Thursday, 2 January 2025

2025 begins with a heatwave after BoM confirms 2024 was second-hottest year on record.

Extract from ABC News

Pictures of people on the beach and walking past Bondi Beach on a clear summer's day.

Beachgoers at Bondi spent New Year's Day cooling off as the UV Index reached 12.  (ABC News: Mario Conti)

In short: 

Australia has just recorded its second-hottest year on record. 

The mean temperature was 1.46 degrees Celsius above the 1961-1990 baseline average, according to the BoM. 

What's next? 

Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney are expected to suffer through a heatwave in the coming days. 

Australia has just baked through its second-warmest year on record, covering all years since 1910 when reliable national data is first available.

The country's mean temperature, the average of all minimums and maximums, was 1.46 degrees Celsius above the 1961-1990 baseline average according to the Bureau of Meteorology, only a small fraction below the 1.51C record anomaly in 2019, and comfortably clear of the third place 1.34C in 2013.

2024 Temps PROX

Last year brought record heat to parts of Australia, including much of western WA and the central interior.

Last year was also the 24th consecutive year the country failed to record a mean temperature cooler than normal, and while the overall temperature was just shy of a record, the nation's minimums were easily the highest in the Bureau of Meteorology's 115 years of data.

Overnight lows came in at 1.43C above the average, well above the previous record anomaly of 1.27C in 1998.

Maximums averaged across Australia were calculated to be 1.48C above average, but the higher inter-annual variability of daytime temperatures resulted in a 4th place ranking behind 2019, 2013 and 2018.

The heat was fairly uniformly spread throughout the year, with April being a noticeable exception when the national average was 0.51C below normal.

Conversely the hottest month was August when the mean was 3.03C above average, followed by October at 2.51C above.

When compared to the pre-industrial Australian climate, 2024's temperatures appear even more extreme — close to 2C higher.

And Australia was certainly not the only region of Earth simmering — the global anomaly of 1.6C above pre-industrial times in 2024 surpassed the previous record from 2023 according to Copernicus data.

However, the global figure is slightly deceptive since climate change is warming the Earth's vast oceans at a slower rate than land, meaning most humans in 2024 were subjected to temperatures well above the 1.6C anomaly.

Perth and Sydney swelter, Melbourne abnormally cool

The hottest parts of Australia relative to average through 2024 were across the central interior and west where departures were around 2.5C above pre-industrial levels.

This resulted in Perth's hottest year on record, including the first time the WA capital's mean temperature was above 20C and the first time its maximums exceeded 26C.

The eastern seaboard was also notably warm — Sydney's mean temperature of 19.6C was just 0.1C below the record from 2016, while Hobart's 14.0C mean when rounded to the tenth of a degree equalled the record.

Both Brisbane and Darwin were just 0.2C off a record, and for both cities 2024 was the second warmest, while Adelaide and Canberra also landed with a top 10 ranking.

Melbourne's mean of 16.2C was more than 1C above its long-term average, however the city was well below the 17.2C record from 2007.

Let's take a look at a historical comparison for our capitals — noting that weather data extends back to the 1800s for most cities.

2025 off to a scorcher with another heatwave looming

The first week of 2025 will simply extend the run of warmth from December, including another heatwave for much of the country.

January is on average the hottest month, but even for peak summer the next few days will bring temperatures up to 12C above average.

Perth already reached 38C on New Year's Day, the city's hottest start to a year since 1997, while inland eastern suburbs climbed as high as 42C.

This next wave of hot, and dry air will then shift east during the coming days, peaking across SA and Victoria through the weekend, and NSW on Sunday and Monday.

WA expecting heatwave

Another heatwave to spread from WA to south-east states in coming days

Adelaide, Canberra, Melbourne and western Sydney will soar into the mid to high 30s during the heatwave, before a cool change sweeps onto the SA coast late Sunday, moves through Victoria on Monday, before reaching the NSW coast on Tuesday.

The seemingly endless run of heatwaves this summer comes as no surprise considering the exceptional global heat during the past two years and are likely to be an ongoing feature of our weather this summer.

So, why is it so warm? 

While the 2023 El Nino played a role in driving record temperatures, climate change is now the major influence on yearly anomalies, a trend which will ensure future years remain almost exclusively abnormally warm.

Australia is even projected to warm by another degree by 2050 under a high emissions scenario, meaning the hottest years in just over two decades could be around 3C warmer than the early 20th century climate.

Rain dampens the heat

While temperatures were uniformly high across the country, rainfall through 2024 was variable, ranging from record wet in parts of the north, to record dry along pockets of the southern coastline.

Despite the extremes, for most of the country totals were either near or above average, resulting in Australia's eighth wettest year on record in the 125 years going back to 1900.

A map of Australia showing rain fall coded by colour.

Record rain fell in 2024 over parts of the NT, while the southern coastline suffered through a severe drought.

Record rain fell in 2024 over parts of the NT, while the southern coastline suffered through a severe drought.

The average rainfall across the entire nation was 594mm, 128mm above normal, and the fifth consecutive wetter than average year.

The wettest capital was Darwin with 1,986mm, 264mm above their average and the wettest in seven years.

Sydney came in second at 1,641mm (average 1,221mm) closely followed by Brisbane with 1,605mm (average 1,133mm).

The driest capital was Adelaide where only 347mm fell, nearly 200mm below average and the city's driest year since 2006.

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