Grogonomics
Australian economy

It’s not that part-time workers want to work more hours, just that there are more of them now

Annual data from the bureau of statistics on the labour force shows that more than one million workers last year changed jobs, with many changing occupations and industries. It also shows that the level of workers who are satisfied with the number of hours they are working each week is continuing its 45 year downward trend.
One of the commonly forgotten aspects when we look at the monthly employment figures is that not all new employment is to a person who was previously unemployed or out of the workforce. Each month a significant number of people change jobs.
In the 12 months to February 2018, more than a million workers changed jobs. But while that number appears massive, somewhat contrary to the narrative that people are more likely to work numerous jobs than in the past, the data suggest that people are now more likely to be sticking with the same employer.
Just 8.1% of the 12 and half million employees changed jobs in the past year – well down on the record 19.5% in 1989.
Over two thirds of those who changed jobs did so to change the number of hours – although only around a third changed from part-time to full-time or vice-versa. And more than half not only changed industries but also their occupation:
What this annual data highlights is the great change in the basis of work since the 1960s.
In 1962 almost all workers – whether working full-time or part-time – were happy with their hours. From the early 1970s through to the end of the 1980s this level of satisfied workers trended down – both due to economic downturns throughout much of the 1970s and the early 1980s recession, and the influx of women workers into the labour force.
The 1990 recession saw a major fall in the number of satisfied workers, and while the period of strong economic growth in the 1990s and early 2000s saw the level improve, it has never returned to the pre-1990 levels.
But then once the GFC hit the level of satisfied workers again fell – to be now at a near record low, having improved slightly from the low point in 2017:
The figures show that men are generally more satisfied with their hours than are women – but that both genders are less satisfied than in the past:
In 2018, underemployed part-time workers accounted for just under 9% of all workers, which was well above the 6.6% level of 1993. But 1993 was the year that recorded the highest ever level of part-time workers who were underemployed. In that year 28.1% of part-time workers wanted more hours, compared to 26.4% in 2018:
It highlights the difficulty with tackling underemployment – it is not that part-time workers are suddenly wanting more hours than in the past, it is that part-time workers make up a larger share of workers than in the recent past.
The percentage of both men and women part-time workers who are underemployed is actually little changed from 2009 despite during that time underemployment levels overall have risen:
The annual data also gives some insight into the numbers of people who are marginally attached to the workforce – those who are not technically unemployed because they are not actively looking for work.
There is a suggestion by some that not including such people in the labour force figures hides the true level of unemployment. But what the data shows is that the percentage of such people has not changed significantly at all in recent years and is, if anything, lower than in the past.
And while it is important to track the level of disaffected job searchers, mostly this can be done through changes in the participation rate. Certainly the search for work can be so difficult as to drive people to give up. The data however suggests that people have slightly less difficulty now than in the past:
For most job seekers the biggest change since the GFC has been the increase in competition for each job – 17% said in 2018 that was the main difficulty in finding work, compared to just 8% in 2008:
The annual data of labour force participation gives us a chance to take a long-term view of how the economy has changed for workers. It presents a picture that shows that the solutions to issues of underemployment are rather complex.
While the level of underemployment has grown, the data shows that part-time workers overall are not becoming more eager to work more hours, just that there are more part-time workers now than in the past
This presents challenges for policy makers seeking to reduce underemployment as it requires tackling large scale changes in the economy rather than hoping to see employers of part-time workers increase their hours, through better economic growth (or lower company tax). It will require arresting the major shift of the past 45 years of work going from full-time to the more flexible but less satisfying part-time.
• Greg Jericho is a Guardian Australia columnist