Saturday, 29 October 2022

Russia hunts win in strategic city of Bakhmut after weeks of setbacks in Ukraine war.

Extract from ABC News 

ABC News Homepage

Posted 
A soldier in the bush holds a blue shell with hand writing on it.
A Ukrainian soldier near Bakhmut carries a shell with a written message to the Russian army.(AP: Efrem Lukatsky)

Russian soldiers are edging closer in their attempt to seize Bakhmut, an eastern city that has remained in Ukrainian hands despite Moscow seeking to capture the entire Donbas region bordering Russia.

While much of the fighting in the past month has unfolded in southern Ukraine's Kherson region, the battle heating up around Bakhmut demonstrates Russian President Vladimir Putin's desire for visible gains following weeks of setbacks.

Taking Bakhmut would rupture Ukraine's supply lines and open a route for Russian forces to press on toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, key Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk province.

Pro-Moscow separatists have controlled part of Donetsk and the neighbouring Luhansk province since 2014.

Before invading Ukraine, Mr Putin recognised the independence of the Russian-backed separatists' self-proclaimed republics.

Last month, he illegally annexed the Donetsk, Luhansk and two other provinces that Russian forces occupied or mostly occupied.

A graphic map shows regions of Ukraine annexed by Russia with the frontline highlighted in orange.
A graphic map shows the areas of Ukraine annexed by Russia, with the frontline as at October 7, 2022, highlighted in orange.

Russia has battered Bakhmut with rockets for more than five months.

The ground assault accelerated after its troops forced the Ukrainians to withdraw from Luhansk in July. The line of contact is now on the city's outskirts.

Mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a shadowy Russian military company, are reported to be leading the charge.

Russia's prolonged drive for Bakhmut exposes Moscow's "craziness," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a nightly address to the nation this week.

"Day after day, for months, they have been driving people there to their deaths, concentrating the maximum power of artillery strikes there," Mr Zelenskyy said.

The shelling killed at least three people between Wednesday and Thursday, according to local authorities.

Ukraine's military is firing mortars and heavy artillery to repel the Russian forces who were less than 5 kilometres away by early Thursday, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington.

Russia needs a victory in Bakhmut given it is losing control over large swaths of the north-eastern region of Kharkiv to a Ukrainian counteroffensive last month and its deteriorating position in Kherson.

The areas were among the first the Russian military captured after the February 24 invasion of Ukraine.

"Russia's suffering defeats across the board. They need the optics of some kind of an offensive victory to assuage critics at home and to show the Russian public that this war is still going to plan," said Samuel Ramani, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defence and security think tank based in London.

Three soldiers stand next to a tank on the side of the road.
Ukrainian soldiers capture a Russian tank on the road to Bakhmut.(AP: Efrem Lukatsky)

The Wagner Group has played a prominent role in the war, and human rights organisations have accused its soldiers for hire of committing atrocities.

Their deployment around Bakhmut reflects the city's strategic importance to Moscow. However, it's unclear if the mercenaries have made many tangible gains, according to Mr Ramani.

"We're seeing a situation where the Wagner Group is quite effective at creating terror amongst the local residents but much less effective at actually capturing and holding territory," he said.

At the very best they're gaining 1km a week toward Bakhmut, he said.

While in the city this week, journalists from The Associated Press saw burned-out cars, destroyed buildings and people struggling to survive amid a cacophony of constant shelling.

'Terrible' conditions

Bakhmut has been without electricity or water for a month, and residents worry about heating their homes as temperatures drop.

"We hoped that this [war] would end or that we would have conditions that allow us to live. But since last month, conditions have been terrible," resident Leonid Tarasov said.

Few shops are open. The AP saw people using firewood to cook on the streets and drawing water from wells.

Bakhmut had a population of about 73,000 people before the war, but approximately 90 per cent have left the city, according to Pavlo Kyrylenko, the Ukrainian governor of the Donetsk region.

