Extract from ABC News
Analysis
The Prime Minister's visit to flood-ravaged Lismore was always going to be a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't.
He was always going to risk a confrontation with angry locals. And yet not going would have been worse.
The great fear was a repeat of the angry scenes in Cobargo after the Black Summer bushfires. Everyone remembers the forced handshakes and awkward attempts at empathy. It was a political disaster for Scott Morrison.
The risk of a repeat performance in Lismore was a high-stakes gamble with an election now so close.
In the end, the Prime Minister chose to play it safe. Too safe. He visited victims who took shelter in their roof as the waters rose, a dairy farmer who had to bury 60 head of cattle, and a paint business that lost everything. "It broke me up," Morrison said.
We'll have to take his word for it. The media wasn't invited. This was, we were told, because none of these flood victims wanted a "camera shoved in their face". Not even a single camera, apparently. We'll have to take his word for that, too.
By contrast, the NSW Premier has spent days on the ground, at times copping an angry spray or two in front of the cameras and showing contrition. Dominic Perrottet acknowledged failure, offered an apology and promised a review.
On balance, avoiding angry scenes on camera was probably the wise political choice, but it says a lot about his current standing that the Prime Minister couldn't risk walking down the streets of Lismore during a crisis like this.
Disasters are upping demands on Defence
At least he didn't come empty handed. Morrison announced additional disaster payments, mental health support, a pledge to unlock more of the $4.8 billion Emergency Response Fund ("not tens of millions of dollars, I'm talking more than that") and an apology of sorts. He was sorry the level of support could never meet expectations at a time like this.
There was also an acknowledgement "Australia is becoming a harder country to live in" when it comes to natural disasters, but he quickly shot down any expectation of a more ambitious climate policy as a result. The Prime Minister is not about to open up that can of worms with the National Party again.
So, what is the government doing to better prepare for the accepted likelihood of more catastrophes on this scale? Whether it likes it or not, there is now an expectation in the community that the Defence Force will be on hand to help when disaster strikes and a community is completely cut off. If not on the day a flood or fire hits, then certainly in the week that follows.
The way the government has used Defence over recent years has only fuelled this expectation.
Since the 2019 election, the last Australian soldiers have been pulled out of Afghanistan, our longest running war, leaving it to the Taliban. ADF personnel have instead been deployed to deal with all manner of domestic chores. Soldiers are on hand for almost every task.
They've helped run hotel quarantine, take COVID swabs for PCR tests, carry out contact tracing, police lockdown rules, run the vaccine roll-out and more recently staff an aged care system in crisis.
That's before we get to natural disasters: the Black Summer bushfires, Cyclone Yasa in Fiji, the 2021 NSW flood crisis, the Tongan tsunami and now the 2022 flood crisis in NSW and Queensland.
And as the Prime Minister seems to acknowledge, the trend of more frequent and more intense natural disasters will only continue. The demands on Defence to carry out humanitarian and relief work both here and in our Pacific neighbourhood will only intensify in the years ahead.
A fourth service within the ADF?
At the same time, the demands on Defence to prepare for its traditional war-fighting role are also growing. As the Prime Minister noted in his "arc of autocracy" speech this week, "Australia faces its most difficult and dangerous security environment in 80 years".
Nearly two years ago, Morrison announced plans for a modest increase in the size of the ADF. An additional 800 personnel would be recruited over four years. It's now clear to most observers this won't be nearly enough. Not with the security outlook rapidly deteriorating and demands for disaster relief escalating.
Some security experts have argued for a restructure of Defence to create a new element or even fourth service within the ADF (sitting alongside Army, Navy and Airforce) dedicated to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR). It could recruit personnel and purchase equipment with the specific purpose of responding to floods, fires, cyclones and tsunamis.
Others argue setting up a new force would be hugely expensive and too much of a diversion for Defence, which already has enough on its plate. They say it's the states who need to step up. They've traditionally been responsible for disaster response, run the civilian agencies that lead emergency management and should be investing more, rather than being given any incentive to spend less.
Either way, it's hard to argue the current system is working. Not when so many were left stranded in northern NSW for so long.
Some want more focus on resilience, prevention
The royal commission that followed the Black Summer Bushfires made a number of recommendations relevant to the current flood disaster. Among them was the need for more training between Defence and state-run agencies to help build a better understanding of capacity, capability and command structures.
Darren Chester was the Minister for Defence Personnel at the time of the Black Summer fires, before being dumped when Barnaby Joyce returned to the Nationals leadership. He now devotes much of his attention to the bushfire recovery efforts in his seat of Gippsland and has been watching the unfolding flood crisis in NSW and Queensland with interest.
"The ADF can expect to be called out more often for humanitarian aid and disaster relief missions at home," Chester says. He stops short of calling for a new HADR force within Defence but highlights the royal commission recommendation.
"At the very least, there should be more training opportunities to exercise the civilian and military capabilities," he says.
Chester also wants more focus from both levels of government on resilience and prevention.
In what could be an election focused in part on national security, the role and structure of Defence in dealing with catastrophic natural disasters is worthy of debate.
David Speers is the host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.
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