Extract from ABC News
New economic modelling shows most Victorian regions will see strong employment and economic growth if Australia transitions to a fully net zero economy.
Key points:
- The analysis shows with net zero emissions the economy will grow at an average of 2.56 per cent per year, 0.03 below a business-as-usual approach
- The Ballarat, Hume and South-West regions would see the highest economic benefit, while the Latrobe Valley would see a slight downturn
- Experts say Australia can't rely on a 15 per cent emission reduction from technology that doesn't exist
The analysis from the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University asserts that even without "optimistic speculation" in green investments, most areas in regional Victoria would be at an advantage if net zero were to be reached by 2050.
The findings follow the release of the federal government's plan to reach net zero in 30 years, detailing a strategy to reduce emissions by 85 per cent – based on 2005 levels – with a further 15 per cent reduction in emissions to come as result of "future technology" breakthroughs.
Economic experts have called the federal government's plan overly optimistic.
Victoria University economics professor Philip Adams said Australia should be heavily investing in creating domestic green technology.
"I believe it's very optimistic to assume that, by moving to zero emissions in this cherrypicking way, the countries outside of Australia will not continue to penalise us with carbon-border adjustment mechanisms and carbon tariffs," he said.
"I don't think Australia can simply sit back and choose which new technologies it'll use and which technologies it doesn't use.
The author of Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050: What it means for the Australian Economy, Industries and Regions said his new report outlined two scenarios — a business-as-usual approach and a transition to net zero emissions by 2050, using a similar method to the federal government's plan.
Under both scenarios all areas of Victoria will experience economic and jobs growth.
The analysis shows with net zero emissions the Australian economy will grow at an average of 2.56 per cent per year, 0.03 below the business-as-usual approach.
It pegs the declining cost of green technology as a major contributing factor.
The Ballarat, Hume and South-West regions would see the greatest economic benefit, according to the report.
"These studies have shown, very clearly, that we can achieve significant cuts in emissions at a moderate cost," Dr Adams said.
"That cost amounts to the GDP being roughly 1 per cent less that what it would've been in 2050.
What about coal-driven areas?
Dr Adams emphasised that the impact on regional Victorian economies that rely on industries such as coal mining would "only be slight".
The Latrobe Valley and Gippsland regions, both heavily dependent on coal mining and coal electricity generation, would see lower jobs growth under the modelling.
The independent Member for Morwell, Russell Northe, said the findings of the study were obvious to his constituents.
"It's a no-brainer that this community has the most to lose under these measures, whether it's emissions reductions, whether it's renewable energy targets, or net zero by 2050," he said.
Mr Northe said despite the clear effect a transition would have on the Latrobe Valley, no government has yet modelled how that would play out.
"It should be a matter of practice that governments ensure they're doing the modelling work to understand not only the positive outcomes which they are spruiking, but also about the perverse outcomes for communities like the Latrobe Valley," he said.
Regions preparing for net zero
Wimmera Development Association executive director Chris Sounness said he believed it was realistic Australia could reach net zero by 2050.
"I think the responsibilities are equally shared amongst all and there's only one way we get there, and that's if we all take responsibility," he said.
"If we expect some other sector to do all the heavy lifting, and us as individuals or us in a particular industry think that we don't have to do anything, then we definitely won't get there."
Federal Trade, Tourism and Investment Minister Dan Tehan, said it was vital to be "smart" about the transition.
"What I know the government will ensure, is that our regions will remain strong as we transition our economy," Mr Tehan said.
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