Extract from ABC News
By Jill Colgan in Washington DC
Walking on eggshells, playing for time. That's how political scholar Elaine Kamarck sums up the mindset of Republican senators, sitting in judgement of former US president Donald Trump at his coming impeachment trial.
The former president is the first to be impeached twice by the US House of Representatives and now faces a second trial in the Senate, accused of inciting an insurrection at the US Capitol on January 6.
The Senate needs a two-thirds majority to convict Mr Trump, which would require 17 Republicans to break ranks and join with all 50 Democrats to vote for a conviction.
But rather than a rebellion, Ms Kamarck, who is the director of the Center for Effective Public Management, expects senators to look for any reason to acquit as an escape hatch.
"This is a political calculation on a day-to-day basis," she said.
"They will likely choose the path of least resistance. The only surprise will be how many Republicans actually vote for a conviction."
Ms Kamarck says many Republicans, especially those senators facing re-election next year, fear a backlash from the Trump-supporting right wing of their party.
Out of office and silenced on social media, the former president has shown he still wields control over the futures of Republicans in Congress.
His influence has already been felt by the 10 House Republicans who voted with Democrats in January to impeach Mr Trump.
Many have faced retaliation.
Republicans who spoke out face backlash
Republican House member Adam Kinzinger is one of those who voted to impeach, and says many supporters have abandoned him.
"It's really difficult," the Illinois congressman told NBC's Meet the Press.
Seven of the 10 Republicans, including Mr Kinzinger, are already facing challenges from within their party for their seats in next year's House elections,.
One challenger's campaign committee is bluntly named "Impeach Adam Kinzinger 2022".
"I've gotten a certified letter twice from the same people disowning me and saying I'm possessed by the devil," Mr Kinzinger said.
He's taken the gamble of digging in, betting his political future on harnessing enough discontent within the Republican Party to survive his primary race next year, before facing a Democrat in the general election.
There was a rare spark of defiance from senior Republicans immediately after the January 6 Capitol riots, which ended in six deaths and left more than 140 police officers injured.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell accused Mr Trump of provoking the mob and feeding them "lies". Even Trump loyalist Lindsey Graham said: "Count me out, enough is enough."
But the revolt was short-lived. Within days, Senator Graham was back to highlighting Mr Trump's importance to the Republican Party.
"I want to make sure that the Republican Party can grow and come back, and we're going to need Trump and Trump needs us," he told reporters.
The fear of a primary challenge
A new term in Congress only started in January, but members are already fixated on their races next year.
All House seats and a third of the Senate will be in play next year, with Republicans defending the bulk of those Senate seats — 20 out of the 34.
One professional political fundraiser told the ABC that virtual fundraising events were already underway for primary races to be held in mid-2022.
The primaries will give Republican voters a chance to decide which member of their party will face off against the Democratic contender in the general election.
The harder the member has to fight in the primary, the more money they burn through and the less they'll have to spend on their general race against Democrats.
Increasing their peril, several senior Republican senators are calling it quits, deciding not to seek re-election and leaving their seats up for grabs in crucial swing states.
There's concern more may follow, given the hostile divisions in their party.
Republicans grapple with the Trump void
Elaine Kamarck argues there are still 16 newly re-elected Republican senators, including Senator McConnell, who could exert their independence from Mr Trump without fear of retribution, safe in their six-year terms until 2026.
The problem, she says, is that they're frozen in place by the leadership void left in Mr Trump's wake.
"Right now, nobody knows who is the boss of the Republican Party. Nobody knows," Ms Kamarck said.
Instead, she says members are playing for time, waiting to see whether the former president retains his influence, especially as he faces mounting legal and financial challenges.
"The range of possibilities for Mr Trump is greater than I've ever seen before — ranging from jail to leader of the party and the nominee for president in the 2024 race," she said.
Some senators are exploring presidential runs in 2024 and would benefit from Mr Trump being cast out of contention if he were impeached and then banned from holding office again.
But they risk losing the party base that voted for Trump in last year's election if they cross him.
The Republican leadership also has a vested interest in playing to all sides of their party.
Republican leader in the House Kevin McCarthy, and Mr McConnell in the Senate, see a chance of winning back their chambers from the Democrats — and the powerful jobs they'd inherit along with it.
All eyes on Mitch McConnell's next move
The outcome of the impeachment trial will tell Americans which side of the debate Republicans plan to embrace: A return to traditional conservativism, or remaining the party of Mr Trump.
Mr Kinzinger has launched a campaign called 'Country First' to try and turn Republicans away from Mr Trump, and says his party is long overdue for a reckoning after losing its moral authority.
"Republicans must say 'enough is enough'. It's time to unplug the outrage machine, reject the politics of personality and cast aside the conspiracy theories and the rage," he said.
"This party has got some real internal soul searching to do in terms of how it wants to define itself going forward vis a vis Donald Trump. And I think we're seeing the beginnings of that right now."
Ms Kamarck said many Senate Republicans would be looking to Senator McConnell to signal which way he's going to vote.
"If McConnell does lead the way to voting for a conviction against Trump, it will be quite an extraordinary moment in American politics," she said.
If Trump is convicted, Republicans could rid themselves of a divisive leader who lost the presidency after one term, and helped put his party in the minority in the House and Senate.
But signs indicate that's unlikely.
Just weeks ago, 45 of the 50 Republican senators voted to end the trial before it began, claiming it to be unconstitutional. Among them was Senator McConnell.
The battle for the soul of the Grand Old Party
If Republicans remain fearful of opposing Mr Trump, they face being caught in the same cycle of mute obedience that preceded the January 6 Capitol riot.
Mr Trump's "Stop the Steal" campaign was in full swing as he levelled evidence-free claims the election had been stolen from him and that Republicans were complicit in the election fraud.
Republican leaders were silent for fear of provoking the then-president as they headed into two key Senate races in Georgia, which would decide the balance of power in the Senate.
It was a stark lesson, with Republicans losing both races and the Senate.
The very next day was January 6 and the storming of the Capitol in Washington.
The impeachment charge stemming from the Capitol riot is an extraordinary allegation: That a sitting US president fomented a violent uprising against his own government.
Scenes of the violence last month are still fresh in American minds, and Democrats will use videos and witnesses to fully replay those events at the trial.
The Democrats' impeachment managers had requested that Mr Trump testify in person — a move blocked by his lawyers.
But even before the trial opens, Republicans are urging the public to move on, calling the case against the former president "vindictive".
If the Senate does not vote to convict, it will deliver a victory to Mr Trump.
It would also be a boost to his most fervent supporters and dispel the notion that the 45th president's departure from the White House would break his grip on his party.
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