Bernardi bets on wave of destruction but future of rightwing populism is in Trump’s hands

Extract from The Guardian

Peter Lewis

Malcolm Turnbull is facing a one-man existential crisis but the US will decide whether the political class is defeated or rises again

Cory Bernardi explainer: why his defection means trouble for Turnbull

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Wednesday 8 February 2017 06.00 AEDT 

Cory Bernardi may be just the latest in a growing line of chancers to jump on the global wave of reactionary, rightwing populism but, for Malcolm Turnbull, he is a one-man existential crisis.
Well-versed in the basics of US-grown God-fearing, flag-waving, science-trashing individualism, although more Ted Cruz than Donald Trump in orientation, Bernardi’s defection from the Coalition seems calculated to tap the zeitgeist.
And just as Trump ripped the Republican party in two through the primaries, the local environment is ripe for a similar schism in the Australian right.
Paralysed between the pressures of his conservative base and his libertarian instincts, the prime minister is leading a government in name only, with an agenda limited to pushing through corporate tax cuts, fighting culture wars and holding back the tide on renewable energy.
This is reflected in terrible polling numbers in the new year, which continued in this week’s Essential Report.

	Total	Last week 31 Jan 2017	Election 2 July 2016
Liberal	33%	32%
National	2%	3%
Total Liberal/National	36%	35%	42%
Labor	37%	37%	34.7%
Greens	8%	9%	10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team	3%	3%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation	10%	10%
Other/Independent	6%	6%	13.1%

 2 party preferred

	Total	Last week 31 Jan 2017	Election 2 July 2016
Labor	53%	54%	49.6%
Liberal/National	47%	46%	50.4%

Turnbull has already been absorbing pressure from the restless Tony Abbott, the bombastic George Christensen and the spectre of a resurgent One Nation party, all of whom have the natural advantage in believing in their brand of populism.
And, to amplify the tensions, the Trump presidency rockets on its path of destruction, putting what used to be dismissed as crude slogans designed to fire up a base into actual, real-world, superpower policy.
Australian reaction to the Trump circus illustrates the challenges the Coalition government will face in the coming months.

 The US President Donald Trump has temporarily banned people from 7 Muslim countries from entering the United States. Do you approve or disapprove of this ban?

	Total	Vote Labor	Vote Lib/Nat	Vote Greens	Vote other
Total approve	36%	28%	43%	10%	66%
Total disapprove	49%	63%	42%	78%	25%
Don't know	14%	9%	15%	13%	10%

While there are strong rejections of the Muslim ban by Labor and Green voters and predictably strong support from those already voting outside the major parties, it is the Coalition that is split down the middle.
Yes, it’s only one issue, but it goes to the heart of the cultural agenda of a conservative right which is itself is fragmenting in four different directions – all drawing votes away from the Coalition.
The fragmentation of the right looks like this:
Nationalist, regional populism – Pauline Hanson’s One Nation already has 10% of the national vote. She is attracting defectors from the LNP in Queensland and is likely to win lower house seats there, creating a possible base for a new rightwing party with a footprint into New South Wales and Western Australia. In terms of policy, there is also strong alignment with Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania.
Libertarian – Senator David Leyonhjelm, with about 3% of the NSW vote, has now been elected to the Senate twice, importantly also under new voting system. In contrast to One Nation he is not protectionist but a champion of small government and anti-regulation in outlook, a position endorsed and fomented by the high-profile corporate-funded Institute of Public Affairs.
Nick Xenophon Team – really centre-right, based regionally in South Australia but economically protectionist and shares that policy with Hanson. While 70% of Xenophon’s votes are coming from the Liberals, 57% of his preferences are going to Labor. He has won a federal seat off the Libs and went close in two others. Will win several seats in SA election on current numbers.

Into this mix comes Bernardi’s Christian right – with a still-to-be-defined mix of moral majority meets Family First. He also has the assets of wealthy backers and the Conservative party name. The big question will be if others are prepared to follow him or if he is isolated as the “mouth of the (Australian) south”.
Even a prime minister with strong public support and a proven ability to manage internal stakeholders would be challenged by this rag-bag of self-styled outsiders.
No matter the issue, the base is vulnerable. Moral issues will split the vote, libertarian issues will split the vote, economic issues will split the vote further, corporate support in tax cuts will split the vote.
Meanwhile, the dynamics of Trump will keep foreign policy issues and immigration, refugees and race on the agenda, putting Turnbull under constant pressure to go “harder” on national security to stifle dissent on the right but at the cost of his personal standing and brand.
What is Turnbull left with as a set of policies that can unify the conservative side of politics? To paraphrase John Howard: the things that divide the conservatives are now greater than the things that unite them.

The one hope for Turnbull is that Bernardi and the other populists putting themselves forward as individuals who can rise above the system is that they may have left their run too late.
With Trump in power we can now see first-hand what actually happens when an individual asserts control of a political culture, whipping up panics, turning his back on evidence-based policies, winging it with only the megaphone of power.
If Trump somehow delivers succour and security to the dispossessed without actually sending the US and the world over the edge, then two-party states around the world will face a deepening crisis of mission.
But if, as appears more likely, he is exposed as an incompetent phoney whose shortcomings cost lives then the idea of a professional political class may well have a renaissance as we seek stability in a fractured world.
In short, the question that both Turnbull and Bernardi are staking their future on is: will Trump-ism spark a wave of rightwing populism or will it defeat it?