Thursday 7 November 2024

From the Israel-Gaza war to Ukraine and Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump's win will send shock waves around the world.

Extract from ABC News

Analysis

Donald Trump on cusp of victory in US presidential election.

With Donald Trump set to return to the White House, the international outlook is in for a major shake-up. Perhaps even a wild ride.

The most dramatic change would be regarding the war in Ukraine. The only way that Ukraine has been able to hold off Russia's push towards Kyiv has been due to the huge financial support of NATO.

While Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the support of this alliance has allowed it to match a much larger and better-resourced army.

The US is the biggest funder of NATO, and Trump has made clear his disregard for the alliance. He believes the US has for too long carried many countries in NATO that have not paid their fair share.

Global Affairs Editor John Lyons on what a Donald Trump presidency means for foreign policy.

Added to Trump's antipathy to NATO is his mysterious relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump appears to have a closer relationship with Putin than he admits. He will not say whether he has had contact with Putin over the past year.

This becomes important when it comes to Ukraine. Trump declared on CNN in May 2023 that he could end the Ukraine war "in 24 hours".

"They're dying, Russians and Ukrainians," Trump said. "I want them to stop dying. And I'll have that done — I'll have that done in 24 hours."

Pushed on that, Trump said he would meet Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

From my trips to Ukraine since Russia's invasion in February 2022, it's been clear that both Ukraine's leadership and public have been fixated on this US presidential election.

There is a strong sense in Ukraine that to end the war in 24 hours, or at least quickly, Trump would get both leaders together and tell them that they needed to put down their guns and walk away with what they currently have — which would be disastrous for Ukraine.

On that scenario, overnight Ukraine's territory would shrink by 20 per cent, which is what Russia has already taken. This in turn would most likely lead to enormous divisions and recriminations inside Ukraine — people would be angry that they lost thousands of people fighting a war which a US president then rewarded Russia for beginning, by gifting to them one-fifth of Ukraine.

Many would blame Zelenskyy for not having delivered victory. And many would blame the West — particularly the US — for not allowing Ukraine to attack inside Russia and not providing Ukraine what it most needed, particularly fighter jets such as F-16s.

Changes with China that would send shock waves globally

The second major likely change in international affairs regards China. Kamala Harris would most likely have continued a more predictable approach to China — strategic competition, economic competition but an attempt to keep conflict at the lowest level possible.

But Trump is likely to be much different. He's made clear during the campaign that he sees China as the biggest threat to US economic prosperity.

He's signalled that he intends to try to stem the flood of Chinese goods into the US by imposing large tariffs on Chinese goods. He's suggested the tariffs on China could be as high as 60 per cent.

That would cause major convulsions to world trade. A new and bruising trade war between the US and China would not just damage both countries but damage confidence around the world.

Australia would not be hit as badly as many countries. Whatever Trump's unpredictability, he and much of the senior US political leadership regard Australia as a loyal ally.

During Trump's first presidency, Australia managed to navigate Trump's tariff push, with Australian aluminium and steel being largely exempted. Credit for this goes in large part to then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.

Trump will be more supportive of Israel

And finally, the Middle East. Kamala Harris would have been tougher on Israel than Trump will be. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently visited Washington — during a meeting Harris made clear she was unhappy with the number of civilians being killed by Israel in Gaza.

In contrast, Trump has made clear on several occasions that Israel should be allowed to "finish the job".

Few people seem to know what exactly that means.

But what is clear is that Trump would be much more supportive of Israel than Harris would have been.

"Wild" is one of Donald Trump's favourite words.

The world can now brace for what may be a wild ride.

Donald Trump elected 47th president of the United States

Posted by at No comments:

At least 38 killed, 54 injured as Israeli strikes pummel Lebanese province of Baalbek-Hermel.

