World order could be 'rebuilt out of Europe', Carney says.

 Extract from ABC News

By Thomas Morgan, with wires

• Topic:World Politics

5 hours ago

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says like-minded nations must deal with the world "as it is". (AP: Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)

In short:

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says the world does not need to submit to a "more transactional and insular world" at a major European leadership summit.

The comments come amid concerns about the US's commitment to NATO and the rules-based world order.

The European Political Community meeting came just days after Donald Trump pulled 5,000 troops out of Germany and slapped a 25 per cent tariff on cars from the EU. 

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said the international order could be "rebuilt out of Europe" as he joined other world leaders at a major summit on the future of the continent.

Mr Carney is the first non-European leader to have been invited to a meeting of the European Political Community (EPC), held in Armenia's Yerevan, amid ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and as questions hang over US President Donald Trump's commitment to NATO. 

Iran war live updates: For the latest news on the Middle East crisis, read our blog.

Others in attendance included British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The gathering came just days after the US pulled 5,000 troops out of Germany and slapped a 25 per cent tariff on cars from the EU, which followed Mr Trump hitting out at German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for criticising the US war with Iran.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has criticised the US's military actions in the Middle East, prompting a backlash from Donald Trump. (Reuters: Jonathan Ernst)

Echoing comments he made at the Davos summit earlier this year, Mr Carney said it was important for like-minded nations to step up to defend the "rules-based order".

"The world is undergoing a rupture across several dimensions, in technology, in energy, in commerce and in geopolitics," he told the EPC summit.

"We have to actively take on the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.

"We don't think we're destined to submit to a more transactional and insular world."

Describing Canada as the "most European of non-European countries", he said Canada would strive to deepen its relationship with Europe on issues such as the Ukraine war.

"We're here because of the moral and security imperatives of our cooperation in the Caucasus, in the Baltics, in Ukraine, across Europe, and also because of the immense potential for our partnerships to build a better, more prosperous, sustainable and just world for our citizens," he said.

"It is my strong personal view that the international order will be rebuilt, but it will be rebuilt out of Europe."

UK, EU leaders urge solidarity

The comments come at a time when the relationship between Europe and the US is under strain, with Mr Trump increasingly critical of what he perceives as a lack of NATO support for American military operations in the Middle East.

NATO chief Mark Rutte admitted at the forum that there had "been some disappointment on the US side" over Europe's reluctance to get behind the Iran war.

But Europeans had "heard the message", were now providing logistical support to US operations and pre-positioning "key assets close to theatre, for the next phase", Mr Rutte told reporters.  

A biannual political forum, the EPC was established at the initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss politics, security, energy, infrastructure, investment, and migration. It was set up in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 

At the summit, Sir Keir told European partners there is "more tension" in some of their international alliances than there should be, and it is "very important that we therefore face up to this".

"There needs to be a stronger European element in NATO, I have no doubt, about that."

Ms von der Leyen, who has previously talked up European efforts to bolster defence in the face of Mr Trump's hardening rhetoric on NATO, told the meeting the EU needed "more independence" in its security.

"We have to step up our military capabilities to be able to defend and protect ourselves," she said.

Ukraine on the agenda

With Ukraine now in its fifth year of fighting Russian forces, leaders at the summit also discussed how to support Kyiv amid fears of less support flowing from Washington.

"This summer will be a moment when Putin decides what to do next, expand the war or move to diplomacy, and we must push him toward diplomacy," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the gathering.

"We are in contact with the United States, and we understand their views and positions. But it would be good to develop one common European voice."

He also reignited discussion of Ukraine potentially joining the EU, stating he hoped to begin accession negotiations in the next two months.

"Technically, Ukraine is fully ready," he told reporters.

ABC/wires

Australian activist Zack Schofield says crew of Gaza-bound aid flotilla was beaten by Israeli sailors.

