Coalition is losing its advantage across the board

Extract from ABC The Drum

Opinion

By ABC's Barrie Cassidy

Posted 51 minutes ago

Photo: Tony Abbott is known to wearisomely repeat words, but it seems the closer we get to an election, the fewer are the words worth repeating. (AAP: Lukas Coch)

From the Dyson Heydon game changer, to same-sex marriage and economic and national security policy - the Coalition is losing the edge on a number of key issues that will decide the next election, writes Barrie Cassidy.

The Abbott Government should be less concerned about declining opinion polls and more concerned about losing the edge on the key issues that will decide the next election.
As each day goes by the Coalition is losing its political advantage across the board.
Now - and again out of a clear blue sky - the extraordinary revelations that the royal commissioner, Dyson Heydon, planned to address a Liberal Party fundraiser is another significant game changer.
Given that the Government has no real plans for workplace reform, and that strikes are barely an issue these days, then the Abbott Government is relying on the Royal Commission to deliver a stinging rebuke to militant unions - and perhaps serious collateral damage to Bill Shorten in the process.
Now the stumble by Mr Heydon threatens to derail even that political advantage.
That Mr Heydon could agree to a speech at a Liberal Party event while the commission is ongoing - and whether he knew it was a fundraiser or not - raises serious questions as to his ongoing role and casts a dark cloud over the commission's deliberations and findings.
The Government can shrug it off all it likes, but the misstep allows Labor to go flat out dismissing the whole exercise as an attempt by Tony Abbott to smear a political opponent.
As it is, the election will be held against a background of ballooning debt and a budget in deficit for years to come. Though the Coalition won an election vowing to fix both problems, nothing has changed. That virtually negates the economy, and fiscal consolidation, as a winning issue this time around.
When he gets clear air, the Prime Minister wants to focus on jobs and growth. But unemployment is higher than it has been for more than a decade.
Abbott will say over and over that he threw out the carbon tax and the mining tax and stopped the boats.
It's easy to identify what the Government has torn down; a lot harder to identify what it plans to build.
Similarly, there is a long list of initiatives it will not take - like GST reform without the states, modest industrial relations reforms as recommended by the Productivity Commission, changes around superannuation - but few pointers to a positive legislative agenda.
In a recent article in the Fairfax media, associate professor of political science at the University of Melbourne, Sally Young, raised the question as to whether the Abbott Government was the worst ever; that is, in terms of effectiveness.
She conceded her approach values quantity over quality and doesn't measure how important the legislation was or its impact.
However, based on legislation passed, the Abbott Government is the least efficient in 44 years.
On national security, the Coalition will always have an advantage. But even that is mitigated because the Shorten Opposition has signed up - so far - to all of the Government's major initiatives.
Likewise, the boats issue has been neutralised with the ALP mirroring the Government on turn-backs policy.
Climate change too, a huge advantage to the Coalition at the last election, is now shaping up as a nil-all draw.
The Government is well placed to re-run a scare campaign over the ALP's commitment to an emissions trading scheme. The Prime Minister is capable of mounting a powerful argument that any market mechanism is a carbon tax.
However, Labor's populist aspiration for 50 per cent renewables by 2030 appeals to voters who want to do their bit to save the environment. If they can overcome the fears of increased electricity prices and persuade the electorate that paying a little more now will avoid paying a lot more down the track, then they will be well on the way to neutralising that issue as well.
And given the events of this week, surely the same-sex marriage issue is now a clear winner for Labor.
As Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull said this week, a free vote for Coalition MPs would have resolved the issue within weeks.
Instead, he said: "It will mean that this issue is a live issue all the way up to the next election and, indeed, at the next election."
Bill Shorten's line, "You can have Tony Abbott or you can have same-sex marriage, but you can't have both," will get a solid workout.
The same-sex marriage issue has opened up deep wounds within the Coalition and caused the Liberal Party to examine its core values and traditions.
At the height of the Coalition party room debate on Tuesday, Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg pointed to a portrait of the party's founder, Robert Menzies, and quoted from a speech he had delivered on divorce laws in March 1958.
Menzies told the Parliament that "the question of divorce closely touches the individual conscience of members (and) though it will be a government measure, it shall not be treated as a party measure. Therefore honourable members will be in a position to discuss it according to their own ... views."
It is hard to see how the Liberal Party, 57 years on, and being true to the spirit of individualism, can argue that the same-sex marriage issue should be treated any differently.
And it now seems likely that the Coalition cannot rely on News Corp - and particularly The Australian - for a free ride. That newspaper seems just as intent on fair and balanced coverage as any other.
In an editorial on Tuesday, the paper wrote of Abbott's long list of mistakes and said:

The common thread is lousy judgment, a poor sense of political priorities, inept messaging via the media, and a tin ear for the concerns and the reactions of the electorate...
Back in November last year we said the Abbott administration was doomed without a narrative and remarked that 'the prime minister is losing the battle to define core issues and to explain to voters what he is doing and why. Mr Abbott's approach to messaging is a shambles of conception, strategy and execution. Too often the Abbott government maddeningly vacates the media space.'

The editorial continued:

Mr Abbott and his office under Peta Credlin's leadership must take responsibility...
As it approaches yet another political reset as a triumph of hope over experience, the PMO appears afflicted by its old bunker mentality...
Similarly, personal mistrust has stood in the way of Mr Abbott making better frontbench use of Malcolm Turnbull's undeniable talents. Loyalty is an admirable quality but if it trumps administrative merit and the national interest - why is the underwhelming Mr Hockey still treasurer? - Mr Abbott begins to look like just another political hack.

The Government's strongest pitch will be the "too soon" factor - too soon to reward Labor after a period of political turmoil and leadership instability.
Yet even on that score, the Coalition has had its own leadership tensions. And as unpopular as Shorten is, it's worth recalling that the electorate installed a deeply unpopular Abbott as Prime Minister because they were so disappointed with the previous government.
Abbott is a world class battologist: that is, he has a predilection to "wearisomely repeat words". But it seems the closer we get to an election, the fewer are the words worth repeating.

Barrie Cassidy is the presenter of the ABC program Insiders. He writes a weekly column for The Drum.