A personal view of Australian and International Politics
Contemporary politics,local and international current affairs, science, music and extracts from the Queensland Newspaper "THE WORKER" documenting the proud history of the Labour Movement.
MAHATMA GANDHI ~ Truth never damages a cause that is just.
ABC
almost certainly facing yet another efficiency review if Coalition is
elected, insiders say.
It’s only week one of the election campaign but Peter Dutton
has made it abundantly clear how he feels about the ABC’s funding and
its journalists. Pressed repeatedly by 2GB broadcaster Ben Fordham to
name his favourite ABC journalist, Dutton came up with no one.
“My
favourite ABC journalist, I might have to go back a fair way, Ben, to
identify that,” he told the Nine-owned Sydney radio station.
“But
I think there are some who, frankly, are just partisan players, and
people see that on their TV screens every night. And again, the ABC is
using taxpayers’ money.”
This barb came the day after the opposition leader hinted he may cut the ABC’s funding, and he repeated his line to Fordham.
“Nobody
at the ABC gets $1 of pay without it being funded by Australian
taxpayers. And as I’ve said before, if we find waste in the ABC, then we
won’t support that, and I think Australian households and businesses
would expect nothing less.”
The
ABC is almost certainly facing yet another efficiency review if the
Coalition is elected, and chair, Kim Williams, said at the Melbourne
Press Club it was “game on”. It will be another review to add to the many. We counted 14 ABC efficiency reviews between 2003 and 2018 alone.
The
ABC Alumni chair, Jonathan Holmes, told Weekly Beast it’s standard play
by conservative governments to have an efficiency review of the ABC.
“And almost always they’ve come to the conclusion that in programming
terms, the ABC is really an efficient organisation,” he said.
The change in economic outlook is just an example of the wave of change Donald Trump is imposing on everyone else on the planet. (Reuters: Carlos Barria)
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As
the internet came alive with memes of outraged Heard Island penguins
protesting at being hit with 10 per cent tariffs by the US on Thursday,
others online were speculating about just how the Trump administration
had come up with its tariffs formula, which not only hit the scenic
penguin colony but the US military base on Diego Garcia.
There was some speculation that the White House might have asked ChatGPT for some suggestions the night before.
The
scary thing is that the wild, erratic and irrational way the Trump
White House works meant that this did not necessarily seem such a crazy
theory.
But as the US stock market collapsed
in its biggest one day fall since the COVID pandemic hit in 2020, the
underlying impact of Trump's wild tariff moves forced us all to not just
anxiously anticipate the next madness, but to understand that, whatever
the future of the president, his fellow travellers, and the presidency,
the times have changed, and the entire world has to just get on as best
it can.
We've all talked about the potential
strategic and economic ramifications for Australia of Trump's America
First policies. But they have always been mired in uncertainty about
what might actually happen.
Well, they are now happening. The rest of the world has been quietly planning. And the whole world will never be the same.
It's
not just a question of who puts on reciprocal tariffs. It's that
countries that might not necessarily even like each other very much are
talking together about rewiring their trading systems to essentially
deal with a USA-less world.
At
home, the economic scenarios framed within the past couple of weeks to
be contained in the federal budget, and in the RBA's rate decision on
Tuesday, are sort of redundant.
Everyone knew Liberation Day was coming on April 2, but couldn't confidently forecast just what it would mean.
Waves of change
An
example of what it means is that the markets are now predicting four
interest rate cuts in Australia this year, with the next as early as
next month, and possibly even 0.5 percentage points. Which they weren't
doing six days ago.
This change
could be crystallised when Treasury and the Department of Finance
release the Pre-Election Fiscal and Economic Outlook early next week.
Treasurer
Jim Chalmers had commissioned two rounds of modelling on the Trump
tariff scenarios from late last year but said this week that he had
commissioned another round as soon as Trump made his announcements in
the White House Rose Garden.
We
are in "caretaker" mode just now, which would normally suggest he
couldn't commission such modelling. But given the gravity of events, he
said he would commission it and release it publicly to share it with the
opposition.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he has commissioned another round of modelling on the Trump tariff scenarios. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)
In
the US, analysts are discussing whether the recession that they now are
increasingly anticipating will only hit the US economy, and/or just how
an inflationary surge from tariffs might actually transmit to the rest
of the globe.
In our region,
where many of our trading partners will be hit hard by the new tariffs,
much will depend on what decision China now makes about a stimulus to
offset their impact.
The change in economic outlook is just an example of the wave of change Donald Trump is imposing on everyone else on the planet.
It
involves big strategic questions, of course. There has been a clear
tussle going on for a few years among policy analysts here about whether
Australia is too close to the US, and about the value of AUKUS.
These
questions only rear larger now. But as a first step, Trump's America
has had to change the ground on which our leaders operate.
