Sunday, 30 June 2024

The Holy Grail of physics: The quest to find quantum gravity

Extract from ABC News

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There's a problem with gravity. 

It's a problem that Albert Einstein identified more than 100 years ago.

It's a problem we could be on the cusp of solving, or that could take another century to untangle.

And the problem is that we don't fully understand how gravity works. 

"People have been hitting this scientific problem with sledgehammers for a long time," says astrophysicist Geraint Lewis from the University of Sydney.

"And it just refuses to yield."

We know what gravity does. It keeps us on our feet. It keeps the Earth orbiting around the Sun. 

And thanks to Einstein's theory of gravity, we know enough to map the path of orbiting planets and colliding galaxies. 

Listen on The Science Show: The hunt for a crucial update to Einstein's revolutionary theories

His theory of general relativity has been unsurpassable since it was published in 1915. 

"But there are places where relativity breaks down," Professor Lewis says.

The equations stop giving us the answers we need. 

So for more than 100 years, physicists have been searching for a new theory to explain what Einstein could not. 

It's both a serious quest to advance fundamental physics ... and a not-so-serious wager on the nature of space-time. 

Einstein's incomplete theory of gravity 

The theory of general relativity tells us that gravity is the curvature of space-time. 

Massive objects, like the Sun, warp the space and time around them. This causes objects like the Earth to move in a particular orbit. 

A black and white illustration showing a planet warping a grid-like spacetime, and a smaller moon orbiting.
In general relativity matter tells space-time how to curve, and curved space-time tells matter how to move.(Getty Images: Levente_Naghi)

This was a departure from Isaac Newton's view of gravity, which dominated physics for 200 years. 

Newton saw gravity as a force separate from space and time — while Einstein saw gravity as a product of space-time. 

For mathematician Robyn Arianrhod, an affiliate of Monash University, general relativity is "one of the most extraordinary creations of the human mind". 

The theory's predictions keep coming true — even when Einstein himself doubted they would.

From the first observations of light bent by the Sun during a solar eclipse in 1919, to the detection of tiny ripples in the fabric of space-time known as gravitational waves in 2015.

"I mean, how powerful is that?" Dr Arianrhod says. "And the equations are a handful of symbols long."

Albert Einstein sitting at his desk in a study, looking into the camera.
Albert Einstein not only thought up general relativity, he was also one of the founders of quantum mechanics. (Wikimedia Commons (CC0))

General relativity has been heralded for its beauty and simplicity. But even Einstein knew his theory could not explain everything. 

"That's why he was always searching for the underlying principles that would incorporate everything together," Dr Arianrhod says.

But try as he might, Einstein couldn't find the answer. 

As he wrote in a letter in 1938:

 "Most of my intellectual children, at a very young age, end up in the graveyard of disappointed hopes."

There are a few reasons we know general relativity isn't complete. 

At the heart of black holes, and when we try to make sense of the start of the universe, the mathematics goes wonky. 

"What it's telling us is that there's a point where relativity as we know it breaks down," Professor Lewis says. 

"And whatever is going to replace it comes into play."

General relativity also breaks down at the very small scale.  

This is where quantum theory takes over — an entirely different set of rules that tells us how subatomic particles, such as photons and electrons, behave.

But this means we have two sets of rules to explain the universe which are fundamentally incompatible. 

A quantum conundrum

The simplest way to understand this chasm between general relativity and quantum mechanics, is to compare how both theories envision the world. 

While general relativity sees space-time as continuous, quantum theory sees the universe as discrete parts that make up a bigger whole. 

They can't both be true. 

"Does gravity have to yield? Does quantum mechanics have to yield? Do they have to meet somewhere in the middle?" Professor Lewis asks. 

It has long been assumed that gravity is the problem. 

According to the Standard Model of Physics there are four fundamental forces, each of which are carried by different types of particles.

For the electromagnetic force, it's the photon. For the strong force it's the gluon. And bosons carry the weak force

So what carries the gravitational force?

So far we haven't been able to find the discrete parts that make gravity possible, in part because it's so weak.

Gravity is weaker than even the weak force — and therefore incredibly difficult to experiment with. 

Still, there are many theories with many passionate champions. After all, the prize for those who come out on top is hefty. 

