Extract from The Guardian
Labor gained large swings in many seats but these swings were mostly not in the seats that were most marginal
Queensland plays a key role in every federal election. Out of the 30 seats in the state, up to 10 were in play in 2016.
While Labor gained substantial swings in many Queensland seats, and came close to winning at least five, they appear to have only won a single seat in the northern state, with the possibility of a second seat in late counting.
Labor gained large swings in many seats but these swings were mostly not in the seats that were most marginal, with Labor falling short in the two Queensland seats that were the most marginal Coalition seats in the country.
Labor has gained the seat of Longman off Wyatt Roy. Roy held Longman with a 6.9% margin but lost the seat after Labor gained a 7.75% swing.
The Liberal National party also suffered large swings in Dickson (5.1%), Flynn (5.5%), Dawson (4.3%) and Forde (3.8%) but fell short of winning all five.
Labor has gained a 6.1% swing in the Townsville-area seat of Herbert, held by Ewen Jones, and the seat is extremely close. At the time of writing, the LNP leads by only 12 votes and the seat is far too close to call.
While there were some big swings, Labor failed to gain the seats of Petrie and Capricornia, the two most marginal Coalition seats in Australia. Labor gained only 0.15% extra in Capricornia and suffered a 1.1% swing to the LNP in Petrie. In the inner-city marginal seat of Brisbane, the LNP increased their vote by 1.7%.
Marginal seats in Queensland will be even more critical to the next federal election. Assuming the LNP holds on in Herbert, Labor will need to gain eight seats to win a majority in 2019. Four of the five most marginal Coalition seats are in Queensland, with eight Queensland seats held by the LNP by less than 4%.
The swing to Labor was weakest in central Brisbane. The LNP gained ground in the seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith, and Labor made little progress in the marginal seat of Bonner.
Labor did better in the outer suburbs of Brisbane. They strengthened their hold on the southern Brisbane seats of Oxley and Rankin, and came close to winning Forde.
Labor gained big swings in the northern Brisbane seats of Longman and Dickson although, as mentioned before, they lost ground in Petrie.
Four seats on the Great Barrier Reef are all key marginal seats but there was a big variation in the swings in these seats. Labor made practically no progress in Capricornia, while gaining big swings in the safer neighbouring seats of Dawson, Flynn and Herbert.
Herbert, Flynn and Capricornia are now all in the top five most marginal seats in the country, while Dawson is also more marginal than at the last few elections.
It was hard to imagine before now but these marginal seats in central Queensland may be even more crucial to the result in 2019.
While Labor gained substantial swings in many Queensland seats, and came close to winning at least five, they appear to have only won a single seat in the northern state, with the possibility of a second seat in late counting.
Labor gained large swings in many seats but these swings were mostly not in the seats that were most marginal, with Labor falling short in the two Queensland seats that were the most marginal Coalition seats in the country.
Labor has gained the seat of Longman off Wyatt Roy. Roy held Longman with a 6.9% margin but lost the seat after Labor gained a 7.75% swing.
The Liberal National party also suffered large swings in Dickson (5.1%), Flynn (5.5%), Dawson (4.3%) and Forde (3.8%) but fell short of winning all five.
Labor has gained a 6.1% swing in the Townsville-area seat of Herbert, held by Ewen Jones, and the seat is extremely close. At the time of writing, the LNP leads by only 12 votes and the seat is far too close to call.
While there were some big swings, Labor failed to gain the seats of Petrie and Capricornia, the two most marginal Coalition seats in Australia. Labor gained only 0.15% extra in Capricornia and suffered a 1.1% swing to the LNP in Petrie. In the inner-city marginal seat of Brisbane, the LNP increased their vote by 1.7%.
Marginal seats in Queensland will be even more critical to the next federal election. Assuming the LNP holds on in Herbert, Labor will need to gain eight seats to win a majority in 2019. Four of the five most marginal Coalition seats are in Queensland, with eight Queensland seats held by the LNP by less than 4%.
The swing to Labor was weakest in central Brisbane. The LNP gained ground in the seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith, and Labor made little progress in the marginal seat of Bonner.
Labor did better in the outer suburbs of Brisbane. They strengthened their hold on the southern Brisbane seats of Oxley and Rankin, and came close to winning Forde.
Labor gained big swings in the northern Brisbane seats of Longman and Dickson although, as mentioned before, they lost ground in Petrie.
Four seats on the Great Barrier Reef are all key marginal seats but there was a big variation in the swings in these seats. Labor made practically no progress in Capricornia, while gaining big swings in the safer neighbouring seats of Dawson, Flynn and Herbert.
Herbert, Flynn and Capricornia are now all in the top five most marginal seats in the country, while Dawson is also more marginal than at the last few elections.
It was hard to imagine before now but these marginal seats in central Queensland may be even more crucial to the result in 2019.
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