A sharp response
While
many commentators have spoken about the lacklustre nature of our
collective political leadership, and its competence, the government's
response to the tariff decision on Tuesday was reassuringly sharp.
The
prime minister, along with his foreign and trade ministers, came out
early on Thursday morning to respond to the announcements.
Gone,
thankfully, was all the usual tosh about our special relationship,
great and powerful friends, wars fought etc, to be replaced by a much
calmer and cooler response which dialled down the rhetoric, but made
clear the government had been doing the groundwork to prepare for what
was to come.
That
involves maintaining a commitment to free trade, and pointing out that
the government has been rebuilding and strengthening relationships in
the region which could now prove crucial.
There
was a comprehensive and detailed response to match getting the tone
right. The fact that the detailed response was able to be worked out
even as the government was caught up in the chaos of campaign travel,
spoke particularly well of all those involved.
Opposition
Leader Peter Dutton, by contrast, was still engaging in some of the
tosh, continuing to suggest that he would be able to get exemptions that
had escaped every other leader in the world.
Not
only that, but he was suggesting he would use our defence relationship
with the US to get a better outcome. What, perhaps suggest to the
Americans they couldn't keep landing in Darwin? Or that we might close
Pine Gap or North West Cape?
His
informed colleagues were aghast. Neither approach was pitched in any
way appropriately as a response to what was unfolding before us.
A new sense of uncertainty for voters
The
veteran strategic and defence analyst Professor Hugh White told a
seminar in Canberra organised by former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull
this week: "I think the historians are going to judge Donald Trump's
doing us a favour by making clear to us things we've been determined not
to recognise for ourselves."
That
is, "the strange thing about Donald Trump, and one of the most
confusing things about this moment in history is that Donald Trump
understands the underlying dynamics of American strategic position
better than the old guys, better than the guys who supported the
assumptions [that US leadership of the global rules based order] was
continuing."
White's long held
contention was that the US had stepped back from the global role it had
maintained since the end of the Cold War, but that not even a lot of
people in the Washington establishment could actually admit that to
themselves, including President Joe Biden and his officials. Or the
political establishment in Australia, for that matter.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was still engaging in some of the tosh this week. (ABC News: Brendan Esposito)
How
any of this plays out in a disengaged electorate is hard to say, beyond
the possibility that it will create a new sense of uncertainty for
voters, just as things were starting to feel a bit better (based on
consumer sentiment surveys this week).
It's
worth keeping in mind that the biggest take-out many people may have
got from this first week of the election campaign is that Peter Dutton
thinks it would be nice to live in Sydney, near the harbour.
Only
slightly more tin-eared an observation than his harbour dreaming was
his declaration that "I don't think you've seen anything yet — wait
until we get into this campaign and you will see more of what we've got
to offer".
Well, yes, that's right… we haven't seen anything yet when it comes to detailed policies.
Eight
days after his budget reply announcement that a Dutton government would
effectively retrospectively change the ground rules on billions of
dollars of investment by gas producers, by imposing an immediate
domestic gas reservation on the east coast and force them to sell gas to
the domestic market at a loss, we still don't know how he plans to do
this. Not even a press release.
As my colleague Jacob Greber has reported,
this has seen a cooling of the opposition leader's chummy relationship
with mining magnate Gina Rinehart, who has expressed her disappointment
in the Coalition's industrial relations and tax policies, while her
company has made clear it is underwhelmed by the gas reservation plan.
A new level of contempt for voters
On
Friday, Dutton was claiming the modelling behind the policy is "almost
here", as the pressure increases on him to detail how the plan would
drive wholesale gas prices below $10 per petajoule by the end of the
year as he has claimed.
It
looks for all the world like he will leave it to his energy spokesman
Ted O'Brien to try to argue it out when he debates Energy Minister Chris
Bowen at the National Press Club on Thursday.
Anyone would think that the calling of the election campaign was a surprise.
There
are also no policy details on the other bare bones of ideas that the
Coalition has floated, like how it would cut permanent migration by 25
per cent, or how it would cut 41,000 public service jobs.
There's a familiar pattern here for those who have been around for a while.
It
used to just be a question of when a political party was going to
submit its policy costings for official assessment by the Parliamentary
Budget Office.
Quite often it never happened, and certainly not in time for them to be released publicly before the election.
Now there's a whole new level of contempt for voters being demonstrated in the lack of actual policy detail.
The
day of reckoning, however, could still come. In 2010, the Coalition's
failure to present a coherent and properly costed set of policies cost
it the support of key crossbenchers in the negotiations over who would
form minority government.
The
spectre of that happening again means it won't necessarily be actual
policies that determine that decision if there is a hung parliament, but
an assessment of basic competence should be keeping the Coalition awake
at night.
