Monday, 30 September 2024

Up to one million people displaced in Lebanon as Israel continues air attacks on Hezbollah targets.

Extract from ABC News

A bundle of bright backpacks sits on the ground with a child lying down in the middle in front of a group of huddled people

Israeli airstrikes have forced hundreds of thousands to flee from across Lebanon's south and within the capital of Beirut. ( AP: Bilal Hussein)

In short:

Up to a fifth of Lebanon's population have been forced to flee their homes as a result of intense Israeli air strikes targeting militant group Hezbollah. 

The country's prime minister said Lebanon was experiencing what could be its largest wave of displacement ever.

What's next?

The US has said all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel is "not the way", despite stressing ironclad support for the Israeli government.

Almost one million people are feared to be displaced across Lebanon as a result of Israeli attacks across the country targeting Hezbollah, the Lebanese prime minister has warned.

On Sunday, Lebanon's caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati said his country could be witnessing its largest wave of displacement ever amid intense Israeli air strikes.

"It is the largest displacement movement that may have happened … in Lebanon," Mr Mikati told reporters.

Up to one million people could be forced to flee, he said, which would equate to roughly one-fifth of Lebanon's population. 

The caretaker leader said in his address Lebanon had "no option but the diplomatic option" to try and end Israel's escalating attacks that have killed hundreds of Lebanese civilians alongside Hezbollah soldiers.

'All-out war not the way': US

Israel will not be able to safely get people back into their homes in the north of the country by waging an all-out war with Hezbollah or Iran, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said on Sunday.

Israel's stated goal of its ongoing bombardment of Lebanon is to make its northern areas safe from Hezbollah rocket fire and allow thousands of displaced residents to return.

"An all-out war with Hezbollah, certainly with Iran, is not the way to do that. If you want to get those folks back home safely and sustainably, we believe that a diplomatic path is the right course," Kirby told CNN. 

The US is Israel's longtime ally and biggest arms supplier.

The US is watching to see what Hezbollah does to try to fill its leadership vacuum "and is continuing to talk to the Israelis about what the right next steps are", he said.

"We have made no bones about the fact that we don't necessarily see the tactical execution the same way that they do in terms of protection [of civilians]," said Kirby, adding that US support for Israel's security was ironclad.

More Hezbollah figures killed in Israeli attacks

Israel struck multiple targets in Lebanon on Sunday with another round of air strikes targeting Hezbollah, days after the militant group's leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in Beirut.

Nasrallah's body was recovered on Sunday from the site of the massive Israeli air attack that killed the longstanding Hezbollah commander two days earlier, sources told Reuters.

It was a major blow to Hezbollah and to Iran, removing an influential ally who helped build Hezbollah into the linchpin of Tehran's network of allied groups in the Arab world.

The Israeli military said the air force had struck dozens of Hezbollah targets across Lebanon including weapons facilities and rocket launcher bases.

It also said it had killed a prominent Hezbollah leader, Nabil Kaouk, the latest in a string of Israeli strikes that have targeted many of the group's most senior figures. 

Hezbollah has not yet commented on Kaouk's fate but its supporters have been posting mourning messages for him since Saturday.

Two men look over a giant gaping hole of a bombed building with wiring and rubble everywhere

Israeli air strikes have pounded southern areas of Lebanon's capital Beirut. (AP: Hussein Malla)

The Israeli navy said it had intercepted a projectile approaching Israel from the area of the Red Sea and another eight projectiles coming from Lebanon had fallen in open areas.

Hezbollah said it would keep fighting Israel and has continued to fire rockets at it, including a salvo on Sunday morning.

With Lebanon already mired in political and economic crisis, the escalation has pushed the country to the brink, as the Israeli bombardment has killed over 700 people in a week, according to health ministry figures.

In Beirut, some displaced families spent the night on the benches at Zaitunay Bay, a string of restaurants and cafes on Beirut's waterfront. 

On Sunday morning, families with nothing more than a duffle bag of clothes had rolled out mats to sleep on and made tea for themselves.

