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MAHATMA GANDHI ~ Truth never damages a cause that is just.
Over
the past week, more than 450 researchers gathered in Hobart for the
inaugural Australian Antarctic Research Conference — the first such
event in more than a decade.
Early
career researchers have issued a statement, warning urgent action is
needed to prevent catastrophic sea level rise around the world.
What's next?
Scientists say it's vital that societies reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the speed and severity of climate change.
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Hundreds
of polar researchers have issued an emergency statement calling for
urgent action to deal with the impacts of climate change in Antarctica.
Antarctica
and the Southern Ocean have been undergoing rapid and extreme changes
in recent years, including unprecedented heatwaves and record-low sea
ice levels.
Over the past week,
more than 450 researchers gathered in Hobart for the inaugural
Australian Antarctic Research Conference — the first such event in more
than a decade.
Almost
two thirds of attendees were early career researchers, who have
released a joint statement titled, Making Antarctica Cool Again.
The statement warns of the potential dire consequences of global sea level rise caused by melting ice sheets.
"Nowhere
on Earth is there a greater cause of uncertainty in sea level rise
projections than from East Antarctica, in Australia's backyard," the
statement says.
"The
East Antarctic ice sheet alone holds enough water to raise global sea
levels by approximately 50 metres if completely melted.
"Implications for our coastal cities and infrastructure are immense."
In
the past 30 years, global sea levels have risen by about 10
centimetres, according to the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership
(AAPP).
Scientists say sea levels could rise by up to one metre by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario.
They are becoming increasingly concerned about melting ice in Antarctica.
The
continent is currently estimated to lose 17 million tonnes of ice — the
equivalent of a giant ice cube measuring 260 metres each side — every
hour, the AAPP says.
"The
services of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica — oceanic carbon sink and
planetary air conditioner — have been taken for granted," the
researchers' statement says.
"Global warming induced shifts observed in the region are immense.
"Recent
research has shown record low sea ice, extreme heatwaves exceeding 40
degrees Celsius above average temperatures, and increased instability
around key ice shelves."
The statement says societies need to urgently "bend the carbon curve" by reducing greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible.
"Runaway ice loss causing rapid and catastrophic sea level rise is possible within our lifetime," it says.
"Whether such irreversible tipping points have already passed is unknown."
Early career researchers call for action
Dr
Natalia Ribeiro, an ocean and cryosphere specialist at the University
of Tasmania, said the statement was designed to convey the reality of
the situation to the broader community.
"Although
there's lots of tipping points that we don't necessarily understand
completely, we do know enough to say that we do need to protect, we do
need to control our emissions," she said.
"And for that to happen, it needs to go beyond the walls of the university.
"We
need to make sure people understand that and relate to Antarctica in a
way that they see that it impacts their future as well."
Oceanographer
James Wyatt from the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership said the
importance of polar research could not be overstated.
"We're approaching some tipping points that we're not sure whether we can reverse or not," he said.
"So more funding into those areas is pretty crucial to understand how it's going to affect our planet."
Dr
Edward Doddridge, a climate scientist from the Institute of Marine and
Antarctic Scientists, praised the early career researchers for bringing
urgency and energy to an issue of global importance.
"We throw around the word unprecedented quite a lot in climate science, but it really is true," Dr Doddridge said.
"We
have seen shifts in the sea ice that were beyond our wildest
imaginations. We have seen heat waves that were 40 degrees warmer than
expected weather.
The weather is heating up across Australia, both figuratively and literally.
South-east
states are currently baking in temperatures up to 17 degrees above
average, while a near nationwide outbreak of thunderstorms is brewing
through the final days of spring.
For
South Australia and Victoria, the thundery change will bring cool
relief this weekend, however, the heatwave is set to linger across New
South Wales into the middle of next week.
Ultimately,
the rainband will win the battle, intensifying into a major
thunderstorm outbreak through the week from the Top End, through the
interior to southern Victoria, eventually spreading east to Queensland
and NSW.
This broad spread of
storms along with the slow-moving nature of the system will result in up
to 100mm of rain across multiple states by next weekend, heralding a
wet and stormy finish to 2024.
Heatwave to shift east this weekend
The
burst of late spring heat is due to a hot northerly airstream being
squeezed south between a high-pressure system in the Tasman Sea and a
trough of low pressure approaching from central Australia.
