Extract from ABC News
An injured man with his dog takes cover in a shelter after a Russian strike on a Kyiv neighbourhood. (AP: Evgeniy Maloletka)
In short:
Russia is increasingly escalating attacks on Kyiv, unleashing some of its largest attacks on the Ukrainian capital since the start of the four-year war.
Moscow fired its hypersonic Oreshnik missile at the city and is now warning foreigners to leave.
What's next?
Analysts say it appears Russian President Vladimir Putin's "ego is bruised" and he is retaliating for Ukraine's long-range strikes on Moscow.
When the familiar sound of air raid sirens blares throughout the night skies, Kyiv residents race to metro stations for safety.
The underground tunnels act as citywide bomb shelters when Russia unleashes hours-long drone and missile bombardments.
But over the weekend they were no match for one of the largest attacks on the capital since the start of the four-year war.
"There were three loud explosions, and after the fourth one, the ceilings in the metro started crumbling," 21-year-old Kyiv resident Sofia Melnychenko told AFP.
"There was complete chaos. Children started screaming. People were panicking."
Hundreds of people take cover inside a metro station in an attempt to stay safe during the missile strike. (Reuters: Alina Smutko)
The massive assault included the use of Russia's powerful Oreshnik hypersonic missile.
It was only the third time the nuclear-capable ballistic missile had been fired during the conflict, prompting condemnation from European leaders who labelled it "reckless".
The Oreshnik missile was used without a nuclear warhead, but Moscow has claimed several of the missiles used in a conventional strike could be "comparable in strength to a nuclear strike".
A trade centre burns after a Russian strike on Kyiv on May 24. (AP: Evgeniy Maloletka)
The escalation in aerial warfare comes amid Ukraine's increasing long-range attacks on Russian infrastructure and industrial assets.
Ukrainian forces have also been clawing back territory in recent weeks, according to assessments by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank.
Instead of backing down, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been increasing bombardments on Ukrainian cities and warning foreigners to leave Kyiv, with threats that more "systematic strikes" were to come.
Russia experts at the Atlantic Council have noted Moscow was "clearly" in a weakened condition but "a diminished Vladimir Putin could be more dangerous than ever".
What is the Oreshnik?
Black-and-white surveillance camera footage from the first use of the Oreshnik missile on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro in late 2024 was brief but chilling.
Six huge fireballs pierced the darkness and slammed into the ground at astonishing speed.
Residents also reported hearing a "hellish noise" and bright bursts of light during the strike.
The Oreshnik is an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that flies through the stratosphere before travelling on a sharp trajectory down to earth.
It is believed to be capable of reaching targets between 3,000 and 5,500 kilometres away.
The missile was named after the Russian word for "hazel tree" due to its appearance when it drops multiple warheads in streaks of light.
The Oreshnik moves faster than most modern missiles. Russia claims it reaches speeds of up to Mach 10, about 10 times the speed of sound, and is impossible to intercept.
In addition to its high speeds the missile can carry multiple warheads capable of simultaneously striking different targets.
Analysts say combining these features makes the weapon particularly difficult to defend against, even with a sophisticated Western system such as the Patriot Missile Defence System.
Russia accused of 'scare tactics'
Both Ukraine and Russia confirmed the use of the Oreshnik over the weekend, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said struck in the city of Bila Tserkva in the Kyiv region.
Michael Bociurkiw, global affairs analyst and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Mr Putin claimed the Oreshnik could "pulverise villages".
"But interestingly the hits … didn't seem to cause that much damage," he told ABC's Radio National Breakfast.
Residential buildings in Kyiv are frequently hit in Russian drone and missile barrages. (Reuters: Alina Smutko)
The Oreshnik is a nuclear-capable weapon, but in past instances it has been used with non-explosive "dummy warheads", according to Ukrainian sources.
The ISW analysed footage from the recent attack, saying it appeared to show six sub-munition clusters "with each cluster carrying six kinetic rods".
