Thursday 4 July 2024

Drawing the 'giga-goose': How to make palaeoart.

Extract from ABC News 

ABC News Homepage


When recent fossil evidence of an extinct Australian bird called Genyornis newtoni was published, one of the most eye-catching features was the art that went along with it.

The image (above) shows an old flightless creature dubbed "giga-goose" headed for a drink in a muddy lake by the light of a late afternoon ancient sun.

But this was not how the Flinders University team who discovered the fossils had originally expected the bird to look.

They had envisioned a "bright-eyed, goosey bird", but the group's palaeoartist, Jacob Blokland, ended up creating something which, by his own admission, looks "pretty wrinkly and crusty".

While some features in the image are artistic licence, much of the bird's appearance relies directly on the bones that were discovered, or educated guesses based on how related birds look.

So, should Genyornis newtoni look like a giant goose or a wrinkled old chook?

And what techniques are used to create one look or the other?

I visited Mr Blokland at his studio to see how giga-goose evolved from fossils to art.

What is palaeoart?

Palaeontological art or "palaeoart" has long been a favourite of kids who love dinosaurs — as it brings long-gone ancient creatures back to life.

Mr Blokland, who is a PhD student at Flinders researching a much smaller bird called a rail, has drawn dinosaurs and other ancient creatures since he was a child.

A man looking at a tablet. There's a large bird skull in the foreground of the image.
Mr Blokland uses a tablet to create digital palaeoart.(ABC Science: Jacinta Bowler)

When he went into research, continuing to draw creatures like the giga-goose felt like a good way to marry science and art.

"It's an extension of palaeontology," he says.

"It's a way of understanding things, approaching the truth."

When done well, he says palaeoart can provide the "best guess" of what an animal might have actually looked like.

"There's a saying in art: draw what you see, not what you think you see. I suppose that applies in palaeoart too. You have to draw what the fossils are telling you."

It's a lot of work to reconstruct how an extinct animal looked when it lived and breathed but Mr Blokland is up for the challenge.

"I enjoy the process of mapping all this stuff on — all the muscles, ligaments, the fats. Thinking about how the skin might have sagged in an area, for instance."

Starting with skull fragments

A large bird skeleton
Analysing the bones is the first part of creating palaeoart.(ABC Science: Jacinta Bowler)

Between 2013 and 2019, while searching for megafauna skeletons at Lake Callabonna in northern South Australia, researchers found a cache of six partial skull fragments from different specimens, along with other skeletal remains.

But even the most complete skulls were crushed and damaged, so Mr Blokland and his colleagues had to piece together the fragments and carefully analyse them to produce a picture of what a complete and undamaged skull might have looked like.

His first step was to create a basic sketch showing how the fragments fitted together — each colour noting a different specimen.

An early sketch drawing of the skull of a giant goose like bird
Different fragments of skull were brought together in one image.(Supplied: Jacob Blokland)

"I had them all out in front of me. Trying to make sense of all of them," he says.

"I think I understood the skull more by drawing it."

Once that was done, he started filling out the smaller details from the lumps and bumps of the skull fossils.

This work, along with the finished artwork, was done digitally on a tablet and took upwards of 80 hours to complete.

Putting flesh on bones

While his drawing of the basic skull shape was based mainly on the fossil fragments, more detective work was required for the next step: putting flesh on the bones.

A drawing of a large bird skull with muscles shaded on
Muscles were sketched onto the bones to provide context for the skin layer.(Supplied: Jacob Blokland)

Mr Blokland needed to add muscles and fat to the creature. To do this, the team looked to where the skull fragments were connected to muscles and created a 3D model of the "brain case" — the back section of the bird's skull, which holds the brain.

Mr Blokland also referred to a living relative of the bird called the "screamer" to work out how the muscles fitted on top of the bones. These South American birds are much smaller than the giga-goose but have similar head and ear structures.

A black and white goose like bird in one image next to an image of a grey-feathered wader with chicken beak
The magpie goose (left) and southern screamer (right) are Genyornis newtoni's closest living relatives.(Flickr: Magpie goose, cuatrok77, CC BY-SA 2.0 DEED and Southern screamer, Murray Foubister, CC BY-SA 2.0 DEED)

After the muscles came the skin and feathers.

For this, Mr Blokland turned to larger Australian birds like cassowaries and emus to understand what Genyornis might have looked like.