"You won't be able to destroy us, whatever you do, however much you bomb, however much you displace people — we will stay here," said Francoise Azori, a Beirut resident jogging through the area.

"We won't leave. This is our country and we're staying."

The UN World Food Programme began an emergency operation to provide food for those affected by the conflict.

Iran vows revenge for commander

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that the killing by Israel of an Iranian Revolutionary Guards deputy commander in Beirut was a "horrible crime" that would not go unanswered.

Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan was killed in the Israeli strikes on Beirut on Friday in which Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah also died.

"There is no doubt that this horrible crime committed by the Zionist regime [Israel] will not go unanswered," Mr Araqchi said in a statement.

Reuters/AFP

Further escalation with Hezbollah may soon be what cracks Israel's mighty Iron Dome.

 Extract from ABC News

Streaks of light from rockets over the night sky of a city.

The Iron Dome air defence system fires to intercept rockets, as seen from Haifa in northern Israel. (AP: Baz Ratner)

For years, Israel has relied on the invisible shield of its sophisticated Iron Dome air defence system to protect its citizens.

Since it became operational in 2011, it has intercepted thousands of missiles, rockets and drones from Hamas and Hezbollah, according to the Israeli military.

But now experts say the mighty dome could be put to the test like never before.

Israel and Hezbollah are locked in their most intense round of fighting in decades, teetering on the brink of all-out war.

Israel has been unleashing air strikes across Lebanon, killing more than 600 people and injuring thousands more, according to official government updates from Beirut.

The prime minister's office said the strikes would continue until the 60,000 citizens evacuated from northern Israel due to Hezbollah's bombings could return home.

A villages sitting on a ridge is engulfed in grey smoke from air strikes

Israel said it bombarded more than 1,600 locations across Lebanon as it targeted Hezbollah. (AP: Hussein Malla)

But at any moment, Hezbollah could retaliate with powerful missiles and swarms of rockets capable of overwhelming Israel's air defence systems.

The Lebanon-based militant group is widely deemed the most powerful member of the Iran-backed network, known as the Axis of Resistance.

Experts say if Hezbollah escalates its attacks, it will be a game of numbers between the two sides.

And it's uncertain whether Israel's Iron Dome will be able to "keep up".

Cracking the Iron Dome

The Iron Dome is the key tool in Israel's air defence network.

It was designed to fend off short-range rocket and missile attacks from neighbouring militant groups.

The system uses sophisticated radars to detect incoming projectiles, then fires missiles to destroy them in mid-air.

Recent videos have shown the system in action, with streaks of light illuminating the skies before rockets burst into flares.

There are 10 Iron Dome batteries strategically placed across the country, providing city-sized coverage against rockets with ranges of between 4 and 70 km.

The Iron Dome intercepts missiles fired from Lebanon over Israel's northern city of Haifa.

Marcus Hellyer from Strategic Analysis Australia said Israel had created a situation where it could defend itself without needing to invade Lebanon and Gaza, where Hezbollah and Hamas are respectively based.

That strategy had been working well, he added.

But since October 7, everything has changed.

Hamas managed to saturate the Iron Dome with thousands of rockets and drones, while gunmen stormed into southern Israel for a series of deadly attacks.

"The October 2023 attack by Hamas over the Israeli border kind of blew that paradigm out," Dr Hellyer said.

"What we're seeing at the moment with Hezbollah is a similar kind of narrative."

A graphic showing how the Iron Dome works.

Israel's Iron Dome air defence system was developed to respond to threats from Gaza and southern Lebanon. (ABC News graphic: Jarrod Fankhauser)

Last week, Israel's military chief said its troops were preparing for a ground offensive in Lebanon.

And despite Western calls for a ceasefire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would continue fighting Hezbollah with "full force".

Strikes edge deeper into Israel

Hamas militants killed about 1,200 people during the October 7 attacks on Israel, and took at least 250 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli authorities.

Israel responded by invading the Gaza Strip in an ongoing conflict that has claimed the lives of more than 40,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry.

Since the Israel-Hamas war broke out, Hezbollah has been launching attacks into northern Israel.

And last Wednesday, it started intensifying its strikes, edging deeper into the country.