"The physicist that finds [the answer] knows they'll be on their way to Sweden to pick up a Nobel Prize," Professor Lewis says. 

"If you crack this nut, that's the path that you're going down. Because you will change physics."

Abstract image of blue circles getting bigger and bigger on a black background.
The proposed particle that might carry the gravitational force is the graviton. (Getty Images: Denis Pobytov)

Understanding the true nature of gravity could have "staggering implications," says physicist Susan Scott of the Australian National University (ANU).

"It could tell us where the laws of nature come from, whether the cosmos is built on uncertainty or whether it's deterministic," Professor Scott says.

It could also give us new insight into black holes, and closure on the enigma that is the start of the universe. 

But there's more than Nobel Prizes at stake here. 

The theorist that comes out on top could not only book a trip to Sweden, but find themselves with a lifetime supply of potato chips.

More on that later ... first we need to meet the contestants ...

String theory

String theory is perhaps one of the most intimidating concepts out there. 

But in the simplest terms possible, all it proposes is that particles are made from tiny, vibrating strings. 

In string theory particles are one-dimensional open and closed strings. (GIPHY)

"So just like in music, where different combinations of strings produce different notes, tiny vibrating strings produce different particles," Professor Scott says. 

That would include the proposed particle for gravity — the graviton. 

String theory is not just a theory of quantum gravity. It also endeavours to be a theory of everything.

The number of dimensions required to make string theory work differs depending on the mathematical interpretation.

M-theory, for example, requires 11 dimensions.

"Which is seven more than we have in Einstein's theory of space-time," Professor Scott says.

Superstring theory requires 10 and bosonic string theory requires a whopping 26 dimensions. 

"As yet, there's not a shred of evidence that these extra dimensions exist," Professor Scott says. 

Loop quantum gravity

Loop quantum gravity theorises that space-time isn't continuous, instead it's made up of a network of tiny, interwoven loops.

Italian physicist Carlo Rovelli, one of the founders of the theory, says the idea is akin to a t-shirt: the fabric might seem continuous, but if you look closely you can see the threads.

"But the threads are not in space, because they are space themselves," Professor Rovelli says. 

Physicist Carlo Rovelli describes loop quantum gravity and how it imagines space-time. 

The potential to quantise space-time — not just gravity — is what sets quantum loop theory apart from string theory. 

However, like all current theories of quantum gravity, this is difficult to test. 

The loops in loop quantum gravity would be inconceivably small — about 0.000000000000000000000000000000000016 metres.

"This would be impossible to test in any particle accelerator on Earth," Professor Scott says. And so new experiments need to be devised. 

Betting on space-time

The fact these theories have been around for decades and yet remain untested might be a bad omen —  at least according to Jonathan Oppenheim, a physicist at University College London.

"It's possible the reason it's become so difficult is because we've gone off in the wrong direction," Professor Oppenheim says.

"Perhaps the idea of quantising gravity has been the wrong approach."

Professor Oppenheim is working on a controversial hybrid theory that does not quantise gravity, and also modifies some of Einstein's equations. 

"I think probably 99 per cent of my colleagues thought I was a crackpot," he says.

"Most people think we should quantise gravity."

Carlo Rovelli is one of those people.

When he heard Professor Oppenheim speak at a conference in 2020 he was so riled up, he agreed to a wager on whose theory would come out on top

Carlo Rovelli sitting and signing sheet of paper, leaning on book.
Carlo Rovelli signing the bet on whether gravity can be quantised or not.(Supplied: Carlo Rovelli)

They settled on one-to-5,000 odds, meaning if Professor Rovelli wins he gets a single item (like a packet of crisps) but if Professor Oppenheim wins he gets 5,000. 

However the point of this bet isn't to earn a lifetime supply of crisps. It's to establish what it would take for the scientists to change their minds. 

Finding proof

One of the ways physicists are trying to prove gravity is a quantum phenomenon, is by catching it in the act.

We know what quantum behaviour looks like. An example is entanglement, where two particles interact and then remain connected over vast distances. 

If those particles became entangled, having only ever interacted gravitationally, it would imply that gravity is a quantum phenomenon. 