Both emus and cassowaries have shaggy light feathers on their bodies, and the cassowary has a featherless, wrinkly neck.

One of the reasons Genyornis would have had such features was to help keep it cool.

"Birds have a very fast metabolism," he says.

"If you're covered in feathers and you're 230 kilograms, you're going to overheat pretty jolly fast, especially in a hot Australian summer."

The beak and other facial elements also couldn't be determined by the fossil fragments, so Mr Blokland again looked to living relatives to understand what Genyornis's face might have looked like.

For the chapped beak, Mr Blokland added a pink colour to the top to signify blood vessels close to the surface. This occurs in both the magpie goose and the screamers.

A lifelike drawing of a large bird head with wrinkles and a grizzled beak
Genyornis newtoni's head may have had bright colouring.(Supplied: Jacob Blokland)

One important feature the giga-goose shares with the cassowary is a bony "casque" on its head. In the final art, this is shown as a yellow bump above its beak.

"We know this casque [is] unusual. It doesn't seem to have any anatomical benefit in terms of function," Mr Blokland says.

"So, maybe it was used in sound generation or sexual display … maybe both."

Extending the body

While the published artwork only shows the head and shoulders, Mr Blokland also sketched the full body of the bird based on other skeletal fossils of the giga-goose found at Lake Callabonna.

The body image has a number of interesting features.

The first is that there are no wings visible under the feathers. According to Mr Blokland, the tiny wing bones found indicate the bird's wings would have been just too small to poke out.

"Its wing was literally as long as a chicken's," he says.

"Guaranteed, you would not see those wings outside of the feathers."

While the wings might be small, the leg bones were huge.

A man in a flannel holding a comically large leg bone. He's surrounded by other bones and boxes.
Mr Blokland also analysed other bones, like this shin bone from Genyornis newtoni.(ABC Science: Jacinta Bowler)

Researchers also found other bones of Genyornis newtoni while finding the skull, and one of the biggest was the shin bone, which reached up to half a metre in length.

"That part of the leg becomes the drumstick," Mr Blokland says.

Setting the scene

The final piece of the palaeoart puzzle is placing the creature in an appropriate scene.

While not every palaeontology image includes a background, it is an opportunity to communicate more about where this animal existed.

The art of extinct animals with Peter Trusler. (ABC Education)

For example, according to Mr Blokland, the giga-goose would have lived in difficult times.

"Around 50,000 years ago, the big lakes in that region were starting to dry out," he says.

"You've got this mud under the surface that animals can walk into, but not get back out of."

"If you don't have anything to help you get out of it, I think it's all over."

One of the specimens of Genyornis newtoni the team found actually broke their leg in a fall before it died.

A drawing of a muddy lake bed
Lake Callabonna would be starting to dry out thousands of years ago.(Supplied: Jacob Blokland)

The scene Mr Blokland drew is set during sunrise or sunset, giving a darker tone to the piece. Adding to that are eucalyptus trees bending in towards the bird, while the water is an uncomfortable muddy shade.

The whole thing feels a bit ominous.

"I can't seem to break out of [that] particular style," Mr Blokland laughs.

And after spending months on the project, Mr Blokland is confident that his "old bull" of a bird is the current best guess for what Genyornis newtoni may have looked like.

While it might not be the bright-eyed goose the team originally imagined, the artwork ends up telling its own interesting story about the ancient bird.

"Like bulls, even though they eat plants, I wouldn't want to get on the wrong side of one," he says.

Want to know more about these ancient creatures? Catch the two-part program Megafauna: What Killed Australia's Giants? on ABC iview.

Booking.com faces criminal complaint over listings in illegal Israeli settlements.

Extract from ABC News 

ABC News Homepage


The views from the balcony of Igal Canaan's home look like they've been lifted from the pages of National Geographic.

Sprawling desert mountains stretch as far as the eye can see, cradled by clear blue skies, creating a serene moonscape panorama.

Mr Canaan markets the short-term holiday rental property as a "room with view" but there's a problem with the destination.

The property is in an Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank, making it illegal according to international law.

Human rights lawyers say that should get Mr Canaan's property and others like it banned from being advertised on platforms like Booking.com and are taking action against the company.

A drone view from above of a residential neighbourhood built on top of a mountain surrounded by arid land
Igal's property is in the Israeli settlement of Nofei Prat, one of many in the West Bank.(ABC News: Haidarr Jones)

Mr Canaan's rental properties are in the Israeli settlement of Nofei Prat, about 20 kilometres from Jerusalem.

