Extract from ABC News
Updated
Queensland Premier Campbell Newman is taking a gamble
calling a surprise early election, a Brisbane political scientist says,
with polling suggesting he faces a tough battle in his seat of
Ashgrove.
Less than three years ago he lead his party to an
historic landslide victory but is now fighting for his political life
against Labor's candidate Kate Jones.Griffith University senior lecturer in politics Paul Williams has tipped a close overall election result.
"This is going to be tight election and Labor, through the support of minor votes going to independents and minor parties, could fall across the line," Dr Williams said.
Mr Newman's popularity rapidly faded after his government introduced a tough first budget which shed thousands of public services jobs.
There have also been high profile run-ins with lawyers, doctors and teachers.
"If we had to put it down to one reason why the Newman got the public off guard so quickly, it's because it offended so many pressure groups all in the space of the first term," Dr Williams said.
"Pretty much every section of society would have found something to complain about with the Newman Government and pretty much it hasn't explained its reform package very well."
Ashgrove 'tidal wave' downplayed
Opinion polls show Mr Newman remains the preferred premier against Labor's Annastacia Palaszczuk, but in the battle for Ashgrove Dr Williams said the Premier may be "swept up" in a big swing."It's on a 5.7 per cent margin, which, again, is normally not ultra marginal but we're all expecting a very big swing in this election of 8 per cent to 10 per cent in metropolitan Brisbane so sadly for Mr Newman, at least on the numbers, it looks like he'll be swept up in that tidal wave," Dr Williams said.
Twenty-six days out from polling day, the Premier tried to avoid questions about who would lead the government should he fail in Ashgrove.
"Look, the campaign in Ashgrove is the same as the campaign against the state it's essentially who do you want as Premier?" Mr Newman said.
"So I won't be winning Ashgrove if we don't in the state and vice versa."
When a reporter said to Mr Newman there was a "real prospect that the LNP could win but you lose Ashgrove" he replied: "Well, I don't believe that's the case."
Labor's grassroots approach
The 2012 ballot left the Labor Party with only seven seats in parliament after holding 51 seats. It was the worst defeat of a sitting government in Queensland history.
Since then, Labor's numbers have been boosted after two by-elections with massive swings of more than 17 per cent.
Dr Williams said Labor's "biggest problem" was that until recently people did not know who the party's leader was.
Ms Palaszczuk has said she will run a grassroots campaign and would spend time on the election trail with the party's Ashgrove candidate Kate Jones.
"We are running grassroots campaigns right across the state. We are going door to door, street to street, suburb by suburb to make sure that Queenslanders know what Labor stand for and that we have good, strong local candidates that will stand up to this arrogant Newman Government," she said.
"I will be out there campaigning with Kate Jones.
"Kate is a very good friend of mine but Kate is campaigning hard just like every other Labor candidate is right across the state."
No comments:
Post a Comment