Professor Oppenheim says emerging techniques in the lab bring new hope to the field.

"It has always been assumed that we had to go to incredibly high energies in order to test quantum gravity," he says. "Like we almost have to find black holes."

"What we've learned recently is that's not the case. There are low-energy experiments we can perform."

One example came out of the University of Southampton earlier this year, where scientists used magnets to detect the gravitational pull on a particle. 

And here in Australia, where ANU scientists have proposed quantum gravity experiments using sensitive lasers. 

Professor Scott says these tabletop techniques give us more opportunities to uncover gravity's secrets.

"This is probably the most exciting time to be involved in gravity research since Einstein presented his theory in 1915."

There isn't a guaranteed timeline, though. The answer has alluded us for 100 years, and could allude us for 100 more.  

"It's possible that in five years, we're much more ahead," Dr Rovelli says. "As it is possible that in 20 years we're still confused."

Want to know where the next Einstein might come from? Listen to 'Einstein revolutionised physics, now the field is hunting for a vital shake-up of his theories' on RN's The Science Show.

Saturday, 29 June 2024

Israel's bombs flatten parts of South Lebanon village amid fears of wider war.

Extract from ABC News 

ABC News Homepage


A satellite image shows the destruction of Lebanese village of Aita al-Shaab after months of Israeli bombs(Reuters: Planet Labs Inc)

Satellite images have shown destroyed sites in the South Lebanon village of Aita al-Shaab after months of Israeli air strikes.

The images from private satellite operator Planet Labs PBC, taken on June 5 show at least 64 destroyed sites in Aita al-Shaab. Several of the sites contain more than one building.

Located in southern Lebanon where Hezbollah has a strong backing from Shi'ite Muslims, Aita al-Shaab was a frontline in 2006 when its fighters successfully repelled Israeli attacks during the full-scale, 34-day war.

While the current fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Shi'ite group is still relatively contained, it marks their worst confrontation in 18 years, with widespread damage to buildings and farmland in south Lebanon and northern Israel.

The sides have been trading fire since the Israel-Gaza war erupted in October. 

The hostilities have largely depopulated the border zone on both sides, with tens of thousands of people fleeing their homes.

The destruction in Aita al-Shaab is comparable to the damage done in 2006, a dozen people familiar with the damage said, at a time when escalation has prompted growing concern of another all out war between the heavily-armed adversaries.

A combination picture of satellite images
A combination picture of a satellite image of woodland by the Lebanese village of Aita al-Shaab near the Israeli border, taken between October 2023 and 2024.(Reuters: Planet Labs Inc)

Israel says fire from Lebanon has killed 18 soldiers and 10 civilians. Israeli attacks have killed more than 300 Hezbollah fighters and 87 civilians, according to Reuters.

But a full-blown war between Hezbollah and Israel wouldn't be in the interest of either side, despite a bit of "huffing and puffing", Ian Parmeter, at Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University told the ABC.

"Most military advisers would say [to Israel], do not start another war when you're still caught up with one to the south," he said.

He said Israel would be considering that Hezbollah was stronger than Hamas in Gaza.

"It has 150,000 rockets, missiles and drones at its disposal, and although Israel has a very effective iron and dome defence system, if a large barrage of of these missiles came at populated centre in Israel, it may not be able to shoot them all down," Mr Parmeter said. 

Border towns 'unfit for living' 

At least ten of Hezbollah's dead came from Aita al-Shaab, and dozens more from the surrounding area, according to Hezbollah death notices.

Six civilians have been killed in the village, a security source said.

The village, just 1 kilometre from the border, is among the most heavily bombarded by Israel, Hashem Haidar, the head of the government's regional development agency the Council for South Lebanon said.

"There is a lot of destruction in the village centre, not just the buildings they hit and destroyed, but those around them which are beyond repair," said Aita al-Shaab Mayor Mohamed Srour.

Most of the village's 13,500 residents fled in October, when Israel began striking buildings and woodland nearby, he added.

The bombing campaign has made a swathe of the border area in Lebanon "unfit for living," Mr Haidar said.

During a recent visit to Washington, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warned that its military was capable of taking Lebanon "back to the Stone Age" in any war with Hezbollah.

