Saturday, 23 November 2024

Antarctic researchers warn of possible 'catastrophic' sea level rise within our lifetime in group statement.

 Extract from ABC News

antarctic sea ice drops below the summer average of two and four million square kilometres

The joint statement says the implications of catastrophic ice melt "for our coastal cities and infrastructure are immense". (Supplied: antartica.gov.au)

In short

Over the past week, more than 450 researchers gathered in Hobart for the inaugural Australian Antarctic Research Conference — the first such event in more than a decade.

Early career researchers have issued a statement, warning urgent action is needed to prevent catastrophic sea level rise around the world.

What's next?

Scientists say it's vital that societies reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the speed and severity of climate change.

Hundreds of polar researchers have issued an emergency statement calling for urgent action to deal with the impacts of climate change in Antarctica.

Antarctica and the Southern Ocean have been undergoing rapid and extreme changes in recent years, including unprecedented heatwaves and record-low sea ice levels.

Over the past week, more than 450 researchers gathered in Hobart for the inaugural Australian Antarctic Research Conference — the first such event in more than a decade.

Emergency summit for Antarctica's future

Almost two thirds of attendees were early career researchers, who have released a joint statement titled, Making Antarctica Cool Again.

The statement warns of the potential dire consequences of global sea level rise caused by melting ice sheets.

"Nowhere on Earth is there a greater cause of uncertainty in sea level rise projections than from East Antarctica, in Australia's backyard," the statement says.

"The East Antarctic ice sheet alone holds enough water to raise global sea levels by approximately 50 metres if completely melted.

"Implications for our coastal cities and infrastructure are immense."

A large group of attendees at a conference pose for a photo.

The statement says the "new generation of researchers is committed to resolving these crises and sees an opportunity for us all to engage in forward-looking societal projects". (Supplied: Peter W Allen)

In the past 30 years, global sea levels have risen by about 10 centimetres, according to the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (AAPP).

Scientists say sea levels could rise by up to one metre by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario.

They are becoming increasingly concerned about melting ice in Antarctica.

An aerial view of white ice breaking up on a black sea

The statement says "recent research has shown record-low sea ice, extreme heatwaves exceeding 40°C above average temperatures, and increased instability around key ice shelves". (Supplied: AAD/Jan Lieser)

The continent is currently estimated to lose 17 million tonnes of ice — the equivalent of a giant ice cube measuring 260 metres each side — every hour, the AAPP says.

"The services of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica — oceanic carbon sink and planetary air conditioner — have been taken for granted," the researchers' statement says.

"Global warming induced shifts observed in the region are immense.

"Recent research has shown record low sea ice, extreme heatwaves exceeding 40 degrees Celsius above average temperatures, and increased instability around key ice shelves."

Dr Edward Doddridge, Dr Natalia Riberio and James Wyatt urge action on climate change.

The statement says societies need to urgently "bend the carbon curve" by reducing greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible.

"Runaway ice loss causing rapid and catastrophic sea level rise is possible within our lifetime," it says.

"Whether such irreversible tipping points have already passed is unknown."

A large orange and white ship among a sprawling sheet of ice.

They say "nowhere on Earth is there a greater cause of uncertainty in sea-level rise projections than from East Antarctica, in Australia's backyard". (Supplied: AAD)

Early career researchers call for action

Dr Natalia Ribeiro, an ocean and cryosphere specialist at the University of Tasmania, said the statement was designed to convey the reality of the situation to the broader community.

"Although there's lots of tipping points that we don't necessarily understand completely, we do know enough to say that we do need to protect, we do need to control our emissions," she said.

"And for that to happen, it needs to go beyond the walls of the university.

"We need to make sure people understand that and relate to Antarctica in a way that they see that it impacts their future as well."

Two people speaking in front of cameras and journalists

James Wyatt, pictured with Dr Natalia Riberio, says "more funding into those areas is pretty crucial to understand how it's going to affect our planet". (ABC News: Ebony ten Broeke)

Oceanographer James Wyatt from the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership said the importance of polar research could not be overstated.

"We're approaching some tipping points that we're not sure whether we can reverse or not," he said.

"So more funding into those areas is pretty crucial to understand how it's going to affect our planet."

Dr Edward Doddridge, a climate scientist from the Institute of Marine and Antarctic Scientists, praised the early career researchers for bringing urgency and energy to an issue of global importance.