Some of those who remained asked in recent days to be evacuated from areas that are now too dangerous for volunteers or soldiers to get to because of the fighting, said Roman Zhylenkov a volunteer with the local aid group Vostok-SOS.

Others feel trapped.

"People who left moved to stay with their children or brothers and sisters. They had places to go," Ilona Ierhilieieva said as she mixed soup on an open fire by the side of the road.

"But as for us, we don't have a place to go. That's why we are here."

AP


Related Stories


Posted by at No comments:

Vladimir Putin's military draft sent thousands of men fleeing to Kazakhstan, driving up rents in its biggest cities.

Extract from ABC News

By Lucia Stein
Posted 
A group of people wearing jumpers and jackets line up on a sunny day.
Russian citizens have flocked to public service centres in Kazakhstan to be able to work and access their money.(Reuters: Pavel Mikheyev)

Though thousands of kilometres away from the front-line in Ukraine, the consequences of Vladimir Putin's deadly war are being sharply felt in Kazakhstan.

Nestled in the foothills of the Trans-Ili Alatau mountains, locals in the sprawling metropolis of Almaty will tell you there has been a noticeable shift since September 24.

There are more Russian visitors at train stations, on city streets and inside the city's cosy cafes.

After Putin declared a "partial mobilisation" in an attempt to get his disastrous war back on track, more than 200,000 Russians packed up their bags and descended on Kazakhstan.

The sudden influx caught many small communities by surprise.

Two people dressed in warm clothes walk by a cafe with flags.
Locals say they have spotted more Russians arrivals since the mobilisation announcement.(ABC News: Naubet Bisenov)

Hotels, hostels and Airbnb apartments quickly sold out within days, sending prices for remaining accommodation skyrocketing and forcing new arrivals to find emergency lodging in schools, cinemas and gyms.

Locals like Gaukhar Dossova have watched the unexpected series of developments play out in their hometown with a mixture of surprise and perplexity.

"Who would have thought people would wish to come and live in our city, Almaty? Normally it is people going in the opposite direction," the tour guide tells the ABC.

Kazakhstan used to be a disembarkation point for Central Asian workers, enticed by Russia's higher wages and work opportunities.

But, just like with so much else, the invasion of Ukraine has ushered in a new reality.

Some migrants who left for Moscow and St Petersburg have made their way back and now Kazakh cities are grappling with how to adequately look after the deluge of people fleeing to their towns.

Many have welcomed the new arrivals, starting grassroots organisations and Telegram forums to provide advice and assistance.

But the influx has also ignited tensions between the two countries, as economic pressures mount and memories of an unresolved colonial past resurface.

As these dynamics play out locally, the consequences of Moscow's war are also rupturing fault lines at the geopolitical level.

With Putin's forces in trouble in Ukraine, the Kremlin's ability to exert influence over post-Soviet states is being put to the test, driving some allies to seek other powerful relationships in the region.

Russians flock to the church only to be turned away

Putin's war in Ukraine is having very real consequences for millions of people.

Nearly one-third of Ukraine's population has been displaced since the invasion began, and some 4.2 million Ukrainian refugees have registered for the European Union's temporary protection scheme or other national programs. 

Russia's partial mobilisation order last month has also sent hundreds of thousands of its own citizens fleeing, including people like Dima Poltavets.

On a grey October morning following a religious service in Almaty, Dima lingers outside, recalling his escape from Yaroslavl, a city 250 kilometres north-east of Moscow.

A man with blonde hair and wearing a black puffer jacket stands outside a church with people gathered outside.
Dima Poltavets has found a job as an event organiser in Almaty after fleeing Vladimir Putin's mobilisation order.(ABC News: Naubet Bisenov)

After flying to the capital, he embarked on a 3,000-kilometre journey that would take him from Barnaul in Siberia to the eastern Kazakh city of Oskemen and then to Almaty, where he has now settled.

He says he turned to his church friends to help him find refuge abroad when his life was turned upside down.

