Tuesday 22 June 2021

Barnaby Joyce's return puts Scott Morrison in an awkward position.

Extract from ABC News

Analysis

By political correspondent Brett Worthington

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Barnaby Joyce ducks under Scott Morrison, who is on a screen appearing in Question Time virtually
Barnaby Joyce will sit in Scott Morrison's chair while the PM is in quarantine.

Parliaments rarely rise to their feet to offer a round of applause.

It's a tribute typically saved for visiting foreign leaders or retiring politicians — not deposed leaders likely headed to the backbench.

But you could be forgiven for being blissfully unaware of that at 2:00pm yesterday.Michael McCormack shakes hands with Anthony Albanese.

Michael McCormack shakes hands with Anthony Albanese after losing the National Party leadership.
(ABC News: Matt Roberts)

Dumped Nationals leader Michael McCormack, who remained the nation's deputy prime minister until his predecessor-cum-successor Barnaby Joyce was sworn in on Tuesday, had the unenviable task of having been sacked by his party only to have to sit in the Prime Minister's chair come Question Time.

Question after question, he valiantly championed the government's agenda, as Joyce watched on from the backbench, where former leaders typically go to lick their wounds following defeat.

Even further away was the Prime Minister, who was participating in the Parliament from quarantine at the Lodge, having last week returned from his trip abroad.

"Que sera, sera," McCormack offered as he ended his last Question Time in charge, prompting applause from across the chamber.

The change leaves the Coalition with its sixth PM and deputy PM combination since coming to power in 2013.

And it has Scott Morrison set to emerge from his lockdown facing renewed battles on climate change and the government's treatment of women — and with his Coalition partner.Play Video. Duration: 8 minutes 28 seconds

Barnaby Joyce says he hopes to give the Nationals the best chance of winning at the next election.

A party paralysed by personalities, not policies

"The most important thing that this is about, first and foremost, is the people of Australia," Joyce offered after his victory.

But at the weekend, it was the people of the party room who were the focus.

There were offers of ministries and promotions in return for allegiances.

It's always about "self-interest", one in the party offered of how MPs and senators would vote.

Others despaired that the Nats were again in the headlines talking about themselves. 

This was a party that after eight years in power had forgotten how precious time in government was, they privately complained to the ABC. Time in power was being wasted carving up fiefdoms for individual advancement. 

At the core of the dispute was a party bitterly divided over personalities, not policies.

"People aren't dissatisfied with what I'm doing as Deputy Prime Minister, they want my job," McCormack told Nine ahead of the vote.

When Joyce was pressed on what policies his leadership would look to change, he talked about his "attributes" but not the agenda he would seek to stamp on the government.

"It's not Barnaby policy, it's Nationals' policy," the new leader told the media.Play Video. Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds

Michael McCormack says he respects the party's decision to oust him as leader.

Morrison in a tight spot

Agitators who have backed Joyce's return to the leadership have flagged Morrison's pledge to cut Australia's emissions to net zero preferably 2050 as a core issue he would address.

It's a policy McCormack himself doesn't support.

It's also a commitment that doesn't come with legislation so there won't be a vote in the Parliament, meaning Nats against it won't have the chance to cross the floor and vote against the government.

Irrespective of legislation, it leaves Morrison in an awkward position.

Any concession he offers to the Nats on climate change risks coming at the expense of the very people the party seeks to represents — farmers.

Australia is seeking a free trade agreement with the European Union, our second largest trading partner, a deal ever more important amid soured trading relations with China.

If Australia fails to address climate change through a net zero target and a pledge to move away from non-renewable energy sources, imports into the region are likely to face millions of dollars in new tariffs

That means Australian farmers could face higher costs to get their products to European customers.

Incumbent Nationals leader Michael McCormack with MP for Parkes, Mark Coulton.

Michael McCormack faces an uncertain future in the Parliament.
(ABC News: Matt Roberts)

Annoy the Nats too much and Morrison risks losing the support of the Coalition partner that keeps him in power.

Do it over climate change and he risks becoming yet another Australian political leader to have lost their job to the policy.

The global community expects Morrison to formalise that pledge ahead of a global climate change summit in Glasgow later this year.

It leaves the PM, marketed as a Liberal strong man who unflinchingly stared down the people smugglers, vowing to "stop the boats", now confronting a Deputy Prime Minister emboldened from a rare political second coming. 

Detractors felt McCormack was too close to Morrison and failed to have cut through to advance National policies in the broader community — two issues Joyce is likely to counter.

He's already vowed to renegotiate the secret "Coalition agreement", which oversees how the parties govern in power.

Liberals suspect the Nats want new portfolios — like trade — but insist getting that must come at a cost for the junior Coalition partner, potentially something as high profile as its beloved agriculture.

A government-funded new coal mine is likely on the Nats' wish list but sources say that's something the Prime Minister will refuse.

Joyce's return has some in Labor fearing what it will mean in regions it is fighting to either win back or retain tightly held seats in — the NSW Hunter and central Queensland.

They fear Joyce travelling to these regions might help the Coalition win back voters flirting with One Nation or the Shooters, Farmers and Fishers Party.Dr Anne Webster, member for Mallee. June 2021

Anne Webster says women have contacted her, concerned about the prospect of Barnaby Joyce returning to the top Nationals job.
(ABC News: Matt Roberts)

Women raise concerns at Joyce's return

Barnaby Joyce went to the backbench three years before a cultural reckoning would engulf the federal parliament about the treatment of women.

Though utterly unrelated, on the same day he returned to his party's top job, ACT prosecutors received a brief of evidence in the Brittany Higgins alleged rape case.

Joyce has repeatedly and categorically denied the sexual harassment allegations that cost him his job — allegations the National Party investigated but was unable to reach a finding on — however, signs are already emerging that regional women don't plan to sit silently in the wake of his promotion.

"I've had people write to me about this and some would be very unimpressed," Victorian Nationals MP Anne Webster, who backed McCormack, said before the spill.

"These are issues for Barnaby Joyce should a change occur. That would be for him to sort through."

Nationals leader-elect Barnaby Joyce with Bridget McKenzie

Bridget McKenzie and Barnaby Joyce previously served alongside each other as leader and deputy.
(ABC News: Matt Roberts)

It was his affair with a staffer that prompted then PM Malcolm Turnbull to introduce the "bonk ban", which prevents ministers from sleeping with their staff.

It leaves the government again having to navigate a constituency that feels for too many years, men in power of this country have failed to treat women appropriately.

Though one woman looks likely to be a winner from Joyce's return — his former deputy Bridget McKenzie, who has had a complicated relationship with the new leader.

She lost her job to the so-called "sports rorts" saga and has been biding her time in the year since, waiting to return to the Cabinet. 

Three people, a man on the left and centre and woman on the right walking thorugh a courtyard in a line

David Littleproud, Barnaby Joyce and Bridget McKenzie all paid tribute to Mr McCormack's leadership.
(ABC News: Matt Roberts)

A "good, honourable and decent man" is how she described McCormack in the wake of his defeat.

Barnaby Joyce has spent three years pining for a return to Australia's second highest political office. 

He's never hidden his ambition and he's been willing to speak out against McCormack's leadership.

Few expect McCormack to return that level of loyalty.

"I'm a team player," he offered after losing his job.

"I'm very loyal. I never hold grudges."

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