Extract from ABC News
Iranian missiles are displayed at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force Museum in Tehran. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters)
Hello, ABC Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran here in Jerusalem.
It’s now 72 days since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, and the regime in Tehran fired back. This is our weekly update on what's happening in the Middle East war.
Here's what you should know now:
- Iranian state media is reporting the regime has delivered its response to the latest peace proposal to mediator Pakistan. The IRNA agency said that "based on the proposed plan, at this stage, the negotiations will focus on ending the war in the region". The language indicates there is still no firm deal to stop the conflict, although perhaps some movement towards further negotiations on more contentious issues, such as Iran's nuclear program. See below for how Donald Trump has responded.
- Qatar's Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who holds the dual roles of prime minister and foreign minister of the Gulf state, has told his Iranian counterpart that trying to use the Strait of Hormuz as a "pressure tool" in negotiations with the United States will only make the situation in the region even worse. It's not clear exactly when Mr Al Thani spoke to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi by phone, but he's also met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Miami, where the pair reportedly discussed US support for Qatar's defences. Iranian state media is also reporting Iran's Supreme Leader has met with the country's military chief.
- Despite there technically being a ceasefire in place for the past month, there have been several attacks on the Gulf states and ships in recent days. The United Arab Emirates said it had intercepted two Iranian drones, while the Kuwaiti defence ministry said it had shot down drones launched from Iraq. A gas tanker from Qatar reportedly made it through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, en route to Pakistan, along with a Panama-flagged ship from Saudi Arabia bound for Brazil. Meanwhile, a cargo ship travelling in Qatar's waters from Abu Dhabi was hit by a drone.
- Another round of talks between Israel and Lebanon will be held in Washington later this week, as strikes in Lebanon continue. Hezbollah is not a party to the negotiations and has criticised them going ahead. The Israeli military says it continues to target Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and beyond, but Lebanese health authorities report almost daily civilian deaths as a result of strikes — including one on Saturday in the town of Saksakiyeh, where a child was among a dozen killed. Hezbollah has continued to fire back, launching drones and rockets at soldiers in southern Lebanon and northern Israel. Three Israeli soldiers were injured. The situation is fuelling criticism that the ceasefire in Lebanon, announced by the United States, is nothing more than a truce in name only.
- Two activists have been deported from Israel, a week and a half after they were detained by the Israeli military on board ships in international waters off the coast of Greece. Saif Abu Keshek and Thiago Avila were taken to Israel when ships travelling as part of the Global Sumud Flotilla, trying to break Israel's almost two-decade-long maritime blockade of Gaza, were intercepted. Both men have denied Israeli allegations against them, namely that Abu Keshek was affiliated with a terrorist organisation and Avila was involved in illegal activity. Fifty-seven boats in the flotilla have sailed on to Türkiye, with 10 Australians on board.
Here's what to watch in the days ahead:
There is a gnawing "Groundhog Day" vibe creeping in at the moment.
A proposal to end the war is drafted. It's handed to the mediators. They pass it on to the other side. The waiting begins. The reply is provided. And little movement ensues.
Rinse, repeat, etc.
One of the reasons it's so tense at the moment is because no-one knows if widespread fighting is on the horizon. US President Donald Trump's ceasefire extension a fortnight ago was open-ended, rather than setting a new deadline for Iran to state its position. That shows how precarious the whole scenario is, even if most analysts believe neither the US nor Iran are keen on returning to all-out war, however much Washington and Tehran beat their chests about their preparedness and willingness to attack the other if the whole process falls apart.
Strikes in the Gulf over the past few days have served to fuel that anxiety, although the muted response so far may also have proven the point about a reluctance to formally end the ceasefire.
Most of Mr Trump's social media posts in recent days had focused on the LIV Golf at his Trump National Golf Course in Virginia, which he also attended as the proprietor of the venue and the nation's Golfer-in-Chief, as well as memes of military action against Iran — including one of him on the deck of an American warship attacking the Iranian navy, wearing a bulletproof vest replete with the Stars and Stripes.
But after the Iranian response, he took to Truth Social to voice his anger. "Iran has been playing games with the United States, and the rest of the World, for 47 years (DELAY, DELAY, DELAY!)" the president posted.
He went on to criticise his predecessors, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, repeating similar rhetoric about what he describes as their failures to combat Iran. "They will be laughing no longer!" Mr Trump threatened.
"I have just read the response from Iran's so-called 'representatives'," he posted later. "I don't like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!"
He has insisted repeatedly that Iran is desperate for a deal and has continued to flag that an agreement was imminent. Yet a deal has not appeared, and it seems he's frustrated Tehran isn't rolling over. And, no doubt, he'd like something to say about progress towards an agreement when he travels to China to meet President Xi Jinping.
And here's what I'll be keeping an eye on:
There was an interesting report over the weekend in The Wall Street Journal revealing that Israel had established a secret forward base in a remote desert area of western Iraq during its strikes on Iran.
The report stated that Iraqi forces were attacked when they tried to approach, after locals raised the alarm about military activity in the area.
Further reports have emerged through the Saudi network Al Arabiya that the United States is now warning Iraqi forces not to approach the site.
Watch this space.
Thanks for joining me. I'll see you at the same time next week.
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