Extract from ABC News

A plume of smoke rising high into the sky over a hilly landscape in Lebanon

The Israeli border community Avivim was hit by a projectile fired from Lebanon, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces. (Reuters: Violeta Santos Moura)

In short:

Israel's military has conducted at least 40 strikes in parts of Lebanon, hitting a number of Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon. 

Meanwhile, the head of a UN aid agency for Palestinians is warning an Israeli ban on its operations will "collapse the UN humanitarian response".

The Israeli government's ban on the UNRWA has sparked alarm internationally, including from the United States and Britain.

Israel has launched strikes across Lebanon as part of its months-long campaign against Hezbollah, with at least 38 people killed in just one region.

Forty Israeli strikes on Lebanon's Baalbek-Hermel region on Wednesday have killed 38 people and wounded 54, its governor Bachir Khodr said on X.

Further strikes were reported in south Beirut, a stronghold for Hezbollah, according to the AFP news service.

There was no immediate report on the number of casualties.

A plume of smoke rises at night over a city.

Smoke could be seen billowing over Beirut's southern suburbs after an Israeli strike on Wednesday. (Reuters: Mohamed Azakir)

The attack happened shortly after Hezbollah secretary general Naim Qassem said he did not believe that "political action" would bring about an end to hostilities.

He said there could be a road to indirect negotiations if Israel stopped its attacks.

One of the strikes triggered a loud explosion which was heard across much of the capital, witnesses said.

Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee had warned residents to evacuate the southern suburbs of Burj al-Barajneh, Laylaki and Haret Hreik in a post on X.

"You are located near facilities and interests affiliated with Hezbollah, against which the (military) will act in the near future," Mr Adraee said, as a speech by Hezbollah's new leader Naim Qassem was being broadcast.

Earlier Wednesday, Lebanon's official National News Agency reported Israeli air strikes on the Bekaa Valley in the east and the southern city of Nabatiyeh.

An AFP correspondent in the eastern city of Baalbek reported intense strikes in and around the city.

Israel's army had issued evacuation warnings for some but not all of the regions hit on Wednesday.

The Israeli army said Hezbollah had fired about 120 projectiles across the border.

More than a year of clashes that escalated into war in September have killed at least 3,050 people in Lebanon, according to health ministry figures.

UN aid agency for Palestinians facing its 'darkest hour', agency boss says

The head of a United Nations agency delivering aid to Palestinians says the organisation is facing its "darkest hour" after the Israeli government's decision to ban it.

Israel has accused employees of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) of participating in the October 7 attacks by Hamas last year, which led to the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and kidnapping of over 200 more.

A series of probes found some "neutrality related issues" at UNRWA, and determined that nine employees "may have been involved" in the October 7 attack, but found no evidence for Israel's central allegations.

UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini told the General Assembly on Wednesday implementing the ban would "have disastrous consequences".

"Without intervention by member states, UNRWA will collapse, plunging millions of Palestinians into chaos," he said.

"In the absence of a capable public administration or state, only UNRWA can deliver education to more than 650,000 girls and boys in Gaza.

"In the absence of UNRWA, an entire generation will be denied the right to education."

Israel's parliament approved a proposal to shut down UNRWA's operations despite condemnation from the international community, including its ally the United States as well as Britain and Germany.

Washington warned Israel on October 15 that it had 30 days to increase the amount of aid reaching the Gaza Strip or it would consider withholding some military assistance to its key ally.

Polio vaccination drive in Gaza completed, Israeli military says

Meanwhile, the Israeli military on Wednesday said aid organisations had completed a second round of polio vaccinations in Gaza.

The drive to vaccinate children in Gaza began in early September after the World Health Organisation (WHO) said a baby was partially paralysed by the virus.

It was the first case of polio in Gaza in 25 years.

A child is immunised via droplets into the mouth in a clinic.

Children are required to have two doses of the vaccine to be fully immunised against polio. (Reuters: Dawoud Abu Alkas)

On Tuesday, WHO representative Rik Peeperkorn said the mass evacuations from areas in northern Gaza where the Israeli military has been operating for more than a month, had made it difficult to estimate the number of children who might be missed in the north.

