Saturday 1 June 2024

History has just been made at Donald Trump's trial in New York City. It could shape America's future.

Extract from ABC News

ABC News Homepage


A breakdown of Donald Trump's criminal conviction.

It's difficult to overstate how significant the verdict delivered in a Manhattan courtroom on Friday (Australian time) is to the future of the United States.

Donald Trump had already made history as the first former US president to be charged with a crime.

Now, he's the first to have been convicted.

And as the presumptive Republican nominee for an election only five months away, Americans are facing the very possible prospect of voting a felon into the White House.

Trump has criticised the case as rigged and disgraceful, arguing the "real verdict" will be delivered when votes are cast in November.

After all, the conviction does not technically prevent him from running again or from taking office if he wins.

If he's in prison by that point, the situation gets a lot more complicated.

But this is the extraordinary situation the US now finds itself in — in the legal and constitutional unknown of how someone could campaign, or even take office, from behind bars.

And in an increasingly polarised America, divisions are only likely to be deepened.

Twelve unanimous Manhattanites

The panel of New Yorkers chosen to weigh the 34 charges against Trump was not allowed to take the political significance of the case into account, and all the jurors had insisted they could remain impartial.

A court room packed with people with a judge and jury in the front
Jurors were thoroughly screened before being selected to serve.(Christine Cornell via Reuters)

Over a day and a half, they considered the prosecution's case: that Trump falsified business records to cover up "hush money" paid to porn star Stormy Daniels on the eve of the 2016 election, to silence her claims of a sexual encounter with him and protect his campaign. Trump still denies the encounter took place.

To convict the former president, the jurors had to find that he not only fudged the records, but did so with the intent to commit or conceal another crime.

That second crime was a violation of New York election laws making it illegal to "promote or prevent" the election of someone by "unlawful means".

The complexity of the allegations raised eyebrows from the beginning, especially given the years-long back-and-forth over whether to bring the so-called "zombie" case at all.

And it helped to fuel Trump's accusation that the charges were politically motivated.

The man who brought the case, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, is a Democrat in an elected position.

But he insisted from the time Trump was indicted that the case had nothing to do with politics.

Trump looks down frowning while wearing a suit in court
Donald Trump was required to attend every day of the trial.(Reuters: Jabin Botsford/Pool )

And when he addressed reporters after the verdict was handed down, he argued "this type of white-collar prosecution" was core to the work of his office.

"While this defendant may be unlike any other in American history, we arrived at this trial, and ultimately today at this verdict, in the same manner as every other case that comes to the courtroom doors," he said.

"By following the facts and the law, and doing so without fear or favour."

A prisoner for president?

Judge Juan Merchan has set a sentencing date of July 11, just days before Trump is due to be officially confirmed as the Republican nominee.

While a prison term is possible, most expect Trump's lack of a prior criminal record to mean options like probation would be considered.

The former president's legal team is also likely to appeal, a process that could be lengthy.

In the meantime, though, he'll do whatever he can to try to make political mileage out of his predicament.

A fundraising email was fired off within minutes of the verdict being announced, urging potential donors to "please, please, PLEASE join me at this dark hour".

Trump has managed to rally support off the back of all four of his criminal cases, but one big question now is how the verdict will affect American voters more broadly.

In an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released ahead of the decision, two-thirds of people surveyed said a guilty verdict would make no difference to the votes they'll cast in November.

That seems like a lot, but the outcome of US elections can come down to a relatively small number of voters in swing states, where the result could go either way.

And in a race that's expected to be close, every vote counts.

Cashing in

Joe Biden has also sought to fundraise off the verdict, taking to the social media platform X to argue:

"There's only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: At the ballot box."

The president had long made a point of not commenting on the case, in part at least to avoid adding to his predecessor's unfounded claim that the White House was involved.

But he'd started to shift his position in recent weeks, dropping references to Trump's legal woes into his public remarks.

And his campaign made the controversial decision only days ago to send actor Robert De Niro down to the court precinct to criticise the former president.

As the election draws closer, and Biden's approval ratings remain stubbornly low, the president is trying to frame Trump's potential election as a threat to US democracy that must be stopped.

His campaign is already referring to the former president as a "convicted felon", although it remains to be seen what Biden himself will say.

It sets up what will be a remarkable presidential debate between the two candidates next month.

Trump has been posting to his social media platform, Truth Social, in relentless fashion since leaving court, attacking the judge and claiming election interference.

He'll continue that argument when he holds a press conference at his Manhattan residence, Trump Tower, on Friday, local time.

In the city where the former real estate tycoon made his name, 12 ordinary New Yorkers have just given him a unique place in the history books.

Just not in the way he would have wanted.

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