Climate
Change Minister Chris Bowen will claim a major win in the fight to meet
Australia's 2030 emissions target after closing part of the predicted
pollution "gap" with policies to get more Australians into EVs and
expanding use of grid-scale batteries.
Mr
Bowen will present parliament on Thursday with the latest annual
official scorecard by the Department of Climate Change and Energy.
It shows decisions over the past year mean emissions will fall 42.6 per cent compared to the 2005 level.
At present emissions are tracking 3 per cent below the 2021 to 2030 "emissions budget", the departmental analysis shows.
A
year ago, in its 2023 report to parliament, the department calculated
the country was on track to cut climate pollution by 37 per cent, with
emissions about 1 per cent below budget.
The
improvements come as Labor and the Coalition lock horns over when to
release Australia's global 2035 emissions pledge, which the government
shows signs of seeking to push beyond the coming federal election.
Ministers
led by Mr Bowen originally vowed to reveal the 2035 target by February,
but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Environment Minister Tanya
Plibersek now say they are first awaiting advice from the Climate Change
Authority on how ambitious it should be.
The
ABC reported last week that the authority, chaired by former state
Liberal treasurer and climate change minister Matt Kean, told the
government it needed more time to assess the impact of Donald Trump's
re-election on global energy and emissions policies.
The
latest departmental calculations on the 2030 target will be tabled in
parliament on Thursday alongside the independent Climate Change
Authority's own annual analysis of emissions across sectors including
energy, transport and agriculture.
Over
the past 12 months the biggest changes to the trajectory are due to Mr
Bowen's decision to expand its so-called capacity investment scheme,
which uses government money to encourage investors to install more than
32 gigawatts of energy storage by 2030.
Separately,
the government earlier this year bedded down a national vehicle
emissions scheme, which prompts car makers to prioritise sales of
electric and hybrid vehicles over pure petrol or diesel burners.
The
department has also credited a greater fall in anticipated land-sector
emissions — primarily caused by increased forestry and other vegetation.
They are set to decline by 64 million tonnes in 2030 compared to a year
ago, when the were tipped to decline by 57 million tonnes.
Together, Mr Bowen will say, those changes mean "pollution is coming down".
"Our
robust reforms and pragmatic policies are delivering what we've always
said – Australia's 43 per cent target is ambitious but achievable."
The
Coalition continues to question the achievability of the government's
target, which it took to the 2022 election and enshrined in law later
that month.
Quarterly data suggests emissions have largely stalled since the pandemic, at about 440 million tonnes.
The target means that figure needs to fall to 352 million tonnes by 2030.
"The Coalition can't even name a 2030 target, let alone achieve it," Mr Bowen will say.
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