The Israeli military said after a humanitarian pause earlier this week, 1.1 million vaccinations had been administered in the enclave, achieving 90 per cent coverage.

The October 7 attack by Hamas has sparked an ongoing war between the terror organisation and the Israeli military, which has since spread to Lebanon.

AFP/Reuters

Posted by at No comments:

Historic linotype machine at Chiltern gives insight into print media history.

 Extract from ABC News

The Chiltern printing works is being maintained by a dedicated team. (Ashlee Aldridge)

American inventor Thomas Edison described the linotype machine as the eighth wonder of the world when it was introduced in 1886.

The technology revolutionised typesetting to make printing more efficient by creating a line of type at once, rapidly increasing newspaper circulation.

Today, the linotype makes up many pieces of equipment still in working order on display at the Federal Standard Printing Works in the small historic town of Chiltern in north-east Victoria.

A complicated-looking printing machine featuring a keyboard and various belts and pulleys.

The linotype machine is one of several pieces of printing equipment that are working and maintained. (ABC Goulburn Murray: Ashlee Aldridge)

Established in 1859, it is one of the few intact provincial newspaper printing works from the gold rush era.

It is brought back to life each month by resident volunteer printer Robert Martin.

Mr Martin and his wife Mary have volunteered at the printing works for the past 20 years.

"I did my trade at the Yarrawonga Chronicle many, many years ago," Mr Martin said.

"All this machinery here, I operated basically exactly the same machinery in my apprenticeship."

Robert and Mary standing in front of the printing press

Robert and Mary Martin have been volunteering at the Federal Standard Printing Works for the past 20 years. (ABC Goulburn Murray: Ashlee Aldridge)

Piece of history

The discovery of gold in Chiltern in 1858 drew thousands of people to the region.

The Federal Standard newspaper was founded the year after. 

It operated from the printing works for the next 110 years.

Various papers from around the district were also printed and published from the site, including Albury's first newspaper, The Border Post, and The Ovens Constitution at Beechworth.

An old brick building with a tin roof and bars across the windows.

The printing works has remained substantially intact since the gold mining era. (ABC Goulburn Murray: Ashlee Aldridge)

The National Trust of Australia (Victoria) bought the printing works in 1972.

Chiltern Properties coordinator Vaughn Clarke said the printing works was one of the most influential of its time.

"I think at one point they printed the papers in a 40-mile radius," he said.

Mr Clarke said the printing works played a major part in the route on which the railway lines were built.

"The railway didn't come here until 1873, and the editorials and the papers written here about that were crucial in the consideration of where the railway line would operate," Mr Clarke said.

"In the day there was lots of advertising, lots of information about what was happening in the town, and new businesses, death notices, when properties were being sold and the goods sold."

National Trust of Australia's Vaughn Clarke

Vaughn Clarke says the Federal Standard Printing Works was one of the most influential of its time. (ABC Goulburn Murray: Ashlee Aldridge)

Among the first owners was George H Mott, whose family's newspaper business became a dynasty.

They had involvement in owning and publishing more than 40 newspapers in a period of 112 years.

The building still houses many pieces of equipment, including a Wharfedale press, the century-old linotype machine and metal text and graphics in original type cases.

"There are other printing presses around but it is the only newspaper with the equipment in its original location," Mr Clarke said.

"So, there are other printing works that are now closed and used for other things that don't have their original equipment intact and things like that."

A hot metal typesetting system that cast lines of metal type for one-time use.

A linotype machine remains in the printing works. (ABC Goulburn Murray: Ashlee Aldridge)

Passion for printing

Mr Martin, whose career was in printing, said his passion for the trade was as strong as ever.

He said the linotype remained a stand-out piece of equipment for him.

