Sunday, 2 March 2025

After Trump and Zelenskyy's heated clash in the Oval Office, what now for Ukraine?

Extract from ABC News

Analysis

Volodymyr Zelenskyy boarding a Ukrainian government plane on stairs.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy left Washington with his country's alliance with the US under a cloud. (Reuters: Emilija Jefremova)

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy left the Oval Office following that astonishing verbal clash with US President Donald Trump and his Vice President JD Vance on Friday, the world was left wondering, what's next for Ukraine?

In the first instance, for Zelenskyy at least, it was a transatlantic flight from Washington to London for an urgent meeting with the UK's Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

British broadcasters carried live pictures on Saturday of the Ukrainian delegation's plane landing at Stansted airport and Zelenskyy's motorcade travelling into central London.

As he touched down on UK soil, the Ukrainian president sent out a flurry of social media posts, writing he was "very grateful to the United States for all the support" but wanted the US "to stand more firmly on our side".

This came after Trump told Zelenskyy he should be "more thankful" for US support and that he was "gambling with World War III".

Donald Trump in the Oval Office, speaking and pointing at Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Donald Trump says Volodymyr Zelenskyy should be more thankful for American support. (Reuters: Brian Snyder)

The embattled Ukrainian leader wasn't due to meet with Starmer until Sunday morning, but the meeting was brought forward.

As the Ukrainian president’s motorcade drove along Whitehall and arrived at Downing Street, dozens of well wishes cheered and waved placards with messages of support.

Starmer greeted Zelenskyy with a handshake and a warm embrace, as both men smiled for the cameras before entering the famous black front door.

The optics were in complete contrast to what played out inside the Oval Office just over 24 hours earlier.

Inside Number 10, the pair posed once again for the camera, with Starmer telling Zelenskyy, "We stand with you for as long as it may take".

He added that the UK was committed to helping Ukraine achieve a "lasting peace … based on sovereignty and security".

Keir Starmer smiling and standing next to Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Downing Street.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Downing Street on Saturday. (Reuters: Temilade Adelaja)

Zelenskyy thanked Starmer and the people of the UK for their "big support from the very beginning of this war" and said he had accepted an invitation meet with King Charles on Sunday.

Could Starmer be a bridge between Washington and Kyiv? He is certainly trying.

The UK prime minister's own meeting in the Oval Office a mere 24 hours before Zelenskyy's was widely viewed as a success, with Starmer and Trump speaking warmly in front of the cameras and behind closed doors.

Starmer even delivered an invitation to Trump from King Charles for an unprecedented second state visit to the UK.

And it helped that earlier in the week he had set out plans for the UK to increase defence spending — something Trump had been pushing European countries to do.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy clashes with Donald Trump and JD Vance during Oval Office talks.

The prime minister's team flew back to London believing they had made genuine progress on Ukraine.

What a difference a day makes.

As Trump was left fuming following the spat with Zelenskyy, he did take a call from Starmer though.

Speaking on Friday, a No 10 spokesperson said: "The prime minister has tonight spoken to both President Trump and President Zelenskyy".

"He retains unwavering support for Ukraine, and is doing all he can to find a path forward to a lasting peace based on sovereignty and security for Ukraine," the spokesperson said.

There have been no details about the nature of the two phone calls, but the fact Starmer was able to get the US president on the line right away says a lot about the UK's diplomatic efforts with the new Trump administration so far.

Security summit takes on more significance

The meeting to watch now is the scheduled security summit of European leaders that will get underway in London on Sunday afternoon local time.

It was already shaping up to be crucial, but now takes on even more significance.

European leaders leapt to Zelenskyy's defence after the Oval Office shouting match, and will now be trying to work out what on earth to do next.

Aside from Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the details of who will be attending the summit are yet to be formally announced, but French President Emmanual Macron, who also met in Washington with Donald Trump this week, is expected.

