Analysis
The opening shot fired on FBI director James Comey has motivated retaliation among some in the vast US intelligence community, the State Department, sections of the Department of Justice and many of the 35,000 officers and investigators within the FBI.
Coupled with an already existing breakdown in relations with the White House, angered security operatives have chosen to leak truth to power rather than try to speak it.
No-one within the Trump administration can possibly know where this will end — the only certainty they can have is that they're surrounded by officials with an awesome capacity to disrupt, disclose and disarm the presidency from concealed positions.
The keepers and collectors of America's national secrets come armed with documents, cameras, microphones and contact books containing trusted media and congressional phone numbers — a formidable arsenal against any opponent.
To defend himself, Mr Trump has the power of office, the authority to fire on suspicion and a Twitter account with 30 million followers.
To his great frustration, none of these has yet had the power to stop the steady flow of leaks against him.
Unmasking Michael Flynn, Carter Page, Paul Manafort and others has been very slow-going for all Congressional committees investigating.
So, when the President had Russia's Foreign Minister and its very active ambassador to Washington into the Oval Office last week, it was always going to pique the curiosity of those with special access to information about what was discussed.
Within days they obtained details of the meeting, pushed it to the Washington Post and then watched the White House lurch into another chaotic exercise in damage control.
Although the account was routinely disputed at first, hours later the President largely confirmed its authenticity via Twitter acknowledging he did "share with Russia … facts pertaining to terrorism and airline flight safety".
Even if Mr Trump did not reveal classified information or the source who'd provided intelligence on an apparent Islamic State threat to turn onboard laptop computers into in-flight bombs, the speed and broad accuracy of the leak was enough to confirm the White House's worst fears that the President is being monitored and openly challenged.
Spokesman Sean Spicer has been deliberately vague on what records are captured and kept in the White House, but the suggestion some may exist has set off a scramble among Republicans and Democrats eager to finally grasp evidence of pro-Russian appeasement that's eluded their inquiries so far.
Like many lawyers responsible for handling sensitive information, Mr Comey seems to have developed a habit of documenting his conversations.
If there is a memo recording any request by the President in February to wind up the FBI investigation into the campaign's Russian connections (denied by the White House), it is certain to be one of many Mr Comey will have written in his dealings with this administration.
If the director had asked for more resources to complete the Russia investigation (denied by the Department of Justice), it would no doubt be documented too.
Factor in the threat of retaliatory leaks by the President:
— and it all makes for a prolonged and messy battle of wills which would embroil the White House for months and inevitably tarnish someone — either the President, Mr Comey, other individuals or institutions of state.
That's why forces in Congress are already threatening subpoenas to get any documentary or electronic material that might shed light on the real factors behind Mr Comey's dismissal.
Few beyond hardcore Democrat supporters are engaged in open conversation about impeachment, but many more months of trench warfare with the national security establishment will test the patience of all in Congress — especially tetchy Republicans.
But when secret intelligence is flung around as ammunition in a domestic power play, it's viewed with deadly seriousness abroad.
There is at least a hint Israeli information was shared with Sergei Lavrov by Mr Trump, which if true, has potential to disrupt a vital source of security information from the Middle East.
Australia's intelligence community — as members of the trusted "Five Eyes" grouping — has grappled with multiple leaks out of the US, starting with Edward Snowden and continuing through to the Prime Minister's phone conversation with Mr Trump in January.
When questioned about developments in Washington this last week, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull remained publicly unfazed.
"We have a very close intelligence-sharing relationship with the US and our other 'Five-Eyes' partners. It is as close as it possibly could be, but I won't comment on those press [reports]," he politely parried.
Others in Canberra's intelligence community will watch on with greater trepidation.
After all, most of them were taught that high-quality, secret, information is a weapon states need to use to prevent wars — not start them.
Updated
One of Donald Trump's deepest laments about modern America is that it doesn't win wars anymore.
He
may not yet realise it, but the US President has now hurled himself
headlong into a war with Washington's national security establishment — a
war in which powerful forces and the odds of victory are both stacked
against him.
The opening shot fired on FBI director James Comey has motivated retaliation among some in the vast US intelligence community, the State Department, sections of the Department of Justice and many of the 35,000 officers and investigators within the FBI.
Coupled with an already existing breakdown in relations with the White House, angered security operatives have chosen to leak truth to power rather than try to speak it.