He says it's a matter of opinion as to whether he is breaking international law.

"It's one interpretation of the international law, because by international law, it's completely illegal," he says.

"But we show it from our point of view. This area of what you call the West Bank, is Judea and Samaria, the original Israel … the mountains of Judea and the desert of Judea and Jerusalem and Samaria."

This is also how the Israeli government refers to the area where its law considers the settlements to be legal.

These settlements are spread throughout the Occupied West Bank and house more than an estimated half a million Israelis, who often enjoy substantially superior amenities and infrastructure compared to their Palestinian neighbours.

A map shows the West Bank territory with blue shading indicating Israeli settlements throughout
As of April 2024 there were more than 100 Israeli settlements throughout the Israeli-controlled area in the West Bank.(ABC News: Lucy Sweeney)

Lawyers from the European Legal Support Centre (ELSC), Palestinian human rights group Al-Haq, SOMO and The Rights Forum have filed a criminal complaint in the Netherlands, alleging Booking.com is profiteering from the commission of war crimes in the occupied Palestinian territory.

Booking.com was founded and is headquartered in Amsterdam, where Dutch law prohibits companies and individuals from profiteering from war crimes.

Legal officer Daan de Grefte from ELSC claims that Booking.com is taking profits from illegal Israeli settlements, including land stolen from the local Palestinian population.

"We think that the settlements in the occupied Palestinian territory are the result of war crimes, mainly two war crimes," he said.

"First, the unlawful appropriation of adversary property. And second, the transfer of civilians into occupied territory. Without those two war crimes, settlements could not have been established.

"So our argument is that any money derived from those settlements is also indirectly derived from those war crimes."

Several photo frames, some with blue background and yellow circle with numbers hung on a wall
Igal's properties are popular and are booked nearly every weekend.(ABC News: Haidarr Jones)

The group of lawyers has referred the case to the Dutch Public Prosecution Service, which is examining whether to lay criminal charges against Booking.com.

In the West Bank, Mr Canaan says his holiday properties are incredibly popular and are booked nearly every weekend, and throughout major holidays.

He says the main base of his visitors are from within Israel, but also advertises to international tourists on multiple online platforms.

"About 30 per cent of the whole are people coming from abroad by Booking.com, Airbnb and Hotels.com, these kinds of platforms," Mr Canaan said.

"Booking.com wants to do business with us as they like to do business with Palestinians or Arabs.

"They don't put their heads in who is right and who is wrong. They want to do business everywhere."

A man sitting at a desk using a compuer mouse with a screen in front of him showing a property
Igal lists his property on several online booking platforms.(ABC News: Haidarr Jones)

The human rights lawyers estimate there are around 70 active holiday property listings in the occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem.

Mr de Grefte said Booking.com also had a moral and ethical obligation not to profit from illegal Israeli settlements.

"Booking.com has committed to respecting certain human rights in its human rights statement, which was quite recently updated," he said.

"It very clearly says that it does not want to contribute to any adverse human rights impacts, especially on local communities in places where they operate.

"Well I think it's very clear that many very authoritative human rights organisations … have documented very, very extensively … that a company cannot be active in Israeli illegal settlements and still not contribute somehow to adverse human rights impacts."

On its website, Booking.com lists Mr Canaan's property, and others in the areas, as being located in the "Palestinian territory" inside and "Israeli settlement" but does not provide any description those settlements are considered illegal under international law.

A man wearing a blue shirt stands next to a small gate leading to a home with his elbow resting on the wooden beam
Igal's property attracts visitors from around the world.(ABC New: Haidarr Jones)

Booking.com did not answer specific questions from ABC News but said the company was monitoring the legal situation and taking the matter seriously.

"Our mission at Booking.com is to make it easier for everyone to experience the world and as such we believe it's up to travellers to decide where they want and need to go," a spokesperson said.

"If a particular region may be categorised as disputed or conflict affected, and as such may pose greater risks, we include information to help make sure travellers can make their own informed decisions, or at least check the official travel guidelines of their government as part of their decision making process."

Wednesday 3 July 2024

When it comes to power, solar could leave nuclear and everything else in the shade.

Extract from ABC News 

ABC News Homepage

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton might have been hoping for an endorsement from economists for his plan to take Australian nuclear.

He shouldn't expect one from The Economist.