This
set-up has already produced the hottest November temperatures in more
than a decade across parts of south-east Australia, including maximums
on Friday of:
Melbourne 37C — hottest spring day in five years
Mortlake 37.1C — hottest spring day in 12 years
Warrnambool 36.9C — hottest spring day in 12 years
Mount Gambier 37.7C — hottest spring weather in 42 years
Rain
and cooler southerlies will start to filter through SA on Saturday,
however, an even hotter day is predicted for Victoria and Tasmania as
the northerly winds freshen.
Melbourne
is again forecast to reach around 37C on Saturday, 15 above the city's
November average and just 4C off an all-time spring record.
The
combination of heat, winds to 35kph and dry air will also raise the
fire danger to extreme levels in north-west Victoria before a cool
south-westerly change arrives in the late afternoon and evening.
Relief should reach Melbourne from about 4pm, leading to a temperature drop from the mid-30s to the mid-20s in about 60 minutes.
Typically,
cool changes take around 24 hours to move from Melbourne to Sydney,
however, the change will stall on Sunday and lead to a continuation of a
heatwave across southern and central NSW into the new week.
Sydney's
west is likely to reach the mid to high 30s until at least Wednesday,
potentially even recording four consecutive days above 35C for the first
time in spring in 15 years — enough to warrant a low-intensity heatwave
warning.
A slightly milder
north-easterly breeze off the Tasman (not quite a classic sea breeze)
will keep Sydney's east closer to about 30C over the coming days,
peaking at 32C in the CBD on Tuesday —the hottest day in at least eight
months
Away from the coast, a
severe heatwave warning is in force for south-east NSW where
temperatures will climb about 10 degrees above average for up to four
days.
So, when will NSW finally cool down?
Modelling
is currently showing a wide variety of scenarios of when cooler weather
will arrive in eastern NSW, with a range from Thursday to even as far
out as next Sunday.
Thundery finish to spring brings nationwide soaking
The
trough responsible for the cool change is also generating a band of
thundery rain as tropical moisture feeds south across the nation
Earlier
this week, the system brought near-record falls to Western Australia,
including 65mm at Kalgoorlie, about four times their monthly average.
A
separate weather system has also brought a deluge to Queensland, which
included up to 170mm on the Gold Coast in 24 hours to 9am Friday.
The
rainband from the west will gradually work its way east through SA,
Victoria, and central Australia this weekend before stalling and
bringing additional stormy days in a broad band from Darwin to southern
Victoria through Monday and Tuesday.
Through
the next four days, most of the Northern Territory, SA, Victoria and
far western NSW can expect about 10 to 30mm, with a few pockets closer
to 50mm.
The trough is then
likely to deepen into a full-blown low-pressure system by Wednesday —
and with a continued influx of humid air from the north will result in
more intense rain and storms, which will eventually spread east through
Queensland and NSW by the end of the week.
The
outcome of this sustained soaking is the majority of Australia will see
significant rainfall at some point through the next eight days with
multiple areas across several states likely to receive close to 100mm.
Severe
thunderstorms are also likely, particularly from Tuesday onwards once
the low begins forming, and the main threat appears to flash-flooding
due to the abundant atmospheric moisture streaming in from the tropics.
November rain a taste of a stormy December
The
thundery finish to spring is not just random weather variability, but
rather, is a likely indication of the probable prevailing weather
patterns through December.
This
outlook for above-average rain is thanks to numerous climate drivers
swinging to a wet phase including, a positive SAM, a negative IOD,
near-record high global sea temperatures and pulse of the MJO.
The
latest monthly forecast from the Bureau Of Meteorology shows all
regions of Australia apart from western Tasmania are likely to see
above-median rain next month, including a greater than 70 per cent risk
in many parts of WA, the northern tropics and eastern inland.
A volcano near Iceland's capital has erupted for the seventh time in a year, spewing fountains of lava and smoke.
While
the eruption poses no threat to air travel, authorities warned of gas
emissions across parts of the peninsula including the nearby town of
GrindavÃk.
What's next?
Experts have warned that the area is likely to experience repeated volcanic outbreaks for decades, possibly even centuries.
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A
volcano near Iceland's capital has erupted for the seventh time in a
year, spewing fountains of lava and smoke, the country's meteorological
office said.
The eruption, which occurred on the Reykjanes Peninsula in south-western Iceland, also marks the volcano's tenth in three years.
It
kicked off at 11:14pm local time on Wednesday and created a fissure
around three kilometres long but was estimated to be considerably
smaller than a previous eruption in August, the meteorological office
said.