"I am living in a flat provided to me for free by my fellow churchgoers and have now found a job as an event organiser and am waiting for my wife to join me," the 26-year-old told the ABC.

Kazakhstan and Georgia both offer visa-free entry to Russian nationals, and are popular destinations for those fleeing the draft.

Volunteers and churches have acted as important lifelines for these exiles, sometimes providing a soft landing as they contemplate their next steps.

Unlike many fringe Protestant churches, however, Kazakhstan's main Christian denomination – the Russian Orthodox Church – has not provided shelter or food to Russian refugees, draft escapees told the ABC.

The head of the church, Patriach Kirill, is an ally of Putin and shortly after the partial mobilisation, he said Russians who die in the war in Ukraine will be cleansed of their sins. 

Seventy per cent of Kazakhstan's population is nominally Muslim and mosques offered accommodation if the requesters were of that faith.

"Church is a place of help. Young men had nowhere to go and we offered them shelter and food," Vasiliy Kim, the administrator at the New Life church, told the ABC after a crowded Sunday service.

"The church has bought bunk beds but churchgoers have brought mattresses, blankets, beddings and food [so] we could offer a temporary home to them."

Bakhtiyar, whose last name has not been included, has also leaned on the church for support since arriving in Kazakhstan.

The ethnic Kazakh man does not support the war but couldn't leave his family in Kalingrad when it started.

"But when I faced a choice of supporting my family from afar or dying in Ukraine, I chose to flee Russia," he said of Putin's partial mobilisation order.

He spent five days in a shelter provided by a Protestant church in the border town of Kostanay before coming to Almaty by train.

A house painted grey with a man sitting on a chair in the background.
Some new arrivals have been offered accommodation in New Life's hostel in Almaty.(ABC News: Naubet Bisenov)

Speaking in a tiny room stacked with three bunk beds along the walls inside the New Life's guest house, Bakhtiyar says as an IT specialist he could bring his work with him to Kazakhstan but he had no savings to afford accommodation in Almaty.

It's a situation many other Russians are struggling with, either because they left without much money or are unable to access it overseas due to sanctions on credit cards and Russian banks.

Since arriving, hundreds have stood in long queues outside Almaty's town centre to register in Kazakhstan's national ID system, a requirement for getting a job or a bank account.

About 200,000 foreigners have received a taxpayer number in Kazakhstan since September 21, Deputy Digital Development Minister Aset Tursynov said this week.

Skyrocketing rents spark tensions in cities

The arrival of thousands of Russians in such a short period of time has also strained housing markets in some cities, prompting landlords to raise rents against a backdrop of rampant inflation.

A sign displaying different exchange rates in US, Euro and Russian with trees in the background.
A sign displaying different exchange rates in Almaty on October 21.(ABC News: Naubet Bisenov)

Dariga Zhakupova rents in Almaty with her husband and two kids, but said she was warned that her rent would go up after Russia's partial mobilisation.

Her landlady agreed to limit the rent increase to about $US100 (more than $156), but only if Dariga repairs and decorates the flat by the end of January.

"My husband and I just need to try to earn more to cover for the increase," Dariga said, acknowledging this was the reality now.

"She said she could rent it out for $US1,300 to Russians, so we just agreed to her conditions."

Not only are Kazakh tenants falling victim to rising prices, but so are Russians who arrived in Kazakhstan as part of the first exodus in February.

Petr Andreev, a 51-year-old Muscovite who helps people with special needs, says that his rent went up by 50 per cent to $US420 for a tiny 19-square-metre studio in central Almaty.

A close up of a man with grey hair wearing glasses and a red tshirt standing next to a window.
Petr Andreev says his rent in Almaty went up by 50 per cent since Russia's "partial mobilisation".(ABC News: Naubet Bisenov)

Realising this may pose a potential social problem, Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev described the situation of fleeing Russians as "hopeless" and said Kazakhs "need to show care of them and ensure their safety".

