Extract from The Guardian
Coalition’s income tax cut would need to be $25 to $35 per week to make a difference to families
Voters rank boosting ongoing funding for hospitals and schools and
assisting job creating industries ahead of the personal income tax cuts
the Turnbull government is poised to deliver as the centrepiece of
Tuesday night’s budget.
The latest Guardian Essential poll also suggests the looming income tax cut will need to be in the order of $25 to $35 or more per week to make a practical difference to Australian families at a time when wages growth has been stagnant, with 34% saying that they would require $35 or more per week to register an impact.
In an effort to massage expectations, the Turnbull government has been telegraphing Tuesday night’s tax cuts will be modest, and targeted initially at low and middle-income earners, with a sanctioned pre-budget leak suggesting the low-income tax offset will be increased. Tax cuts for higher-income earners will be scheduled over the medium term.
As well as the tax cuts, the government has foreshadowed a significant infrastructure spend in the states that will determine the outcome of the next federal election, and a return to budget balance earlier than forecast in last year’s midyear economic outlook on the back of a substantial improvement in revenue collections.
There will also be a substantial package for aged care, including a big spend on expanding in-home care.
When asked to rate their budget priorities for 2018, the Guardian Essential survey of 1,033 voters nominated increased spending for healthcare (67%), age pensions (56%), education (55%) and affordable housing (52%).
Since the questions were asked of voters a year ago, support has increased for spending on assistance to the unemployed (up 11%) – perhaps reflecting a consistent campaign to boost Newstart from business and social welfare groups – age pensions (up 8%), more affordable housing (up 8%) and assistance to the needy in Australia (up 8%).
Voters were asked whether spending should be decreased in a range of policy areas. The highest level of support for expenditure cuts was registered for the aid budget (48%), business assistance (33%) and military/defence (23%).
When ask to rank the most important issue for the 2018 budget to address, 28% thought that more funding to schools and hospitals was the most important, and 22% nominated supporting industries that create jobs.
The two big budget items – personal income tax cuts and building infrastructure – came in third and fourth on 17% and 12% respectively, while fully funding the national disability insurance scheme came in fifth on 8%.
The latest fortnightly poll has mixed news for the Turnbull government when current sentiment is compared with the very low voter expectations that preceded the budget the treasurer, Scott Morrison, delivered in 2017.
Based on results over the past two budgets, voters appear fixed in the view that the Turnbull government delivers for the well off (55% of the sample has that perception, up 11% from last year).
Just under half the sample, 47%, think the budget will be good for Australian business (up 4%) – perhaps reflecting the fact the government is persisting with its big business tax cut in Tuesday night’s statement despite parliamentary opposition – and 35% believe it will be good for the economy overall (up 14%).
In terms of their own position, voters are more optimistic about what Tuesday night will deliver than they were last year, although the improvement is off a low base – 18% think the budget will deliver personal improvements (up 8% from last year’s budget), while 24% thought it would be bad for them (down 6%).
There is also increasing optimism about the economy. Voters are more inclined to think the economy is improving than they were this time last year, with 39% rating the state of the economy as good (up 6% from November, and 9% since last May), while 24% thought it was bad.
Coalition supporters are more likely to think the economy has turned the corner than Labor, Greens and voters inclined to vote for someone other than the major parties.
While the Turnbull government hopes Tuesday night’s budget – the last one it is likely to deliver before Australians go to the polls – will help to reset its political fortunes, and project it on to a pre-election footing, the Coalition is going into budget week trailing Labor.
On the two-party preferred measure, Labor is ahead of the government 53% to 47%, which is the same result as the last two fortnightly surveys.
Malcolm Turnbull also remains ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, with Turnbull on 40% (down a point from last month) and 26% supporting Shorten (steady).
The approval ratings for the two leaders exhibited movement inside the poll’s margin of error, with 40% approving of the job Turnbull is doing (up 1% from last month) and 42% disapproving (steady), while 37% approved of Shorten’s performance (up 2%) and 41% disapproved (down 2%).
The latest Guardian Essential poll also suggests the looming income tax cut will need to be in the order of $25 to $35 or more per week to make a practical difference to Australian families at a time when wages growth has been stagnant, with 34% saying that they would require $35 or more per week to register an impact.
In an effort to massage expectations, the Turnbull government has been telegraphing Tuesday night’s tax cuts will be modest, and targeted initially at low and middle-income earners, with a sanctioned pre-budget leak suggesting the low-income tax offset will be increased. Tax cuts for higher-income earners will be scheduled over the medium term.
As well as the tax cuts, the government has foreshadowed a significant infrastructure spend in the states that will determine the outcome of the next federal election, and a return to budget balance earlier than forecast in last year’s midyear economic outlook on the back of a substantial improvement in revenue collections.
There will also be a substantial package for aged care, including a big spend on expanding in-home care.
When asked to rate their budget priorities for 2018, the Guardian Essential survey of 1,033 voters nominated increased spending for healthcare (67%), age pensions (56%), education (55%) and affordable housing (52%).
Since the questions were asked of voters a year ago, support has increased for spending on assistance to the unemployed (up 11%) – perhaps reflecting a consistent campaign to boost Newstart from business and social welfare groups – age pensions (up 8%), more affordable housing (up 8%) and assistance to the needy in Australia (up 8%).
Voters were asked whether spending should be decreased in a range of policy areas. The highest level of support for expenditure cuts was registered for the aid budget (48%), business assistance (33%) and military/defence (23%).
When ask to rank the most important issue for the 2018 budget to address, 28% thought that more funding to schools and hospitals was the most important, and 22% nominated supporting industries that create jobs.
The two big budget items – personal income tax cuts and building infrastructure – came in third and fourth on 17% and 12% respectively, while fully funding the national disability insurance scheme came in fifth on 8%.
The latest fortnightly poll has mixed news for the Turnbull government when current sentiment is compared with the very low voter expectations that preceded the budget the treasurer, Scott Morrison, delivered in 2017.
Based on results over the past two budgets, voters appear fixed in the view that the Turnbull government delivers for the well off (55% of the sample has that perception, up 11% from last year).
Just under half the sample, 47%, think the budget will be good for Australian business (up 4%) – perhaps reflecting the fact the government is persisting with its big business tax cut in Tuesday night’s statement despite parliamentary opposition – and 35% believe it will be good for the economy overall (up 14%).
In terms of their own position, voters are more optimistic about what Tuesday night will deliver than they were last year, although the improvement is off a low base – 18% think the budget will deliver personal improvements (up 8% from last year’s budget), while 24% thought it would be bad for them (down 6%).
There is also increasing optimism about the economy. Voters are more inclined to think the economy is improving than they were this time last year, with 39% rating the state of the economy as good (up 6% from November, and 9% since last May), while 24% thought it was bad.
Coalition supporters are more likely to think the economy has turned the corner than Labor, Greens and voters inclined to vote for someone other than the major parties.
While the Turnbull government hopes Tuesday night’s budget – the last one it is likely to deliver before Australians go to the polls – will help to reset its political fortunes, and project it on to a pre-election footing, the Coalition is going into budget week trailing Labor.
On the two-party preferred measure, Labor is ahead of the government 53% to 47%, which is the same result as the last two fortnightly surveys.
Malcolm Turnbull also remains ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, with Turnbull on 40% (down a point from last month) and 26% supporting Shorten (steady).
The approval ratings for the two leaders exhibited movement inside the poll’s margin of error, with 40% approving of the job Turnbull is doing (up 1% from last month) and 42% disapproving (steady), while 37% approved of Shorten’s performance (up 2%) and 41% disapproved (down 2%).
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