking at possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia in 2016.
Mr Trump has been expecting it. He's been antsy ever since the midterms.

He's got a few reasons to be.
For one, we know that Mr Trump's business dealings with Moscow continued well into the presidential campaign.
His former lawyer and Mr Fixit, Michael Cohen, has now totally rolled over.
In a surprise New York court hearing, he entered a guilty plea for lying to congress about negotiations to build a Trump Tower in Moscow.
According to court documents, Cohen told congressional investigators that plans for the so-called "Moscow Project" were shelved in January 2016. He wanted to give the impression that Mr Trump was clear of the the project before the all-important Iowa Caucus on February 1.
But he wasn't. Cohen has now admitted the project discussions continued as late as June 2016.
Also, Cohen had told Congress that he never received a response to an email request to speak with a top aide of Mr Putin when the project stalled in January 2016, and thus the Moscow Project was terminated.
Another lie.

A turning point for the Trump Presidency?

Two of Trump's inner circle are now convicted felons and the hounds are getting closer to the gates, writes Sandeep Gopalan.

The new filing reveals that the Russians did respond. Cohen had a 20-minute phone conversation with an assistant to senior aide Dmitry Pskov. Cohen asked for help with financing and securing land.
In the court document, prosecutors emphasise how Cohen had talked with Mr Trump — referred to as "individual 1" — about the project, and airs discussions about a potential Mr Trump visit to Moscow and meeting with Mr Putin.
Also mentioned in the document is "individual 2".
That's Felix Sater, the Soviet-born developer who was involved in the Moscow Project. Cohen continued to have contact with him well into summer 2016.
(Note: Sater features in this Four Corners piece from earlier this year.)
Sater invited Cohen to an economic conference in St Petersburg, promising that he would meet Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, and maybe even Mr Putin himself.
The court document reveals Cohen also told Sater he would consider a trip to Russia before the Republican National Convention.
Cohen's consideration of that trip ended on the same day the DNC email story broke (remember, Russian hackers — more to the point, alleged Russian intelligence — were responsible for that).

Why would Cohen lie about all this?

That's one point he's clear on.

"I made these misstatements to be consistent with Individual 1's political messaging and out of loyalty to Individual 1," Mr Cohen's filing states.

So, he's saying he lied to protect Mr Trump's political prospects, and to make it appear he was clear of any Russian connections before he was declared the nominee.
All of this is a big deal for several reasons, but one that's slightly outside the obvious is that it sheds some light on the special counsel's strategy.
You'll recall that Mr Trump recently got rid of Attorney-General Jeff Sessions, largely due to frustration that he hadn't reined in the Russia probe, and replaced him with now Acting Attorney-General Matt Whitaker, an anti-Mueller Trump supporter.
When the special counsel does complete his report, it will be up to Mr Whitaker to decide whether to release it, or bury it.

Is Donald Trump above the law?

The Trump administration has the potential to provide the world's oldest constitution with its biggest test in decades.

However, Mr Mueller can drip out a fair bit of detail to the public via court filings without the Attorney-General's approval.
You follow me?
Clever.
Anyway, the next obvious thing will be whether Mr Trump gets caught out in his own lies after the admissions of his (former) buddies.
Today he described Cohen as "weak" and "not very smart". When asked why he'd hired him in the first place, he said that Cohen did him a favour once, "a long time ago".
According to the Washington Post, Cohen used to call himself Mr Trump's pit bull, and once said he'd "take a bullet" for his boss.
When Mr Trump was asked specifically about his financial interests in Russia while on the campaign trail in July 2016, his answer was straightforward.
"I will tell you right now, zero, I have nothing to do with Russia, yes?"
In case anyone had doubts, he also tweeted about it:

That may have been true, but it appears he was strongly thinking about it.
Speaking to reporters as he departed for the G20, the President hosed down the significance of the negotiations, as did his lawyers later.
"That was a project that wasn't done for a lot of reasons. Number one is I was focused on running for president," he said.
"This deal was a very public deal. Everybody knows about this deal. I wasn't trying to hide anything, OK?"
"Now, here's the thing, even if he was right, it doesn't matter, because I was allowed to do whatever I wanted during the campaign. There was a good chance that I wouldn't have won, in which case I would have gotten back into the business, and why should I lose lots of opportunities?"
So it was about MONEY.
According to the new plea agreement and federal sentencing guidelines, Cohen faces a maximum prison sentence of six months. He could get off with no time.
If you ask the Democrats, there is more to the story than the "lighter sentence" theory.
Here's high-ranking Senate Intelligence Committee member Mark Warner:

"You've got all these closest associates of the President, one after another, pleading guilty, often pleading guilty about their ties to Russia and Russians, and what are they covering up for?"

Now, there's some timing to consider here.

Yes, Mr Trump confirmed this week that he's delivered written answers to several questions from Mr Mueller.
CNN got a break on the key points, and chief among them is that his old associate Roger Stone did not tell him about the WikiLeaks plot to release those hacked emails (allegedly sourced by pesky Russian intelligence) from the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton's campaign chief during the 2016 election.
Mr Mueller's team has been sniffing around Republican political operative Stone for a while, keen to know whether he knew in advance that the document dump was coming.
CNN also reports that Mr Trump did not know about the 2016 Trump Tower meeting between Donald Trump Jr and the Russian lawyer who promised dirt on Mrs Clinton (which is relevant to all of the above).
He's said this before, of course.
However, the key difference is that he's finally committed those denials to a very official legal document, meaning he'd be subject to prosecution if he answered untruthfully.
Yes, that's called perjury, and the President and his legal team have been acutely aware of what they have described as "perjury traps" in Mr Mueller's questions. The President suggested that if his recollection of the weather was incorrect, for example, he could be caught out for lying.
What did he say in response to questions about the Moscow Project, we wonder?
Anyway, note that CNN's report is based on two anonymous sources, one of whom disclosed the information "without providing any direct quotes".
So there's that.
Speaking of lies, though, and more to the point, liars:

Remember Paul Manafort?

Donald Trump gives a thumbs up alongside his campaign manager Paul Manafort

Photo: Donald Trump with Paul Manafort at the Republican National Convention in July 2016. (Reuters: Rick Wilking)

Uh huh, remember, Mr Trump's former campaign chairman signed a plea agreement with the special counsel over allegations he may have known about Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.
Now, the special counsel says he not only lied, he also told Mr Trump's legal team about the nature of Mueller's questions. Oh, and there's also now reporting that suggests he met with WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange during the campaign.
Yep, seriously.
However:

A million dollars, huh? Maybe all bets are off now.
Anyway, on Monday, Mr Mueller's office said Manafort violated his plea agreement by lying about "a variety of subject matters".
Manafort's defence lawyers disagreed, saying he provided truthful information. But under the terms of the agreement, he can't take back his guilty plea.
So his sentencing will happen sooner rather than later, leaving us all to ponder the big question: Will Mr Trump pardon Manafort?

Some see a 'yes' in the fact that Manafort informed the President's legal team about the nature and substance of his discussions with Mr Mueller, which at a minimum is a little shifty and at most is illegal.

One thing's for certain, all eyes will be on the detailed sentencing brief that Mr Mueller's team plans to lodge in relation to Manafort.
After the Cohen revelations, it's another way for the special counsel to reveal details about the investigation without having to rely on a Trump-appointed attorney-general to release it.
Watch this space.

Friday 30 November 2018

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