Extract from The Guardian
Recent polling has government MPs nervous, with worrying trends in key states. Here’s where the swings matter most.
Last modified on Sat 10 Apr 2021 07.05 AEST
Out of the 6,500 or so words uttered in Scott Morrison’s snap press conference announcing changes to Australia’s troubled vaccine rollout, one thing was crystal clear. Australia wouldn’t be heading to the polls for at least a year.
Morrison has repeatedly said he’s a “full termer” and has no plans of calling an election any time soon. It may be one of the few pledges he can keep.
A drop in the polls – largely due to the government’s manmade “women issues” combined with backbencher woes – had already left the Coalition teetering on the edge of minority government, making many MPs nervous.
The abrupt change in the government’s vaccine fortunes – once thought so golden that announcements came attached with Liberal party branding – turned nervous into anxious on Friday.
But if an hour seems a long time in politics lately, a year is almost an eternity. For the government, the campaign has already begun, and the Coalition is starting from behind.
Analysis of the past three months’ Newspoll results shows swings against the government in key states – Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia – which, if applied uniformly, would mean the loss of more than 10 seats.
Tasmania, never a sure bet for either party, is also looking shaky, despite the state Labor opposition’s own issues including with cut-through.
Swings are rarely applied uniformly – an MP’s local popularity means they can maintain a seat even if the overall vote shifts nationally – but can provide guidance regarding the public mood.
Strategists will tell you the one thing ruling political parties never want is for people to be thinking about government. If the bulk of the population has to think about what the government is doing, it is usually because something has gone wrong.
That leads to voter anger and frustration and an eventual switching off – meaning messages no longer cut through. It’s what happened in 2007 when the Howard government fizzled to its end; to the Newman government after just one term in Queensland; and to the Rudd-Gillard governments which preceded the past three Liberal prime ministers.
Newspoll – the main opinion poll the government pays attention to, which is always first published by News Corp – has not painted a reassuring picture of late for the Coalition. It’s been mirrored in the Guardian Essential polls.
So let’s take a look at where the swings matter most.
Queensland
The two-party preferred (TPP) vote in Queensland shows a drop from 58.44% at the 2019 election to 53%, the Newspoll analysis shows. If that swing eventuated at the next election, Dickson (Peter Dutton), Brisbane (Trevor Evans), Leichhardt (Warren Entsch) and Longman (Terry Young) would all be in doubt.
Labor wants more – Forde remains one of its target seats, along with Flynn, where the hope rests on a wildly popular local mayor candidate.
But ultimately, when it comes to Queensland, just improving the primary vote is the main goal of the opposition – along with ensuring it wins two Senate spots.
Western Australia
The swing against the government is, at this stage, even bigger in Western Australia, where the state Liberal party has been reduced to just two seats in the lower house, and federally, its remaining big names – Christian Porter and Linda Reynolds – are less visible and unlikely to be used to garner party support.
The TPP has moved from the election high of 55.55% at the last election, to 47% in the last quarter – a swing of 8.55%. Stirling (held by Vince Connelly) has already been earmarked for abolishment by the AEC, but Swan, held by Steve Irons, Ken Wyatt’s seat of Hasluck and Porter’s seat of Pearce would be lost if the anti-Liberal mood was applied uniformly.
Labor has been hoping for at least two more seats in WA. It’s hoping some of Mark McGowan’s local magic will rub off, but is more focused on the Liberal brand having taken a hit (the WA Nationals do not hold any federal seats).
Both Queensland and Western Australia remain crucial to the government’s re-election prospects – the resource states are the only two jurisdictions the federal government has won a majority of electorates for the last two elections.
South Australia
The Liberal premier, Steven Marshall, looks to be the first Covid leader in trouble at an election, and the Coalition’s vote has dropped 4.29% to 45% in the last few months. That puts Boothby, where Nicolle Flint has already announced her plans to step down at the next election, in the picture.
Rest of the nation
The rest of the nation is pretty much a zero-sum game, although Tasmania, the current focus of politicos with the north once again showing signs of electoral moodiness, could mean Bass is a potential Labor gain. Labor is also eyeing off Braddon again, but risks losing Lyons. The Northern Territory, where Labor holds both seats, isn’t expected to change.
The national swing against the Coalition since the last election – 1.53% – takes the 51.53% of votes won after preferences were awarded to 49%.
Labor holds 47% of NSW’s electorates, with the Coalition losing ground to independents who look to have developed strong footholds in the last term. Labor also holds more seats in Victoria than the Coalition, but neither state is expected to offer up too many surprises at the coming election. Which leaves the focus on Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and South Australia – all known for their electoral volatility.
The polls provide no more than a rough roadmap of trouble spots. The problem for the Coalition is, right now, there are a lot of them.
It held onto government in 2019 with a slim majority – winning just one seat above the needed majority of 76. Since then, it has lost Craig Kelly to the crossbench and risks losing his seat of Hughes to an independent come the next election. Queensland’s Andrew Laming has also created an issue, with the LNP losing an incumbent with a controversial and combative local history, at a time when voter forgiveness seems low.
The Liberals’ wobbles have also caused side-eyeing in the National party, which had been counting on Morrison’s popularity to make up for the relative blandness of its leader, Michael McCormack.
McCormack’s lack of cut-through has kept Barnaby Joyce in the picture as a potential leadership hopeful, with the New England MP refusing to admit defeat.
Joyce, according to at least five National party members familiar with the situation, has not wanted to hand over his party room numbers – five or so on a good day – to McCormack’s most serious challenger, David Littleproud. If the parliamentary party moves on from McCormack to a fresh leadership face, like Littleproud, it also moves on from Joyce, at least from a leadership point of view. But ructions in the National party room also depend on Morrison’s popularity. Without a strong Liberal leader, a strong Nationals leader becomes crucial. Joyce held the Nationals ground in 2016, despite the Coalition losing 14 seats under Malcolm Turnbull, but it was Morrison who kept the Nationals steady in 2019.
No one should be predicting the outcome of the next election, or making assumptions as to what will happen in terms of either leader’s popularity. A year under these circumstances may as well be a decade in terms of political life. Labor would need to win eight seats to take government – a huge undertaking – and Morrison has consistently remained more popular as a prime ministerial choice than Anthony Albanese.
Given Bill Shorten oversaw consistent two-party preferred poll wins for Labor, while suffering terminal personal popularity ratings, and then lost the so-called unlosable election, Morrison’s popularity is being used as a calming blanket for jumpy government MPs.
Labor, on the other hand, has been looking at another measure when it comes to Albanese – the number of undecideds. Unlike Shorten, there is still a group of voters, about 15% or so, who have not made up their mind yet about the Labor leader.
Albanese doesn’t inspire overwhelmingly strong reactions in either direction. One strategist called it the ‘meh factor’, which they believe is a lot easier to overcome than ‘can’t stand them’.
And Labor doesn’t want to put Albanese, or even its policy, front and centre. It wants the next election to focus on Morrison. Instead of alternative policies, the campaign from Labor, and activist groups such as GetUp, has centred the spotlight on Morrison himself.
Putting the PM front and centre is not an unexpected move by the Coalition, as it borrows from the campaign playbook it has used, successfully, many times in the past. The issue for the Coalition is this time around, the weight of expectation rests with a leader who is fighting multiple battles at once. The Morrison government has been shaped by its leader, not its cabinet. And Morrison, who gladly wore the shine for the government’s successes, is now finding himself tarred by its failures.
No comments:
Post a Comment