"We throw around the word unprecedented quite a lot in climate science, but it really is true," Dr Doddridge said.

"We have seen shifts in the sea ice that were beyond our wildest imaginations. We have seen heat waves that were 40 degrees warmer than expected weather.

"We have seen entire colonies of Emperor penguins lose all of their young in a breeding season.

"To describe it as anything other than an emergency, sells these drastic changes short."

Major storm outbreak across Australia to follow hottest spring weather in up to 42 years.

 Extract from ABC News

Sunset overt he plains at Cohuna, Victoria with a solo tree standing in the distance

Thunderstorms are expected to bring some relief from the heat to South Australia and Victoria. (Supplied: Troy Wilson)

The weather is heating up across Australia, both figuratively and literally.

South-east states are currently baking in temperatures up to 17 degrees above average, while a near nationwide outbreak of thunderstorms is brewing through the final days of spring.

For South Australia and Victoria, the thundery change will bring cool relief this weekend, however, the heatwave is set to linger across New South Wales into the middle of next week.

Ultimately, the rainband will win the battle, intensifying into a major thunderstorm outbreak through the week from the Top End, through the interior to southern Victoria, eventually spreading east to Queensland and NSW.

This broad spread of storms along with the slow-moving nature of the system will result in up to 100mm of rain across multiple states by next weekend, heralding a wet and stormy finish to 2024.

a weather map of australia showing the rain forecast

A wet end to spring as a solid soaking hits most of Australia, with pockets even seeing around 100mm through the next eight days. (ABC News)

Heatwave to shift east this weekend

The burst of late spring heat is due to a hot northerly airstream being squeezed south between a high-pressure system in the Tasman Sea and a trough of low pressure approaching from central Australia.

This set-up has already produced the hottest November temperatures in more than a decade across parts of south-east Australia, including maximums on Friday of:

  • Melbourne 37C — hottest spring day in five years
  • Mortlake 37.1C — hottest spring day in 12 years
  • Warrnambool 36.9C — hottest spring day in 12 years
  • Mount Gambier 37.7C — hottest spring weather in 42 years

Rain and cooler southerlies will start to filter through SA on Saturday, however, an even hotter day is predicted for Victoria and Tasmania as the northerly winds freshen.

Melbourne is again forecast to reach around 37C on Saturday, 15 above the city's November average and just 4C off an all-time spring record.

The combination of heat, winds to 35kph and dry air will also raise the fire danger to extreme levels in north-west Victoria before a cool south-westerly change arrives in the late afternoon and evening.

a weather map showing Saturday temperatures for south east australia

A tight temperature gradient on Saturday afternoon as a cool south-westerly change pushes through western Victoria. (ABC News)

Relief should reach Melbourne from about 4pm, leading to a temperature drop from the mid-30s to the mid-20s in about 60 minutes.

Typically, cool changes take around 24 hours to move from Melbourne to Sydney, however, the change will stall on Sunday and lead to a continuation of a heatwave across southern and central NSW into the new week.

Sydney's west is likely to reach the mid to high 30s until at least Wednesday, potentially even recording four consecutive days above 35C for the first time in spring in 15 years — enough to warrant a low-intensity heatwave warning.

A slightly milder north-easterly breeze off the Tasman (not quite a classic sea breeze) will keep Sydney's east closer to about 30C over the coming days, peaking at 32C in the CBD on Tuesday —the hottest day in at least eight months

Away from the coast, a severe heatwave warning is in force for south-east NSW where temperatures will climb about 10 degrees above average for up to four days.

a weather map of new south wales showing a heatwave three days from Sunday

A low-intensity to severe heatwave is forecast to continue into early next week across south-east and central-east NSW. (ABC News)

So, when will NSW finally cool down?

Modelling is currently showing a wide variety of scenarios of when cooler weather will arrive in eastern NSW, with a range from Thursday to even as far out as next Sunday.

Thundery finish to spring brings nationwide soaking

The trough responsible for the cool change is also generating a band of thundery rain as tropical moisture feeds south across the nation

Earlier this week, the system brought near-record falls to Western Australia, including 65mm at Kalgoorlie, about four times their monthly average.

A separate weather system has also brought a deluge to Queensland, which included up to 170mm on the Gold Coast in 24 hours to 9am Friday.