Sirens have been ringing out across highly populated cities in northern Israel.

And in a rare attack last Wednesday, a missile fired from Lebanon came flying towards the economic centre, Tel Aviv.

Israel said it intercepted most of the hundreds of projectiles fired from Lebanon.

But damage from a rocket strike was reported in the seaside city of Haifa, the cultural and economic capital of northern Israel.

Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system fires to intercept a rocket launched from the Gaza Strip towards Israel.

Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system fires to intercept a rocket launched from the Gaza Strip towards Israel in May, 2023. (AP: Ohad Zwigenberg)

Stephan Fruehling from the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre said the Iron Dome was very effective, but no system was perfect.

"Some missiles will always get through," he said.

"It's a game of numbers."

And even if the Iron Dome intercepts rockets, whatever is shot down from the sky is going to fall somewhere.

People on a street in a seaside areas run towards a bomb shelter as a siren warning of incoming rockets launched.

People run towards a bomb shelter as a siren warning of incoming rockets launched from the Gaza Strip towards Israel sounds. (Reuters: Amir Cohen)

Enough rockets to 'swamp' systems

One of Hezbollah's key strengths is its large supply of missile systems and battlefield rockets, many of which are supplied by Iran.

It is believed to have stockpiles of upwards of 200,000 rockets, according to a March report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Dr Hellyer said Hezbollah had been stockpiling enough rockets to compromise the Iron Dome and cause damage to Israel's cities and infrastructure.

And many of them were cheap, unguided rockets that could hit anywhere.

"If Hezbollah fires off a whole bunch of rockets, they will swamp Israeli's missile defence system and some will inevitably get through," he said.

"If you aim them into the cities, like Tel Aviv, just by random effect, they will sooner or later start landing on buildings and causing casualties."

An explosion is seen midair as Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts a rocket.

An explosion is seen mid-air as Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts a rocket. (Reuters: Amir Cohen)

More powerful missiles on hand

Hezbollah says it had recently begun using Fadi 1 and Fadi 2 missiles for the first time in the conflict.

The more powerful Iranian short-range missiles are equipped with about 500 kg of explosives, with the ability to launch at a range of about 190 km.

The group said it had also used a ballistic missile for the first time, launching a Qader-1 to target the headquarters of the Mossad intelligence agency in Tel Aviv.

The missile was intercepted by the IDF, but military analysts say it was an indication of Hezbollah's capacity.

A squiggly line of white smoke across a blue sky.

Israel's military said on Wednesday it intercepted a missile fired from Lebanon. (Reuters: Amir Cohen)

Professor Fruehling said even if more powerful missiles were destroyed by air defences, they could inflict a lot of damage due to their size.

"If you have fairly powerful missiles, you can shoot them at a very high trajectory so they come very fast and almost vertical," Professor Fruehling said.

"In which case, you may destroy the missile warhead [but] there will still be kinetic damage."

Hezbollah also has access to longer-range missiles, Professor Fruehling says.

The IDF has justified its deadly strikes across Lebanon by claiming it was targeting weapons storage facilities and infrastructure used by Hezbollah.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel was attacking the group so it could return its displaced citizens to the north.

"We are continuing to strike Hezbollah with full force, and we will not stop until we reach all our goals — chief among them, the return of the residents of the north securely to their homes," he told reporters ahead of a UN general address last week.

Beirut blast

People stand next to a destroyed car, at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut's southern suburbs. (Reuters: Amr Abdallah Dals)

Escalation by numbers

Hezbollah has signalled it is not seeking to widen the conflict, but has warned it has used only a small part of its capabilities so far.

Professor Fruehling said so far, Hezbollah's attacks were causing "less destruction, more disruption", but it was hard to know if they were deliberately withholding or not.

One of the advantages of the Iron Dome is that it uses cheap missiles, so Israel was likely to have a lot of them in stock, Dr Hellyer said.

But if Hezbollah was showing restraint and strikes escalated, Israel may end up in trouble.

"Hezbollah has had plenty of time to stockpile thousands and thousands of rockets," he said.