"Russian forces may have conducted the Oreshnik strike to test and refine their nuclear weapons delivery systems, with one source reporting that the Oreshnik used kinetic energy projectiles in place of a conventional explosive payload," ISW reported.
Cristian Vlas, a researcher with Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, a US-based independent conflict monitor, said the attack was another example of Moscow "intensifying psychological pressure".
"The reported Oreshnik hypersonic missile strike on Bila Tserkva from the Kyiv region is significant in terms of its posturing value, not the extent of the damage it inflicted," he said.
The leaders of Britain and Germany condemned the use of the Oreshnik, describing it as an "escalation".
Kaja Kallas, the European Union's top diplomat, accused Moscow of resorting to "a political scare-tactic and reckless nuclear brinkmanship".
Putin vowed retaliation
Russia has been ramping up its attacks on the Ukrainian capital since a three-day ceasefire expired on May 11.
The Ukrainian air force said the weekend raid involved 600 drones and 90 missiles, of which 549 drones and 55 missiles were intercepted.
Damage was recorded in 50 locations across Kyiv including residential buildings, shopping centres and schools, Ukraine's emergency service said in a Telegram post.
Two people were killed in Kyiv, two more in the surrounding area, and at least 100 people were wounded in the attack.
Russia said the attack was in retaliation for a drone strike on a college dormitory in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine, which killed at least 21 people.
Ukraine denied targeting civilians, saying it had hit a Russian drone unit stationed in the area.
"We have no way of being able to prove that Ukraine struck that dormitory," Mr Bociurkiw said.
But Mr Putin's "ego has been bruised", he added.
"He's trying to prove to his own people that Russia is strong, Russia can retaliate,"he said.
Vladimir Putin has accused Ukraine of targeting civilians. (Reuters via Sputnik: Gavriil Grigorov)
In recent months, Ukraine has been showcasing its new domestically developed long-range arsenal, increasingly striking Russian military production sites and energy infrastructure more than a thousand kilometres from the Ukrainian border.
"The Ukrainians now have a series of different drone types that can go large distances, as well as their own indigenously made cruise missile called the Flamingo that can reach deep into Russian territory," said Matthew Sussex, Russia expert from the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.
Residents of Krasnogorsk, in the Moscow region, survey damage caused by a Ukrainian drone. (Reuters)
Last month Ukraine also managed to gain back more land than Russia seized.
It was the first time Moscow suffered a net loss of territory since August 2024, according to ISW analysts.
The researchers observed evidence that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometres during the month.
"It does look like advantage Ukraine at the moment, which means they've weathered the winter and now summer is time for offensives," Professor Sussex told the ABC.
He also noted that Russia was struggling with troop losses, saying "one in 25 Russians has been killed or wounded by this war".
Moscow urges foreigners to leave Kyiv
Mr Bociurkiw said it appeared Ukraine was "doing a pretty good job" at trying to push Russia to the negotiating table before the next winter.
But he was concerned about Russia's ongoing assaults on civilian areas.
"Ukrainians are strong, resilient, but are breaking inside, and I do worry that," he said.
"When I see people up so close, talking to them, their ability to cope is really getting to the limit."
US mediation has failed to broker an end to the war. Each side accuses the other of seeking to escalate the conflict.
Russia said it planned to launch more strikes on Kyiv, including on its "decision-making centres", and repeated a call for foreign citizens and diplomats to leave the city.
Kyiv has been bearing the brunt of Russia's escalating bombardments on Ukrainian cities. (Reuters: Thomas Peter)
Western diplomatic missions in the city have rebuffed the warning.
A spokesperson for France's foreign ministry said they were "used to Putin's threats" and evacuating was "out of the question".
The European Union's ambassador in Kyiv said on Facebook: "We are not going anywhere."
Ukraine described Russia's threats as "rhetoric".
"We are now telling our partners that they should not give in to all this Russian blackmail," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga said.
ABC/Wires
No comments:
Post a Comment