Extract from ABC News
In Vladimir Putin's Russia, nothing is ever as it seems.
But if the shocking videos are to be believed, his mercenary warlord met a fiery end in the skies over western Russia this week.
Yevgeny Prigozhin's death may never be confirmed, but it appears that several of Putin's enemies have been killed or demoted in a matter of days.
If the Russian state was somehow involved, it appears as if the swift and brutal operation harkens back to the Night of the Long Knives.
In 1934, Nazi leader Adolf Hitler sensed mutiny was afoot among the paramilitary organisation known as the Brownshirts.
Over three bloodstained days, at least 85 men were shot — most by firing squad — as Hitler purged perceived traitors from the ranks of Nazi power.
Hitler was especially fixated on cutting down the Prigozhin-like head of the Brownshirts, his former best friend-turned-enemy, Ernst Röhm.
The purge helped Hitler consolidate his power, leaving him as the sole head of Nazi Germany, ready to plunge Europe into war and genocide.
The Night of the Long Knives also helped Hitler shape his image as a homicidal dictator who would do anything to stay in power.
Whether the apparent downing of a Wagner plane stacked with Putin's enemies was an accident or an assassination, Russia's president reaps the rewards.
The only question for many Russia watchers is why Putin may have waited two months to make his move against a man who publicly humiliated him.
Russia weeds out Prigozhin's sympathisers
Since Prigozhin took the world by surprise with his audacious coup in June, there have been signs of a quiet purge within Russia's military ranks.
Military commanders have been demoted and promoted in surprise reshuffles since last year's invasion of Ukraine in a seeming attempt to get Russia's failing campaign back on track.
But in recent weeks, rumours have swirled about whether changes in the military command have had less to do with Kyiv and more to do with June's aborted mutiny.
Sergei Surovikin, one of the country's most senior generals, dropped out of public view shortly after Prigozhin's failed coup and has not been seen since.
Surovikin, who is better known as General Armageddon due to his brutal tactics in the Syrian war, was understood to have been sympathetic to Prigozhin's mutiny, despite publicly urging Wagner fighters to stop their opposition to the military leadership.
The 56-year-old was on good terms with Prigozhin and Russian authorities were understood to be checking if he had played a hand in the uprising, although the Kremlin played down the report as a lot of speculation and gossip.
While it's unclear if he directly supported the coup, this week he was relieved of his post as air force chief, a source told Russian outlet Ria Novosti, on the same day the Wagner chief's plane came crashing down in a lonely Russian field.
"The suspicion that has potentially fallen on senior serving officers highlights how Prigozhin's abortive insurrection has worsened existing faultlines within Russia's national security community," the UK's Ministry of Defence wrote in an intelligence assessment after Surovikin's disappearance, as cited by the Guardian.
He is not the only military figure to come under a cloud of suspicion over the mutiny. Valery Gerasimov, Russia's top general, also disappeared for two weeks following the events of June 24 before reappearing in a video on July 10, ordering subordinates to destroy Ukrainian missile sites.
There was speculation Gerasmiov had been detained for questioning over the mutiny, despite the general featuring in many of Prigozhin's tirades against the top brass.
But the general appears to be back in Putin's good graces if his public appearances are anything to go by, likely playing an important role as loyal aide and possible scapegoat.
Russian Colonel General Gennady Zhidko, who oversaw Russia's war effort in Ukraine before Surovikin took over, has also been conspicuously absent from public life.
He was sacked by Putin for continuing failures in Russia's special military campaign, and died last week after what officials said was a "lengthy illness".
Zhidko is believed to be the seventh general to have died since February 24 last year.
While there is no evidence of foul play, the timing is curious.
An official investigation has been ordered to determine the cause of Prigozhin's plane crash, but in the meantime experts believe there are signs it may be part of an elaborate plot.
"I think that Prigozhin identified himself quite publicly as a threat to the Putin regime, and historically, threats to the future regime don't particularly live or live freely for a very long time," says Isabella Currie, a sessional academic at La Trobe University, whose research focuses on the Wagner Group and its role in international relations.