"So the question is, 'how many Iron Dome missiles does Israel have?' They'll have a lot, but you wonder how long they can keep up."

Three Hezbolah flags fluttering above a poster depicting Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah

Hezbollah flags flutter atop a poster depicting Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah near the border with Israel. (Reuters: Aziz Taher)

If Iran gets directly involved, then threats will become larger and more significant.

In April, Iran launched an attack on Israel, unlike anything the world had seen.

Iran is also expected to keep resupplying Hezbollah "quickly", according to a report by the CSIS.

It added that Iran's relationships with Syria would facilitate the weapons pipeline.

Saturday, 28 September 2024

‘Clear timeline’ for Palestinian statehood needed: Penny Wong escalates language in UN speech.

Extract from  The Guardian

Penny Wong says she shares frustration of ‘great majority of countries’ about a lack of progress to recognise a Palestinian state.

Foreign affairs and defence correspondent
Fri 27 Sep 2024 22.00 AEST

Australia has suggested the world should set “a clear timeline for the international declaration of Palestinian statehood” in a sign of increasing frustration about the stalled peace process.

The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, will float the idea in a speech to the UN general assembly in New York on Saturday Australian time (Friday US time). Benjamin Netanyahu was also due to address the gathering amid mounting concern about an escalating regional war.

Wong will tell the general assembly that “every country in this room” must abide by the rules of war, and Israel “must comply with the binding orders of the international court of justice”, according to speech remarks distributed to media in advance.

Wong will say the Hamas-led attacks on Israel nearly one year ago “cannot and should not be justified” and the group must release all Israeli hostages.

But she will say 11,000 Palestinian children have been killed and two million people in Gaza face acute food insecurity in the resulting war. “This must end,” Wong will say.

“All lives have equal value.”

One of the most significant parts of Wong’s speech is her offer for Australia to “contribute to new ways to break the cycle of conflict”.

She will say Australia “shares the frustration of the great majority of countries” about a lack of progress, more than 77 years after UN general assembly resolution 181 outlined “a plan for two states side by side”.

Israel seized the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip in the 1967 war and most countries, including Australia, consider these to be occupied Palestinian territories.

Wong will say Palestinian statehood was “long held out as the promise at the end of a peace process that has ground to a halt”.

Wong will remind diplomats that Australia voted in May to express support for the Palestinian delegation’s aspirations for full UN membership and has also imposed sanctions on Israeli extremist settlers.

But she will argue actions by individual countries alone are not making a real difference. Palestine is already recognised as a state by more than 140 UN member states, including Spain, Norway and Ireland, which took the step in May this year.

Since April, Wong has indicated Australia no longer sees recognition of Palestine as the step taken only at the end of a peace process, but an action that might help kickstart progress.

“The international community – including the security council – must work together to pave a path to lasting peace,” Wong will say in her speech.

“Australia wants to engage on new ways to build momentum, including the role of the UN security council in setting a pathway for two states, with a clear timeline for the international declaration of Palestinian statehood.”

Wong will not spell out what date should be set for such a deadline, but the comments represent a step up in her language about the need for a circuit breaker.

It would likely be difficult to secure a binding resolution of the UN security council, as the US has used its veto power several times in defence of Israel’s position over the past year.

But it would not be unprecedented for the US to abstain, as it did in December 2016 when Barack Obama’s administration refused to veto a landmark resolution demanding a halt to all Israeli settlement in the occupied Palestinian territories.

Netanyahu said in January he would “not compromise on full Israeli security control of all territory west of the Jordan River”.

That message was reinforced by Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, who said in June he saw it as his “life’s mission” to “thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state”.

Smotrich said he was establishing “facts on the ground in order to make Judea and Samaria [the West Bank] an integral part of the state of Israel”.

Wong will argue a two-state solution would “strengthen the forces for peace across the region and undermine extremism”, while reiterating that Israel’s security must not be threatened and “there can be no role for terrorists”.

In wider remarks, Wong will say the UN is meeting at a time when “so much of the human family [is] enshrouded in darkness” including Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar, Yemen, Gaza and Lebanon.