Extract from ABC News

By ABC correspondent Bridget Rollason in Jerusalem and Jenny Lavelle

• Topic:War

Sunday 3 May

Zack Schofield has told ABC News some of his crew members were beaten and shot point-blank with rubber bullets. (ABC News)

In short:

Zack Schofield was one of six Australians detained this past week by the Israeli navy after taking part in the Global Sumud Flotilla, an attempt to break Israel's blockade of Gaza by delivering humanitarian aid to the territory.

He alleges he and his crewmates endured a violent and distressing ordeal during their time in Israeli custody, and says he witnessed at least 10 of his fellow crew members being heavily beaten.

What's next?

Mr Schofield is now on the Greek island of Crete, where he was taken to hospital after being released by the IDF, but says he intends to continue to sail on to Gaza as part of the flotilla.

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An Australian activist detained by Israeli officials after joining a flotilla attempting to deliver aid to Gaza has described what he says was a violent and distressing ordeal at sea that left many of his crewmates injured.

Zack Schofield was one of three Australians taken to hospital on Friday after being released by Israeli authorities on the Greek island of Crete, having spent up to the previous 40 hours detained on board an Israeli ship.

"All of my crew were placed in stress positions and forced to walk with our heads down; we were grabbed by our hair and moved around the ship," Mr Schofield told the ABC on Saturday night.

"We were very forcefully searched, multiple times, and had all of our possessions stolen [or] thrown in the ocean — and our boat was sunk, including all of our possessions on board."

Mr Schofield said he was lucky compared with some of his fellow crew members, estimating at least 10 or 12 people suffered concussions or broken ribs, and that he saw some people shot by rubber bullets at point-blank range.

"I witnessed violence perpetrated against many of my friends," he said.

"A friend of mine from the American delegation was taken into a shipping container and beaten by three Israeli soldiers with the butts of their rifles and batons, and was kicked repeatedly in the testicles.

"I saw elderly men shot at point-blank range with rubber bullets. I saw a young woman, part of my crew, punched in the ribs about 10 or 11 times.

"I accompanied her to hospital when we landed in Crete. She is very injured."

Three Australians injured as Israel intercepts Gaza aid flotilla

More than 100 activists, including six Australians, on ships bound for Gaza were intercepted by Israeli forces and taken to the Greek island of Crete.

The ABC has not independently verified Mr Schofield's claims, and a spokesperson from Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied any of the flotilla's passengers had been mistreated.

"During the process of transferring the passengers to Greek forces, a number of passengers refused the transfer and began rioting violently," the spokesperson said.

"In order to address the violence and complete the transfer, a policing unit operating aboard IDF vessels was compelled to use force to move some of the passengers who were violently resisting.

"At no point were the passengers mistreated, and all use of force was in direct response to violence and physical resistance on the part of the rioters."

IDF 'flooded deck' to wake crew, activist says

Mr Schofield said while some of the crew had slept inside shipping containers on board the Israeli ship, he was forced to sleep outside.

"There wasn't room for everyone [in the shipping containers], so myself and others were made to sleep outside on rubber mats with no blankets or any protection from the elements," he said.

"The Israelis flooded the deck with sea water at least a couple of times on the ship every night, to wake us up and make sure our mats were wet."

Greek Coast Guard vessels took the crew members from an Israeli vessel. (Reuters: Stefanos Rapanis)

Israeli authorities accused the activists of engaging in a "PR stunt", labelling them "professional provocateurs" and claiming the Global Sumud Flotilla's mission was being led by Hamas.

"We are trying to get food and medicine to Gaza. We are not trying to seek attention, we are trying to provide material support," Mr Schofield told the ABC.

"I'm not sure how anyone could argue we are just doing this to gain attention.

"The fact Israel travelled over 1,000 kilometres through international waters west of Crete to attack us and detain us … is unfathomable."

Mr Schofield is still in Crete, but says he intends to continue to sail on to Gaza as part of the flotilla.

How Australia’s most iconic inland fish species has bounced back.

Extract from ABC News

• By Gavin McGrath

• Topic:Fish

23 hours ago

Murray cod (Maccullochella peelii) is the apex predator of the Murray-Darling Basin river system. (Flickr: Murray Cod/Guo Chai Lim/CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

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At up to 1.8 metres in length and weighing more than 50 kilograms, the Murray cod is the apex predator of Australia's inland waterways.

