Extract from ABC News
Analysis
Millions of Australians will hit the road this weekend, filling beaches, campsites and caravan parks right around the country for the Easter break.
It's a well-established routine for many — jump in the car, and head north, south, east or west.
But there's one thing that has changed over that time.
Two and a half decades ago, Australia's Easter weekend highways were dominated by family sedans like Holden Commodores, Ford Falcons, and Mitsubishi Magnas.
Today, none of those cars are still in production and the roads look very different.
Big utes and even bigger SUVs rule the roads. The Ford Ranger, Toyota Hilux and Isuzu D-Max — all large utes — were the top-three selling cars in Australia last year.
The Albanese government says it wants more electric vehicles (EV) in Australian car yards and Australian driveways.
But it won't put a figure on what it is aiming for. Unlike places like the United States and European Union, Australia doesn't have an EV target.
The government says it wants to provide more "choice" to Australians, in the hope they will choose themselves to rapidly adopt EVs.
But how likely is that?
The politics of compromise
The government seems poised to deliver its primary EV ambition for this term of parliament, and a fairly key plank of its emissions-cutting agenda.
It announced its revised New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) this week, which caps the total emissions of the cars a manufacturer can sell in a single year.
So if Toyota wants to keep selling more fuel-loving Hiluxs, it'll have to sell more hybrids to try and stay under the cap — or buy credits from competitors like Tesla.
In a key moment, Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Transport Minister Catherine King shared the stage with the CEOs of Toyota, Hyundai and Tesla, along with leaders of some of the industry's key peak bodies.
It was a sign that the industry was (largely) on board, and a damaging fight with the country's most popular car brands had been avoided.
But there were concessions.
The government's original proposal has been weakened, particularly in its treatment of utes and large SUVs.
The major ute brands now face a less challenging path to 2030, going from a 60 per cent drop in emissions down to 50 per cent.
And some popular SUVs — like the Ford Everest, Toyota LandCruiser and Nissan Patrol — will get more generous treatment.
The changes got Toyota over the line, while still labelling the proposal "challenging".
And the big EV manufacturers also endorsed the plan, in the hope it ensures something gets legislated after decades of lobbying.
But they warn without other changes — it might all be for nought.
NVES 'futile' without big tax changes
While executives from Tesla and Hyundai were on stage with Mr Bowen and Ms King, another big EV player was not.
Polestar, owned by Volvo, was absent.
The company backs the revised NVES, arguing the priority has to be legislating something, but noting it's a fair way short of what they wanted.
"We now have an additional 80 thousand SUVs being added to the light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment and emissions targets relaxed," a company spokesperson said in a statement.
"It's certainly not a concession that Polestar wanted to see, but if that gets Australia closer to having a New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, then it's a compromise we're willing to accept."
The company has also pointed the finger at two policies it argues are counter to any government ambition to get more Australians in less-polluting cars.
Many large utes can qualify for fringe benefits and luxury car tax exemptions.
It's widely suspected the benefits have helped propel the popularity of large utes, as they attract tax benefits other cars do not.
And it's been a source of frustration for the EV industry – and climate advocates trying to reduce Australia's transport emissions – for some time.
Polestar says the policies are pushing people into bigger cars they might not otherwise buy.
"Trying to shift buyers towards more efficient vehicles is futile if FBT and LCT concessions are still in place," the spokesperson said.
EVs do qualify for some of the same fringe benefits tax breaks, and a more generous luxury car tax too.
Putting a number on it
The government has been deliberately reluctant to set a target, or even a forecast, on EVs as a slice of the future Australian car market.
The "impact analysis" released alongside its NVES proposal last month contained a chart mapping what EV sales would look like without the policy, suggesting EVs would hit 50 per cent of new car sales around 2035.
But remarkably, despite the intention of the policy being to lift EV sales, the document didn't make any kind of guess as to what EV sales would look like with the policy.
There's a bit of political baggage to this one.
Former Labor leader Bill Shorten took a target of 50 per cent EV sales by 2030 to the 2019 federal election, where Scott Morrison claimed a "miracle" victory.
Since then, Labor has avoided anything that looks like a similar target — possibly fearing it might add weight to the Coalition's claims of a "ute and family car tax".
EV industry figures say while a target would certainly be welcome, it's also not an absolute necessity.
They point to various state targets that have been announced but don't come with any policy behind them to drive actual change.
And they argue the NVES is a tangible policy that will make a meaningful difference in getting more EV offerings in front of Australian buyers.
Some estimate that even without a target in place, Australia will wind up well beyond Mr Shorten's 50 per cent target by the time 2030 rolls around.
It would amount to some solid growth, given they are roughly 10 per cent of the market at present.
Behyad Jafari from the EV Council said targets are a nice idea, but actual policies make the difference.
"These policies are just there to make sure that those vehicles are available for them to buy," he said.
"That people put them on ships and send them to Australia, that charging stations are being built across the country.
"That's far more important. And I think that's what we're seeing."
It's hoped the cost of EVs might fall over time, with cheaper models and more competition in the market (particularly under the NVES).
As for whether the cost of big utes and SUVs will rise under the NVES, the government insists there's no evidence to suggest that's the case.
Market analysis conducted on the government's tougher original model suggested otherwise.
Driving a cultural change
There's no doubt big utes are useful for big fishing, camping, surfing or skiing road trips.
But some in the EV industry argue the Australian love affair with big utes is a little overplayed.
They point out that fishing, camping, surfing and skiing were all just as popular 25 years ago as they are now when the long weekend highways were dominated by Commodores and Falcons towing boats and trailers.
And they argue what has changed is tax breaks that make buying a big ute an appealing financial decision, even with their demand for diesel.
There's also a hope that Australia will see an influx of better and more affordable electric utes and SUVs in the years ahead, and that more charging infrastructure eases the range anxiety that still worries potential buyers.
Until then, there is likely a car culture war on the horizon.
The NVES has only just landed in parliament, and the Coalition has signalled it will fight the policy as an attack on those who love a long weekend away, or a bigger car to get the kids to school.
It seems ready to test whether it's a strategy that works, seemingly hoping the 2019-era "war on the weekend" line adopted by the then-Morrison government still has some currency (even if it hasn't quite returned yet).
The Greens are also hoping to use their leverage and extract some political concessions from the government, particularly around offshore gas approvals.
But the government will be quietly confident the Greens won't ultimately stand in the way of a policy they've spent years lobbying for, even if it doesn't have the ambition they would like.
The NVES will put more EVs in front of Australian buyers.
It's up to Australians as to whether they're ready to make the switch.
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