Wong will say differences should be managed through dialogue and following rules “not simply by force or raw power”. She will say that is why Australia has “consistently pressed China on peace and stability in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait”.

Wong will also condemn the Taliban for having “erased women from Afghanistan’s self-portrait” and effectively halving the country’s potential.

Dr Karl Kruszelnicki: ‘Having been beaten unconscious really changes your life’

Extract from The Guardian

Walk with ...

Dr Karl Kruszelnicki at his home in Maroubra – ‘the best part of Sydney’. Photograph: Carly Earl/The Guardian

Australia’s favourite doctor-scientist-engineer talks recreational drugs, forgiveness and his extraordinary life.

Sat 28 Sep 2024 01.00 AEST

Dr Karl Kruszelnicki has a visceral response when I tell him I’ve just finished reading his 400-page memoir.

“All of it?” he gasps. “Oh my god, I’m sorry.”

Kruszelnicki has written, by his count, no fewer than 48 books. The others have all been upbeat explorations of how stuff works, with punny titles including 50 Shades of Grey Matter (about our brains) and Game of Knowns: Science Is Coming (the year was 2014 and Game of Thrones mania was a widespread illness). He knows scientific topics inside out, thanks to his time as a physicist and then a medical doctor. And he’s comfortable breaking down complex matters and explaining them simply, a skill honed across his decades-long tenure as a presenter on Triple J.

An assortment of art on a wall
Paintings are hung on just about every available inch of wall space at the home, where the Kruszelnicki family has lived since the early 2000s. Photograph: Carly Earl/The Guardian

But Kruszelnicki’s latest publication is the story of his life – and writing that, he says, made him feel very awkward.

“The publisher wanted it, I didn’t,” he says. “They snuck a clause into the contract saying I owed them … a memoir. I managed to fight them for three years.”

Rocks, shells – and a meteorite in an upcycled salsa jar
Rocks, shells – and a meteorite in an upcycled salsa jar. Photograph: Carly Earl/The Guardian

We were meant to be talking about his new book while taking a stroll along the coast but I woke up this morning with blocked ears and no voice. I contacted Kruszelnicki asking to reschedule but he had another idea – why not just come to his house instead, where I can ask questions at whisper-level with a mug of ginger tea in hand?

It’s an unusually generous offer from an interview subject and I arrive a few hours later at Kruszelnicki’s home in the Sydney suburb of Maroubra, face mask on and curiosity piqued. And so we walk through his rambling two-storey house as colourful as his personality. There’s a rainbow painted up the stairs (“Isn’t it amazing that you can just paint a rainbow and it enriches your life?”) and paintings hung on just about every available inch of wall space (“Without art, what’s the point?”). There are two pirate flags flapping in the wind outside. On one shelf there’s a small meteorite in an upcycled salsa jar. “That’s my meteorite,” he says but, before I can ask him more about it, we’re whisked on to the next thing.

Dr Karl sits in an open window
‘I’m not particularly smart … but I am very well educated.’ Photograph: Carly Earl/The Guardian

Kruszelnicki moves a mile a minute, speaking enthusiastically about the topics that excite him – prompted or not. A question about recreational drugs somehow ends up with him talking about calcium atoms in the human body. One about the process of his writing his memoir swerves to his thoughts on nuclear war. When I ask whether he thinks Sydney has become better or worse during his 50-odd years here it sparks a seven-minute digression into developers, how cold Australian houses are in winter, and criticism of a particularly well-known property group whose shoddy practices he says I should investigate and expose.

His sunny, no-nonsense take on the machinations of science and the human body are never far from our conversation. At one point he tells me it sounds as though I have an upper respiratory infection – better than a lower respiratory infection, the latter of which is potentially deadly.

“That’s good,” I respond. “I’m not dying –,”

“No, you are,” Kruszelnicki interrupts earnestly. “We’re all dying. Just not right now, today.”

