James Hansen - Global Warming Acceleration: Hope vs Hopium

 

Fig. 1. Local and global (the number in upper right corner) temperature trends in two periods.

Global Warming Acceleration: Hope vs Hopium 29 March 2024 James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha

Accumulating evidence supports the interpretation in our Pipeline paper: decreasing human-made aerosols increased Earth’s energy imbalance and accelerated global warming in the past decade. Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing, physically independent quantities, were tied together by United Nations IPCC climate assessments that rely excessively on global climate models (GCMs) and fail to measure climate forcing by aerosols. IPCC’s best estimates for climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing both understate reality. Preservation of global shorelines and global climate patterns – the world humanity is adapted to – likely will require at least partly reversing global warming. Required actions and time scale are undefined. A bright future for today’s young people is still possible, but its attainment is hampered by precatory (wishful thinking) policies that do not realistically account for global energy needs and aspirations of nations with emerging economies. An alternative is needed to the GCM-dominated perspective on climate science. We will bear a heavy burden if we stand silent or meek as the world continues on its present course.

Our paper, Global Warming in the Pipeline,[1] was greeted by a few scientists, among the most active in communication with the public, with denial. Our friend Michael Mann, e.g., with a large public following, refused to concede that global warming is accelerating. We mention Mike because we know that he won’t take this notation personally. Accelerated global warming is the first significant change of global warming rate since 1970. It is important because it confirms the futility of “net zero” hopium that serves as present energy policy and because we are running short of time to avoid passing the point of no return. We will focus on advancing our research now and completing Sophie’s Planet in 2024, so we must limit our interactions this year. We will send out updates every other month for the remainder of this year, as described in a recent note.[2] This is the March update.

Fig. 2. Zonal-mean temperature trends, plotted linear in latitude (a) and area-weighted (b).

Continue Reading