Extract from ABC News
Analysis
Fears that tensions over the Gaza war would spill into a broader regional conflict have been realised as the United Kingdom and United States conduct air strikes on targets inside Yemen.
Washington and London authorised their jets to attack what they called strongholds of the Houthi rebels, a fundamentalist Shia-Islam group aligned with Iran.
The attack comes after the Houthis carried out a two-month campaign of drone attacks on ships in the Red Sea in what they said was support for the Palestinians of Gaza.
The Houthis publicly said they would be targeting Israeli ships, but in recent weeks have escalated their attacks on ships with no Israeli connections.
There are some complicated and high-stakes dynamics playing out.
Iran is the leader of the Shia Islam world and Saudi Arabia the leader of Sunni Islam which has seen the Yemen civil war becoming in effect a proxy war between the two Middle Eastern powers.
Israel is, of course, backed by the US.
So as the UK and the US strike the Iran-backed group in Yemen, they are being drawn into the regional conflict.
Many in the Middle East do not want a war between Iran and the West, but to some degree that is what's happening with the Houthis and Hezbollah as Iran's proxies.
For Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden, they have not had their own military flying over Israel or Gaza although they have backed Netanyahu's retaliation for October 7.
But now, their own jets are in the sky.
Echoes of the Iraq war
While these are early days in the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, there are shades of Iraq to this growing conflict.
As with Iraq, in this new conflict with the Iranian-backed Houthis, the US and the UK are leading the military operation.
But if the pattern of Iraq were to repeat itself, then the US and the UK would quickly pressure allies such as Australia to join the coalition.
As with Iraq, Washington and London always prefer as many coalition partners as possible — that strength-in-numbers helps with resources while at the same time shares the military and reputational risks if, as with Iraq, it goes worse than military planners expected.
For the US and UK, Australia will be a particular target to provide resources.
Both the US and UK will have the view that now the three countries are partners in AUKUS, the countries are closer military allies than they have ever been before.
Which means one in, all in.
Today, Biden said Australia was one of a number of allies that had provided support for the initial strikes.
But recently, Australia rejected a US request for a naval ship to join the coalition trying to protect the Red Sea's shipping trade from drone attacks by Houthis.
The Albanese government was criticised by the Opposition for not providing more support.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said of the decision: "Our resources have been prioritised in our region, the Indo-Pacific. We've played an important role in freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and the operations that we're conducting as well with the Philippines."
However, if the battle with the Houthis escalates — for example if Iran decides to provide the Houthis with more weapons — then Australia will come under more pressure to send serious military resources.
Houthis emboldened by civil war
The Yemen civil war began in 2014 when the Houthi rebels began attacks against the government's security forces.
The Houthis are aligned with Iran, and the Yemeni Government is aligned with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
In early 2023, China brokered a peace agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and as a result the tensions between the Houthis and the government eased.
As a fundamentalist group, the Houthis enforce the restrictions on women that Iran imposes. Human Rights Watch reported that in order to travel, women in Yemen in areas under Houthi control were required to be accompanied at all times by a "mahram" – a male relative.
"The mahram requirement bars women from travelling without a male guardian or evidence of their written approval," Human Rights Watch found.
While there are still some tensions, the worst of the civil war appears to be over for the moment at least and amid those developments, the Houthis have convinced themselves they won the conflict.
So emboldened with that sense, they felt empowered to go beyond the borders of Yemen and cause chaos in the Red Sea, one of the world's busiest shipping channels.
The Houthis have been giving every indication that they intend to escalate their attacks.
The US Central Command said that in one 24-hour period this week, UK and US forces shot down 18 attack drones, two anti-ship cruise missiles and one anti-ship ballistic missile in the Red Sea.
Tensions are rising quickly.
And as the Middle East has shown many times before, rising tensions can quickly turn into serious wars.
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