Extract from ABC News
Analysis
By political editor Andrew Probyn
Scott Morrison has a man problem. Sixteen of them, to be precise.
They are the 16 men in the 22-strong Federal Cabinet over whom hang an allegation of a horrible crime, outlined in an anonymous letter sent to the Prime Minister.
One of them is accused of a horrific 1988 rape of a 16-year-old but until he is identified, all 16 live under a cloud of broader public suspicion.
This is the political conundrum at the heart of the Prime Minister's man problem that threatens to tumble the scandal over parliamentary culture into a full-blown Cabinet crisis.
And until this is somehow resolved, Morrison's oft-spoken-about "woman problem" only worsens — a woman problem that's undeniably contributed to Liberal MP Nicolle Flint quitting politics in disgust at the toxic treatment of women in Canberra.
A woman problem some Liberals fear will further discourage women from pursuing a political career. A woman problem that hasn't been remedied by any of Morrison's efforts to promote women.
For now, the Morrison Government argues that the minister in question must be afforded natural justice. It points to 7.1 of the ministerial code which states that "a Minister should stand aside if that Minister becomes the subject of an official investigation of alleged illegal or improper conduct."
One prime ministerial aide argues there is no official police investigation, in South Australia, NSW or federally, nor has a minister been charged.
Liberal strategists might have already calculated that the prospect of prosecution is remote in any case, given the complainant took her own life in June last year, aged 49.
But other senior coalition folk wonder if a wait-it-out strategy is politically tenable in the long run, especially after the past fortnight of sleaze, shame and self-reflection.
They question whether the Government can sustain resistance against calls for an independent inquiry.
Some in Labor suggest the Coalition might fight fire with fire, that historical claims of sexual assault against a senior Labor figure might be revisited.
But this wouldn't help Morrison, whose acknowledgement of significant cultural problems in the Parliament and his party requires action that restores the Coalition's reputation.
In the wake of former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins's explosive claim of rape by a colleague in the office of a minister in 2019, the PM has set himself the task of rebuilding female faith in federal politics.
He urged MPs and senators to heed the guidance of Australian Federal Police Commissioner Reece Kershaw by referring allegations of sexual assault and other serious offences to the police "without delay".
The ABC understands that the AFP Commissioner had already received — by email earlier that day — the anonymous complaint of rape against the Federal Minister.
Express mail envelopes containing a 31-page dossier outlining the allegation — including the complainant's statement to her solicitor, excerpts of her 1988 diary and a photograph from the time — had also arrived at the offices of the Prime Minister, Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young and Labor Senate Leader Penny Wong on Wednesday too, although neither Wong nor Hanson-Young opened the envelope until Friday morning.
Whether the tone of Commissioner Kershaw's letter to the PM was influenced by the historical allegation of rape against a Cabinet minister cannot be tested, but his letter to the PM went on:
The Prime Minister's Office cited this last paragraph when comment was sought on Friday about the rape allegations levelled at one of his Cabinet Ministers, as if it were a shield.
But Commissioner Kershaw wasn't simply criticising the use of media, as much as any hardened copper resents the Fourth Estate getting the scoop.
The AFP, it's understood, had become alarmed that the bevy of inquiries announced by the PM in the wake of the Higgins allegation was obscuring the preferred path for complaints: straight to police.
Which, according to one Liberal, puts Morrison's criticism of Linda Reynolds into sharper perspective.
The PM says he's disappointed Reynolds never informed him of Brittany Higgins's complaint but at the same time says he would have handled the allegation the same if he'd been in Reynolds's place, which is an insight into his instinct for political management.
So how does Cabinet function from here on, Liberals are asking?
"Linda copped it for not telling Morrison there'd been an alleged rape in her office, he finds himself in a similar situation," one male Liberal said.
"Now he has knowledge of an alleged rape by a Cabinet colleague, what is he going to do about [it] and how does he see his moral obligation?
For a Prime Minister urging his party towards a new compact with women, this is a perilous moment.
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