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MAHATMA GANDHI ~ Truth never damages a cause that is just.
Thursday, 19 January 2017
2016 hottest year ever recorded – and scientists say human activity to blame
2016 was the hottest year on record, setting a new high for the third year in a row, with scientists firmly putting the blame on human activities that drive climate change.
The final data for 2016 was released on Wednesday by the three key agencies – the UK Met Office and Nasa and Noaa in the US – and showed 16 of the 17 hottest years on record have been this century.
Direct temperature measurements stretch back to 1880, but scientific research indicates the world was last this warm about 115,000 years ago and that the planet has not experienced such high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for 4m years.
In 2016, global warming delivered scorching temperatures around the
world. The resulting extreme weather means the impacts of climate change
on people are coming sooner and with more ferocity than expected,
according to scientists.
The natural El Niño climate phenomenon, which helped ramp up temperatures to “shocking” levels in early 2016, has now waned, but carbon emissions were the major factor and will continue to drive rising heat.
Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space
Studies, said: “El Niño was a factor this year, but both 2015 and 2016
would have been records even without it.” He said about 90% of the
warming signal in 2016 was due to rising greenhouse gas emissions. He
expects 2017 to be another extremely hot year.
The new data shows the Earth has now risen about 1.1C above the
levels seen before the industrial revolution, when large-scale fossil
fuel burning began. This brings it perilously close to the 1.5C target
included as an aim of the global climate agreement signed in Paris in December 2015.
The declaration of 2016 as a year of record-breaking heat comes just
ahead of the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president. Trump has
called global warming a hoax and is filling his administration with climate change deniers and former ExxonMobil boss Rex Tillerson. Tillerson said recently that climate change does exist but that the ability to predict the effects of greenhouse gas emissions is “very limited”, a statement most climate scientists would reject.
Trump’s team has said it will strip away funding for “politically correct environmental monitoring”.
Presenting the 2016 temperature data, Derek Arndt, at Noaa, said only:
“We present this assessment for the benefit of the American people.”
The
three temperature records are independent but reached very similar
conclusions. “The datasets are all singing the same song, said Arndt.
The data from Noaa
showed a run of 16 successive months from May 2015 to August 2016 when
the global average temperature broke or equalled previous records, while
no land area experienced an annual average temperature in 2016 that was
cooler than 20th-century average.
Noaa also found Arctic sea ice fell to its lowest annual average
extent on record and Antarctic sea ice to the second smallest extent on
record. The warming in the Arctic in 2016 was “astounding”, Schmidt said.
Prof Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State
University, said: “The spate of record-warm years that we have seen in
the 21st century can only be explained by human-caused climate change.
The effect of human activity on our climate is no longer subtle. It’s
plain as day, as are the impacts – in the form of record floods,
droughts, superstorms and wildfires – that it is having on us and our
planet.”
“While there may be some cost in mitigating climate change, there are
already major costs in damages,” said Prof Kevin Trenberth, a scientist
at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, who estimates the
costs as already tens of billions of dollars a year. “Yet if sensible
approaches are implemented in the right way for [cutting emissions] and
building resilience, the increases in energy efficiency can actually
make it a net gain, not only for the planet for for everyone.”
Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on
Climate Change at the London School of Economics, said: “Any politician
who denies this evidence from world-class climate scientists will be
wilfully turning a blind eye to rising risks that threaten the lives and
livelihoods of their citizens.
“I hope that president-elect Trump and his team in particular will
acknowledge and act on this important scientific information.”
Watch a video to show the rise in temperatures
The head of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Petteri Taalas, said in November:
“The extra heat from the powerful El Niño event has disappeared. The
heat from global warming will continue. Because of climate change, the
occurrence and impact of extreme events has risen. ‘Once in a
generation’ heatwaves and flooding are becoming more regular.”
A
WMO report said human-induced global warming had contributed to at
least half the extreme weather events studied in recent years, with the
risk of extreme heat increasing by 10 times in some cases.
The record-smashing temperatures in 2016 led to searing heatwaves
across the year: a new high of 42.7C (108.9F) was recorded in Pretoria,
South Africa in January; Mae Hong Son in Thailand saw 44.6C (112.3F) on
28 April; Phalodi in India reached 51.0C (123.8F) in May, and Mitribah in Kuwait recorded 54.0C (129.2F) in July. Warm oceans saw coral mortality of up to 50% in parts of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef and bleaching of 75% of Japan’s biggest reef.
The level of CO2 in the atmosphere also broke records in 2016, with May seeing the highest monthly value yet – 407.7 ppm – at Mauna Loa, in Hawaii, the site of the longest-running measurements dating back to 1958.
Global carbon emissions have barely grown in the last three years, after decades of strong growth, according to an analysis published in November. The main reason is China burning less coal,
but CO2 is still being emitted into the atmosphere at record levels.
“CO2 will continue to rise and cause the planet to warm until emissions
are cut down to near zero,” said Prof Corinne Le Quéré at the University
of East Anglia.
Global warning: a live digital event, Thursday 19 January, 7am GMT
Amid fears Donald Trump’s administration will shatter decades of
hard-won progress on climate change, the Guardian, Univision and Tumblr
are uniting to deliver 24 hours of live coverage from around the world
on what is at stake. Hours from Trump taking power, we will be reporting
from all seven continents, in English and Spanish, hearing from those
most affected, and finding out how we can all help protect the planet.
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