Extract from The Guardian
Signs of success might include new finance targets, amicable talks and movement from climate laggards.
Boris Johnson at the Cop26 launch in February 2020.
Last modified on Sun 31 Oct 2021 02.01 AEDT
The only consensus, so far, about Cop26 is that there will not be one big deal that everyone can hug and cheer about. So what will experts be looking for, to indicate some kind of success?
Keeping 1.5C alive is key, and anything that helps with that will be vital. Up until now, government pledges have kept us on the road to a catastrophic 2.7C of warming. This year – if every government actually delivers on all the promises that have been made – that has been brought down to 2.1C. Anything that firms up those promises, or brings that target even lower, is a good sign. New targets from China and India would be particularly welcome.
The spirit of the negotiations. If countries can negotiate amicably and constructively, that will be good news. Certain countries may seek to sow discord: it will be interesting to see how that is handled.
Tangible short-term progress and a trackable roadmap towards long-term goals. Success will be Johnsonesquely empty if Glasgow is merely about leaders congratulating themselves for goals set 30 years into the future. To maintain credibility, the Cop process needs to demonstrate urgency. If emissions aren’t on a clear downward trajectory by 2025, it will have been a failure.
A global methane deal. The US and EU recently pledged to reduce their methane emissions by 30%. If that can be expanded to a global deal, with hard numbers – such as a 40% reduction – that would be a real win.
No new coal is pretty unlikely given the current energy crisis, but any progress on getting countries to commit to phasing out coal would be welcome.
An end to the internal combustion engine. Boris Johnson is branding Cop26 the “coal, cars, cash and trees” conference. A deal to phase out the manufacture of petrol and diesel cars by, say, 2030, would be pretty eye-catching.
Deforestation and land use is one of the big drivers of climate change: governments should be aiming for new deals here.
Climate finance. At the very least, Cop26 should seek to hit the $100bn threshold on climate finance that was promised in 2009. Better still, hit that target, and then set a new one. Best of all, commit some of that money to adaptation – which means it will reach the poorest countries that so desperately need it.
More stragglers catching up. In the weeks before Cop26, Russia has said it will target net zero by 2060, Turkey has finally ratified the Paris agreement and the UAE has become the first Gulf state to commit to net zero carbon emissions by the middle of the century. More announcements from climate laggards are possible in Glasgow.
Article 6 of the Paris agreement was focused on setting up global emissions trading schemes. But carbon markets remain piecemeal and controversial: progress on this would be significant.
Concrete manufacturers. A deal on emissions reduction.
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