But he also insisted his government would prefer a diplomatic solution on the Israel-Lebanon border.

Mr Paremeter said this type of threat if implemented would have international repercussions. 

"We've seen that international opinion against Israel has become very critical over. 

"If they do exactly the same thing in Lebanon, there will be a lot of criticism because there will be a lot of civilian deaths in doing so, so Israel won't be doing its own image any good," he said.

The Israeli military has said it has hit Hezbollah targets in the Aita al-Shaab area during the conflict.

Israeli military spokesperson Nir Dinar said Israel was acting in self-defence.

Hezbollah had made the area "unliveable" by hiding in civilian buildings and launching unprovoked attacks that made "ghost towns" of Israeli villages, Mr Dinar said.

"Israel is striking military targets, the fact that they're hiding inside civilian infrastructures is Hezbollah's decision," Mr Dinar said.

The military did not give further details of the nature of its targets in the village. It said Hezbollah was escalating attacks, firing more than 4,800 rockets into northern Israel, "killing civilians and displacing tens of thousands."

Hezbollah's media office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The current conflict began a day after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, when Hezbollah opened fire in solidarity with its Palestinian ally. Hezbollah has said it will stop when the Israeli assault on Gaza ends.

Hezbollah-Israel 2006 war

The 2006 war started when Hezbollah fighters infiltrated Israel from an area near Aita al-Shaab, capturing two Israeli soldiers.

A source familiar with Hezbollah's operations said the village had played a strategic role in 2006 and would do so again in any new war. The source did not give more details of the group's activities there.

A shell in the sky with smoke that appears to be white phosphorus.
An apparent white phosphorous shell from Israeli artillery explodes over south Lebanon in October 2023.(AP: Hussein Malla)

Hezbollah fighters held out in the village for the entire 2006 war. An Israeli-government appointed inquiry found that Israeli forces failed to capture it as ordered, despite encircling the village and dealing a serious blow to Hezbollah. 

Anti-tank missiles were still being fired from the village five days before the war ended, it said.

Throughout northern Israel, about 2,000 buildings have been damaged, the country's tax authority said. 

Across the border, some 2,700 homes have been completely destroyed and 22,000 more damaged, significantly below the 2006 conflict, the Council for South Lebanon said, though these numbers were preliminary.

Fires sparked by the fighting have affected hundreds of hectares of farmland and forest either side of the border, authorities said.

Hezbollah, which frequently announces its own strikes, has occasionally used the short-range Burkan, with a warhead of up to 500 kilograms. 

Many of the attacks it has announced have used weapons with far smaller warheads, such as guided anti-tank rockets that typically carry warheads of less than 10 kilograms.

Reuters/ABC

Friday, 28 June 2024

Wind farm with enough electricity to power Perth CBD to be built near Collie in southern Western Australia.

Extract from ABC News 

ABC News Homepage


Western Australia's Great Southern will play host to the state's largest wind farm, with plans for a 100-turbine facility revealed for the first time.

The Ambrosia Wind Farm will sit near Collie, outside the town of Moodiarrup, 245 kilometres south-east of Perth, with construction due to begin next year and completion slated for 2027.

Proponents say the 600 megawatt farm would be the most productive on WA's South West Integrated System (SWIS), the state's largest electricity grid.

"If you were to think that the whole of the [Perth] CBD uses something between 75 to 100 megawatts, we are producing 600-plus megawatts," Green Wind Renewables spokesman Patrick Ragan said.

"It is relatively big — it's three times larger than the current largest wind turbine farm on the SWIS."

Wind turbines are set to dot the landscape in Victoria's west
The wind farm, earmarked for WA's farming heartland, could feature up to 100 turbines and generate 600 megawatts.(Supplied: WestWind Energy)

The turbines are expected to be some of the most productive in the country, with a stem height of 150 metres and a blade length of approximately 85 metres.

Mr Ragan said each could produce up to 8 megawatts on a windy day, but the final turbine selection would be made at a later date to ensure the latest technology was used.

The project will be built on cleared freehold agricultural land, selected due to its access to the SWIS and consistently positive wind test readings.

Mr Ragan said all land contracts had been signed and the company would now begin community consultation with neighbours and residents in the region.