The rainband from the west will gradually work its way east through SA, Victoria, and central Australia this weekend before stalling and bringing additional stormy days in a broad band from Darwin to southern Victoria through Monday and Tuesday.

A band of rain and storms will edge east across central and eastern Australia this week.

Through the next four days, most of the Northern Territory, SA, Victoria and far western NSW can expect about 10 to 30mm, with a few pockets closer to 50mm.

The trough is then likely to deepen into a full-blown low-pressure system by Wednesday — and with a continued influx of humid air from the north will result in more intense rain and storms, which will eventually spread east through Queensland and NSW by the end of the week.

The outcome of this sustained soaking is the majority of Australia will see significant rainfall at some point through the next eight days with multiple areas across several states likely to receive close to 100mm.

Severe thunderstorms are also likely, particularly from Tuesday onwards once the low begins forming, and the main threat appears to flash-flooding due to the abundant atmospheric moisture streaming in from the tropics.

November rain a taste of a stormy December

a weather map of australia showing the chances of a wet december

The pendulum has clearly swung to favour a wet December across most of Australia due to numerous wet climate drivers. (ABC News)

The thundery finish to spring is not just random weather variability, but rather, is a likely indication of the probable prevailing weather patterns through December.

This outlook for above-average rain is thanks to numerous climate drivers swinging to a wet phase including, a positive SAM, a negative IOD, near-record high global sea temperatures and pulse of the MJO.

The latest monthly forecast from the Bureau Of Meteorology shows all regions of Australia apart from western Tasmania are likely to see above-median rain next month, including a greater than 70 per cent risk in many parts of WA, the northern tropics and eastern inland.

Friday, 22 November 2024

Volcano on Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula erupts for the seventh time in a year.

Extract from ABC News

A line of fire lights up dark ground, with smoke rising from the scene

The eruption as seen from the road to Grindavik in Iceland. (AP: Marco di Marco)

In short:

A volcano near Iceland's capital has erupted for the seventh time in a year, spewing fountains of lava and smoke.

While the eruption poses no threat to air travel, authorities warned of gas emissions across parts of the peninsula including the nearby town of Grindavík.

What's next?

Experts have warned that the area is likely to experience repeated volcanic outbreaks for decades, possibly even centuries.

A volcano near Iceland's capital has erupted for the seventh time in a year, spewing fountains of lava and smoke, the country's meteorological office said.

The eruption, which occurred on the Reykjanes Peninsula in south-western Iceland, also marks the volcano's tenth in three years.

It kicked off at 11:14pm local time on Wednesday and created a fissure around three kilometres long but was estimated to be considerably smaller than a previous eruption in August, the meteorological office said.

The first signs of an eruption were recorded just 45 minutes before the massive ground fissure was opened by magma forcing its way through the earth's crust.

While the eruption poses no threat to air travel, authorities warned of gas emissions across parts of the peninsula including the nearby town of Grindavík.

In a Facebook post, the office said the crack remained "the most active around its centre" while lava was spewing west and north of the volcano.

The western lava flow, moving at 300 metres per hour, had crossed the Grindavík road and approached the Njarðvíkuræð pipeline which services the area with hot water.

Two lava flows streaming out from a red, glowing gash on dark earth, and smoke billowing up from the scene

Lava spewed west and north of the volcano. (AP: Civil Protection in Iceland)

Icelandic town deserted after repeated volcanic activity

Authorities had previously warned of volcanic activity as magma accumulated beneath the Reykjanes Peninsula, where the most recent eruption ended only on September 6.

Repeated volcanic eruptions close to Grindavík — a town of 3,800 people about 50 kilometres south-west of the capital Reykjavik — have damaged infrastructure and property and forced many residents to relocate after the first evacuation orders came in December last year.

There was no indication that lava was flowing towards the town, but some 50 houses occupied by people who have returned were evacuated, the civil protection agency said in a statement.

Dark ground streaked with lava

Authorities had previously warned of volcanic activity as magma accumulated beneath the Reykjanes Peninsula. (AP: Marco di Marco)

"In the big picture, this is a bit smaller than the last eruption and the eruption that occurred in May," said Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson, a professor of geophysics who flew over the eruption with the Civil Protection agency to monitor the eruption.

"Grindavík is not in danger as it looks and it is unlikely that this crack will get any longer, although nothing can be ruled out," he said.