How the plane crash unfolded
The plane, understood to be carrying seven passengers, including Prigozhin, left Moscow on an almost cloudless Wednesday evening.
The Brazilian Embraer jet known as the Legacy 600 is considered to be one of the best private jets on the market, with a solid safety record.
Everything appeared normal as the flight reached its cruising altitude of 28,000 feet shortly after take-off, according to flight tracking data.
But at 6:11pm (1:00am Thursday AEST), it fell out of the sky, crashing into a forest near the village of Kuzhenkino, in Russia's western Tver region.
The aircraft had made a "sudden downward vertical," according to Ian Petchenik of Flightradar24, who believes whatever caused the plane to fall, "happened quickly".
Within about 30 seconds, it plummeted more than 8,000 feet and stopped sending tracking signals.
"They may have been wrestling [with the aircraft] after whatever happened," Petchenik said.
Analysts who reviewed footage of the crash say it appeared as if the plane was trailing a lot of smoke and some structural pieces were missing as it fell.
"An aircraft like this … they just don't catastrophically drop out of the sky without something very unusual happening," veteran science and aerospace reporter Miles O'Brien told CNN.
A team of investigators is now at work sifting through the debris to determine what caused the plane to crash, but it is not certain if the cause will ever be known.
The men on board
According to the flight manifest, the plane flying from Moscow to St Petersburg was a veritable who's who of Wagner's leadership.
The most famous of all on the passenger list was Prigozhin. But it appears that Dmitry Utkin was also on board.
Tall, muscly, shaven and adorned with Nazi tattoos on his neck, Utkin was a retired spy who is believed to be the true founder of Wagner.
While Prigozhin won lucrative contracts, Utkin was the right-hand man in charge of overall combat training.
He has been named in Western sanctions as the group's tactical leader, overseeing recruitment and strategy while Prigozhin bankrolled its activities.
Another man believed to have gone down with the plane was Valery Chekalov, Prigozhin's rumoured deputy and head of security.
"Both of them were very key figures in this Wagner model," said Ms Currie.
"Chekalov was essentially [Prighozhin's] bodyguard, he managed muscle and he's been an active member of the Wagner group for a really long time."
Mysterious plane crashes have been used to down Russian enemies of the state before, though experts say poisonings are far more in vogue these days.
"Russian services have assassinated people overseas before — defectors and other people and we know that poisoning has been one of the means of choice here. In this case, Russia may have been happy to take this kind of overt step," Rob Lee, a Russian military analyst at Foreign Policy Research Institute, told the podcast Geopolitics Decanted.
"And I think the other factor here, too, is that it wasn't just Prigozhin, it was Utkin too, it was all these other important figures on that plane."
Prigozhin and his allies were clearly "marked" men, according to Ms Currie.
"I think he just became too vocal. He was gaining too much publicity and was becoming too big a figure," she said.
"We were counting his days down."
What can we expect to unfold next?
The Kremlin now appears to be making moves to seize control of the shadowy network of operations that once belonged to Prigozhin.
Wagner may have been forced out of Ukraine after the rebellion, but the paramilitary group was still extremely active in Africa.
"There have been whispers that a new mercenary style outfit or paramilitary outfit is actually going to be replacing Wagner in Africa," Ms Currie said.
"It will be important to watch the deployments in Africa over the next few weeks.
"I think that's going to be where we will get an idea of what the next steps are about whether this blueprint of influence and violence will continue to operate in the same style or if it's going to shift and we'll be looking at something new."
Even as he became globally famous, Prigozhin's world grew ever smaller.
A raid of his homes and offices in June uncovered gold bars, US dollars, and a plethora of wigs and disguises in case he ever needed to go on the run.
But for whatever reason, he decided to stay in Russia. It may have been a choice that cost him his life.
The last we ever saw of Prigozhin was in an undated video released by the Grey Zone Telegram channel, which frequently publishes official Wagner statements.
"We will all go to hell," he said in his final message to the world.
"But in hell, we will be the best."
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