It became obsolete due to emerging technologies after being widely used for about a century.

"I think the interesting point to make is that probably up until 1970, letterpress printing was the main source of information and education for well over 300 years," Mr Martin said.

Large printing press in old building.

Printing equipment remains in position at the Chiltern site.  (ABC Goulburn Murray: Ashlee Aldridge)

He said the introduction of offset printing and phototypesetting resulted in a quick demise in the use of the equipment.

"It basically died out in two decades," he said.

Mr Clarke said Chiltern Properties would not be able to operate the machines without Mr Martin's extensive knowledge of the equipment.

"So, one of our challenges going forward is to train people so we get more volunteers to come on board so we can open more often," he said.

A number of letter and emblem stamps next to each other on a bench

A collection of advertising blocks is still on display. (ABC Goulburn Murray: Ashlee Aldridge)

Town's rich history

Chiltern is also home to two other buildings owned by the National Trust (Victoria) — Dow's Pharmacy and the Lake View House.

The three buildings give it the claim to having the most National Trust registered buildings of any Victorian town in a 1-kilometre radius.

Chiltern's Lake View House.

Lake View House is one of three historic buildings owned the the National Trust. (ABC Goulburn Murray: Ashlee Aldridge)

The pharmacy, like the Federal Standard, opened the year after the discovery of gold in the town. 

The shop closed in 1968, with everything inside intact including original medication bottles and packaging on display.

Mr Clarke said the pharmacy and the printing works had a wonderful connection.

"A lot of the information we have about the early pharmacists is from bottles that we've found with their details stamped onto the glass," he said.

Down's pharmacy sign on top of the shop front.

Dow's Pharmacy is one of the many historical buildings that line the streets of Chiltern. (ABC Goulburn Murray: Ashlee Aldridge)

He said there were also advertisements in the Federal Standard Newspaper talking about the new pharmacists and new operators.

"Otherwise, prior to 1876 there was no Pharmacy Act so you didn't have to be a registered pharmacist," he said.

Posted by at No comments:

United Nations to study impact of nuclear war for first time since 1989 amid 'elevated risk'

Extract from ABC News

By Lachlan Bennett

Castle Bravo nuclear test

With the world "on the brink of a potential nuclear war", scientists are trying to work out just how bad it would be. (Supplied: NOAA)

In short:

The United Nations will set up an expert panel to investigate how nuclear war would impact all facets of society.

It's the first study of its kind since 1989 and has been prompted by concerns about geopolitical tensions.

What's next?

The panel will deliver its final report in 2027 and make recommendations for future research.

You don't need to watch too many apocalyptic blockbusters to realise that nuclear war would be devastating.

But when it comes to understanding the impact of a modern nuclear exchange, our data is nearly as old as The Terminator.

The last comprehensive United Nations study into nuclear war was published in 1989, back before the Soviet Union collapsed and before the first internet browser was released.

In the decades since, new nuclear powers have emerged and weapons technology has advanced.

The lack of holistic research into the consequences of nuclear conflict has the scientific community worried.

A US city engulfed in a nuclear explosion.

James Cameron's 1991 blockbuster Terminator 2 depicted a nuclear war sparked by an out-of-control artificial intelligence. (Supplied: Tri-Star Pictures)

An atomic fact-finding mission

In light of these concerns, the UN First Committee last week voted to establish a panel of 21 international experts to assess how nuclear war would impact all facets of life, from public health and population to economics and agriculture.

The panel will harness the expertise of UN agencies, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency, while also soliciting data from governments and organisations like the Red Cross.

It will explore the role of new technology, such as artificial intelligence, and new risks, such as cyber-attacks.

And after consulting with "the widest range of scientists and experts", a final report will be delivered in 2027.

Australia was one of 144 voters to support the move, while 30 abstained and three nuclear-armed nations opposed: the UK, France and Russia.

New Zealand and Ireland introduced the resolution.