Many have taken up the cause, including offering advice to those fleeing in a Relocation to Kazakhstan Telegram chat, but a few express their fears that the arrivals may make Kazakhstan a target for Russia.

With an already sizeable ethnic Russian population, there are concerns that Putin may one day turn his attention to "liberating" citizens in the north.

Putin's war creates tensions with Central Asian allies

As these dynamics are playing out in cities all over the country, there has been a broader shift in the geopolitical landscape in Central Asia since Putin's war.

The Russian leader has clung to the idea of Moscow's "sphere of influence," a collection of former satellite states that once belonged to the Soviet empire.

But when Putin arrived in Kazakhstan on October 13 to attend a series of regional meetings, he received a surprising response.

Vladimir Putin leans his head towards a man with grey hair wearing a dark suit as they walk infront of flags.
Vladimir Putin visited Kazakhstan to attend the summit of leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) earlier this month.(Sputnik/Dmitry Azarov/Pool via Reuters)

In a lengthy rebuke, the leader of Tajikistan, one of the region's smallest and poorest countries, complained that Moscow's attitude had not improved since the Soviet era.

"We want respect. Nothing else. Respect," Emomali Rakhmon said.

Kazakhstan's leader has also stood up to Moscow, with observers noting he held no bilateral meeting with Putin, despite hosting the summit and meeting with several other leaders.

Since the war, he has refused to recognise the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as independent republics and in an apparent veiled reference to Russia, he has complained of personal attacks on national leaders that "poison the atmosphere of cooperation" in the post-Soviet space.

However, Kazakhstan still maintains important trade ties with its neighbour and shares a long cultural past.

It also looks to Russia as the region's "policeman" within the group of six countries that make up the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

The group, which includes Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, was set up after the collapse of the Soviet Union and is regarded by observers as a regional answer to NATO.

When Tokayev faced widespread protests and riots in January after lifting the price cap on liquefied petroleum, it was the CSTO that stepped in with Russian paratroopers to help "stabilise the country".

Putin may have expected Kazakhstan to return the favour with Ukraine, observers say, but the country has so far held off on making any such commitments.

In another sign of the strained relationship between the two countries, Kazakh authorities also snubbed a demand from Russia to expel Ukraine's ambassador Petro Vrublevskiy over comments she made about the war in Ukraine.

Kazakhstan rejected what they called Russia's inappropriate tone between "equal strategic partners".

"I think there's a lot of people who talk about Putin's grand strategy, with the Ukraine war he pretty much did the exact opposite of everything he wanted," Paul Stronski, an expert on Russia and Central Asia relations and a senior fellow for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said.

As a result, Russia's standing in the region has diminished, prompting some Central Asian countries to respond with more assertiveness.

"Russia has long wanted what it calls a "multipolar world," where it's not just a western-dominated international system, but rising powers have an equal say," Stronski said.

"Well, they kind of have a multipolar world [now], which is not the one that they wanted. It's right in their backyard."

Could China be strengthening ties in Central Asia?

In alienating some of its closest neighbours, Stronski says Russia has also driven them to seek ties with other powers, including Turkey, Japan, the United States, and China.

In September, China's President Xi Jinping made a notable visit to Kazakhstan ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Leaders Summit.

A man in a dark suit with grey hair wearing a mask presents Xi Jinping with a black box.
Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev presents Chinese President Xi Jinping with an award during their meeting last month.(Press service of the President of Kazakhstan via Reuters)

Xi had been ensconced inside China since the country all but shut its borders in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

The significance of selecting Kazakhstan for his first trip to a foreign nation in nearly 1,000 days was not lost on China watchers, who argued it could be seen as a sign that "Beijing sees Kazakhstan as a friend and Russia should not do anything to hurt Beijing's friend".

But Stronski said there were a few other factors at play.

"I think Kazakhstan and then Uzbekistan were likely choices to visit because the Chinese knew he'd get a good reception there," Stronski said, adding that both were "authoritarian states and wary of criticising China".

