Extract from ABC News
Analysis
The question of whether Benjamin Netanyahu received warnings ahead of October 7 is a key issue in Israel's upcoming election. (Reuters: Jonathan Ernst)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's explanation for the worst-ever breakdown of Israel's national security has been simple: no-one woke him up on the morning of October 7, 2023.
"There were so many warning signs, so many indications that an attack was imminent," he said last month.
"Had they woken me up, everything would have looked different. That is the story of October 7th. That is the story."
But with only weeks to go until elections in Israel, an unrelenting stream of well-sourced, detailed stories has suddenly appeared, documenting multiple failures by the PM to either heed warnings of a possible Hamas strike, or to seize early opportunities to rescue the hundreds of hostages taken by the terrorist group.
What gives the story an electrifying geopolitical edge is that the revelations over the last month come from some of the most powerful figures in the Middle East, including senior figures from the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, multiple Israeli defence and intelligence sources, and sources in the United States.
Netanyahu has branded as "lies" the stories that include details of secret flights and covert phone calls. But tellingly, other governments have not denied them.
And now the former head of Shin Bet, Ronen Bar has declared he will sue Netanyahu for defamation, saying that he had warned the PM "of an impending disaster, and he ignored me".
How the report first emerged
Journalists at the Israeli newspaper Haaretz first made the revelations, followed by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Atlantic.
On September 8, Haaretz reported UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed (MBZ) had called Netanyahu a week and a half before October 7, warning him that Hamas' leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, was planning a major operation against Israel.
"The emir explained that, in his assessment, Sinwar was preparing for a major event," an adviser who sat in on the conversation told Haaretz.
"He told Netanyahu that Israel should be ready."
To MBZ's reported surprise, Netanyahu downplayed the risks. What is more, the reports revealed he had not passed on the warnings to Israeli defence and security chiefs.
Netanyahu responded the day after the Haaretz story appeared, saying it was "an absolute lie" and that he would be suing Haaretz and the journalists.
"Prime Minister Netanyahu didn't speak to the president of the UAE during the period in question and received no warning from him," the post said.
Growing scrutiny of October 7 warnings
In the complex world of Middle Eastern politics, this story is not just a case of implacable regional enemies seeking to damage Netanyahu.
The UAE is one of the Gulf countries with the strongest ties to Israel and, since the February 28 attack on Iran, is seen as the Gulf state most closely aligned with the US-Israeli mission.
In response to the Haaretz story, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs conspicuously issued what the trade calls a "non-denial denial".
"The UAE government does not comment on media stories or speculation regarding conversations between government leaders," it posted.
But it said its engagement since October 7 was "consistently directed toward de-escalation, regional stability and preventing violence" and that "when necessary, all relevant intelligence has been and continues to be communicated between the relevant entities".
Another twist emerged this week when reports surfaced that Netanyahu had reportedly made a (now not) secret dash to the UAE on Sunday and met with MBZ.
Haaretz reported that Netanyahu asked the Emirati president to deny reports of their phone conversation and any details concerning the events of October 7 that could embarrass him.
"Netanyahu also asked bin Zayed for what the sources described as moral support," Haaretz said.
The Israeli public broadcaster later said Netanyahu's visit to Abu Dhabi coincided with incoming flights from Libya, Morocco, Qatar and the UAE, suggesting the visit was to discuss Iran.
But the problem for Netanyahu is that it is not just this report of one warning overlooked, even if it was a phone call from a powerful figure in the region.
Reports 'never reached leaders of Israel's security establishment'
On Friday last week, the New York Times backed the Haaretz story and added more detail.
The newspaper, citing five former senior Israeli officials, reported that the warning from the Emirati leader "never reached the leaders of Israel's security establishment".
Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected calls for an official government inquiry into the events surrounding the October 7, 2023, attack. (Reuters: Ronen Zvulun)
Instead, when Netanyahu gathered his security chiefs on October 1, 2023, for a meeting about the situation in the Gaza Strip, "he told them that the goal should be to maintain calm in Gaza", the minutes show, according to the paper.
"Netanyahu said that any Israeli action in Gaza might sabotage the prospect of Saudi Arabia establishing diplomatic relations with Israel — a deal the Israeli prime minister believed was imminent," the New York Times reported.
A separate story from Atlantic magazine reported that on September 26, 2023, Egypt's intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, had flown to Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport with another warning.
"Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood–aligned terrorist group that controlled Gaza appeared to be mobilizing for a major attack," Kamel said, according to Israeli, Egyptian, Arab, US, and European officials who were briefed about his visit after October 7.
Kamel's message was that the window to prevent a disaster was closing. He recommended that the Israeli government grant Hamas economic concessions to avert conflict.
The Atlantic, citing US, Egyptian and Israeli officials, said that even after this visit "Egypt continued to raise the alarm up until two days before the attack".
While most of the warnings Israel received in 2023 contained no date, target, or method of attack, the intelligence officials who spoke to all these media outlets said they were frequent and persistent enough to warrant attention.
The Wall Street Journal again brought home the point in a report on Monday.
It said that by early October 2023, "two Egyptian warnings about signs of an impending attack from Gaza had gone unheeded by Israel". That included Kamel's lightning in-person visit.
The WSJ reported, citing officials in an Arab government, that "Kamel called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to deliver a third alert".
How will this affect Israel's election?
In the lead-up to October 7, tensions within Gaza were already conspicuously high because of a freeze on deliveries of fuel, and because Israel had closed the primary pedestrian crossing between Gaza and Israel, depriving 18,000 Gazans of access to work.
What is particularly tragic for the people of Israel, and the people of Gaza, is that it has emerged that there were serious peace talks going on between Israel and Hamas — via intermediaries — in 2023.
The combined reporting of Haaretz and others has also documented that Netanyahu and his far-right cabinet colleagues rejected early opportunities in the wake of the October 7 attack to get hostages back from Gaza.
Haaretz reported this month that Qatar had intervened with Hamas to help get the hostages back, but when the Qatari prime minister conveyed to the head of Mossad a deal that would have allowed them to return home without any major conditions, the offer was rejected.
Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected calls for a commission of inquiry into the events leading up to October 7. But the issue remains huge in a country where almost everything is seen through a security lens.
Laura Tingle is the ABC's Global Affairs Editor.