Eruptions to continue

After lying dormant for 800 years, the geological systems in the area reactivated in 2021 and have since erupted at rising frequency.

Lava is thrown into the air, on a dark background

Experts have warned that Reykjanes is likely to experience repeated volcanic outbreaks for decades. (AP: Marco di Marco)

Experts have warned that Reykjanes is likely to experience repeated volcanic outbreaks for decades, possibly even centuries.

Iceland, which sits above a volcanic hot spot in the North Atlantic, averages one eruption every four to five years.

The most disruptive in recent times was the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano, which spewed clouds of ash into the atmosphere and disrupted trans-Atlantic air travel for months.

ABC/wires

Who is Gautam Adani, and why has the Indian billionaire been charged over an alleged bribery scheme?

 Extract from ABC News

Indian billionaire Gautam Adani has been indicted by US prosecutors for his alleged role in a $US265 million ($407 million) bribery scheme, plunging his industrial conglomerate Adani Group deep into crisis and causing share prices to tumble.

Arrest warrants have been issued for Mr Adani and his nephew Sagar Adani and prosecutors plan to hand those warrants to foreign law enforcement officials, according to court records. 

Mr Adani is now one of the few billionaires formally accused in the US of criminal wrongdoing.

So, just how powerful is Gautam Adani? And why has he been charged?

Gautam Adani speaks at a lectern

Indian billionaire Gautam Adani has been indicted by US prosecutors. (AFP: Indranil Mukherjee)

Who is Gautam Adani?

The businessman is one of the world's most wealthy people.

He's worth $US69.8 billion ($107.1 billion), according to Forbes magazine, making him India's second-richest man.

Born to a middle-class family in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, he dropped out of school at 16 and moved to Mumbai to find work in the gem trade.

After a short stint in his brother's plastics business, he launched the flagship family conglomerate that bears his name in 1988.

He built his fortune in the coal business, with the Adani Group later growing to involve many aspects of Indian life: from making defence equipment, to building roads and selling cooking oil.

In recent years, the company has also made moves into renewable energy.

Mr Adani, 62, differs from his peers among India's mega-rich, many of whom are known for throwing lavish birthday and wedding celebrations that are later splashed across newspaper gossip pages.

A self-described introvert, he keeps a low profile and rarely speaks to the media, often sending lieutenants to front corporate events.

"I'm not a social person that wants to go to parties," he told the Financial Times in a 2013 interview.

Why has he been charged?

The indictment in New York accuses Adani Group's leadership of paying more than $US265 million ($407 million) to Indian government officials to secure lucrative contracts worth more than $US2 billion ($3 billion).

It further charges Mr Adani and seven other officials with lying about the bribery in order to raise capital from international investors, including those in the United States.

The indictment accuses Mr Adani of personally meeting with an Indian government official to "advance" the bribery scheme, and of meeting with other defendants to "discuss aspects of its execution".

In a statement, the conglomerate denied the charges, calling them "baseless", and said they were seeking "all possible" legal recourse.

How powerful is Gautam Adani?

Gautum Adani wields significant power and influence — both in India and globally — according to Griffith University professor Ian Hall.

"India's economy is dominated by these big groups, and Adani Group has emerged as one of the largest and most successful over the last 10 years," the veteran India analyst told the ABC.

"He wields an increasing amount of influence more broadly because of some of the projects that he's involved in.

Narendra Modi waves his hand as he stands on a staircase wearing a white vest.

Mr Adani is considered a close associate of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. (Reuters: Adnan Abidi)

"Projects like like the ports and shipping businesses are strategically important, in themselves, but also in an era where there's competition going on between China and the United States and other players over things like supply chains.

"To have an actor like Adani in that particular space makes him politically important, even beyond the connections that he has with the Indian government."

How close is he to India's prime minister, Narendra Modi? 

Mr Adani is considered a close associate of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, even offering the leader the use of a private company jet during the 2014 election campaign that swept him to power.

Opposition parties and other critics have long claimed their relationship helped him to unfairly win business and avoid proper oversight.

He's still very close to Mr Modi, according to Professor Hall, after initially establishing a relationship when the Indian prime minister was the chief minister of Gujarat.

"They worked together so that he could assist the BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party] in Modi's campaigns and finance some of that," he said.

"And in return, if you like, he got all the things that go with being close to politicians: access to information, sometimes access to things like loans, and so on."

