Extract from ABC News
Political momentum has ebbed and flowed in the first fortnight of parliament for the year.
Week one was a confidence boost for Labor as it wedged the Coalition over re-jigged tax cuts.
Week two has been a reality check, with the Coalition able to apply a fresh blowtorch over the issue that caused Labor such a headache at the end of the year: released immigration detainees.
The opposition was given an opening after the Home Affairs Department tabled a list at Senate estimates revealing 149 people have been released since last year's High Court ruling, including seven convicted of murder or attempted murder and 37 convicted sex offenders.
Labor MPs privately grumbled the department didn't give enough heads-up this was coming, as the immigration minister Andrew Giles faced an onslaught in Question Time. The opposition has demanded to know how the 149 are being monitored, why some aren't wearing ankle bracelets, and why no applications have yet been lodged to re-detain them under laws rushed through parliament before the end of the year. The minister's answers haven't always shed a great deal of light.
Amidst the parliamentary ping-pong between Labor's hard-sell of its tax cuts and the Coalition's alarm at convicted immigrants on the loose, it's become clear all sides are keeping a close eye on another issue which could prove to be a far more powerful vote driver: housing.
Of course there's no consensus on the best solution, but everyone wants to show they understand many are facing a housing crisis and that they're taking it seriously.
Housing affordability slides, voter anxiety grows
Labor this week introduced legislation for its promised "Help to Buy" scheme, which would give 40,000 low-income households a chance to co-purchase a home with the government, which would take a 30 per cent stake (or 40 per cent for a newly built home).
It's Labor's latest housing measure, and surely won't be the last, given housing affordability continues to slide and voter anxiety continues to grow over the ability of young Australians to ever buy a home.
The NSW Productivity Commissioner even suggested somewhat alarmingly this week, that Sydney could become a city "with no grandchildren" as soaring house prices force many young families to leave.
The Greens have made housing their frontline issue in this term of parliament, appealing to renters who feel neither major party is doing anything for them.
The prime minister's decision to break a promise on the Stage 3 tax cuts because "circumstances have changed" has given the Greens an opening to demand he also shift on negative gearing.
If it's good enough to move on the cost of living crisis, why not the property crisis?
The Greens are demanding negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions be wound back, along with the rent freeze the party (unsuccessfully) demanded last year, in return for its support on the government's Help to Buy scheme.
The prime minister says there will be no such deal. Still, he's quite deliberately not ruling out taking some further reform to the next election.
The Liberals are not ignoring housing, either
The Liberals aren't interested in touching either negative gearing, or the government's Help to Buy Scheme, but they're not ignoring the housing issue either.
Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor has recommitted to the policy the Coalition took to the last election, allowing buyers to take up to $50,000 from their superannuation to invest in their first home.
The criticism of this policy, as with Labor's Help to Buy, is that it will only add to demand, pushing up prices further.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton signals he wants to lower demand by lowering migration. Labor can see this coming and is determined to tackle the problem of record migration well before it becomes a painful election issue. The intake of foreign students, for example, has already been significantly driven down.
Liberals have long seen home ownership as a pre-requisite to voters adopting a more conservative world view. If young people aren't entering the housing market, they're less likely to vote Liberal.
Liberal MP Keith Wolahan, who represents the outer-Melbourne seat of Menzies, told parliament this week, "the Australian dream is now under threat and solving a problem starts with recognising you have one".
"It is no wonder that those who are not in landowning families are losing faith," Wolohan warned. It's precisely what the Greens are arguing.
Nor is this sentiment about families losing faith over the housing crisis uniquely Australian.
In the UK, which is facing similar problems, Housing Secretary Michael Gove issued a stark warning this week.
"If people think that markets are rigged and democracy isn't listening to them, then you get – and this is the worrying thing to me – an increasing number of young people saying, 'I don't believe in democracy, I don't believe in markets'."
In other words, it's not just the fate of political parties at stake. Gove is arguing the housing crisis is eroding confidence in the whole system of democracy.
David Speers is National Political Lead and host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.
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