Extract from ABC News
By Sophie Meixner and wires
Former US president Donald Trump has been acquitted in his Senate impeachment trial on the charge of "incitement of insurrection".
Trump did not take the stand during the five-day hearing, but released a statement after the verdict labelling the proceeding "the greatest witch hunt in the history of our country".
But could Trump now face criminal charges or a censure trial? Where are state and local investigations into his conduct up to? And is he free to run again in 2024?
Let's run through the potential scenarios of what could happen now.
Will Trump face federal charges?
Despite voting to acquit, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell issued a scathing rebuke of Trump's actions immediately after the verdict.
Buried within these comments was what many interpreted as a signal McConnell believed Trump could face criminal prosecution for his actions.
"President Trump is still liable for everything he did while he was in office as an ordinary citizen," McConnell said.
It's true that, in theory, the federal Department of Justice (DoJ) could pursue a case against Trump.
For instance, section 2383 of the US code makes it a federal offence to "incite, set on foot, assist, or engage in any rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States".
But in practice, a federal charge would involve a tough political battle and even tougher legal obstacles.
On the political front, opening a DoJ investigation is at the discretion of the Attorney General.
President Joe Biden has given no indication he has any desire whatsoever in pursuing this route and reportedly hopes to avoid it, but said last year he would leave any decision to an independent DoJ.
Biden maintained a firm distance from the impeachment trial, with press secretary Jen Psaki saying his full schedule prevented him from watching much of the proceedings.
On a legal level, landmark Supreme Court decision Brandenburg v Ohio — referenced frequently by Trump's attorneys during the impeachment trial — gives Trump expansive First Amendment free speech defences during a criminal trial, rendering a conviction unlikely.
What about political censure?
Censure is a formal condemnation of a public official's behaviour.
Technically, a former president can still be censured, according to constitutional scholars.
The bar would be lower than with impeachment, requiring just 60 Senate votes, meaning 10 Republicans would need to flip — only three more than the seven that voted to convict in the impeachment trial.
But a censure would be a purely symbolic gesture and would not prevent Trump from holding office again.
While the American Broadcasting Corporation earlier reported some Democrats viewed censure as the 'better than nothing' option, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has now conclusively ruled the option out.
What's this about the 14th Amendment?
Section 3 of the 14th Amendment says no-one can hold office if they've engaged in "insurrection or rebellion" against the United States.
It's a lesser known section of the constitution that's rarely used, but experts say it could be dusted off if the Senate doesn't convict again.
Experts say it's unlikely — but not impossible — it will be invoked against Trump.
OK then, what about charges on a state or local level?
This is where investigations are underway and charges are potentially more likely.
There are already two criminal investigations into Trump happening at the state level.
One of those in Georgia relates to Trump pressuring Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger via a now-infamous phone call to overturn the election results.
New York state is broadening an ongoing investigation of Trump, honing in on allegations of financial crimes in Trump's many business ventures.
On a local level, there are already dozens of lawsuits in the works, as well as at least two known criminal investigations related to his business dealings.
So, does all of the above prevent Trump from running again?
The answer remains unclear, simply because all of this is so unprecedented.
At this stage, Trump is currently eligible to run for President in 2024.
He has repeatedly hinted at a 2024 run, including at a White House dinner in December where he remarked: "It's been an amazing four years. We're trying to do another four years. Otherwise, I'll see you in four years."
In his statement following the acquittal today, he remarked: "In the months ahead I have much to share with you, and I look forward to continuing our incredible journey together".
But if we introduce the hypothetical that Trump is convicted of some kind of felony, and then wants to run, what happens then?
Certain kinds of felonies, including the federal insurrection felony mentioned in the US Code above, contain a penalty of prison time and render the perpetrator "incapable of holding any office under the United States".
As outlined above, so does the 14th Amendment, if that path is invoked.
There's no overarching federal law banning felons from running for office, but there are a few state laws that might prevent a convicted presidential candidate from appearing on the ballot, or having a genuine chance of winning.
What will happen to the seven Republicans who voted to convict?
All but seven Republicans voted to acquit Trump of the incitement charge.
But it's unlikely the seven outliers will form any kind of anti-Trump power bloc among the Republican Party, with two not standing for re-election.
Senator Bill Cassidy has already been censured by his own Republican branch in Louisiana, which again amounts to a largely symbolic gesture.
Could disgruntled Republicans start a third party?
More than 120 Republicans — including former elected officials, former administrators under Trump and former presidents Ronald Reagan, George H W Bush and George W Bush, met earlier in February to discuss forming a third party or a new centre-right faction.
However, Reuters reports a potential third centre-right party would face steep challenges in shaking up a system that has favoured two-party rule throughout its history.
Two prominent anti-Trump Republicans in Congress, Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, have rejected the idea of a breakaway party.
Other Republican critics of Trump expressed similar skepticism, arguing a third party would accomplish little beyond splitting the votes of conservatives and helping Democrats get elected.
ABC/wires
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