"At a time of elevated risk of nuclear conflict, there is a clear need to publicly establish an accurate and up-to-date understanding of the impacts of a nuclear war," they said.

Delegates sit at desks and look up at a screen in the UN General Assembly.

The last time the United Nations mandated a comprehensive study into the impact of nuclear war was during the Cold War. (Reuters: Eduardo Munoz)

Is nuclear war more likely today?

Nuclear war may seem a fading relic of the Cold War era, with global stockpiles declining from around 70,000 weapons in the 1980s to just over 12,000 today.

But many disarmament treaties are no longer in force, and new nuclear powers are expanding their arsenals.

Historic rivals India and Pakistan had only just established their nuclear programs when the last UN report was released.

They now have more 300 weapons between them.

A missile the size of several cars is towed on the back of a truck down a street lined with onlookers

A surface-to-surface Agni V missile is displayed during India's Republic Day parade in 2013.  (Reuters: B Mathur)

China has added hundreds of weapons to its arsenal in recent decades, while becoming an economic and military rival to nuclear leader the United States.

North Korea has also joined the nuclear club, while two long-standing nuclear nations, Israel and Russia, have been fighting conflicts that have threatened to spiral out control.

Today, the world is arguably closer to a nuclear strike than at any time since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, according to University of Queensland international relations expert Marianne Hanson.

"We have nine nuclear weapon states now, and all of them have actually threatened to use them," Dr Hanson said.

"We really are on the brink of a potential nuclear war unless some decision is taken to halt this madness."

Kim Jong Un stands next to a nuclear warhead

North Korea is one of the newest nations to become a nuclear power, under its leader Kim Jong Un. (AP: KCNA)

Nuclear powers 'don't want the world to know' the real risks

Nuclear disarmament advocates have welcomed Australia's support for the UN study, especially given the opposition of its ally, the UK.

The UK Foreign Office told The Guardian the world did not need an independent scientific panel to know that "nuclear war would have devastating consequences".

But Dr Hanson said the nuclear powers "don't want the world to know just how devastating a nuclear war will be".

"Or indeed the fact that we've had numerous close calls," she said.

A head shot of a female academic.

Marianne Hanson is an associate professor of international relations at the University of Queensland. (Supplied)

One of the most famous close calls occurred in 1983, when a Soviet early-warning system falsely reported missiles flying towards Russia from the US.

Despite Soviet protocol, the officer on duty did not report the false alarm to his superiors, preventing a potential retaliation.

According to the memoirs of former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, there was a more recent close call in 2019 when India launched strikes against militants in Pakistan following an attack in Kashmir.

Dr Hanson said the world had been "extremely lucky" to avoid a nuclear conflict.

"Our luck is not going to hold out forever," she said.

Why do we need another study?

The glow of a nuclear blast.

The detonation of the world's first nuclear weapon in 1945, known as the Trinity test, was part of the Manhattan Project. (Supplied: US Department of Energy/Jack Aeby)

Various governments and institutions have studied aspects of nuclear weapons in recent decades.

But a lot of research has focused on areas of "military relevance", according to International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons founding member Tilman Ruff.

"We really understand very little about the psychological, climatic, economic, social, political and infrastructure implications of nuclear weapons in the modern era," he said.

Dr Ruff said the UN panel would provide authoritative and transparent research, without the "bias or needs of any particular country".

"It gives it much more credibility and currency. Nations can't say, 'Oh, this doesn't apply to us'," he said.

"This is everybody's work, everybody's business."

Some recent research has already taken advantage of advances in climate modelling.

A 2022 study found a nuclear exchange of less than 1 per cent of the world's arsenal would throw so much soot into the air, that the subsequent decline in rainfall and sunlight, and damage to agriculture, would leave 1.5 billion people at risk of starvation.

"We know now that those effects can happen with a much smaller nuclear war than previously thought," Dr Ruff said.