The first signs of an
eruption were recorded just 45 minutes before the massive ground fissure
was opened by magma forcing its way through the earth's crust.
While
the eruption poses no threat to air travel, authorities warned of gas
emissions across parts of the peninsula including the nearby town of
GrindavÃk.
In a Facebook post,
the office said the crack remained "the most active around its centre"
while lava was spewing west and north of the volcano.
The
western lava flow, moving at 300 metres per hour, had crossed the
GrindavÃk road and approached the NjarðvÃkuræð pipeline which services
the area with hot water.
Icelandic town deserted after repeated volcanic activity
Authorities
had previously warned of volcanic activity as magma accumulated beneath
the Reykjanes Peninsula, where the most recent eruption ended only on
September 6.
Repeated volcanic
eruptions close to GrindavÃk — a town of 3,800 people about 50
kilometres south-west of the capital Reykjavik — have damaged
infrastructure and property and forced many residents to relocate after
the first evacuation orders came in December last year.
There
was no indication that lava was flowing towards the town, but some 50
houses occupied by people who have returned were evacuated, the civil
protection agency said in a statement.
"In
the big picture, this is a bit smaller than the last eruption and the
eruption that occurred in May," said Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson, a
professor of geophysics who flew over the eruption with the Civil
Protection agency to monitor the eruption.
"GrindavÃk
is not in danger as it looks and it is unlikely that this crack will
get any longer, although nothing can be ruled out," he said.
Eruptions to continue
After
lying dormant for 800 years, the geological systems in the area
reactivated in 2021 and have since erupted at rising frequency.
Experts have warned that Reykjanes is likely to experience repeated volcanic outbreaks for decades, possibly even centuries.
Iceland, which sits above a volcanic hot spot in the North Atlantic, averages one eruption every four to five years.
The
most disruptive in recent times was the 2010 eruption of the
Eyjafjallajokull volcano, which spewed clouds of ash into the atmosphere
and disrupted trans-Atlantic air travel for months.
Indian
billionaire Gautam Adani has been indicted by US prosecutors for his
alleged role in a $US265 million ($407 million) bribery scheme, plunging
his industrial conglomerate Adani Group deep into crisis and causing
share prices to tumble.
Mr Adani is now one of the few billionaires formally accused in the US of criminal wrongdoing.
So, just how powerful is Gautam Adani? And why has he been charged?
Who is Gautam Adani?
The businessman is one of the world's most wealthy people.
He's worth $US69.8 billion ($107.1 billion), according to Forbes magazine, making him India's second-richest man.
Born
to a middle-class family in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, he dropped out of
school at 16 and moved to Mumbai to find work in the gem trade.
After
a short stint in his brother's plastics business, he launched the
flagship family conglomerate that bears his name in 1988.
He
built his fortune in the coal business, with the Adani Group later
growing to involve many aspects of Indian life: from making defence
equipment, to building roads and selling cooking oil.
In recent years, the company has also made moves into renewable energy.
Mr
Adani, 62, differs from his peers among India's mega-rich, many of whom
are known for throwing lavish birthday and wedding celebrations that
are later splashed across newspaper gossip pages.
A
self-described introvert, he keeps a low profile and rarely speaks to
the media, often sending lieutenants to front corporate events.
"I'm not a social person that wants to go to parties," he told the Financial Times in a 2013 interview.
Why has he been charged?
The
indictment in New York accuses Adani Group's leadership of paying more
than $US265 million ($407 million) to Indian government officials to
secure lucrative contracts worth more than $US2 billion ($3 billion).
It
further charges Mr Adani and seven other officials with lying about the
bribery in order to raise capital from international investors,
including those in the United States.
The
indictment accuses Mr Adani of personally meeting with an Indian
government official to "advance" the bribery scheme, and of meeting with
other defendants to "discuss aspects of its execution".
In
a statement, the conglomerate denied the charges, calling them
"baseless", and said they were seeking "all possible" legal recourse.
How powerful is Gautam Adani?
Gautum
Adani wields significant power and influence — both in India and
globally — according to Griffith University professor Ian Hall.
"India's
economy is dominated by these big groups, and Adani Group has emerged
as one of the largest and most successful over the last 10 years," the
veteran India analyst told the ABC.
"He wields an increasing amount of influence more broadly because of some of the projects that he's involved in.
"Projects
like like the ports and shipping businesses are strategically
important, in themselves, but also in an era where there's competition
going on between China and the United States and other players over
things like supply chains.
