Extract from ABC News
Analysis
Türkiye's president, the Saudi crown prince and Pakistan's prime minister signed a joint defence agreement in Mecca. (Reuters: Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Turkish Presidential Press Office)
A NATO-like defence pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan has landed like a stone thrown into an already swirling Middle East pool.
And the ripples from this deal are spreading as analysts consider its profound implications.
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed last Friday in Mecca, is seen as a pivot point in the geopolitics of the region.
It is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression and says an armed attack against any of the three would be regarded as an attack on all, just like Article 5 of the NATO agreement.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan later confirmed the agreement is technically the same as NATO's.
But just what this commitment means in practice in the volatile region is unclear.
In the last 12 months, it has appeared at times as if Israel might emerge as the new hegemonic power in the Middle East.
The unexpected survival of Iran's sphere of influence has also kept open the question of its eventual dominance.
Now a new grouping challenges both of those ideas.
Three powers join forces
Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly said in a social media post that the accord "does not represent an effort to establish a military axis or a sectarian bloc".
"Nor is it linked to any nuclear ambitions or arms race, rather it is focused on building sustainable capabilities," he said on X.
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement commits each country to respond in the event of an attack on the other. (Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein)
Yet the decision to sign the deal in Islam's holiest city, Mecca, made a point: three of Sunni Muslim's largest and most economically and strategically powerful countries banding together, vowing to come to each other's aid if attacked.
Saudi Arabia is a gulf energy giant; the biggest buyer of US military equipment in the world, and the most strategically located country in the region.
Türkiye is not just a member of NATO but the country with the biggest army in the group apart from the US.
It is also a country that has rapidly become one of the largest defence manufacturers in the world, with ties to Russia and interests lying with the future of both Syria and Lebanon.
And then there is Pakistan: a nuclear-armed power that is not quite in the region, but spending an increasing amount of time this past year finding a role for itself as a mediator between Iran and the United States.
It is an arms manufacturer, with strong ties to China and it is the largest buyer of Türkiye's military exports, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
There are existing links between the three signatories: Riyadh signed Türkiye's largest ever defence contract in 2023 to buy drones. Pakistan has provided Saudi with fighter jets and other Chinese-made systems.
The pact has been at least expedited by the US-Iran conflict but the complex ties all three countries have in the region means the deal has implications beyond that.
Moving beyond superpower rivalry
There is plenty of agreement that the so-called Mecca Joint Defence Agreement is a reflection of the profound change in the geo-strategic balance in the Middle East that has followed the disastrous US-Israeli war on Iran.
The Iran war has had a far-reaching impact on relationships in the Middle East. (ABC News: Daniel Pannett)
The region can certainly no longer simply be seen as the playground for super power rivalry.
The Mecca pact is the latest response to both the stated intention of the United States to reduce Washington's presence in the region, and to the erratic behaviour of the current incumbent of the White House.
Russia would no doubt like to have more influence in the region, but President Vladamir Putin has his own war to fight just now.
Significantly, Syria has just announced that it has reached a deal to take control of two Russian military bases, largely ending Moscow's military presence in the country.
Some analysts believe Pakistan's decision to tie itself in more closely with the affairs of the region will be of benefit to China.
But all the ties are now so complex, that's still to be seen.
In a speech at the Türkish parliament in June, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said his country's security "doesn't begin at the Hatay [the Turkish province on the Syrian border]".
"It begins at [the Syrian city of] Aleppo, it begins at Damascus. Türkiye's security begins in [the Lebanese capital of] Beirut," he said.
"We won't tolerate fait accompli in our brother countries, and won't turn a blind eye when they come under attack.
"Lebanon and Syria are two sovereign countries, but they are part of a geography of compassion and brotherhood."
Türkiye's declaration of its ties with Lebanon and Syria illustrate how the tentacles of the new pact spread out beyond the central agreement between the three signatories, particularly when Israel has recently crossed both countries' borders and established "buffer zones".
Could other nations sign up?
The pact members' interactions with "non-state" actors is also complicated, with both Pakistan and Türkiye promoters of political Islam.
For years, the Pakistani relationship with the Taliban and Al Qaeda has been murky to say the least.
Mr Erdoğan has described Hamas as "holy warriors" and has supported other groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood as well as factions in Libya and Syria.