"We've signed binding contracts with them [farmers]," he said.

"Now we're starting to engage with the neighbours to explain, because we can't go and talk to neighbours until you have a project, and you don't have a project until you've got a happy farmer who signed a contract."

Neil Morrell sits in his mayoral office in front of Australian flags
West Arthur Shire President Neil Morrell says roads and other infrastructure would need upgrading.(ABC News: Amelia Searson)

Shire of West Arthur President Neil Morrell said he hoped the community would get investment from the company as part of the project.

Cr Morrell said roads and other infrastructure would need upgrades to cater for construction for the wind farm.

"The Shire has to get the infrastructure ready for these things to happen," he said.

Project to double state's wind power

Energy analyst Ray Wills said the scale of the project was significant and would fit well with existing and future infrastructure.

"It's going to almost double West Australia's capacity of wind on the network so that's a really big project," Professor Wills said.

"It's not necessarily so big that it's uncomfortable in the network.

"Its location is logical as well — Collie (55km north-west) does have a good wind resource because it's so far south, you get the winds coming from the west, but you will also get wind coming from the south."

An aerial photo of a coal-fired power plant.
The Muja Power Station, just east of Collie.(ABC News: Tom Edwards)

Professor Wills said the speed at which the project was being developed raised questions over the viability of the federal coalition's unfunded plan to build seven nuclear power plants across Australia, including one in Collie.

"Wind can be built very quickly, not quite as fast as solar, but far faster than a gas-fired power station, probably twice as quickly," he said.

"A coal-fired power station, probably three times as quickly and certainly far faster than a nuclear power station, probably five to six times as quick."

Professor Willis said the speed at which renewables were being built outpaced alteratives such as nuclear. 

"One of the reasons why over 95 per cent of new capacity in the world last year was renewable is because we can put this kit together very quickly and we can get a project on the ground," he said.

"That's the Achilles heel of any plan to build nuclear, that your return on investment is a decade away, not two years away."

James Hansen - The World Will Cool Off – A Bit – and Other Good News!

Fig. 1. Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS analysis.[1],[2]
Warming rate is 0.18°C/decade for 1970-2010, 0.32°C/decade for 2010-present.
 
The World Will Cool Off – A Bit – and Other Good News!

27 June 2024
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Leon Simons
Abstract. We note news about successful actions to reduce human-caused climate change, based on initiatives of young people supported by Our Children’s Trust. But first we address misconceptions about the current unprecedented global warming rate. 
“The Big Story” (titled Scorching heat wave may portend climate future) in The Hill last Thursday quoted Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the School for Environment and Sustainability at the University of Michigan, as saying, now that the El Nino has ended “we’re really looking at the next few months to tell us whether something dramatic is surprising us in the global temperatures. If it starts cooling off, [and] it hasn’t started to do that yet, we can ascribe [these] more unusual temperatures to the El Nino. If it keeps rocketing up, we’ll have to think about why climate change [is] accelerating.” [emphases are in The Hill article]

Although what Jonathan said is consistent with what some others are saying, we’re concerned about potential public misunderstanding. The world will soon start to cool off (see below), but that does not mean that we can ascribe the current unusual global heating to El Nino. Also, the rate of global warming really is accelerating (see below), even though global temperature will soon begin to decline. However, the global warming acceleration does not imply some dramatic surprise in our understanding of climate physics. The two large human-made climate forcings – greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols – account for accelerated global warming. The growth rate of these two forcings accelerated in the past 15 years.

The global warming rate since 2010 has accelerated to 0.32°C per decade, 78% faster than the 0.18°C per decade rate in 1970-2010 (Fig. 1). The impact of the acceleration on global temperature is large by 2030 (Fig. 1). Already the global anomaly of the 12-month mean temperature relative to preindustrial time is about +1.6°C (slightly less in the GISS analysis relative to 1880-1920 and slightly more than +1.6°C in other analyses relative to 1850-2000). The 12-month mean temperature is now approximately at its peak driven by the recent El Nino. The tropics, as expected, are transitioning into the La Nina state. By the end of 2024, global mean temperature will have declined significantly, but the annual 2024 global temperature should readily exceed the prior (2023) record.