An adult "pondi" (its Ngarrindjeri name) cruises the country's rivers and creeks — from the Campaspe in central Victoria to the Condamine in Queensland — undaunted by any native rival.

Even European carp make themselves itself scarce when a big cod is on the prowl.

Murray cod will feed on juvenile carp. (supplied: Victorian Fisheries Authority)

But during the 1970s they all but disappeared from much of their range across the Murray-Darling Basin.

Now the big fish of the basin is on the way back.

The decline

Murray cod (Maccullochella peelii) and related species such as trout cod (Maccullochella macquariensis), eastern freshwater cod (Maccullochella ikei) and Mary River cod (Maccullochella mariensis) once dominated the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin.

However, overfishing (especially commercial fishing from the late 19th century into the mid-20th century), the building of vast dams like Lake Hume which altered water flows, and habitat degradation resulted in a drastic decline.

Commercial fishing took its toll on Murray cod numbers up until the mid-20th century. (Supplied: Stuart Rowland)

"In the 1970s and 1980s, even into the 1990s, so many of our recreational fishers told us Murray cod were very hard to come by," Victorian Fisheries Authority (VFA) recreational fisheries manager Taylor Hunt said.

Murray cod is still classified as vulnerable according to the Australian Environment Protection Biodiversity Conservation Act, but the trend is positive.

Taylor Hunt with an Ovens River Murray cod.  (supplied: Victorian Fisheries Authority)

The recovery

An electrofishing survey of the Ovens River in Victoria found more than 110 Murray cod per kilometre, with flourishing populations in the Goulburn and Loddon rivers as well.

Meanwhile, the Lindsay River and Mullaroo Creek cod, devastated by blackwater fish kills in 2022, have recovered to pre-2021 levels.

Craig Eury and daughter Charlie with a large Murray cod they caught in Lake Eildon.  (supplied: Craig Eury)

Dr Hunt said the VFA's scientific research and angler feedback were telling him a similar story.

"We've seen an amazing resurgence in Murray cod numbers and now they are back and in good condition," he said.

"We see this in our scientific surveys, and we've just completed a big study of recreational fishers where we asked about their own experiences.

"People are telling us they see cod everywhere."

"They are seeing lots of big ones, lots of them within the legal limit, and lots of little ones coming through as well."

The VFA survey had more than 3,500 responses.

More than 90 per cent supported Murray cod conservation efforts, including catch-and-release and adopting ways to handle caught fish in a manner that improves their chances of survival once let go.

The legal catch limit for Murray cod in NSW and Victoria is 55cm to 75cm, with strict bag limits (one per person in Victorian rivers, and two in NSW and in specified Victorian lakes). Smaller and larger fish must be released.

Angler Kate Norman with a massive cod. Murray cod can grow to more than 1.8m.   (supplied: Kate Norman)

"In many rivers in Victoria, we have seen more than two-to-five-fold increases in the numbers of Murray cod since the 1990s," Dr Hunt said.

"This includes the Goulburn River, Ovens, Campaspe, Broken Creek, Broken River, and Gunbower Creek.

"It's a similar story in our lakes. In Lake Eildon, for example, there has been an 81 per cent increase in Murray cod numbers in just five years between 2014 and 2019."

Dr Hunt said the increases across Victoria were thanks to a combination of fish production and stocking, habitat restoration, fishing regulations and size limits, and improved recreational fishing practices, such as increased voluntary catch-and-release.

There was good news across many tributaries in New South Wales as well, including the Murrumbidgee River and Edward River.

Not all good news

The Darling River, however, represented an ecological disaster, according to retired research scientist with NSW Fisheries Stuart Rowland.

While there was a concerted effort to restore cod populations in other streams, the Darling has been neglected.

And according to Dr Rowland, known as The Codfather for his lifetime study of the species, where cod is absent, carp numbers explode.