The major Sunni bloc is both a counterweight to Shiite Iran and could prove crucial to the future of the Sunni-majority Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, and therefore for Israel's capacity to ever get on with its neighbours.
The grouping also raises questions for other states in the Gulf, and particularly for Egypt and Jordan.
Türkiye's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Egypt, which controls the biggest military in the Arab world, may join the regional pact "once certain technical matters are sorted out".
But Egypt is also the second largest recipient of American aid, behind Israel, and will no doubt be waiting to see what Washington thinks of the pact.
So too will Jordan, which has been both isolated, and under attack, because of its ties to the US.
There is also the complication that both Egypt and Jordan have signed peace deals with Israel which require them to intercept any threats it faces.
While some other Gulf states might be enticed to join the bloc in time, Andreas Krieg, an associate professor of defence studies at King's College London, says it "will not develop into an Islamic NATO with dozens of countries accepting identical defence obligations".
Although, he told the South China Morning Post, there may be more coordination with the group "without necessarily becoming formal treaty members".
A sign middle powers are asserting themselves
With so many moving pieces, it is little wonder that analysts can't all quite agree on what it actually means.
Is it a pact directed at Israel or Iran or both or neither? What would be its practical effect?
For example, would Pakistan or Türkiye really come to the defence of Saudi Arabia if it came under attack?
Despite all the disagreement, this pact is a story about middle powers, and local powers, asserting themselves.
With the hopes of any sort of real settlement between Iran and the United States fading by the day, and Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon only escalating ahead of elections in October, the significance of the new pact only grows.
Donald Trump has sought to create his own agreements in the Middle East. (Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein)
US President Donald Trump's ambition was for a very different regional bloc, built around Saudi, Israel and the UAE, with stronger ties through the Abraham Accords.
In fact, just a few weeks ago, Trump announced a deal that would allow American firms to help build a civilian nuclear energy program in the kingdom.
But this fell under a cloud within hours of being announced after the US president retrospectively said the deal could only go ahead with formal Saudi recognition of Israel, and a decision for the kingdom to join the Abraham Accords, which was immediately rejected.
Israel's actions in Gaza and the West Bank make the prospect of closer ties between Riyadh and Israel ever more difficult, the only real alliances Israel has in the region now is with the Emiratis.
Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu also had very different ambitions for a network of allied regional nations.
Announcing a visit to Israel by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February, Netanyahu said India would part of the "axis of nations that see eye to eye" with Israel.
He mentioned Greece and Cyprus — two countries with long-standing grievances against Türkiye — as well as other unnamed Arab, African and Asian countries.
"In the vision I see before me, we will create an entire system, essentially a 'hexagon' of alliances around or within the Middle East," Netanyahu said, according to the Times of Israel.
"The intention here is to create an axis of nations that see eye to eye on the reality, challenges, and goals against the radical axes, both the radical Shia axis, which we have struck very hard, and the emerging radical Sunni axis."
Whatever he thought the "radical Sunni axis" was then, he is certainly confronting a very substantial Sunni axis now.
While few analysts can conceive of the idea of any of the pact partners coming to the aid of the others in an actual kinetic war, the very concept of the deal can have all sorts of other implications.
For example, Saudi, Türkiye and Pakistan effectively surround much of Iran.
They, therefore, would have the capacity to influence the Iranian trade which has moved onto roads across central Asia with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Both Pakistan and Türkiye have also voiced support for a maritime defence coalition Saudi Arabia has announced to protect regional shipping and energy routes against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait and Gulf of Aden.
Neither Iran nor Israel seem particularly impressed by the new bloc
Iranian politician Ebrahim Rezaei said on X that the Saudis "should know that a paper agreement with Türkiye and Pakistan will not bring them security, just as years of one-sided milking by the Americans did not bring them security".
"Change your policies so that you do not have to #BegForSecurity from others," he advised.
Perhaps to bring home the point, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis subsequently attacked the massive Saudi Jazan refinery, two days after the pact was signed.
Echoing the sentiments of Mr Netanyahu, his opponent in the forthcoming Israeli election, Naftali Bennett, has said Türkiye was forming an axis "similar to the Iranian one".
He warned that Israel must act "simultaneously" against threats from both Tehran and Ankara.
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