Paris climate deal: What you need to know about the signing and what happens next

Extract from ABC News

 

By environment reporter Sara Phillips

Updated yesterday at 5:47pm

Photo: The agreement is a global deal to limit global warming to 1.2 to 2 degrees. (AFP: Philippe Huguen)

Related Story: Australia set to sign Paris climate deal - but what does that mean?

Related Story: Cheers as world adopts historic Paris climate deal

Records are set to be broken as 168 countries line up to sign the historic United Nations Paris agreement on climate change in New York later today.

Environment Minister Greg Hunt is at the United Nations representing Australia.
The previous record of 119 signatures on the opening day of an accord was set back in 1982 for the agreement on the Law of the Sea.
It is exciting for the UN that an agreement has such global approval. But more importantly, it is a signal to business and governments that climate action has entered a new phase.

What will signing the deal mean?

In theory, the Paris agreement could make a huge difference — but in practice, everything depends on countries not just signing up to it, but also acting on it.

For the Paris agreement on climate change to enter into force, several steps need to be completed. The first is agreeing on the text. That was a tortuous process that tried, failed, stumbled and at last found its feet over many years.
In December last year, at a meeting in Paris with 196 countries, the wording of the text was finally agreed. Step one complete.
Step two is to sign the agreement. Tick.
After that, the countries need to do whatever is required domestically to formally accept the agreement.
The treaty needs 55 per cent of countries to accept it, and at least 55 per cent of global emissions to be represented by those accepting countries. Then it becomes law.
With 85 per cent of countries lining up to sign the agreement on the first day — including the biggest emitters USA and China — these numbers would appear to be merely a matter of time.

How a 1.5-degree target survived

It snuck into the draft climate change agreement earlier this year, and much to everyone's surprise, a 1.5-degrees-Celsius target survived the gauntlet of UN climate change negotiations.

Erwin Jackson, deputy chief executive of the Climate Institute, said it would not be unprecedented for nations to walk away from an international treaty after signing it, but it would be quite unusual.
The USA, for example, walked away from the Kyoto Protocol on climate change after having signed it. Canada, meanwhile, ratified Kyoto and then walked away.
"The principle expectation is they go away and act in the spirit of the agreement they've just signed," Mr Jackson said.
"Essentially what we're doing is signing a contract with the world that we're going to act in the future in a way that is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 to 2 degrees."

When will Australia ratify the climate deal?

In Australia, ratifying the Paris agreement means tabling the document in Parliament and submitting it for scrutiny by the Joint Standing Committee on Treaties.
Australia has bipartisan support for the agreement, so no impediments are likely to be met there.

Word almost unravelled Paris deal

Just a few hours before the Paris climate accord was adopted, a change in language created a crisis that nearly saw the entire deal unravel.

But with precious time left to table anything in Parliament, let alone ratify the agreement before an election is called, when the treaty will actually be considered is up in the air.
The big player in the global deal — the USA — may find the road to ratifying the Paris deal a little rocky, especially with a fractious presidential campaign rolling out across the country.
Currently the US is world's second biggest emitter of climate changing greenhouse gases but President Barack Obama faces a senate dominated by the Republican party, many members of which are opposed to action to reduce emissions.
In office until January 2017, Mr Obama could bypass the senate using existing laws and his executive power to justify adopting the Paris agreement.
Whitehouse watchers say he is likely to push for a quick ratification of the agreement as a new president could refuse to adopt the agreement.

The world has entered a new phase of climate action

This sense of American urgency is a great benefit to the UN and the Paris agreement.
The rush to make it official from one of the world's most powerful countries builds momentum in the global community towards signing and solemnising the treaty.
The more that momentum builds, the more inescapable it seems, pulling even the most unwilling countries into action on climate change.
That is the essence of what the Paris agreement on climate change is all about: creating a sense of inevitability.
For more than 25 years, the world has dithered on how to address climate change. With the Paris agreement proceeding like a juggernaut, the world has entered a new phase.
From here, government action on climate change may not be seen to be the economically risky move it once was, because all countries are likely to be taking steps to reduce their emissions.
Business investment in cleaner technologies will not been seen to be as high risk because government climate policy will potentially create a growing green market.
While the Paris agreement, as it stands, will not solve the ongoing problem of climate change, the sense of momentum it has created could be enough to achieve the target of preventing warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees.
With global temperatures already at one degree warmer, and emissions continuing as strongly as ever, the world has to act quickly to achieve this target.
But with such a global display of support continuing for the Paris agreement, the political climate and business climate are the best they have ever been.