Monday, 3 June 2024

Why Vladimir Putin's latest strategy to break Ukraine is 'as hellish as possible'

Extract from ABC News 

ABC News Homepage


Natalia Logvinova is accustomed to living in fear.

She and her husband have raised their three children in the village of Bilyi Kolodyaz', just 20 kilometres from the Russian border.

But nothing prepared them for the bombing they endured on May 10.

In the early hours of the morning, their community of 3,600 people in Ukraine's north-east, came under a barrage of shells and missiles.

"It started at night very intensely and did not stop," Natalia told the ABC.

"When it flew into our garden at night, we were very scared."

A giant crater is left where a bomb landed in their backyard, and the windows in their home were shattered by the impact of the explosions.

A large hole in the ground.
This crater was left in Natalia Logvinova's garden after a Russian strike on her town.(Supplied)

The surprise attack was the start of Moscow's latest offensive in a war that has raged for more than two years.

Russian troops poured across the border, smashing through Ukrainian defences and seizing towns.

While the Ukrainian military scrambled effectively and has since been able to hold them at bay, several villages remain partially occupied.

It represents a new and dangerous front in the war which has largely been fought in the south and east of Ukraine.

Kyiv was forced to rush in reinforcements to halt the advance and Ukrainian soldiers caught unawares described Russian troops simply walking into villages.

Two young boys, a young girl and a woman sit on a bed, and look at the camera with neutral expressions.
Natalia Logvinova and her three children fled their home in Bilyi Kolodyaz', Ukraine, after Russia's bombardment on May 10, 2024.(Supplied)

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Natalia has kept her teenage children safe while her husband battles on the front lines.

As chaos descended around her, she pleaded with police to take them to safety. They finally managed to make it out a day later. 

It was the first time since the start of the war that it had become too dangerous to stay.

"A chill ran through me, knowing how drones can track cars. I turned on a prayer on my phone, and we all fell silent as we drove through," Natalia said.

"We prayed for guidance. We travelled without knowing where we would end up," she said.

'Every day is crucial' as Russia eyes Kharkiv 

Since the new offensive began last month, Ukrainian authorities and volunteers have evacuated more than 11,000 people from the region around Bilyi Kolodyaz'.

"Every day is crucial; we have faith in the armed forces," said Iryna Sanyna, who coordinates evacuations and finds temporary accommodation for displaced people, particularly the elderly and those with mobility issues.

Her agency has helped more than 4,000 people since Russia's May 10 offensive.

"The volunteers are showing an increase in fighting spirit, civic consciousness, and a sense of importance in their work during challenging times," she said.

Most are now sheltering nearby in Ukraine's second largest city of Kharkiv, which is also coming under daily attack from Russian forces.

On May 25, dozens were injured and at least 15 people were killed after Russian glide bombs hit a hardware store and garden centre.

Russia captured the city early in Vladimir Putin's full scale invasion in 2022, but Ukrainian troops managed to reclaim it within a few months. 

A smashed window, seen from the inside of a home.
The windows of Natalia Logvinova's home were smashed during Russia's bombardment.(Supplied)

Ukraine's capacity to defend itself relies on others. Decisions made by Western allies and delays over military aid have shaped the events taking place in Kharkiv and along the 1,000-kilometre of the front line.

This latest offensive has highlighted deficiencies in Ukraine's capabilities and raised questions as to how, or if, it can repel the Russian forces.

An estimated $AU90 billion worth of weapons and artillery from the United States is starting to trickle through to the outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian army.

But it's not flowing in fast enough to replenish the tired and depleted troops.

"Vladimir Putin is eager to try to gain as much territory as possible to make Ukrainian lives as hellish as possible," political scientist Peter Zalmayev, from the not-for-profit Eurasia Democracy Initiative, said.

"It's doubtful he has plans to invade the city [Kharkiv] or order, a full-frontal attack on it — he lacks the requisite force at this point.

"But making the residents' lives there as miserable as possible, causing a massive outflow and evacuation of the city is part of his plan to make Ukraine unviable, economically."

Mr Zalmayev says Russia is trying to stretch Kyiv's forces.

"One goal of Putin that I can clearly see, is to try and reach Kharkiv within 10 kilometres of the city, which would make it vulnerable to regular artillery shells that would just magnify Russia's assault."

'Like fighting with a hand tied behind your back' 

The proximity of this offensive to Russia's border also throws up complex challenges for Ukrainian forces which Putin is using to his advantage.

Several Western countries supplying weapons to Ukraine do so on the proviso that the arms aren't used to attack Russian territory.

A man in a dark coat stands among a military parade
Experts say Vladimir Putin is exploiting a demand made by Ukraine's Western allies not to use their weaponry against Russia. (Sputnik via Reuters: Maxim Blinov)

Last week, US President Joe Biden relaxed his country's restrictions in that regard, saying Kyiv could try and hit targets over the border, as long as they were near Kharkiv.

The limitations were designed to prevent a broader global conflict with Moscow and avoid direct confrontation between the US and Russia.

Mr Zalmayev described the previous restrictions imposed on Ukraine as "like fighting with a hand tied behind your back".

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had, before President Biden's policy change, angered Russia by urging Western leaders to reconsider the restrictions.

After more than two years of fierce fighting, Mr Zalmayev believes the latest attacks represent a pivotal moment in the war.

"The best-case scenario right now for Ukraine, as pessimistic as it sounds ... is a frozen conflict," Mr Zalmayev said.

"Some have already taken to calling it a Korean scenario where the front line would be frozen and there would be no peace agreement per se, but at least a ceasefire." 

Putin recently removed his defence minister of 14 years to replace him with an economist, who hasn't worked a single day of military service.

A soldier hidden behind netting crouches beneath a huge explosion
Experts say Ukraine might end up in a "frozen conflict" that demands they hold firm against Russia until the country gives up or accepts a ceasefire. (Reuters: Valentyn Ogirenko)

On the face of it, that seems a bizarre appointment, but experts say that putting a business mind in charge of military strategy and spending suggests Putin is positioning for many more years of war.

"It will be prohibitively costly for Russians to continue to advance, and that means digging in, quite literally, and continuing to build defences and receiving enough Western weaponry to make it too costly for Russians to continue on Ukraine's territory," Mr Zalmayev said.

The months ahead are just as uncertain for the thousands displaced by this latest wave of fighting.

"It has been a challenging month filled with stress. I am concerned about my husband but the most important thing to me is the safety of my children, whom I have taken away from the situation," Natalia said.

"We are hopeful that things will improve, and we will be able to return. We had planted a garden, flowers, and had plans for our farm. 

"We never imagined that we would have to leave everything behind."

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