With the world's largest oil and gas reserves as well as a rich supply of minerals from gold to uranium and tungsten at its disposal, Kazakhstan also has important economic standing in the region.

"Kazakhstan was [Xi's] first stop and Uzbekistan was the second ... those are both the most important countries politically and with the biggest markets," Stronski said.

"Both are important for Beijing if it wants to re-route its Belt And Road infrastructure around Russian territory."

China has formed close economic ties with its near neighbour, investing nearly $US14 billion, as of 2019, in Kazak oil and gas projects.

And recently Xi has also pledged to provide it with resolute support for "the defence of its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity".

But China is a sensitive issue in Kazakhstan, according to Stronski, with people protests previously held at the Embassy of China over the treatment of Uighurs.

In 2016, there were also massive anti-land reform demonstrations, which were held because the public thought it could lead to China buying up cheap Kazakh land.

"Whether Kazakhstan really wants a closer relationship with China is unclear," Stronski said.

But, he says Kazakhstan "certainly wants enhanced security ties with China both to counterbalance Russia and its threats".

With his reliable allies beginning to challenge his influence, Putin has been delivered another blow to his campaign to assert Russia as a global power.

"Countries [like Kazakhstan] are looking for new economic partners in dealing with Russia," Stronski said.

"I really think Russia is losing some of its clout in the region."

With additional reporting from Naubet Bisenov in Almaty and Reuters.

Posted by at No comments:

Friday, 28 October 2022

ClubsNSW suggests use of facial recognition could go beyond identifying problem gamblers.

Extract from The Guardian 

Gambling

Exclusive: Lobby group links technology to identification of people barred from venues for disorderly behaviour.

A man plays a pokie machine at a club
ClubsNSW have not ruled out expanding the use of facial recognition technology to prevent people who have been kicked out of pubs from entering.
@mmcgowan
Fri 28 Oct 2022 02.00 AEDTLast modified on Fri 28 Oct 2022 02.02 AEDT
People kicked out of New South Wales pubs for being too drunk could be tracked via facial recognition technology if new laws introduced to parliament last week are not changed, with the powerful gambling lobby refusing to rule out expanding the use of the controversial tool.

A week after ClubsNSW announced it would roll out facial recognition technology to pubs and clubs across the state as a harm minimisation tool that could “only be used to enforce self exclusion” by gamblers, it now concedes its use will be more widespread.

The revelation came after the NSW crime commission released a damning report on Wednesday which found billions of dollars in “dirty” money is being gambled in pubs and clubs in the state every year.

A person gambles on a poker machine at a pub
Business racing to use facial recognition technology, raising concerns the law is too slow to catch up
Read more

The report called for the introduction of a cashless gambling card to address what it said was a “$95bn-a-year information black hole” for authorities attempting to track the proceeds of crime.

But in a statement after the report’s release, the ClubsNSW chief executive, Josh Landis, cited the use of facial recognition technology along with a crime commission recommendation for an exclusion register to allow police to alert venues to “patrons with criminal links”, as making it “near impossible for a criminal to enter a club in the future”.

Those comments contradicted what ClubsNSW said when it announced the use of the technology only a week ago.

At the time ClubsNSW and the Australian Hotels Association said facial recognition technology would be used to “combat problem gambling”, saying that it could “only [ClubsNSW’s italics] be used to enforce self-exclusion in gaming areas”.

When Guardian Australia asked ClubsNSW about the discrepancy, the lobby group did not acknowledge the change in its position, but pointed to legislation introduced last week by the state’s gaming minister, Kevin Anderson, formalising the use of the technology.

The bill would allow the use of “technology” to “identify, and prevent” people from entering a club or pub if that person has been “excluded” from a venue.

A poker machine in a club
NSW clubs’ lobby alleges whistleblower Troy Stolz waged media campaign to ‘tarnish’ its reputation
Read more
Billions in ‘dirty’ money going into NSW pokies should be addressed by cashless gaming card, crime commission says
Read more

NSW Greens MP Cate Faehrmann said the change in ClubsNSW position showed the “claims that they’re serious about stopping money laundering are totally disingenuous”.

