Extract from ABC News
A billboard in Tehran depicting Donald Trump shows the anti-US sentiment in Iran. (Reuters/WANA: Majid Asgaripour)
Hi, I'm ABC Global affairs editor Laura Tingle and I'm in Jerusalem. This is our weekly update on what's been going on in the Middle East war and what to look for in the days ahead.
Here's what you should know now:
- The jockeying and chest thumping in Tehran and Washington about who is going to blink first has continued for another week, most recently after Iran issued a new 14-point proposal for a peace deal, which it sent to Pakistan on Thursday. The proposal reportedly includes demands that the US lift the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, as well as sanctions on Iran, all hostilities including in Lebanon, and the withdrawal of all US forces in the region.
- You might notice there is no mention of the future of Iran's nuclear capabilities, nor any real shift in Iran's claims to be able to control the Strait of Hormuz. It is now almost a month since the current ceasefire came into force on April 8, with little sign of progress. The US and Iran have continued to attack, capture, and intercept each other's ships in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump told Israeli media overnight the Iranian proposal was "not acceptable to me".
- Both sides continue to insist that they are winning, with the US variously claiming the Iranian regime is splintering and that the economic sanctions it is imposing means the regime cannot even pay its soldiers. For its part, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and foreign ministry officials have told the US that it must choose between an "impossible military operation" or a "bad deal" (for the US), setting a 30-day deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. There have also been a number of reports that damage to US bases in the region is much more extensive than had previously been known, with suggestions some have been left almost inoperable.
- Relationships among Gulf countries are fracturing, with the United Arab Emirates announcing it will leave the OPEC oil cartel, in a move seen as being as much about geopolitics as oil. The UAE is increasingly aligning itself much more firmly and publicly with Israel and the US, with reports emerging that Israel supplied air defence systems to the Emiratis from the earliest days of the war, as the UAE faced the biggest Iranian bombardment of any country, including Israel. And there are now reports the Trump administration is seeking to fast-track $US8.6 billion ($11.9 billion) of arms sales to allies in the Middle East, including Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE, to assist them fend off further Iranian attacks.
Here's what to watch in the days ahead:
The terrible conditions in Gaza, as well as the creeping occupation of Israel into the Strip and continued killings, have taken a back seat in the news in recent months. But there are increasing reports that Israel is considering a renewed assault on Gaza amid few signs that Hamas is going to give up its weapons or its control over what remains of the Strip.
The Israeli cabinet was due to meet to discuss this overnight, Australian time. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instead had a smaller meeting with security officials.
A senior official in the Israeli military's general staff told Channel 15 that an additional round of fighting was "almost inevitable", citing Hamas's refusal to surrender its weapons and the alleged "failure" of the International Stabilization Force, a multinational body deployed under the recent truce framework to oversee security and manage the ceasefire's implementation.
Israel's Army Radio reported that on the ground, the military had steadily been enlarging the territory it controlled in the enclave. By gradually pushing the "Yellow Line" westwards, Israeli forces have expanded their territorial control to 59 per cent of the Strip.
Meanwhile, the situation in Lebanon has not been improving despite a ceasefire supposedly also being in place there, with 20 more civilians killed and 46 wounded by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Sunday, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, and reports of Hezbollah attacks in northern Israel.
Israel's actions in southern Lebanon, where it has been demolishing whole villages it links to Hezbollah across a wide swathe of the south, have been likened to its strategy in Gaza.
And here's what I'll be keeping an eye on:
You've all seen the images of increasingly blatant violence against Palestinians in the West Bank from, and around, settler communities. The pace of expansion of settlements has seemed to increase exponentially and now includes more than 700,000 Israelis.
What's less obvious in the pictures is the increasing economic, legal and administrative stranglehold being applied to Palestinian communities since October 7, 2023, but particularly at an escalating pace in the past couple of months, which also seeks to reduce the role and powers of the Palestinian Authority.
Analysts say it is these measures that show Israel is preparing to annex the West Bank, not just occupy it.
For example, since February, Israel has opened the land market to direct purchase by Israelis and "renewed" the land-registration process in what is known as Area C for the first time since 1967, when Israel captured the West Bank from Jordan in the Six-Day War.
Israel is also now expanding its control over water, environment, heritage and archaeology in other areas of the West Bank administered by the Palestinian Authority.
Palestinian communities in the West Bank find themselves locked behind gates in increasingly small areas, facing the economic difficulties that have come with not being allowed into Israel to work since the October 7 attacks.
Thanks for joining me. We'll be back with another briefing next Monday.
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