Analysis
Updated
It was "a very good time to have a meeting" with Vladimir Putin.
Until it wasn't.US President Donald Trump's declaration that he "probably" would meet with the Russian President, as he headed off to the G20, was followed just minutes later with the above tweets cancelling the encounter due to events in Ukraine.
Yeah, right.
The web of lies spun by Mr Trump's associates over Russia is tightening, and with it the net cast by special counsel Robert Mueller who's looking at possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia in 2016.
Mr Trump has been expecting it. He's been antsy ever since the midterms.
He's got a few reasons to be.
For one, we know that Mr Trump's business dealings with Moscow continued well into the presidential campaign.
His former lawyer and Mr Fixit, Michael Cohen, has now totally rolled over.
In a surprise New York court hearing, he entered a guilty plea for lying to congress about negotiations to build a Trump Tower in Moscow.
According to court documents, Cohen told congressional investigators that plans for the so-called "Moscow Project" were shelved in January 2016. He wanted to give the impression that Mr Trump was clear of the the project before the all-important Iowa Caucus on February 1.
But he wasn't. Cohen has now admitted the project discussions continued as late as June 2016.
Also, Cohen had told Congress that he never received a response to an email request to speak with a top aide of Mr Putin when the project stalled in January 2016, and thus the Moscow Project was terminated.
Another lie.
The new filing reveals that the Russians did respond. Cohen had a 20-minute phone conversation with an assistant to senior aide Dmitry Pskov. Cohen asked for help with financing and securing land.
In the court document, prosecutors emphasise how Cohen had talked with Mr Trump — referred to as "individual 1" — about the project, and airs discussions about a potential Mr Trump visit to Moscow and meeting with Mr Putin.
Also mentioned in the document is "individual 2".
That's Felix Sater, the Soviet-born developer who was involved in the Moscow Project. Cohen continued to have contact with him well into summer 2016.
(Note: Sater features in this Four Corners piece from earlier this year.)
Sater invited Cohen to an economic conference in St Petersburg, promising that he would meet Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, and maybe even Mr Putin himself.
The court document reveals Cohen also told Sater he would consider a trip to Russia before the Republican National Convention.
Cohen's consideration of that trip ended on the same day the DNC email story broke (remember, Russian hackers — more to the point, alleged Russian intelligence — were responsible for that).
Why would Cohen lie about all this?
That's one point he's clear on."I made these misstatements to be consistent with Individual 1's political messaging and out of loyalty to Individual 1," Mr Cohen's filing states.So, he's saying he lied to protect Mr Trump's political prospects, and to make it appear he was clear of any Russian connections before he was declared the nominee.
All of this is a big deal for several reasons, but one that's slightly outside the obvious is that it sheds some light on the special counsel's strategy.
You'll recall that Mr Trump recently got rid of Attorney-General Jeff Sessions, largely due to frustration that he hadn't reined in the Russia probe, and replaced him with now Acting Attorney-General Matt Whitaker, an anti-Mueller Trump supporter.
When the special counsel does complete his report, it will be up to Mr Whitaker to decide whether to release it, or bury it.
However, Mr Mueller can drip out a fair bit of detail to the public via court filings without the Attorney-General's approval.
You follow me?
Clever.
Anyway, the next obvious thing will be whether Mr Trump gets caught out in his own lies after the admissions of his (former) buddies.
Today he described Cohen as "weak" and "not very smart". When asked why he'd hired him in the first place, he said that Cohen did him a favour once, "a long time ago".
According to the Washington Post, Cohen used to call himself Mr Trump's pit bull, and once said he'd "take a bullet" for his boss.
When Mr Trump was asked specifically about his financial interests in Russia while on the campaign trail in July 2016, his answer was straightforward.
"I will tell you right now, zero, I have nothing to do with Russia, yes?"
In case anyone had doubts, he also tweeted about it:
That may have been true, but it appears he was strongly thinking about it.
Speaking to reporters as he departed for the G20, the President hosed down the significance of the negotiations, as did his lawyers later.
"That was a project that wasn't done for a lot of reasons. Number one is I was focused on running for president," he said.
"This deal was a very public deal. Everybody knows about this deal. I wasn't trying to hide anything, OK?"
"Now, here's the thing, even if he was right, it doesn't matter, because I was allowed to do whatever I wanted during the campaign. There was a good chance that I wouldn't have won, in which case I would have gotten back into the business, and why should I lose lots of opportunities?"
So it was about MONEY.
According to the new plea agreement and federal sentencing guidelines, Cohen faces a maximum prison sentence of six months. He could get off with no time.
If you ask the Democrats, there is more to the story than the "lighter sentence" theory.
Here's high-ranking Senate Intelligence Committee member Mark Warner:
"You've got all these closest associates of the President, one after another, pleading guilty, often pleading guilty about their ties to Russia and Russians, and what are they covering up for?"
Now, there's some timing to consider here.
Yes, Mr Trump confirmed this week that he's delivered written answers to several questions from Mr Mueller.
CNN got a break on the key points, and chief among them is that his old associate Roger Stone did not tell him about the WikiLeaks plot to release those hacked emails (allegedly sourced by pesky Russian intelligence) from the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton's campaign chief during the 2016 election.
Mr Mueller's team has been sniffing around Republican political operative Stone for a while, keen to know whether he knew in advance that the document dump was coming.
CNN also reports that Mr Trump did not know about the 2016 Trump Tower meeting between Donald Trump Jr and the Russian lawyer who promised dirt on Mrs Clinton (which is relevant to all of the above).
He's said this before, of course.
However, the key difference is that he's finally committed those denials to a very official legal document, meaning he'd be subject to prosecution if he answered untruthfully.
Yes, that's called perjury, and the President and his legal team have been acutely aware of what they have described as "perjury traps" in Mr Mueller's questions. The President suggested that if his recollection of the weather was incorrect, for example, he could be caught out for lying.
What did he say in response to questions about the Moscow Project, we wonder?
Anyway, note that CNN's report is based on two anonymous sources, one of whom disclosed the information "without providing any direct quotes".
So there's that.
Speaking of lies, though, and more to the point, liars:
Remember Paul Manafort?
Uh huh, remember, Mr Trump's former campaign chairman signed a plea agreement with the special counsel over allegations he may have known about Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.
Now, the special counsel says he not only lied, he also told Mr Trump's legal team about the nature of Mueller's questions. Oh, and there's also now reporting that suggests he met with WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange during the campaign.
Yep, seriously.
However:
A million dollars, huh? Maybe all bets are off now.
Anyway, on Monday, Mr Mueller's office said Manafort violated his plea agreement by lying about "a variety of subject matters".
Manafort's defence lawyers disagreed, saying he provided truthful information. But under the terms of the agreement, he can't take back his guilty plea.
So his sentencing will happen sooner rather than later, leaving us all to ponder the big question: Will Mr Trump pardon Manafort?
Some see a 'yes' in the fact that Manafort informed the President's legal team about the nature and substance of his discussions with Mr Mueller, which at a minimum is a little shifty and at most is illegal.
One thing's for certain, all eyes will be on the detailed sentencing brief that Mr Mueller's team plans to lodge in relation to Manafort.
After the Cohen revelations, it's another way for the special counsel to reveal details about the investigation without having to rely on a Trump-appointed attorney-general to release it.
Watch this space.
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