Extract from ABC News
Analysis
Donald Trump has added a new "rocket man" to his friend list. ( APReuters)
Donald Trump now has two "rocket men" in his life.
The new one is Elon Musk, the world's richest man, a constant companion and the new best friend of the president-elect of the United States.
Musk is widely reported to be spending many meals at Trump's Mar-a-Lago compound in Florida — both as an informal adviser and as someone to be appointed by Trump to slash $US2 trillion ($3 trillion) from federal government spending.
So close are the two men – for now – that when Trump was speaking recently to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy he casually handed the phone to Musk so he, too, could have a chat to Zelenskyy.
And then there's Trump's original Rocket Man — Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea.
It was Trump during his first term in the White House who gave Kim his nickname. Until Trump, Kim Jong Un had been a marginalised figure on the world stage. As part of a dynasty that had ruled North Korea for three generations, he was seen as an eccentric leader of a backward country.
North Korea is desperately poor and secluded. Traditionally its main ally has been China, so many were surprised when as president Trump elevated the status of Kim to a major figure – meeting him three times.
But when Trump re-enters the White House on January 20, he will find that the man he so enjoyed meeting has built for himself a new international status – now a major ally of Vladimir Putin.
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un have become close allies.
North Korea's new position
North Korea's role on the world stage has changed dramatically – it recently decided on its first ever overseas military intervention, sending an estimated 10,000 soldiers to Russia to help in their fight against Ukraine.
For western countries, by doing this North Korea has crossed a line.
North Korea has long been dubbed "the hermit kingdom". Kim, his father and grandfather consecutively ruled as dictators, living privileged lives in an isolated country.
Kim inherited from his father a regime based on brutality. As retired South Korean Army lieutenant general Chun In-bum told the ABC: [Kim] inherited a system that has its foundations on terror, murder, executions, torture, you name it … Kim Jong Un uses brainwashing, as well as rewards, and, of course, terrorising.
"Public executions [are carried out] in a very brutal way. It's not just hanging. They normally shoot people, but they also put them to the torch [or burn them], like in medieval Europe. And these executions are conducted in public in front of children."
The world changed for Kim when Donald Trump was elected in 2016. As president, Trump flirted with Kim and gave him a status he'd never had before – including three meetings.
North Korea analyst Fyodor Tertitskiy wrote in Carnegie Politika that the reason North Korea has never previously sent military units abroad was because the regime is worried soldiers might pick up "incorrect" ideas, such as realising that people in other countries are much wealthier than them.
He says Pyongyang is cultivating closer relations with Moscow in the hope the alliance between the two countries will endure even when the Kremlin no longer needs its help in Ukraine.
"North Korea is strengthening ties with Russia in a whole range of different areas, from trade, tourism and exchanges, including of schoolchildren, to sending soldier and workers to Russia."
But Tertitskiy adds that the blossoming Russia-North Korea relationship could be stymied by South Korea or China.
"For the moment, Beijing is not bothered: North Korean troops will help Russia avoid defeat, and Kremlin support means China may be able to reduce the economic aid it gives to Pyongyang. But there are limits. China will not want to see Russia supplying North Korea with nuclear and missile technologies that could lead to regional escalation."
The North Korean special forces troops have gone to Russia to help Moscow in what has become its single most important battle: the battle to regain Kursk, the part of Russia that Ukraine took while Russian troops were fighting elsewhere on the frontline.
Long-range missile 'raises the stakes' in Ukraine-Russia war
A bargaining chip
The significance of Ukraine taking this chunk of Kursk is that it gives Ukraine a major bargaining chip at the negotiations expected soon after Trump takes power.
But to have it as a bargaining chip Ukraine needs to hold Kursk at least until Trump tries to force a ceasefire deal on Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump will be able to use a powerful leverage over Zelenskyy – he can threaten to withdraw US funding for NATO unless Zelenskyy agrees to a deal that would most likely be that Russia keeps most of the 20 per cent of Ukraine that it has taken since the full invasion of February 2022.
Which is where Kim Jong Un comes in, now a player in one of the world's biggest conflicts.
"Putin is deeply embarrassed to lose so much territory within Russia," says Robert Potter, a fellow at the ANU Centre for Europe who has worked on Ukraine and North Korean issues and spent time in both countries. "He wants the territory back by [Trump's] inauguration day so he does not have to trade for it."
North Korea's motivation for sending the soldiers, says Potter, is a perpetual need for foreign currency.
"Centralised assets which are generally controlled by the Kim family are the highest priority to turn into centres of revenue. This is why sanctions target areas like mining. Extraction of coal, hacking and selling labour have all been revenue earners for the government in the past.
"This along with getting access to comparatively new Russian defence technologies makes this a compelling deal for the Kims if they can avoid battlefield embarrassment."
North Korea had a number of interrelated aims in mind when it agreed to provide soldiers, says Richard McGregor, senior fellow, East Asia, at the Lowy Institute.