Mr Adani also owns several media businesses, such as New Delhi Television (NDTV), which shifted strongly to support the Modi government following its takeover. The network was previously considered one of the few media outlets willing to criticise Mr Modi.

"His media outlets are very pro-government, pro-Modi, pro-BJP," Professor Hall said.

How will Modi's government respond? 

Narendra Modi's government has yet to comment on the charges but a spokesman for his ruling party, Amit Malviya, said the indictment appeared to implicate opposition parties rather than his own. 

"Don't get needlessly excited," Malviya wrote on X.

UNSW Associate Professor Mark Humphery-Jenner, an expert in corporate finance and law, says the charges pose a unique political challenge for Narendra Modi.

"In almost any other circumstance, if someone is alleged to have engaged in wide-scale bribery, and alleged to have engaged in widespread securities fraud, that should be a relatively standard case where you could extradite them," he told The World.

"However, because Gautam Adani is so close to Narendra Modi … it's certainly going to be a diplomatic headache."

What are Adani's interests in Australia?

The Adani Group's Australian subsidiary, Bravus, owns Central Queensland's Carmichael coalmine, one of the most contentious mining projects in Australian history.

Close-up of Stop Adani signs held by protesters.

Stop Adani signs held by environmental activists at a protest in Sydney in 2018.    (AAP: Joel Carrett)

Since its approval a decade ago, it has generated strong community opposition over impacts on the Great Barrier Reef and groundwater, and its carbon emissions.

It sparked years of "Stop Adani" protests from concerned environmental activists.

Bravus also owns and operates the North Queensland Export Terminal near Bowen, and the Rugby Run solar farm near Moranbah.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk shakes hands with Adani Group chairman Gautam Adani

Then-Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk with Gautam Adani in 2016. (AAP)

Has Adani Group faced scrutiny before?

Last year, a bombshell report from US investment firm Hindenburg Research claimed Adani Group had engaged in a "brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades".

Hindenburg said a pattern of "government leniency towards the group" stretching back decades had left investors, journalists, citizens and politicians unwilling to challenge its conduct "for fear of reprisal".

The US firm is known as a short-seller, a term for Wall Street traders that bet that prices of certain stocks will fall, and it had made such investments in relation to Adani Group.

The conglomerate denied wrongdoing and characterised the report as a "calculated attack on India" but lost $150 billion in market capitalisation in the weeks after the report's release.

Mr Adani saw his own net worth plunge by $60 billion over the same period.

But Professor Hall said that after the Hindenburg accusations were denied Adani Group had been able to move on.

"Post-Hindenburg and post-election, they bounce back because [Mr Adani] has proved to be able to make shareholder value and make profit.

"There's no shortage of investors within India and outside that would be willing to back his business."

How will India react to the charges?

Like the Hindenburg claims, the fraud allegations will cause controversy and scandal in India, according to Professor Hall.

"It will be met with lots of nodded heads amongst those who believe that Adani is up to no good," he said.

"There will be lots of people, though, who will be deeply offended, and will suggest that the United States is trying to slow India's rise or have a go at the Modi government."

None of the multiple defendants in the case, including Mr Adani, are in custody, but India's opposition Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi said the businessman should now be arrested.

A close up image of Rahul Gandhi, seated at a press conference, in front of two microphones.

Rahul Gandhi claims Narendra Modi will "protect" Gautam Adani while he faces US charges. (Reuters: Priyanshu Singh)

"We demand that Adani be immediately arrested," Mr Gandhi told reporters in New Delhi.

"But we know that won't happen as Modi is protecting him.

"Modi can't act even if he wants to, because he is controlled by Adani," the politician said.

Could Donald Trump's presidency change things?

According to Professor Hall, one aspect of the scandal that's been largely overlooked is the effect on bilateral relations between the US and India, which at the moment are strained due to an alleged murder plot of a Sikh separatist on US soil.

Another related dimension is the upcoming presidency of Donald Trump, which could impact Mr Adani's charges, Professor Hall said. 

He said it remained to be seen whether Mr Trump would pressure the US Department of Justice to drop the charges against Mr Adani, and other charges related to former Indian intelligence officials.

"There's definitely a hope in Delhi that some of these charges could be made to to go away, potentially, because of the political relationship between Modi and Trump.

"And that that's a proposition that's yet to be tested."

ABC/wires