No-one within the Trump administration can possibly know where this will end — the only certainty they can have is that they're surrounded by officials with an awesome capacity to disrupt, disclose and disarm the presidency from concealed positions.
The keepers and collectors of America's national secrets come armed with documents, cameras, microphones and contact books containing trusted media and congressional phone numbers — a formidable arsenal against any opponent.
To defend himself, Mr Trump has the power of office, the authority to fire on suspicion and a Twitter account with 30 million followers.
To his great frustration, none of these has yet had the power to stop the steady flow of leaks against him.
I have been
asking Director Comey & others, from the beginning of my
administration, to find the LEAKERS in the intelligence community.....
Those Russians…
Right from the start of his presidency in January, anti-Trump forces — including conservative Republicans — have craved a better understanding of connections between the billionaire's 2016 campaign team and Russian interests.Unmasking Michael Flynn, Carter Page, Paul Manafort and others has been very slow-going for all Congressional committees investigating.
So, when the President had Russia's Foreign Minister and its very active ambassador to Washington into the Oval Office last week, it was always going to pique the curiosity of those with special access to information about what was discussed.
Photo:
Donald Trump met with Sergei Lavrov (left) and Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak at the White House last week. (AP: Russian Foreign Ministry)
Within days they obtained details of the meeting, pushed it to the Washington Post and then watched the White House lurch into another chaotic exercise in damage control.
Although the account was routinely disputed at first, hours later the President largely confirmed its authenticity via Twitter acknowledging he did "share with Russia … facts pertaining to terrorism and airline flight safety".
Even if Mr Trump did not reveal classified information or the source who'd provided intelligence on an apparent Islamic State threat to turn onboard laptop computers into in-flight bombs, the speed and broad accuracy of the leak was enough to confirm the White House's worst fears that the President is being monitored and openly challenged.
Spokesman Sean Spicer has been deliberately vague on what records are captured and kept in the White House, but the suggestion some may exist has set off a scramble among Republicans and Democrats eager to finally grasp evidence of pro-Russian appeasement that's eluded their inquiries so far.
What's Comey Got?
If unseen opponents within what some call the "deep state" of the US bureaucracy aren't disruptive enough, the brooding presence of an ousted FBI director only spells more trouble — and it's barely begun.Like many lawyers responsible for handling sensitive information, Mr Comey seems to have developed a habit of documenting his conversations.
If there is a memo recording any request by the President in February to wind up the FBI investigation into the campaign's Russian connections (denied by the White House), it is certain to be one of many Mr Comey will have written in his dealings with this administration.
If the director had asked for more resources to complete the Russia investigation (denied by the Department of Justice), it would no doubt be documented too.
Factor in the threat of retaliatory leaks by the President:
James Comey better hope that there are no "tapes" of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!
— and it all makes for a prolonged and messy battle of wills which would embroil the White House for months and inevitably tarnish someone — either the President, Mr Comey, other individuals or institutions of state.
That's why forces in Congress are already threatening subpoenas to get any documentary or electronic material that might shed light on the real factors behind Mr Comey's dismissal.
Few beyond hardcore Democrat supporters are engaged in open conversation about impeachment, but many more months of trench warfare with the national security establishment will test the patience of all in Congress — especially tetchy Republicans.
Five Eyes — and more — look for resolution
Palace intrigue and political drama travels fast and well beyond Washington to the capitals of the world.But when secret intelligence is flung around as ammunition in a domestic power play, it's viewed with deadly seriousness abroad.
There is at least a hint Israeli information was shared with Sergei Lavrov by Mr Trump, which if true, has potential to disrupt a vital source of security information from the Middle East.
Australia's intelligence community — as members of the trusted "Five Eyes" grouping — has grappled with multiple leaks out of the US, starting with Edward Snowden and continuing through to the Prime Minister's phone conversation with Mr Trump in January.
When questioned about developments in Washington this last week, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull remained publicly unfazed.
"We have a very close intelligence-sharing relationship with the US and our other 'Five-Eyes' partners. It is as close as it possibly could be, but I won't comment on those press [reports]," he politely parried.
Others in Canberra's intelligence community will watch on with greater trepidation.
After all, most of them were taught that high-quality, secret, information is a weapon states need to use to prevent wars — not start them.
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