Two men leaning towards each other to chat

Western allies have grown increasingly alarmed at being shut out of negotiations between the US and Russia to end the war. (AP: Evan Vucci)

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte are also believed to be attending.

Canadian media are reporting that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is also on his way to London for the meeting.

The leaders thought they would be be heading into the summit with Ukraine having signed a critical minerals deal with the US, but with Zelenskyy abruptly shown the White House door, that deal is off the table for now.

The group is expected to discuss what happened in Washington, where the US-Ukraine-Europe relationship sits in its wake, strengthening Ukraine’s position now, and the need for a strong, lasting peace deal.

There are two scenarios to discuss — do they try to get the US back to the negotiating table? Or look to move on without it?

Would the latter even be feasible? Or affordable?

The EU's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, has said she believes Europe must step up.

In a social media post after the Oval Office showdown, Ms Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, wrote: "Ukraine is Europe! We stand by Ukraine. We will step up our support to Ukraine so that they can continue to fight back the aggressor".

"Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It's up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge," she wrote.

As the security summit gets underway, European leaders will warmly welcome Zelenskyy and reiterate their support for his war-torn country, but the president will want action, not just words.

An empty US presidential lectern and table with the Ukrainian and US flags, in a White House room.

Plans to sign a rare earths mineral deal were cancelled after the tense exchange in the Oval Office. (Reuters: Nathan Howard)

As Ukraine's ambassador to Australia, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, told the ABC in December and has repeatedly said, "there is just enough assistance for us not to fail, but we're not getting enough of that assistance to be able to prevail".

If the US decides to pull the pin on continued military aid for Ukraine, European assistance will need to fill the void.

Russian strikes on Ukraine continue

In Ukraine, there has been broad support for the way their leader held his ground in the Oval Office, during what some have described as an ambush.

And there has been no respite from Russia's full-scale invasion.

A patient being loaded on a stretcher into an ambulance in Kharkiv.

Russia has struck a hospital in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, forcing the evacuation of patients. (Reuters: Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy)

In the hours after the shouting match, Russian drones struck a medical facility and other targets in the second largest city Kharkiv, wounding at least seven people.

More than 50 people had to be evacuated from the medical facility and dozens of buildings were damaged, according to the regional governor Oleh Syniehubov.

"World leaders speak of peace, but Russia's actions make its intentions clear," Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine's first deputy prime minister, wrote on social media after the strike. "It does not negotiate; it destroys."

And what of Russia's reaction to the extraordinary breakdown in the US Ukraine relationship?

The Kremlin would have seen what went down in the Oval Office between Trump, Vance and Zelenskyy as a gift.

Russian television stations played the heated exchange in full, with one describing it as a "diplomatic train wreck".

President Vladimir Putin is yet to comment on Zelenskyy's visit to Washington, however, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova described it as "a complete diplomatic failure of Kyiv".

"With his outrageously rude behaviour during his stay in Washington, Zelenskyy confirmed that he is the most dangerous threat to the world community as an irresponsible instigator of a major war," Zakharova said.

"The sooner Kyiv and certain European capitals realise this, the closer a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis will be."

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the deputy head of the Russian security council, said Russia was ready for flexibility in talks on Ukraine, but only in accordance with realities on the ground, state news agency RIA Novosti reported.

Russia occupies around one-fifth of Ukraine.

Medvedev said Russia was ready to discuss a settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, but only with those "who are ready to communicate".

Ukraine still ready to sign minerals agreement

The US-Ukraine relationship may have broken down, but President Zelenskyy appears to have hope that it can be repaired.

In his flurry of social media posts upon landing in London, he said Ukraine was "ready to sign the minerals agreement" but said that was a "first step towards security guarantees".

"A ceasefire without security guarantees is dangerous for Ukraine," he said.

Donald Trump has said Zelenskyy can "come back when he's ready for peace".

The trouble is, the two leaders differ widely on how to achieve it.

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