“Clubs NSW are desperately attempting to appear as though they’ve solved the problems plaguing their industry without having to undergo genuine reform to clean it up,” she said.

The cashless gambling card was championed by former gaming minister Victor Dominello before he was removed from the portfolio by the premier after opposition to the proposal from the gambling lobby.

On Wednesday the NSW premier, Dominic Perrottet, said he was open to considering its use, but wanted to “work very closely with industry”.

Posted by at No comments:

Netball Australia, the Socceroos and sportswashing – with Lenore Taylor

Podcast from The Guardian

Full Story

Netball

Full Story Series

Presented by with and . Produced by and . Executive produced by Gabrielle Jackson and

In this episode of Full Story, Gabrielle Jackson talks to Lenore Taylor and Jo Tovey about players finding their voice, the politics of sport, and sportswashing

How to listen to podcasts: everything you need to know

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2022/oct/28/netball-australia-the-socceroos-and-sportswashing-with-lenore-taylor

Read more:
Donnell Wallam of the Diamonds shoots during the netball match between the Australian Diamonds and the England Roses at Newcastle Entertainment Centre in NewcastlePhotograph: Darren Pateman/AAP
Posted by at No comments:

Climate change: World 'hurtling' towards Paris target overshoot, UN emissions report warns.

Extract from ABC News 

ABC News Homepage

ABC Science

By environment reporter Nick Kilvert
Posted 
Pollution from a power plant.
All industry needs to avoid locking in "fossil fuel-intensive infrastructure", the report authors have warned.(Getty Images: baranozdemir)

The world is headed for "economy-destroying levels of global heating" as signatory countries to the Paris Agreement fail to commit to more ambitious emissions reduction targets.

That's the message from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, as the United Nations hands down its Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window.

The "emissions gap" refers to the difference or "gap" between where emissions are projected to be in 2030, versus what's required to put us in step with the targets of the Paris Agreement for 2030 and beyond. The wider the gap, the worse the likely climate outcomes.

UN climate leaders requested last year (at COP26 in Glasgow) that countries should increase the ambition of their emissions reduction pledges further in line with the Paris targets by the 2022 COP27 Climate Summit, which kicks off in Egypt on November 6.

But that has barely happened, leaving the world "hurtling" towards increasingly dangerous warming this century.

Updated pledges since Glasgow will only shave an extra 1 per cent off global emissions by 2030, and see us on a path to reach or surpass 2.4 degrees Celsius of warming this century, the report says.

To keep warming on track for 2C this century, those pledges would have to shave around 30 per cent off projected 2030 global emissions.

Limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels would require emissions to be cut by 45 per cent more than is currently pledged for 2030.

"Droughts, floods, storms, and wildfires are devastating lives and livelihoods across the globe. And global and national climate commitments are falling pitifully short," Mr Guterres said.

"The emissions gap is a by-product of a commitments gap. A promises gap. An action gap. That gap must be filled — starting with COP27 in Egypt."

The longer it takes to get global emissions down, the faster we chew through our carbon budget — the amount of carbon dioxide we can emit in total before we push past crucial temperature increases.

That makes strong 2030 targets all the more important, said ANU climate scientist and IPCC contributing author Mark Howden, who wasn't associated with the report.

"There's a sense of urgency which relates to the carbon budget and how quickly that's running out," Professor Howden said.

"It also relates to the acceleration of temperature increases — we're likely to exceed 1.5C in the next decade or so. The urgency can't be understated."

Countries falling short of 'insufficient' targets

Pledges, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), are made by each signatory country to the Paris Agreement.

Signatory countries are expected to periodically ramp up the ambition of their nationally determined contributions in order to help achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement (to keep warming under 2C, ideally 1.5C).