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have launched significant tariff policies this week. (Reuters)
In short:
Global markets have tumbled again after China announced a 34 per cent tariff on all imports from the US.
Donald Trump said the move showed China had "panicked".
What's next?
Prime
Minister Anthony Albanese spoke with British Prime Minister Keir
Starmer, as world leaders try to figure out a response to the escalating
tariff battle. They agreed a trade war was "in nobody's interests",
Downing Street said.
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Donald Trump has claimed China "played it wrong" after Beijing moved to impose a 34 per cent tariff on all US goods.
China
announced it would hit American imports with new tariffs from April 10,
in response to the US president introducing sweeping levies for goods
from 180 countries this week as part of what he called "liberation day".
Mr
Trump reacted to China's tariffs on US goods on his social media
platform, Truth Social, after China's foreign ministry said the charges
will come in from April 10.
The
tariff on Chinese imports to the US is also 34 per cent from April 9,
bringing the total rate overall, including previous duties, to 54 per
cent.
"China played it wrong, they panicked — the one thing they cannot afford to do!" he posted in capital letters.
The
war of words came as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called
Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Italy's Prime Minister
Giorgia Meloni on Friday, local time, to discuss the unfolding tariff
battle.
"They all agreed that
an all-out trade war would be extremely damaging and is in nobody's
interests, while agreeing to keep in close contact in the coming days," a
spokesperson for No 10 Downing Street said.
Beijing's
announcement, which came amid continuing market turmoil, included
controls on exports of medium and heavy rare-earths to the United
States.
Donald Trump's tariff moves have caused stock markets across the world to plummet.
(AP Photo: Evan Vucci)
The
limits come into effect on Friday, local time, and are on samarium,
gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium.
Gadolinium is commonly used in magnetic resonance imaging and yttrium is used in consumer electronics.
Other materials are used in electric car batteries, as well as manufacturing and defence sectors.
"The
purpose of the Chinese government's implementation of export controls
on relevant items in accordance with the law is to better safeguard
national security and interests, and to fulfil international obligations
such as non-proliferation," China's Commerce Ministry said in a
statement.
China has also lodged a lawsuit against the US tariffs with the World Trade Organization.
Beijing
said the US tariffs were "a typical unilateral bullying practice that
endangers the stability of the global economic and trade order."
Earlier,
Mr Trump defended his sweeping tariff agenda, posting on his social
media platform Truth Social that his policies would "never change".
Stock markets are continuing to feel the impact of this week's tariff announcements. (AP Photo: Seth Wenig)
Additionally,
the Chinese government said it has added 27 US firms to lists of
companies subject to trade sanctions or export controls.
Among them, 16 are subject to a ban on the export of "dual-use" goods.
The
commerce ministry added the companies targeted seriously "undermined"
China's national sovereignty, security and development interests.
It said they would be prohibited from new investments, import and export activities in China.
Markets tumble after China tariff announcement
Global
stocks have dived following President Trump's tariff announcement,
which wiped $US2.4 trillion ($3.9t) off Wall Street equities.
The sell-off has deepened following China's retaliatory tariff move.
US markets opened sharply lower, following the lead of stocks across Europe.
Markets in the UK and Germany closed nearly 5 per cent lower on Friday.
Countries across the world are grappling with how to respond to President Trump's tariffs.
Most have criticised the move while also emphasising the need for negotiations with Washington.
After
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called Anthony Albanese and Italian
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a spokesperson for Mr Starmer said the
UK would "calmly continue with our preparatory work, rather than rush to
retaliate".
"While the global
economic landscape has shifted this week, it has been clear for a long
time that like-minded countries must maintain strong relationships and
dialogue to ensure our mutual security and maintain economic stability,"
a spokesperson for Mr Starmer said.
Earlier
on Friday, Ms Meloni said the 20 per cent tariff on European exports
were wrong but "not the catastrophe that some are making it out to be."
European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the global trade system
had problems but tariffs "will not fix it", before reiterating a desire
to negotiate with President Trump.
Asia hit hard by tariffs
Asian countries were hit particularly hard by this week's announcement by the US.
Goods
from Vietnam will face a 46 per cent levy, which threatens to decimate
footwear, electronics, textiles and seafood exports.
Donald Trump said Vietnam's leader To Lam has already reportedly offered to slash tariffs on US goods.
"Just
had a very productive call with To Lam, General Secretary of the
Communist Party of Vietnam, who told me that Vietnam wants to cut their
Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the US,"
he wrote on his Truth Social platform.
"I thanked him on behalf of our country, and said I look forward to a meeting in the near future."
Meanwhile,
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has flagged he's prepared to fly
to the US to meet Mr Trump to try and avoid the 26 per cent tariff on
goods from his country.