Dr Stuart Rowland says native fish are the victims of river mismanagement. (Supplied: Stuart Rowland)

"The Darling River ecosystem, where the top predator has largely disappeared, it has damaged the whole food chain," Dr Rowland said.

"The aquatic fauna has so changed (due to carp), it has altered the aquatic flora drastically. That's why we have things like toxic blue-green algae blooms.

"All species are important in an ecosystem but perhaps the most important is the top predator. It shapes the entire ecosystem."

Stunning surveys

Electrofishing is a survey method used by researchers to physically count fish within a specific area. The data is then used to extrapolate a broader population.

It involves running up to 1,000 volts of direct current through the water which stuns any fish within a 5m radius without harming them. Researchers then catch and count each fish and, in the case of native species, release them back into the wild.

Electrofishing allows researchers to stun fish within a small area, count them, and return them unharmed to the water. (supplied: Victorian Fisheries Authority)

Recent electrofishing surveys across Victoria paint a positive picture for Murray cod but also illustrate the threat to other inland aquatic species.

The VFA estimates European carp populations to be 30 times higher than record levels before Victoria's 2022 floods.

A European carp. When cod disappears from a waterway, carp populations often explode at the expense of native flora and fauna.  (Supplied: UNSW)

"Murray cod is ahead of a lot of our native species because they grow so big. They can grow much bigger than carp," Dr Hunt said.

"For a lot of our other native fish the overabundance of carp is still pushing down their numbers.

"We'd love to see more control programs for carp like we see for rabbits, foxes and other pest species.

"All the evidence is there to show we can have these wins so we can also bring back trout, Macquarie perch and yellowbelly (golden perch), and more of our small-bodied native fish."

State of play

Murray cod populations vary across south-eastern Australian states, according to Dr Hunt and Dr Rowland.

Lake Eildon (Vic) — Australia's best big Murray cod fishery with trophy sized fish (over a metre long and up 30kg) being caught by anglers daily. Since 1990 the VFA has stocked Lake Eildon with more than 6.3 million Murray cod. Between 2014 and 2019 there was an 81 per cent increase in overall numbers.

Campaspe River (Vic)– Huge increases in Murray cod numbers, particularly since 2019. Stocking of 100,000 Murray cod per year, combined with habitat restoration are likely contributors.

Goulburn River (Vic) — One of Victoria's most popular rivers for Murray cod fishers with a flourishing population. An electrofishing survey saw 60 Murray cod caught and released. There is strong Murray cod breeding downstream of Goulburn Weir as well.

Loddon River (Vic) — Murray cod have gradually increased since 2014 thanks to stocking of up to 160,000 fish per year, combined with habitat restoration and improving river health.

Lindsay River-Mullaroo Creek (Vic) — Reputedly home of some of Australia's biggest Murray cod. Numbers have resurged since the 2022 blackwater event which devastated the population.

Ovens River (Vic) — Considered Australia's healthiest river for Murray cod. An electrofishing survey in the Ovens netted 185 Murray cod, ranging in size from 50mm to close to a metre. The Ovens also supports populations of other threatened native fish including trout cod and Macquarie perch.

Voluntary catch-and-release by anglers has contributed to the Murray cod's recovery. (Supplied: James Norney)

Murrumbidgee River (NSW) — Described as a very healthy population with high angler catch rates.

Darling River (NSW) — Once a stronghold for Murray cod when the fish was under threat elsewhere. Now a river of greatest concern, with a dramatic decline in Murray cod numbers.

Lower Murray River (SA) — There remains concern about the amount of Murray cod in South Australia because breeding has been very limited.

Iran briefing: Details on Iran's 14-point peace plan, a shift in Gulf power politics and eyes back on Gaza.

Extract from ABC News

By global affairs editor Laura Tingle in Jerusalem

• Topic:Unrest, Conflict and War

40 minutes ago

A billboard in Tehran depicting Donald Trump shows the anti-US sentiment in Iran.  (Reuters/WANA: Majid Asgaripour)

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Hi, I'm ABC Global affairs editor Laura Tingle and I'm in Jerusalem. This is our weekly update on what's been going on in the Middle East war and what to look for in the days ahead.

