Extract from ABC News
In late July, the head of Niger's presidential guard General Omar Tchiani led a military coup and named himself head of state.
It's the seventh coup in West Africa in three years.
There's been a seemingly unstoppable wave of them, washing along the edge of the Sahara, gaining strength each time.
Soon after the coup, a small group of Nigeriens gathered in the capital Niamey, waving flags and chanting "long live Putin" and "down with France".
So what are Russia and France doing in West Africa?
It turns out, while everyone has their eyes on the war in Ukraine, West Africa is threatening to descend into a proxy war between Russia and the West.
France digs up the dirt
There's a long history of foreign powers landing in African nations and laying claim to land, resources, even people.
France is in the region for two main reasons — to fight terrorism, and to dig up its resources.
For more than 50 years, Niger's uranium has supplied a big proportion of France's electricity.
And for the most part, Nigeriens put up with it because the French provide locals living near the mines with good healthcare and infrastructure.
But they've been increasingly frustrated by the arrangement, with almost all the profits being shipped offshore.
Then when extremism took off in West Africa in 2012, France had another reason to stay.
The Malian government and military called in the French to help them deal with a rebellion, led by militants from the Tuareg ethnic group.
When Africa was carved up by colonialists, the Tuaregs ended up without a homeland of their own, and for decades they've fought rebellions to claim one.
With assistance from al Qaeda, the Tuaregs laid claim to half of Mali and imposed strict Sharia law.
Mali called in the French, who fought back and won, but the subsequent Islamist insurgency caused a wave of refugees.
The French didn't want those refugees showing up in France, so they stayed in Mali and settled in for a long war, with support from their NATO allies.
But since then, extremism has increased, and millions of people have been displaced in Mali and its neighbouring countries, including Niger.
The Sahel — the strip of countries that runs along the southern edge of the Sahara — is now the epicentre of global terrorism.
Support for the French sours
In 2020, the Malian military, unhappy with their government's and France's failure to control the terrorists, staged the first coup in the region.
When the new military government took power and needed help, they called in the Russians.
And when Russian President Vladimir Putin needs a job done but doesn't want to get his hands dirty, he sends in his private army — the Wagner Group.
The group was led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who Russia says died in a plane crash this week.
The head of US military operations in Africa, General Stephen Townsend, said he believes "the Malian government tab for Wagner's services is $10 million a month".
For context, that's about 4 per cent of Mali's entire government budget.
"I think they will have to trade in kind with natural resources such as gold and other minerals, gemstones, those kinds of things," General Townsend added.
In exchange for their services, Wagner is given access to Mali's gold mining operations.
Generals in other countries across the Sahel saw the Wagner Group's work in Mali and thought it looked like a good deal.
The wave of coups washed out of Mali, and into the rest of the Sahel.
Coups build momentum with Russia's help
In five months there were successful coups in Guinea, Sudan and Burkina Faso.
All of those governments now have deals with Wagner, or the support of the Russian government.
A few weeks ago there was just one final Sahel country to still have a democratic government and a close relationship with France and the US — Niger.
But then in July, Niger faced a coup, and the president's bodyguard took power.
It appears to have been done without the help of Wagner or Russia, but that didn't matter — supporters waved the Russian flag and attacked the French embassy.
Eleven surrounding countries who still have close ties to France and the US have threatened to invade Niger if the president isn't reinstated.
Mali and Burkina Faso, both ruled by military juntas and aligned with Russia, say if that happens, they'll join the fight to defend Niger's coup leaders.
The president has not been reinstated, and so Niger is waiting to see whether the West African nations will follow through on warnings of military intervention
If the coup leaders in Niger are able to hold onto power, it will complete an extraordinary transition in global politics.
In less than three years, Western influence in this key part of the world will have collapsed.
If the Wagner group can secure Niger as a client, Russia will have a powerful position in West Africa, and access to its enormous resources.
France, the US, and their allies in the region are desperate to prevent this.
A war in West Africa between US and Russian allies is the last thing anyone wants. The region is holding its breath.
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