The El Nino/La Nina cycle is the largest cause of interannual global temperature variability. The recent El Nino was only of moderate strength and Earth’s current energy imbalance is unusually large. Thus, the global temperature decline with the budding La Nina is likely to be only about 0.2°C to about 1.4°C, so for practical purposes the Nino-average global temperature has already reached +1.5°C relative to preindustrial global temperature.
Fig. 2. Zonal-mean SST (12-month running mean) relative to 1951-1980 base period.
The June 2024 global temperature will be the 13th consecutive month with record high global temperature in the GISS global temperature analysis, the longest such string of records in the GISS analysis. However, during the 16-month period from June 2015 through September 2016 there were 13 monthly records, one tie, and two months that came within 0.03°C of being a record. Thus, there were 16 consecutive months of record or near-record high temperatures in 2015-16. The string of record or near-record monthly temperatures in 2023-24 will be one month shorter (15 months) because September 2024 will surely be cooler than the unusually hot September 2023 (described by Zeke Hausfather as “gobsmackingly bananas” hot). [July and August 2024 might be slightly cooler than the same months in 2023, but the temperatures should not differ much, given the thermal inertia of the ocean mixed layer. Only in September 2024 do we expect to see a perceptible decline in the 12-month running mean global temperature.] The relatively “cooler” period that should be ushered in by September this year, i.e., the period in which global temperature remains lower than its present +1.6°C peak, may last a few years. Let’s hope we can use this period for a calm assessment of the climate situation and adoption of policies that at last are effective and help to alleviate the anxiety of young people (see below).

The unprecedented global warming of the past year gives the impression of a supergiant El Nino (Fig. 1), while, in fact, the El Nino was only of moderate strength. However, no new physics is needed to explain this uniquely strong global warming. Sea surface temperature (SST) is a particularly valuable diagnostic of the climate system: the large thermal inertia of the ocean’s upper mixed layer allows the SST to smooth out the “noise” caused by cloud variability. For this reason, SST is even more revealing of mechanisms than even Earth’s energy imbalance, which (due to changing clouds) is extremely noisy on monthly time scales. Fig. 2 shows that the recent unusual global warming was the product of two phenomena: (1) low latitude transition from a strong La Nina to a moderate El Nino, and (2) longer-term (post-2010) warming at middle latitudes (especially in the Northern Hemisphere).

Thus, we ascribe[3] the post-2010 acceleration of warming and the deceptive appearance of a supergiant El Nino to reduction of human-made tropospheric aerosols, mainly reduction of sulphates from power plants and other sources (especially in China) and regulations on sulphates in ship fuels. Midlatitude Northern Hemisphere warming (Fig. 2) is informative. Warming from reduction of aerosol sources in China would be largely complete by 2020, given the nature of the temperature response function (Fig. 4 of reference 3), which is similar in all realistic global climate models. The fresh jolt of midlatitude warming in the Northern Hemisphere after 2020 is likely a result of the reduction of ship aerosols, which are especially effective due to their emission in relatively pristine marine air. We will soon have a paper that is more quantitative on this topic.

So, what is the good news? It concerns the matter of climate anxiety. When we are honest about the status of the climate science – and there is no other path for science – that honest assessment becomes a source of anxiety, especially for young people, which is the last thing that they need today. At least a partial solution is for young people to feel empowered to affect their future. That is the theme and principal objective Sophie’s Planet, which JEH is finally in the process of finishing. A wonderful example of such empowerment has just been provided by young people in Hawaii with the support of Our Children’s Trust and Earthjustice. A lawsuit brought by young people against the Hawaii Department of Transportation has been settled with the government of Hawaii agreeing to take numerous steps to speed up the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Graded by its impact on global emissions, it’s a small step, but it is a step in the right direction, which is a great leap from the direction that their elders were headed.
 
[1] Lenssen NJL, Schmidt GA, Hansen JE et al. Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model, J Geophys Res Atmos 124(12), 6307-26, 2019
[2] Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M et al. Global surface temperature changeRev Geophys 48:RG4004, 2010
[3] Hansen J, Sato M, Simons L et al. Global warming in the pipeline. Oxford Open Clim Chan 3(1), doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008, 2023