Before eventually convincing his family to relocate here in the early 2000s, Kruszelnicki had wanted to move to Maroubra for years – it is, he says, “the best part of Sydney”. He’d discovered the area during his years as a cab driver and then again while working as children’s doctor at the nearby Prince Henry hospital. Those are two of the varied jobs he writes about A Periodic Table: My Sciencey Memoir, which begins with Kruszelnicki arriving in Australia in the 1950s, the young child of two Holocaust survivors.

A pirate flag
Kruszelnicki lived rent-free for eight years in squats during his time as a self-described hippy. Photograph: Carly Earl/The Guardian

As his book tells it, Kruszelnicki has had one hell of a life. On top of his time as a cabby and a doctor, his CV includes a stint in the laboratory of a steelworks, an unsuccessful turn as a film-maker, two years spent building an eye disease-detecting machine for Fred Hollows and a gig as a tertiary tutor in Papua New Guinea (his worst job of the lot because “the boss thought I was fucking his wife when I wasn’t”). He earned his first degree in physics, came back a decade later for a master’s in engineering, before returning again to study medicine.

Along the way he lived rent-free for eight years in squats in Glebe during his time as a self-described hippy who smoked weed daily and preferred not to wear shoes. He was once stalked by a shark while swimming at Little Bay. He narrowly avoided being arrested by Bjelke-Petersen era Queensland police by jumping from a moving train. He had another close call with death when, while driving the taxi, a group of men dragged him from the vehicle, beat him up and left him on the side of a road.

“Having been beaten unconscious really changes your life,” he reflects now, as we take a seat in the study. “So if people insult me and say, ‘You smell like a bum.’ I go, oh, all right. But until you beat me unconscious again, I’m not really worried. Words, they just go past.”

Despite all the action crammed into the memoir, Kruszelnicki says there are other chapters of his life that didn’t make the cut.

“I left out minor things like my seven trips to Antarctica and several decades being a test driver for four-wheel drives in the Australian outback,” he says. “And there was stuff I had to leave out because it was too bad and so [the publisher] said leave it out.”

Like what, I ask?

Kruszelnicki looks through a drawer in a large cluttered room
A lot of time is spent in the shed, tinkering with tools. Photograph: Carly Earl/The Guardian

“Oh, they were pretty bad. So that’s why forgiveness is such an important thing, because we all make stupid mistakes. Next question.”

Eventually Kruszelnicki began making media appearances as a science communicator, finding himself in yet another new career. But despite the high profile he has built he insists there’s nothing special about him.

“I’m not particularly smart,” he says. “My IQ is in [the category] that two-thirds of the population is, between 85 and 115, but I am very well educated because once upon a time the Australian government thought that education was a worthwhile investment in the future.”

The secret to his success, he says, is just “being able to explain things in plain English. And 16 years of free university education – I could not have done it without that.”

Today Kruszelnicki is in his mid-70s (I ask his exact age and he responds only that he’s “older than lettuce, younger than a mountain”). Over the years some things have changed while others stayed the same. He no longer smokes cannabis, though he says it’s “pretty clear” it should be legalised. He doesn’t identify as a hippy any more but still believes in progressive causes including raising the minimum age for incarceration (“Putting 10-year-old kids in jail like they do in Queensland, that’s just very wrong”).

In his later years he has found more wholesome hobbies than those of his youth. On my way out he shows me the back yard where he plays with his grandkids and the shed where he spends a lot of time tinkering with tools, or just sitting down to scour the Aldi catalogue for deals. On the wall is a street sign from a nearby main road. “It fell off, I didn’t knock it off,” he says. “But as soon as I saw it, I took it.”

Dr Karl blows a kiss to the camera
‘Don’t worry about taking a meandering path. Every job I’ve had makes me feel good.’ Photograph: Carly Earl/The Guardian

Having lived it all, Kruszelnicki’s advice to others navigating their own journey is to stay curious, optimistic and generous – and not to rush things.

“There’s many ways there, so don’t worry about taking a meandering path,” he says. “Every job I’ve had makes me feel good, and when it stops making me feel good, I walk away.”

I ask Kruszelnicki if there’s any job he hasn’t had yet had but wants to try. He replies without missing a beat: “Astronaut.”

I get the feeling he might make it happen yet.