Extract from The Guardian
Malcolm Turnbull is trying to deny Labor a fight over policy detail
instead opting for reassuring pictures for the nightly news, which means
– despite three debates – many of the big questions remain unanswered
The final debate forced the leaders off script,
just a little, and in this election campaign that works best for Bill
Shorten. Sadly, it still didn’t elicit answers to a lot of the
election’s biggest questions, which is what would have worked best for
voters.
Malcolm Turnbull did not perform badly in the Friday night Facebook match, but his biggest achievement in this long campaign has been to keep the election spotlight tightly trained on a very small target – his own enthusiastic message of economic reassurance.
In the debate he was pushed into less comfortable territory – the national broadband network, the same sex marriage plebiscite he reluctantly inherited from Tony Abbott, the workability of his policies on climate change. He wasn’t forced into any great revelations but he had to address some of the issues he’s been avoiding.
Malcolm Turnbull did not perform badly in the Friday night Facebook match, but his biggest achievement in this long campaign has been to keep the election spotlight tightly trained on a very small target – his own enthusiastic message of economic reassurance.
In the debate he was pushed into less comfortable territory – the national broadband network, the same sex marriage plebiscite he reluctantly inherited from Tony Abbott, the workability of his policies on climate change. He wasn’t forced into any great revelations but he had to address some of the issues he’s been avoiding.
The Coalition was foreshadowing this “she’ll be right, no need to risk change” meta-message from early in the year, and it became very evident when opinion polls began showing the tax cuts for big business were actually pretty unpopular. The Coalition just shuffled the tax cut specifics down its list of talking points and turned up the broad-brush rhetoric.
On the Liberal party’s website the opening spiel talks about how the world is “very uncertain” but, luckily, Turnbull can offer the “political stability” with a “strong economic plan for jobs and families”. No mention of tax cuts, or any other policy. Even when you click on the link offering more information about a “strong new economy” you only get told about “tax cuts and incentives for small businesses”. It’s not until you read well down a separate link about small business that you find out the tax cut will, over time, extend to all businesses.
And if Turnbull is ever asked about the tax cuts now he emphasises how those benefits for big business are a long, long way away.
The Coalition is briefing that it is intending to go “small target” for the remainder of the campaign because voters are “disengaged”, but surely that’s inverting reality. One reason voters are disengaged is precisely because the Coalition has been running its small target strategy so very successfully from the start. There’s only so many times a person can listen to that speech about jobs and growth.
Turnbull has been refusing most long-form interviews in favour of reassuring pictures for the nightly news, wearing virtual reality glasses or high-visibility vests, to reinforce the impression that he has economic management totally in hand. He’s announced few new policies as he trundles round the nation. He’s deliberately trying to deny Labor the detailed fight that would give Shorten necessary momentum. Labor has often struggled to shift the focus to its policies on health and education.
And that’s why the debate favoured Shorten – it broadened the discussion and forced Turnbull to engage on other things. But that still wasn’t enough to force answers to the very many questions this election campaign have left hanging.
Here are just nine of the big, important policies where voters really deserve some answers before they vote.
Childcare. The payments are critical for many families. The Coalition’s policy – now slated to start in 2018 – would leave most, but not all, better off. But it is still linked to cuts to family tax benefits that have not passed the Senate and are unlikely to pass the new Senate either, given the opposition of Labor, the Greens and Nick Xenophon. And if they did, then in net terms some very low-income families, particularly sole parents, would be worse off. What happens if the Senate won’t budge? Will the government insist on the link? The government has not said.
Parental leave. Turnbull tweaked the Abbott government’s already drastically revised paid parental leave policy – but is still proposing arrangements that would cut the entitlements of mothers who get maternity leave from their employers as well as from the state, for some by $10,000 or more. The policy didn’t pass the Senate but hasn’t been entirely abandoned either. It’s also effectively a TBA.
Superannuation. The changes announced in the budget was unashamedly progressive, paring back tax concessions for the wealthy and helping low income earners save. But the Institute of Public Affairs is campaigning against them, many Liberals are reporting they have deeply upset the party’s “base” and the former minister Neil Brown, writing in the Spectator, says he is being approached by Liberal voters saying they will abandon the party because of this policy. Turnbull, when asked, has said the package will be legislated as announced, but after the election that promise will be subject to intense internal party pressure.
Hospitals. Turnbull has promised $2.9bn over three years and Shorten an extra $2bn. Both say they will negotiate a long-term agreement after that, which leaves the long-term funding of hospitals somewhat uncertain.
Climate change. As I’ve written before, the Coalition is carefully obfuscating about its climate policy plans. Most experts believe one part of its response will have to be a tightening of the existing “safeguards” scheme to set up a type of emissions trading scheme, if the policy is to have any chance of meeting the government’s own targets. But it is doing everything possible to avoid talking about that before the election. This also defers the internal reckoning between entrenched climate change sceptics and those pushing for something like a workable climate policy, and leaves voters forced to guess the outcome.
Universities. The Coalition is actually going to the election without a higher education policy, just an options paper and a promise it won’t proceed with full fee deregulation. That really is not sufficient.
Zombies. These are still hanging around from the 2014 budget, not spoken of much, but still factored in to the budget bottom line – policies including the aforementioned family benefits cuts, cuts to other “supplements” and forcing young people to wait one month to get the dole. For the unemployed and some of low-income families, the passage of these policies would make it almost possible to afford basic necessities, so it seems reasonable to ask whether they are going to happen.
Asylum. The harrowing reality of life on Manus Island and Nauru continues to seep out despite all efforts to conceal it. But the fate of the people detained there remains entirely unclear.
The big business tax cuts themselves. Besides the questions about their ultimate economic benefit, there is no guarantee the entire $48bn in tax cuts will ever happen. Labor and the Greens say they’d only vote for tax cuts for businesses with a turnover up to $2m. Nick Xenophon says he’d only consider them up to $10m turnover. Turnbull said, right after the budget, that he wanted to legislate the whole “plan” at once. But what will he do if the Senate insists on picking it apart?
This election is boring if you’re only listening to the government’s jobs and growth mantra. It feels that way because Turnbull is successfully training the nation’s attention on a narrow message that is more about feelings than facts. What would make it interesting is some specific policy answers. And perhaps some more debates.
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