"The country is poor and still has a desperate need for hard currency. So they will either be paid by Russia or be paid in kind, with modern missile technologies which will allow them to advance their aim of building a nuclear bomb which can threaten the United States," he says.
"North Korea also chafes at the overwhelming influence of its largest neighbour, China. Stronger ties with Russia gives them more options with China."
China, says McGregor, has considerable influence over North Korea.
"It controls the land border and can easily cut off oil supplies, for example, and foodstuffs, a lot of which travel through China.
"The two countries have a close but cool relationship. But China is cautious about using its leverage against North Korea, especially if it is seen as being in the service of US foreign policy aims, in this case, to hurt Russia.
"China will be uncomfortable about North Korean troops going to fight in Russia, but Beijing and Pyongyang are on the same side in the Ukraine conflict. They don't want Russia to lose."
McGregor rejects the suggestion that North Korea sending troops to Russia is in effect a back-channel way for China to support Russia in its war against Ukraine.
"China's own contributions are far more decisive," he says. "I would look at it another way. Russia is like the DRPK (North Korea) in some ways. They don't want to be too reliant on China either. By embracing Pyongyang, Putin is making sure he has more partners than Beijing."
As to the much-discussed Russia-China-Iran-North Korea alliance, McGregor says: "It doesn't work as a seamless alliance but they increasingly have shared interests and are developing the habit of working together. That by itself is significant."
What recent events have shown is that despite North Korea's closeness to China, it also has a separate relationship with Moscow.
Robert Potter points out that North Korea and Russia have a long-standing partnership independent of Beijing, but says he thinks the sending of soldiers would not have happened had China really wanted to stop it.
These soldiers, he says, will not make a difference in their current numbers but if this North Korean program continues to expand, then they will.
Many analysts believe that for Trump, the challenge of ending the conflict between North and South Korea was a tantalising one.
"Trump thinks of himself as a deal-maker and settling the Korean peninsula would have been the ultimate deal," McGregor says.
"It was also quite legitimate for Trump to try personal diplomacy. Nothing else had worked for decades. But Trump underestimated the task and elevated the relationship with Kim to a near-bromance, rendering the hard work of any agreement all but useless by the end."
Hard to judge who is winning the war
So, with North Korean troops now deployable, who's winning the war in Ukraine?
Robert Potter says neither party is on track to achieve their stated objectives.
"Ukraine has switched to a battlefield strategy of trading small amounts of territory to inflict grievous and unsustainable losses on Russia," he says.
"While this does not put Ukraine in a position to retake all of the conquered territory, it's unlikely Russia can maintain its present pace as long as Ukraine continues to receive aid.
"While Russia is taking small amounts of territory there is not much risk of them taking a major city — so far in the war, they've failed to do this. Realistically, they're still trying to clear the suburbs of Donetsk after 10 years of trying."
For Ukraine, Potter says a ceasefire does not make sense without security guarantees.
"A simple ceasefire would favour Russia and would not resolve the element which caused the war in the first place," he says.
"Russian objectives around subverting Ukrainian independence would still exist. They would switch to a grey zone strategy of undermining the government, which would be equally dangerous.
"There's also no guarantee that Russia would keep its word and not just form up for more attacks. Any ceasefire needs to resolve the underlying security issue that makes Russia feel safe to attack Ukraine.
"Ukraine would likely accept a deal if it provides for their long-term security needs."
He adds that there is little evidence that Russia can keep up the kinetic fight indefinitely. Their offensive power, Potter says, has already culminated.
"Further, at the moment there is no deal on the present frontline. Ukraine holds parts of Russia that Putin wants back," says Potter.
"However, Putin is still demanding that major cities like Zaporizhia and Kherson be handed over.
"Their population is over one million when combined. Ukraine can't realistically take a deal that puts an additional one million Ukrainians under Russian occupation, places the Russian army on the other side of the Dnipro river and returns a city that Ukraine liberated at great cost from Russian occupation."
Potter says there is no doubt that military aid to Ukraine has been too slow.
"It's also been inconsistent," he says. "For example, there was a six-month pause in US military aid due to congressional unwillingness to fund the war.
"This led to battlefield shortages of key equipment. Ukraine has done amazingly well on the field considering how inconsistent these supplies have been.
"That being said, Ukraine still has real military reforms to undertake. So long as the Ukrainian aid supply is consistent, most underperformance on the battlefield is attributable to a lack of reform in the Ukrainian army.
"There's still a lot of work to be done modernising their Ukrainian armed forces."
While North Korean troops prepare for battle, North Korea itself appears to be becoming more unpredictable.
Fyodor Tertitskiy of Carnegie Politika says that for the time being it does not look as if North Korea's decision to break with established traditions and send soldiers to a foreign war will lead to the collapse of the regime.
"But it's important to remember that a dictator – like a sapper clearing mines – can only make one mistake."
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