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Here's what you should know now:

• The jockeying and chest thumping in Tehran and Washington about who is going to blink first has continued for another week, most recently after Iran issued a new 14-point proposal for a peace deal, which it sent to Pakistan on Thursday. The proposal reportedly includes demands that the US lift the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, as well as sanctions on Iran, all hostilities including in Lebanon, and the withdrawal of all US forces in the region.
• You might notice there is no mention of the future of Iran's nuclear capabilities, nor any real shift in Iran's claims to be able to control the Strait of Hormuz. It is now almost a month since the current ceasefire came into force on April 8, with little sign of progress. The US and Iran have continued to attack, capture, and intercept each other's ships in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump told Israeli media overnight the Iranian proposal was "not acceptable to me".
• Both sides continue to insist that they are winning, with the US variously claiming the Iranian regime is splintering and that the economic sanctions it is imposing means the regime cannot even pay its soldiers. For its part, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and foreign ministry officials have told the US that it must choose between an "impossible military operation" or a "bad deal" (for the US), setting a 30-day deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. There have also been a number of reports that damage to US bases in the region is much more extensive than had previously been known, with suggestions some have been left almost inoperable.
• Relationships among Gulf countries are fracturing, with the United Arab Emirates announcing it will leave the OPEC oil cartel, in a move seen as being as much about geopolitics as oil. The UAE is increasingly aligning itself much more firmly and publicly with Israel and the US, with reports emerging that Israel supplied air defence systems to the Emiratis from the earliest days of the war, as the UAE faced the biggest Iranian bombardment of any country, including Israel. And there are now reports the Trump administration is seeking to fast-track $US8.6 billion ($11.9 billion) of arms sales to allies in the Middle East, including Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE, to assist them fend off further Iranian attacks.

Here's what to watch in the days ahead:

The terrible conditions in Gaza, as well as the creeping occupation of Israel into the Strip and continued killings, have taken a back seat in the news in recent months. But there are increasing reports that Israel is considering a renewed assault on Gaza amid few signs that Hamas is going to give up its weapons or its control over what remains of the Strip.

The Israeli cabinet was due to meet to discuss this overnight, Australian time. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instead had a smaller meeting with security officials.

A senior official in the Israeli military's general staff told Channel 15 that an additional round of fighting was "almost inevitable", citing Hamas's refusal to surrender its weapons and the alleged "failure" of the International Stabilization Force, a multinational body deployed under the recent truce framework to oversee security and manage the ceasefire's implementation.

Israel's Army Radio reported that on the ground, the military had steadily been enlarging the territory it controlled in the enclave. By gradually pushing the "Yellow Line" westwards, Israeli forces have expanded their territorial control to 59 per cent of the Strip.

Meanwhile, the situation in Lebanon has not been improving despite a ceasefire supposedly also being in place there, with 20 more civilians killed and 46 wounded by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Sunday, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, and reports of Hezbollah attacks in northern Israel.

Israel's actions in southern Lebanon, where it has been demolishing whole villages it links to Hezbollah across a wide swathe of the south, have been likened to its strategy in Gaza.

And here's what I'll be keeping an eye on:

You've all seen the images of increasingly blatant violence against Palestinians in the West Bank from, and around, settler communities. The pace of expansion of settlements has seemed to increase exponentially and now includes more than 700,000 Israelis.

What's less obvious in the pictures is the increasing economic, legal and administrative stranglehold being applied to Palestinian communities since October 7, 2023, but particularly at an escalating pace in the past couple of months, which also seeks to reduce the role and powers of the Palestinian Authority.

Analysts say it is these measures that show Israel is preparing to annex the West Bank, not just occupy it.

For example, since February, Israel has opened the land market to direct purchase by Israelis and "renewed" the land-registration process in what is known as Area C for the first time since 1967, when Israel captured the West Bank from Jordan in the Six-Day War.

