Abstract. December was the 7th
consecutive month of record-shattering global temperature, driven by
the combination of a moderately strong El Nino and a large decrease of
Earth’s albedo. The El Nino will fade in the next few months, but we
anticipate that the string of record monthly temperatures will continue
to a total of 12 and possibly 13 months because of Earth’s unprecedented
energy imbalance. By May the 12-month running-mean global temperature
relative to 1880-1920 should be +1.6-1.7°C and not fall below +1.4 ±
0.1°C during the next La Nina minimum. Thus, given the planetary energy
imbalance, it will be clear that the 1.5°C ceiling has been passed for
all practical purposes.
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