Two workers dressed in orange walk in row of solar panels at huge solar farm in Chinchilla.
A clean energy transition offers great economic potential, and can help reduce future costs from natural distasters.(Supplied: Queensland government)

Nationally determined contributions fall into either "unconditional" or "conditional" categories, with the latter reliant on certain caveats, such as the provision of international financial or technical support.

Full implementation of the current unconditional and conditional nationally determined contributions would see the world on track for average warming of 2.6C and 2.4C respectively this century, according to the report.

But even with the current "highly insufficient" global targets, current policy settings mean many countries aren't on track to achieve their pledges, Mr Guterres warned.

"Under current policies, the world is headed for 2.8 degrees of global heating by the end of the century.

"In other words, we are headed for a global catastrophe."

'Incremental change no longer an option'

Describing the past 12 months since COP26 as a "wasted year" for climate action, the Emissions Gap Report warns time is rapidly running out to bring emissions under control.

Fourteen countries submitted updated emissions reduction pledges since Glasgow, including Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, and the Republic of Korea.

A displaced family wades through a flooded area with belongings in bags above their heads.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says droughts and floods are devastating lives across the globe.(AP: Zahid Hussain/File)

Australia's new target of a 43 per cent reduction on 2005 levels by 2030 brings us more in step with the Paris Agreement, compared to the 26-28 per cent target committed to by the previous governments.

But a report from the University of Melbourne's Climate Energy College last year found 43 per cent was still insufficient to keep Australia within its 2C climate budget — our own portion of the global emissions budget.

"For Australia to remain within its 2C carbon budget, we would need to reduce emissions by 50 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, reaching net-zero emissions by 2045.

"To remain within the 1.5C carbon budget, the targets would be 76 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2035."

Eighty-eight countries have now adopted some form of net-zero commitment, up from 74 at COP26.

Australia also has a 2050 net-zero target; however, Professor Howden says the date we get to net zero is less important than how quickly we get emissions down today.

"It's not so much the end point of when you get to net zero, it's actually what you do over the next few years.

"If we're emitting at record levels at a global scale or fairly constant levels at a national scale, that chews through our carbon budgets very quickly, so we need very rapid action."

The report warns that the global overhaul of our energy, food, and economic systems needs to be rapid and comprehensive.

That includes avoiding "locking in new fossil fuel-intensive infrastructure".

"Incremental change is no longer an option: broad-based, economy-wide transformations are required to avoid closing the window of opportunity to limit global warming to well below 2C, preferably 1.5C," it said.

"Every fraction of a degree matters."

A report from Deloitte Access Economics last year forecasted climate change-related natural disasters would cost Australia $73 billion a year by 2060.

Post-COVID rebound puts emissions at record high

Though global emissions dipped during COVID, they've since rebounded, with 2021 the highest on record, according to energy systems decarbonisation researcher Sven Teske from the University of Technology Sydney.

"They actually went down a bit during COVID but they've popped straight back up in 2021," said Associate Professor Teske, who was a reviewer of the Emissions Gap Report.

"Obviously China is the largest emitter in that regard — one-third of all global energy-related carbon emissions are from China. While they keep growing or plateauing we will not close the gap."

The rate of global emissions growth has slowed though, to an average increase of 1.1 per cent per year in the decade to 2019, compared to 2.6 per cent per year between 2000 and 2009.

And that includes China's emissions growth, Dr Teske said.

"The good news is China's emissions aren't rising as much as they were a decade ago. They are in charge of more than half of all new installations of renewable energy technology.

"It's also not true anymore that every week another coal-fired power plant is connected to the grid. That hasn't been the case since 2018-19 — several years.

"You keep hearing that statement all the time, but it's not true."

Professor Howden said moving to low-emissions economies was about more than tackling climate change.

"Action on climate change is extraordinarily well aligned, when well designed and well implemented, with sustainable development goals.

"Action on climate change can generate significant profits for companies that engage with it — it can generate regional development and create jobs. It's not only urgent, but it actually makes a lot of sense to do it."

Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)