Israel is also now expanding its control over water, environment, heritage and archaeology in other areas of the West Bank administered by the Palestinian Authority.

Palestinian communities in the West Bank find themselves locked behind gates in increasingly small areas, facing the economic difficulties that have come with not being allowed into Israel to work since the October 7 attacks.

Thanks for joining me. We'll be back with another briefing next Monday.

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Topic:World Politics

Deep fractures in the Gulf over Iran have implications for everyone, including Australia.

Extract from ABC News

Analysis

By Laura Tingle

• Topic:World Politics

1 hours ago

Anwar Gargash, the powerful diplomatic adviser to the UAE's president, said this week that tensions with Iran had reached a "watershed moment" for Gulf security. (Reuters: Hamad I Mohammed)

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Amid the renewed rumblings of a return to direct hostilities between the United States and Iran, and fervent attempts by analysts to make sense of what either countries' leadership is actually doing, you may have heard a sharp cracking sound this week.

That sound emanated from the Persian Gulf, where long-simmering tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates finally broke into the open with the declaration that the UAE would be leaving the oil cartel, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). 

If oil markets were operating normally, there would have been a lot more market reaction to this decision's direct impact on oil prices.

But in the absence of those conditions, the much broader geo-strategic significance of what the move represented was left for all to ponder.

The United Arab Emirates has announced that it will leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. (REUTERS: Dado Ruvic/ File)

UAE at odds with Gulf neighbours

The indications are that the UAE, OPEC's third largest producer, is also in conflict with most of its Gulf neighbours, and specifically with Saudi Arabia — which regards itself as the leader of the region — on strategy over Iran, as well more everyday issues such as economic development.

If anyone was in any doubt, Anwar Gargash, the powerful diplomatic adviser to the UAE's president, said this week that tensions with Iran had reached a "watershed moment" for Gulf security and urged a fundamental reassessment of longstanding policies towards Tehran.

"A defining station in the modern history of the Gulf" had been reached, he said. "This is not a passing crisis."

Gargash also delivered a blunt assessment of Gulf policy towards Tehran, saying efforts to contain tensions through diplomacy, trade and regional engagement had "failed miserably". 

"For years, each Gulf state pursued its own model of containment," he said, citing mediation initiatives, shared energy projects and economic ties. "None delivered lasting security."

The Gargash interventions were a significant escalation in the UAE's rhetoric from that seen earlier in the conflict, when it kept emphasising the injustice of being under attack by Iran when Gulf states had urged both Israel and the US to not attack Iran.

UAE Minister for International Cooperation Reem Al Hashimy dismissed any suggestion that the UAE might also harbour anger against the US and Israel for starting the conflict. (Reuters: Ciro De Luca)

For example, in mid-March, UAE Minister for International Cooperation Reem Al Hashimy said: "It's been pretty unprecedented, what's happened, and almost unhinged, I would say, to have Iran lash out at the very people who've been calling for de-escalation, who've been calling for this war to never actually even start, which has really taken us by surprise." 

Al Hashimy dismissed any suggestion that the UAE might also harbour anger against the US and Israel for starting the conflict.

"Independent of how this began, the retaliatory measures that Iran has taken to attack the Gulf states are really where the issue we have is," she told the ABC.

"I have to highlight here that Iran isn't simply attacking military bases that have not launched a single missile from them, because we've made it clear that our territory would not be used to launch an attack against Iran.

"They are actually targeting civilian infrastructure as well, whether it's an airport or it's oil tankers."

Asked if the attacks would make the UAE reconsider hosting US bases, Al Hashimy said: "Quite the contrary. Our relationship with the US is a long-standing strategic partnership.

"It's a partnership that doesn't falter in moments of crisis, but has been built on decades of trust and mutual respect.

"We've been long-standing partners of the US, long-standing partners of Australia as well. And this doesn't deter us, because we're also a resilient bunch, and we don't take to being bullied around, either."

But the diplomatic repercussions of this criticism have now crystallised in the Gargash remarks. 