"And there are still many new effects of nuclear weapons being discovered.

"What happens to the oceans? What happens to marine currents? What happens to fisheries?"

Can a study stop nuclear war?

A headshot of a male academic.

Tilman Ruff says many nuclear armed nations do not want the spotlight on the consequences of nuclear war. (Supplied)

Whether a UN study will make a difference in the heat of battle remains to be seen.

But Dr Ruff hoped the panel could do for nuclear disarmament what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has done for climate change.

"It certainly suits the nuclear armed states for this not to be particularly prominent," he said.

"But it's not going to go away by denial, and the first step to dealing with any important issue is to look at the facts."

Dr Hanson said the UN panel would "get the message out" in a "very, very high-profile" way.

"Sometimes we think, 'What, another report? Another UN campaign? Is it really going to make a difference?'" she said.

"But I wouldn't discount the cumulative impact that it can have.

"It might have been argued in 1992 or 1993 that the chemical weapons convention isn't going to make any difference, but it did over time."

Posted by at No comments:

First clash between Ukrainian and North Korean troops 'open page' to instability, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says.

 Extract from ABC News

Army troops walk in grass

Ukrainian troops seen here during a military exercise at a training ground. (Reuters: Ivan Antypenko)

In short: 

A "small engagement" between North Korean and Ukrainian troops has taken place, Ukraine's defence minister said. 

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the first battles between the Ukrainian military and North Korean troops "open a new page in instability in the world".

What's next?

Ukraine is expecting a sharp rise in the number of North Koreans deployed.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that the first battles between Ukrainian and North Korean troops "open a new page in instability in the world", following a report from his defence minister of a "small engagement".

Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed, in an interview with South Korean television, that the first contact had occurred, an apparent escalation in a conflict that began when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Mr Zelenskyy, in his nightly video address, thanked those in the world who, he said, had reacted to the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia last month "not just with words … but who are preparing actions to support our defence".

Kim Jong Un in a black suit standing in front of a line of dozens of North Korean soldiers wearing brown

Kim Jong Un inspects North Korean troops before the country's leader committed ground forces to the conflict in Ukraine.  (Reuters: via KCNA)

"The first battles with North Korean soldiers open a new page of instability in the world," he said.

He said that Ukraine, acting with the rest of the world, had to "do everything so that this Russian step to expand the war with real escalation fails."

Mr Umerov told South Korea's KBS television in an interview broadcast on Tuesday that there had been a "small engagement" with North Korean troops.

"Yes, I think so. It is (an) engagement," Mr Umerov said in English, when asked if a clash had occurred.

The report, with excerpts from the interview, quoted Mr Umerov as saying that the engagement was small and not yet systematic in terms of mobilising soldiers.

Troops in frontline areas

South Korea's Defence Ministry said on Tuesday that more than 10,000 North Korean troops had arrived in Russia, with a "significant number" in the frontline areas, including the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces staged an incursion in August.

Mr Zelenskyy quoted intelligence sources as saying on Monday that 11,000 North Koreans were in Russia. 

The Pentagon said at least 10,000 North Korean soldiers were in Kursk, but it could not corroborate suggestions that they had been engaged in combat.

The KBS report said Mr Umerov told the interviewer that identification and other procedures would take time as the Russian military was trying to pass off the North Koreans as Buryats, a Mongolian ethnic group from Siberian regions.

Mr Umerov said he expected a sharp rise in the number of North Koreans deployed.

"(There are) already contacts, but after a couple of weeks, we would see a more significant number and upon this, we will review it and analyse it," he said.

Expectations that North Korean troops would undergo a month's training, he said, appeared to have been shortened to one or two weeks to allow swifter deployment to the battlefield.

Russia has not acknowledged that North Korean troops are on its territory, but President Vladimir Putin last week did not deny reports of their presence. 

He said it was up to Russia how to implement its defence pact with Pyongyang.

Reuters

Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)