Extract from ABC News
With the killing in Iran of Hamas's top political leader Ismael Haniyeh, the possibility that all key players have wanted to avoid — a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah — is now closer than ever.
Until now, the United States has felt the backlash to its support of Israel's war in Gaza both internationally and inside America.
Israel has not wanted a full-scale war as it knows very well that Hezbollah is a seriously more formidable fighting machine than Hamas.
In 2006, Israel had a war with Hezbollah. It did not go well. An official Israeli report — the Winograd commission report — later made clear that Israel did not win that war. It brought home to Israel several key factors: firstly, the terrain in southern Lebanon is far tougher to fight a war in than the flat and tiny enclave that is Gaza.
Furthermore, Hezbollah is trained, resourced and armed by Iran. While some Iranian missiles make their way to Hamas, an Israeli and Egyptian blockade have reduced the amount of weapons entering Gaza.
But with Hezbollah, there is no such constraint. Hezbollah controls Beirut's international airport. This means that plane-loads of weapons can fly from Iran anytime. And they do.
In addition, the fighters of Hezbollah are much more honed and professional. One of the reasons Syria's Bashar al-Assad was able to crush his internal dissent, fuelled in part by Sunni Muslim militia groups, is that Hezbollah's Shia Muslim fighters flooded Syria.
They helped Assad to victory, and in doing so gained invaluable combat experience.
And finally, Hezbollah's arsenal of missiles is formidable. Reliable intelligence estimates put the number of Hezbollah's missiles in southern Lebanon — near the Israeli border — at between 120,000 and 150,000.
As good as Israel's state-of-the-art Iron Dome system is, it could not cope with 20,000 or 30,000 missiles being fired simultaneously.
And Hezbollah's missiles are also, generally, more lethal than those fired by Hamas. Hezbollah is known to be heavily stocked with Iranian-made Farj missiles, which have a range much greater than most of those used by Hamas.
The reality — which Israeli intelligence experts have confirmed to me only recently — is that Hezbollah's arsenal of missiles can reach every city in Israel.
The two developments that escalated tensions
But Hezbollah until now has also not wanted a full-scale war. Lebanon's economy is on its knees, having been battered by the huge number of refugees from Syria, COVID and the explosion at the port of Beirut which devastated confidence in the country.
Lebanese people have heard threats from Israel about "doing to Beirut what we've done to Gaza" and know full well the military capability of Israel.
But two new developments have now dramatically escalated already existing tensions and mean that logic and self-interest may be overcome by zealotry and fanaticism.
The first was the targeting in Beirut of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr.
Israel claims that they have killed him and there is as yet no confirmation. Shukr was the senior military adviser to Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah. Hezbollah will feel they have to be seen to dramatically respond to this targeting.
And then came the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Haniyeh was in Iran to attend the inauguration of new Iranian president, Masud Pezeshkian. And the day before he was killed, he met Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
Haniyeh lived in Qatar, rather than Gaza, with the blessing of the US who realised that he was safer in Doha than Gaza. For the US, it was useful to have access to Hamas through Haniyeh.
In fact, the Israeli hostages released from Gaza were released following deals negotiated between the US, Egypt, Qatar and Haniyeh.
But clearly he had none of the "Qatari protection" in Iran.
Iran's leader is suddenly more powerful
The key dynamic now will be Iran's response. Hezbollah will not declare a full war without Tehran giving approval.
A full war would be catastrophic for Israel, Lebanon and Iran.
In military terms, Israel, with Washington's help, will probably "win" such a full-scale war. But thousands of civilians will die, and all three countries will be severely damaged.
All eyes should now be on Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
Suddenly, he is one of the most powerful men in the world.
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