'I expected such a weak position'

The failure of the approaches of Gulf states to Iran, Gargash said this week, required a comprehensive review of Gulf strategy, including defence coordination, diplomatic engagement and relations with major partners such as the United States.

"It is true that, logistically, the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries supported each other, but politically and militarily, I think their position was the ⁠weakest in history," Reuters reported Gargash telling a conference in the UAE on Monday.

He did not spare the two other major umbrella bodies that have in the past presented a mostly unified Gulf front to the rest of the world: the GCC and the Arab League.

"I expected such a weak position from the Arab League, and I am not surprised by it, but I have not expected it from the GCC, and I am surprised by it."

For its part, the Emirates would "scrutinise" its regional and international relations ⁠to "determine who can be relied upon", pairing that review with measures to strengthen the UAE's economic and financial position.

"Strategic autonomy remains the UAE's enduring choice," Gargash has said.

The UAE has decided to much more conspicuously side with the US — and perhaps more significantly — Israel, than any regional power has in the past.

This is despite the fact that the decision by the US and Israel to go to war against Iran resulted in the UAE facing the biggest onslaught of Iranian missiles and drones of any country in the region, including Israel.

It represents a major win for Israel's ambitions to be the new hegemonic power in the region, and an even more clouded picture of how the conflict between Iran, Israel and the US may be resolved.

And it shows the first profound cleavage in which a Gulf country has left open the possibility of taking Israel's side in a war — something the Gulf states have all been very reluctant to do, no matter how much of a threat they may have felt from Iran.

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The significance for Australia

The UAE's position has direct relevance to Australia. Gargash is just the latest senior UAE official to talk of how the current crisis was showing just who the tiny — but massively rich — state could rely on.

And we make the cut, not just because we provided a Wedgetail reconnaissance plane for "purely defensive purposes", but also because we have one of our largest international air bases in the Emirates.

Emirati political analyst Abdulkhaleq Abdulla tweeted through the week that the "40-day Iranian missile and drone assault was a defining moment for the UAE. It made one thing clear: who stood with us when it mattered".

"The shortlist: the USA, France, Britain, South Korea, Australia, Ukraine, Italy. Grateful to you all."

What standing with the UAE means is only now becoming clear.

The Financial Times has just reported that Israel deployed a compact drone-detection system called "Spectro" to the UAE during Iran's missile and drone attacks, as well as Iron Dome batteries and the Iron Beam laser defence system.

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These systems reportedly came with a significant number of Israeli "boots on the ground". 

The Wall Street Journal reported that this was also the first time the Iron Dome air defence system had been sent to another country, and that flight-tracking websites show military transports have shuttled between the Israeli air base of Nevatim and the UAE throughout the conflict since February 28.

The fact this is all coming to light right now does leave open the question of how Iran approaches the UAE from now on.

The Iranian state-owned Fars News Agency this week published three so-called "rules of the game", which warned Donald Trump of a possible ground invasion of Dubai and the UAE if American forces attempted a land assault on Iranian territory.

The UAE move also raises questions for the other Gulf states, which have tried to maintain an uncomfortable balancing act between not provoking Iran, cooperating with the US and Israel, and negotiating the fraught world of political Islam and Arab unity.

The shadow tussle between the UAE and Saudi has been going on for some time, with the two Gulf nations backing conflicting sides in the conflict in Yemen.

The talk in Washington and Iran for this week has been of stalemate. But as the week draws to a close the escalation has been starting again with reports of air sirens in Tehran, Trump being advised on military options in Washington, and even a report on Israeli television that Israel is preparing to announce the failure of Iran negotiations, with the US giving Israel immediate authorisation to strike Iran's energy facilities after the announcement.

Trump's earlier signalling that he will neither walk away from the war declaring a victory or escalating it, but will try to starve out the Iranians, all suggests there is no clear sign of how this war could end.

And the possibility of the UAE not just becoming an even bigger target for Iran, but possibly a direct combatant, if provoked, seems to only escalate the risks.

Laura Tingle is the ABC's Global Affairs Editor.