"To
have an actor like Adani in that particular space makes him politically
important, even beyond the connections that he has with the Indian
government."
How close is he to India's prime minister, Narendra Modi?
Mr
Adani is considered a close associate of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,
even offering the leader the use of a private company jet during the
2014 election campaign that swept him to power.
Opposition
parties and other critics have long claimed their relationship helped
him to unfairly win business and avoid proper oversight.
He's
still very close to Mr Modi, according to Professor Hall, after
initially establishing a relationship when the Indian prime minister was
the chief minister of Gujarat.
"They
worked together so that he could assist the BJP [Bharatiya Janata
Party] in Modi's campaigns and finance some of that," he said.
"And
in return, if you like, he got all the things that go with being close
to politicians: access to information, sometimes access to things like
loans, and so on."
Mr Adani
also owns several media businesses, such as New Delhi Television (NDTV),
which shifted strongly to support the Modi government following its
takeover. The network was previously considered one of the few media
outlets willing to criticise Mr Modi.
"His media outlets are very pro-government, pro-Modi, pro-BJP," Professor Hall said.
How will Modi's government respond?
Narendra
Modi's government has yet to comment on the charges but a spokesman for
his ruling party, Amit Malviya, said the indictment appeared to
implicate opposition parties rather than his own.
UNSW
Associate Professor Mark Humphery-Jenner, an expert in corporate
finance and law, says the charges pose a unique political challenge for
Narendra Modi.
"In
almost any other circumstance, if someone is alleged to have engaged in
wide-scale bribery, and alleged to have engaged in widespread
securities fraud, that should be a relatively standard case where you
could extradite them," he told The World.
"However, because Gautam Adani is so close to Narendra Modi … it's certainly going to be a diplomatic headache."
What are Adani's interests in Australia?
The
Adani Group's Australian subsidiary, Bravus, owns Central Queensland's
Carmichael coalmine, one of the most contentious mining projects in
Australian history.
Since
its approval a decade ago, it has generated strong community opposition
over impacts on the Great Barrier Reef and groundwater, and its carbon
emissions.
It sparked years of "Stop Adani" protests from concerned environmental activists.
Bravus also owns and operates the North Queensland Export Terminal near Bowen, and the Rugby Run solar farm near Moranbah.
Hindenburg
said a pattern of "government leniency towards the group" stretching
back decades had left investors, journalists, citizens and politicians
unwilling to challenge its conduct "for fear of reprisal".
The
US firm is known as a short-seller, a term for Wall Street traders that
bet that prices of certain stocks will fall, and it had made such
investments in relation to Adani Group.
The
conglomerate denied wrongdoing and characterised the report as a
"calculated attack on India" but lost $150 billion in market
capitalisation in the weeks after the report's release.
Mr Adani saw his own net worth plunge by $60 billion over the same period.
But Professor Hall said that after the Hindenburg accusations were denied Adani Group had been able to move on.
"Post-Hindenburg
and post-election, they bounce back because [Mr Adani] has proved to be
able to make shareholder value and make profit.
"There's no shortage of investors within India and outside that would be willing to back his business."
How will India react to the charges?
Like the Hindenburg claims, the fraud allegations will cause controversy and scandal in India, according to Professor Hall.
"It will be met with lots of nodded heads amongst those who believe that Adani is up to no good," he said.
"There
will be lots of people, though, who will be deeply offended, and will
suggest that the United States is trying to slow India's rise or have a
go at the Modi government."
None
of the multiple defendants in the case, including Mr Adani, are in
custody, but India's opposition Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi said
the businessman should now be arrested.
"We demand that Adani be immediately arrested," Mr Gandhi told reporters in New Delhi.
"But we know that won't happen as Modi is protecting him.
"Modi can't act even if he wants to, because he is controlled by Adani," the politician said.
Could Donald Trump's presidency change things?
According
to Professor Hall, one aspect of the scandal that's been largely
overlooked is the effect on bilateral relations between the US and
India, which at the moment are strained due to an alleged murder plot of a Sikh separatist on US soil.
Another
related dimension is the upcoming presidency of Donald Trump, which
could impact Mr Adani's charges, Professor Hall said.
He
said it remained to be seen whether Mr Trump would pressure the US
Department of Justice to drop the charges against Mr Adani, and other
charges related to former Indian intelligence officials.
"There's
definitely a hope in Delhi that some of these charges could be made to
to go away, potentially, because of the political relationship between
Modi and Trump.
"And that that's a proposition that's yet to be tested."