The Economist is a British weekly news magazine that has reported on economic thinking and served as a place for economists to exchange views since 1843.

By chance, just three days after Dutton announced plans for seven nuclear reactors he said would usher in a new era of economic prosperity for Australia, The Economist produced a special issue, titled Dawn of the Solar Age.

The front cover of The Economist magazine featuring a solar panel and the headline, 'Dawn of the solar age'
The June 22 special solar edition of The Economist.(Supplied: The Economist)

Whereas nuclear power is barely growing, and is shrinking as a proportion of global power output, The Economist reported solar power was growing so quickly it was set to become the biggest source of electricity on the planet by the mid-2030s.

By the 2040s — within this next generation — it could be the world's largest source of energy of any kind, overtaking fossil fuels like coal and oil.

Solar's off-the-charts global growth

Installed solar capacity is doubling every three years, meaning it has grown tenfold in the past 10 years. The Economist says the next tenfold increase will be the equivalent of multiplying the world's entire fleet of nuclear reactors by eight, in less time than it usually takes to build one of them.

To give an idea of the standing start the industry has grown from, The Economist reports that in 2004 it took the world an entire year to install 1 gigawatt of solar capacity (about enough to power a small city). This year, that's expected to happen every day.

Energy experts didn't see it coming. The Economist includes a chart showing that every single forecast the International Energy Agency has made for the growth of solar since 2009 has been wrong. What the agency said would take 20 years happened in only six.

The forecasts closest to the mark were made by Greenpeace — "environmentalists poo-pooed for zealotry and economic illiteracy" — but even those forecasts turned out to be woefully short of what actually happened.

A graph showing that actual installations have been more than 3 x higher than IEA forecasts
Installations for 2024 are an estimate.(Supplied: The Economist, IEA, Energy Institute, BloombergNEF
)

And the cost of solar cells has been plunging in the way that costs usually do when emerging technologies become mainstream.

The Economist describes the process this way:

"As the cumulative production of a manufactured good increases, costs go down. As costs go down, demand goes up. As demand goes up, production increases — and costs go down further."

Normally, this can't continue. In earlier energy transitions — from wood to coal, coal to oil, and oil to gas — it became increasingly expensive to find fuel.

But the main ingredient in solar cells (apart from energy) is sand, for the silicon and the glass. This is not only the case in China, which makes the bulk of the world's solar cells, but also in India, which is short of power, blessed by sun and sand, and which is manufacturing and installing solar cells at a prodigious rate.

Solar easy, batteries more difficult

Batteries are more difficult. They are needed to make solar useful after dark and they require so-called critical minerals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt (which Australia has in abundance).

But the efficiency of batteries is soaring and the price is plummeting, meaning that on one estimate the cost of a kilowatt-hour of battery storage has fallen by 99 per cent over the past 30 years.

In the United States, plans are being drawn up to use batteries to transport solar energy as well as store it. Why build high-voltage transmission cables when you can use train carriages full of batteries to move power from the remote sunny places that collect it to the cities that need it?

Solar's step change

The International Energy Agency is suddenly optimistic. Its latest assessment, released in January, says last year saw a "step change" in renewable power, driven by China's adoption of solar. In 2023, China installed as much solar capacity as the entire world did in 2022.

The world is on track to install more renewable capacity over the next five years than has ever been installed over the past 100 years, something the agency says still won't be enough to get to net-zero emissions by 2050.

That would need renewables capacity to triple over the next five years, instead of more than doubling.

Oxford University energy specialist Rupert Way has modelled a "fast transition" scenario, in which the costs of solar and other new technologies keep falling as they have been rather than as the International Energy Agency expects.

He finds that by 2060, solar will be by far the world's biggest source of energy, exceeding wind and green hydrogen and leaving nuclear with an infinitesimally tiny role.

In Australia, solar is pushing down prices

Australia's energy market operator says record generation from grid-scale renewables and rooftop solar is pushing down wholesale electricity prices.

South Australia and Tasmania are the states that rely on renewables the most. They are the two states with the lowest wholesale electricity prices outside Victoria, whose prices are very low because of its reliance on brown coal.

It is price — rather than the environment — that most interests The Economist. It says when the price of something gets low, people use much, much more of it.

As energy gets really copious and all but free, it will be used for things we can't even imagine today. The Economist said to bet against that was to bet against capitalism.

Peter Martin is visiting fellow at the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University. This article originally appeared on The Conversation.